We are now in Year 4 of NIL impacting the NBA Draft (2021) - What have we discovered in 2024 and it's future impact

[King Ken]

What difference has it made to the NBA draft?

I'll say a massive one:

This is my senior class big board:

8 prospect with tier 4 or better grade

1. Terrance Shannon Jr. - tier 4 low-end only due to personal issues. Potentially tier 3.5.
2. Dalton Knecht - tier 4 high-end
3. Zach Edey - tier 4 low-end
4. Oso Ighodaro - tier 4 low-end
5. Kevin McCullar - tier 4 low-end
6. Dillon Jones - Unrated but likely tier 4 low-end
7. Tyler Kolek - Unrated but likely tier 4 low-end
8. Jaxson Robinson - Unrated but likely tier 4 low-end

Tier 5
9. Tristan da Silva
10. PJ Hall
11. Coleman Hawkins
12. Antonio Reeves
13. Jaylen Forbes
14. Hunter Dickerson
15. Matthew Murrell
16. Kalib Boone
17. Tyler Thomas
18. Keshad Johnson
19. Micah Peavy
20. TJ Bamba
21. LJ Cryer
22. Tristen Newton

In 1999, we witnessed the last remarkable senior class in NBA draft history. With seven first-round grades (ranging from Tier 1 to Tier 4), that class left an indelible mark. Fast forward to this year, and we have a promising group of seniors—five prospects—with a projected total of eight when considering players like Kolek, Jones, and Robinson.

The 2005 draft class also stands out, boasting four notable seniors: Frye, Graham, Granger, and Lee. However, the unexpected draft fall of Granger and Lee, despite their stellar college performances, raised eyebrows.

Tier 1 - None
Tier 2 - None
Tier 3 - None
Tier 3.5 - None

Tier 4 - High end
1 6 Wally Szczerbiak+ SG/SF United States Minnesota Timberwolves (from New Jersey) Miami (OH) (Sr.)
1 8 Andre Miller PG United States Cleveland Cavaliers (from Boston) Utah (Sr.)
1 10 Jason Terry SG/PG United States Atlanta Hawks (from Golden State) Arizona (Sr.)

Tier 4 - Mid End - None
Tier 4 - Low End - None
Tier 5 or worse - The rest

1998 Draft

Tier 1 - None
Tier 2 - None
Tier 3 - None

Tier 4 - High End
1 3 Raef LaFrentz C/F United States Denver Nuggets Kansas (Sr.) - Stud, didn't reach his potential but his prototype is still coveted today.

Tier 4 - Mid End - None

Tier 4 - Low End -
1 1 Michael Olowokandi C Nigeria Los Angeles Clippers Pacific (Sr.) - Bust but he was always a low-floor, high-ceiling prospect.
1 11 Bonzi Wells G/F United States Detroit Pistons Ball State (Sr.) - Didn't have a long prime but did get to where he was expected to go.
1 12 Michael Doleac C United States Orlando Magic Utah (Sr.) - Centers get a position bump like big wings in today's NBA. Ended up not being what was expected which was a decent 20-30 range starter at the 5 for this era.
1 13 Keon Clark F/C United States Orlando Magic (from Washington via Golden State) UNLV (Sr.) - High upside for an upperclassman.
1 14 Michael Dickerson SG United States Houston Rockets Arizona (Sr.) - Looked to be a lock to be a 10-year+ pro
1 15 Matt Harpring F/G United States Orlando Magic (from New Jersey) Georgia Tech (Sr.) - Ended up what he was expected to be.


Tier 5 steals
2 41 Cuttino Mobley SG United States Houston Rockets Rhode Island (Sr.) - Massive steal.

Undrafted Tier 5 steals
Earl Boykins PG United States Eastern Michigan (Sr.)
Anthony Carter PG United States Hawaii (Sr.)
Mike James PG United States Duquesne (Sr.)
Brad Miller+ C United States Purdue (Sr.)

Tier 5 - The rest

What’s different now? The drafts of today are significantly stronger than those of the 2000s and '90s, largely due to the surge in talent levels driven by the international game. This year, I’ve scouted seniors more closely than ever, and it’s a revelation.

Enter the name, image, and likeness (NIL) era. Most of these talented seniors would have already left for the NBA, but the NIL has changed the game. Robinson might be the sole exception, still opting for this draft under normal circumstances. But beyond him, the majority would have departed within the last two to three years.

NIL’s impact on college basketball is massive. Quality across Power Five (P5) conferences have surged, while mid-major programs have faced regression. Small colleges, once on a growth trajectory, now appear as mere shadows of their former selves. The NIL, coupled with the transfer portal, has reshaped the landscape.

Looking ahead, the NIL will continue to shape the NBA Draft. It provides a lifeline for players who need more development time as underclassmen. No longer rushed into bad situations, these prospects can thrive. College basketball, much like college baseball, now offers real development value.

I believe the name, image, and likeness (NIL) will continue to significantly impact the NBA Draft. This is especially true for players who consistently improve as NBA prospects and need additional years of development as underclassmen. In the past, many of these talented individuals left college prematurely, often finding themselves in unfavorable situations and ultimately out of the league.

The NIL has transformed college basketball, akin to the development value seen in college baseball. It provides opportunities for players to thrive, make informed decisions, and maximize their potential. As we look ahead, the NIL’s influence on the draft process remains substantial.

The financial empowerment brought about by the name, image, and likeness (NIL) has had a profound impact on college basketball. Let’s explore how:

Access to Personal Trainers:

In the past, hiring personal trainers was a luxury reserved for elite athletes or those with substantial financial resources.
Now, with NIL opportunities, college players can afford professional trainers. This investment in their physical development accelerates their growth as basketball players.

The presence of trained professionals ensures that players receive personalized guidance, refine their skills, and optimize their performance on the court.

Enhanced Athletic Development:

The combination of financial stability and access to trainers creates a positive feedback loop. Players can focus on their game without worrying about financial constraints.

Improved physical conditioning, skill development, and basketball IQ contribute to better overall performance. As a result, college basketball has witnessed a surge in talent and competitiveness.

Shift in College Basketball Landscape:

The NIL has transformed college basketball into a realm where players actively manage their personal brands. They negotiate deals, sign endorsements, and build a fan base.

The quality of play across Power Five (P5) conferences has risen significantly. The talent pool is deeper, and fans are treated to exciting matchups.

In essence, the NIL has turned college basketball into a dynamic ecosystem where athletes thrive both on and off the court.
Indeed, this shift is monumental for the future of college basketball, and its impact will resonate for years to come.


For those who aren't familiar with my tiers:

Tiers:

Tier 1: Elite Cornerstone Prospect: Greg Oden, Zion Williamson, LeBron James, Kevin Durant

Tier 2: Tier 2: All-Star potential – Ja Morant, Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, Luka Doncic (yeah, I got that one wrong), Carmelo Anthony, R.J. Barrett, DeAndre Ayton, AD, Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, Kyrie, O.J. Mayo (I know, don’t ask), KAT, etc.

Tier 3: All-Star Possibilities – Mikal Bridges, Bradley Beal, Victor Oladipo, James Harden, Hasheem Thabeet(bustaroo), Al Horford, Dwight Howard, and Emeka Okafor. Tier 3 is difficult for me because very few guys have been on this list over the last 20+ years for me.

Tier 3.5 - Decent Role player potential with All-Star possibilities down the road. I do see these guys as Day 1 contributors to a degree. This list is massive, it includes guys like Fultz, Tatum, Brown, Garland, Rui, Cam Reddish, Bargnani, LMA, Lillard, Okafor, KP, man, so many guys. Usually, like 5-8 a year. Of course, the miss rate is high.

Tier 4 - Tier 4: Decent Role player potential or raw with AS possibilities. This is most players in the NBA. Some get a high-end tier 4 status which is like, a really good role player who usually dominated college or showcases their NBA role at a very high level with the potential to be more. Mid-tier is the higher of the tier 4s who are closer to all-star level like Podz or Bufkin. The vast majority are low-end.

Tier 5 – Backups and G-Leaguers – A lot of players.

Tier 6 – International Pros who don’t have much of a shot at the NBA.

Fact Check:

I know NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) came in July 2021 officially which was after the draft deadline, it was expected to pass many months before so schools knew in advance and it was especially important for college basketball where one player has a significant impact to your team and season.

[JMAC3]

I think how many upperclassmen higher on your board has just as much to do with how bad this class is rather than NIL.

The RSCI top 20 https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/awards/men/rsci-recruit-rankings-2023.html
might have 7 guys drafted in the first round. vs last year 15/20 were drafted.

[tester551]

I think how many upperclassmen higher on your board has just as much to do with how bad this class is rather than NIL.

Agreed.

The weak draft class has a MUCH bigger impact than the NIL. Even the upper classmen are still meh prospects.

[clyde21]

That has more to do with how crappy the OAD class is than anything else

[babyjax13]

I think we will see more second round prospects stay because NIL money is transformative and likely more reliable. As it normalizes draft quality should not be that impacted, IMO.

[King Ken]

I think how many upperclassmen higher on your board has just as much to do with how bad this class is rather than NIL.

The RSCI top 20 https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/awards/men/rsci-recruit-rankings-2023.html
might have 7 guys drafted in the first round. vs last year 15/20 were drafted.

I don't give 1st round grades just to fill spots. That's how you end up with terrible draft big boards. A strong RSCI HS class of OAD does mean a deeper and better class at the top.

[LofJ]

I agree with your larger point that NIL is going to be good for college basketball. The smart teams are going to do well targeting guys that stayed in college longer to develop. Big men especially would be doing themselves a favor if they stay in college longer unless they're in the top 5 tier like Mobley, Chet, Wembanyama, etc.

[FarBeyondDriven]

I remember a time when most top players had 3 and 4 year college careers and came into the league ready to contribute. Most of the returners that have improved their games in college likely wouldn't have been afforded the same opportunity sitting on NBA benches or in the G-League. This is allowing them to improve their draft stock and actually play once drafted so it's a good thing. The bad thing is many players will choose the same teams and hurt their draft stock enough that they won't be first round draft picks when they should have. So, there's pluses and minuses.

[165bows]

Interesting analysis - I don’t have too much to add other than a tidbit Brad Stevens said at the trade deadline after landing Jaden Springer.

He said Springer was younger than a lot of the guys they were scouting in the draft. Thought that was noteworthy as they’ve taken very young players in the draft under Stevens so far.

Will be good to watch and see how these older guys do, I was a big Jaquez guy last year and he’s been solid so far.