Official Ochai Agbaji Thread - Welcome to Toronto, Ochai!

[Yallbecrazy]

That’s a shockingly stupid opinion. Like head full of rocks stuff.

I guess math and logic are not your strong points?

lol, my strongest actually. Please explain the flaws in my statement.

You supplanted the NBA-determined market value for Ochai (14th pick) with your own using his "college" stats, without context, comparison or anything else that's relevant to scouting. NBADraft.net had him 14th in their mock (nice guess!). TheRinger had him 22nd. Saying he should have been in the 30s or 40s is just arbitrary and opposes not just his determined value, but how the consensus viewed him.

He played 20+mpg as a rookie because he has NBA starter-level skill on D, and was passable offensively. As others have stated, his path to rotation minutes is very clear - if he can shoot more consistently, he'll be a solid player in the league. He's already been a useful one bc of his defense, which is less sexy but impacts every single play.

I'm surprised Utah flipped him in his 2nd year. Often times, a player will show what they can be in year 3 right before their rookie-scale contract is up. That the 29th pick was flipped for both him and a useful 4/5 who's contributed strong value for his salary and in an area of need is just an objectively good trade.

I like Olynyk, but he was a FA so they could have just signed up with cap space and he was probably worth a early 2nd on his own to a contending team, less to us. They extended him so I don't hate the trade for that reason, but I still think it was bad value.

Agbaji was a bad pick at #14

29. Ochai Agbaji

There is so much to dislike about Agbaji. He is 22 years old and getting drafted for his spot up shooting when it is not even that obvious he can shoot. He only made 74.3% FT as a senior and 71.2% for his career. This makes it difficult to fully trust his 40.7% 3P on high volume as a senior.

Further he is a 6’5.5″ SG with mediocre feel for the game, does not create much offense for himself or teammates, and may be a significant liability on defense.

But he had really good on/off splits for the champion Jayhawks, he has decent man to man defensive abilities because of his length, strength, and athleticism, and it is possible that he is a good shooter after all.

So it wouldn’t be a shock to see him reach a basic level of usefulness, which is more than can be said for most guys still on the board this late. But it also wouldn’t be a shock to see him amount to nothing, and his upside is fairly limited.


After two years he is pretty bad on offense and overall a mediocre defender at best because his team defense is very poor and his man defense doesn't fully make up for it.
At the time of the trade his value had plummeted from #14. He was a reach then, but for arguments sake let's say he was worth a pick in the early 20s in '22 which is probably closer to the consensus than where he was actually picked. (Looking at his college stats he's the type of player I stay away from completely in the first round). He was just shy of being 24 at the time of the trade and has yet to show in two years anything that would indicate he's going to be a player of value in the NBA so his value on his own was probably at best worth a pick in the late 40s or 50s which is relatively much less than half the value of #29. It's not the NFL where 2 or 3 mid 2nd rounders can move you up into the first round.

He's not without hope, but odds are against him ever being good enough to play an impactful role for a contending team. This is exacerbated by the fact that Darko wants high IQ players for his system and that's his biggest flaw.

[RoteSchroder]

lol, my strongest actually. Please explain the flaws in my statement.

You supplanted the NBA-determined market value for Ochai (14th pick) with your own using his "college" stats, without context, comparison or anything else that's relevant to scouting. NBADraft.net had him 14th in their mock (nice guess!). TheRinger had him 22nd. Saying he should have been in the 30s or 40s is just arbitrary and opposes not just his determined value, but how the consensus viewed him.

He played 20+mpg as a rookie because he has NBA starter-level skill on D, and was passable offensively. As others have stated, his path to rotation minutes is very clear - if he can shoot more consistently, he'll be a solid player in the league. He's already been a useful one bc of his defense, which is less sexy but impacts every single play.

I'm surprised Utah flipped him in his 2nd year. Often times, a player will show what they can be in year 3 right before their rookie-scale contract is up. That the 29th pick was flipped for both him and a useful 4/5 who's contributed strong value for his salary and in an area of need is just an objectively good trade.

I like Olynyk, but he was a FA so they could have just signed up with cap space and he was probably worth a early 2nd on his own to a contending team, less to us. They extended him so I don't hate the trade for that reason, but I still think it was bad value.

Agbaji was a bad pick at #14

29. Ochai Agbaji

There is so much to dislike about Agbaji. He is 22 years old and getting drafted for his spot up shooting when it is not even that obvious he can shoot. He only made 74.3% FT as a senior and 71.2% for his career. This makes it difficult to fully trust his 40.7% 3P on high volume as a senior.

Further he is a 6’5.5″ SG with mediocre feel for the game, does not create much offense for himself or teammates, and may be a significant liability on defense.

But he had really good on/off splits for the champion Jayhawks, he has decent man to man defensive abilities because of his length, strength, and athleticism, and it is possible that he is a good shooter after all.

So it wouldn’t be a shock to see him reach a basic level of usefulness, which is more than can be said for most guys still on the board this late. But it also wouldn’t be a shock to see him amount to nothing, and his upside is fairly limited.


After two years he is pretty bad on offense and overall a mediocre defender at best because his team defense is very poor and his man defense doesn't fully make up for it.
At the time of the trade his value had plummeted from #14. He was a reach then, but for arguments sake let's say he's worth a pick in the early 20s which is probably closer to the consensus than where he was actually picked. (Looking at his college stats he's the type of player I stay away from completely in the first round). He was just shy of being 24 at the time of the trade and has yet to show in two years anything that would indicate he's going to be a player of value in the NBA. He's not without hope, but odds are against him ever being good enough to play an impactful role for a contending team. This is exacerbated by the fact that Darko wants high IQ players for his system and that's his biggest flaw.

In a re-draft, he'd probably go #22 something. Unless you can name 20-30 other players you'd take ahead of him in that draft, I don't see how you draft him in the 2nd..and that's with the advantage of knowing how all the players turn out in their first couple seasons.

If he's worth a mid-2nd in the 2024 draft, that means 45 players should turn out better than him. That would be a historic draft in terms of depth.

[Yallbecrazy]

You supplanted the NBA-determined market value for Ochai (14th pick) with your own using his "college" stats, without context, comparison or anything else that's relevant to scouting. NBADraft.net had him 14th in their mock (nice guess!). TheRinger had him 22nd. Saying he should have been in the 30s or 40s is just arbitrary and opposes not just his determined value, but how the consensus viewed him.

He played 20+mpg as a rookie because he has NBA starter-level skill on D, and was passable offensively. As others have stated, his path to rotation minutes is very clear - if he can shoot more consistently, he'll be a solid player in the league. He's already been a useful one bc of his defense, which is less sexy but impacts every single play.

I'm surprised Utah flipped him in his 2nd year. Often times, a player will show what they can be in year 3 right before their rookie-scale contract is up. That the 29th pick was flipped for both him and a useful 4/5 who's contributed strong value for his salary and in an area of need is just an objectively good trade.

I like Olynyk, but he was a FA so they could have just signed up with cap space and he was probably worth a early 2nd on his own to a contending team, less to us. They extended him so I don't hate the trade for that reason, but I still think it was bad value.

Agbaji was a bad pick at #14

29. Ochai Agbaji

There is so much to dislike about Agbaji. He is 22 years old and getting drafted for his spot up shooting when it is not even that obvious he can shoot. He only made 74.3% FT as a senior and 71.2% for his career. This makes it difficult to fully trust his 40.7% 3P on high volume as a senior.

Further he is a 6’5.5″ SG with mediocre feel for the game, does not create much offense for himself or teammates, and may be a significant liability on defense.

But he had really good on/off splits for the champion Jayhawks, he has decent man to man defensive abilities because of his length, strength, and athleticism, and it is possible that he is a good shooter after all.

So it wouldn’t be a shock to see him reach a basic level of usefulness, which is more than can be said for most guys still on the board this late. But it also wouldn’t be a shock to see him amount to nothing, and his upside is fairly limited.


After two years he is pretty bad on offense and overall a mediocre defender at best because his team defense is very poor and his man defense doesn't fully make up for it.
At the time of the trade his value had plummeted from #14. He was a reach then, but for arguments sake let's say he's worth a pick in the early 20s which is probably closer to the consensus than where he was actually picked. (Looking at his college stats he's the type of player I stay away from completely in the first round). He was just shy of being 24 at the time of the trade and has yet to show in two years anything that would indicate he's going to be a player of value in the NBA. He's not without hope, but odds are against him ever being good enough to play an impactful role for a contending team. This is exacerbated by the fact that Darko wants high IQ players for his system and that's his biggest flaw.

In a re-draft, he'd probably go #22 something. Unless you can name 20-30 other players you'd take ahead of him in that draft, I don't see how you draft him in the 2nd..and that's with the advantage of knowing how all the players turn out in their first couple seasons.

If he's worth a mid-2nd in the 2024 draft, that means 45 players should turn out better than him. That would be a historic draft in terms of depth.

That's not how value works. A player that would go #1 in a redraft is often worth more than a #1
pick unless the upcoming draft has a Lebron, Wemby, or AD in it. A player in the 20s in a redraft is near worthless in a trade. A mystery box has the potential to get a player that goes in the top 10 in a redraft and therefore has more value.

[RoteSchroder]

In a re-draft, he'd probably go #22 something. Unless you can name 20-30 other players you'd take ahead of him in that draft, I don't see how you draft him in the 2nd..and that's with the advantage of knowing how all the players turn out in their first couple seasons.

If he's worth a mid-2nd in the 2024 draft, that means 45 players should turn out better than him. That would be a historic draft in terms of depth.

That's not how value works. A player that would go #1 in a redraft is often worth more than a #1
pick unless the upcoming draft has a Lebron, Wemby, or AD in it. A player in the 20s in a redraft is near worthless in a trade. A mystery box has the potential to get a player that goes in the top 10 in a redraft and therefore has more value.

A mid-2nd round pick mystery box is worth less than a young 8/9th man.

Ochai is like investing 100 dollars hoping to get 10% interest.

A mid-2nd is like gambling $100 on a 80% chance you get nothing back, 1/20 chance to get your $100 back, a 1/100 chance to get $200, and a 1/1000 chance to get $1000.

Not to mention, it depends on the draft's depth.

A re-draft for the 2023 pick might give you someone like Leonard Miller, who has been killing it in the G-league, which is also worth more than a mystery mid-2nd. If not Leonard Miller, then maybe someone like Marcus Sasser. Also, looking more closely at the 2022 draft, Ochai could be picked as high as #16, depending on how you value some of the players (Max Christie, Jaylin, Caleb, AJ Griffin, Dieng, Dyson, Vince Williams)

Also I don't see how that counters the statement you made:

Looking at Ochai's college stats he should have been drafted in the 30s or 40s in that draft

In foresight, if you look at pre-draft numbers, lots of players could be moved a peg back. So if you move like 20 players back, Ochai would still end up around 22.

In hindsight, he may go around 16-20.

[Scase]

It's a whole lot of talk over the 29th pick Especially when we have a pick 2 picks later.

And then there is that.

lol Ochai was the 14th overall in a much better draft than this year.

The mystery box ppl would be like "why aren't our veterans passing the ball to Ochai and generally being subservient to him?" if we drafted him 14th overall this year.

But these are the same ppl who alternate between "I told you Siakam is horrible" and "we didn't get enough for Siakam" depending on the boxscore of a given night.

Yep, which is why he was a throw in for a 29th pick right?

But hey, trade for a guy who is almost certain going to amount to nothing, instead of using a pick to draft a guy that who is almost certain not going to amount to nothing, but still has upside, costs less money, and is on a longer term contract.

When all is said and done, the Ochai trade was a low risk, low reward move. But so is using the pick to grab a player, if Masai thinks Ochai has got something, cool lets give it a shot. But I've seen too much of Flynn to trust that he's able to move past a nothing player, I mean hell he couldn't even do that with good players.

[Los_29]

One thing we do know, Ainge has given up on a lot of prospects too early. We are seeing one play in the WCF semis right now.

[Scase]

One thing we do know, Ainge has given up on a lot of prospects too early. We are seeing one play in the WCF semis right now.

Like who, NAW? The guy who is averaging the same numbers as he did on the NOP? Relax there chief, it's not like he passed on a star, NAW is a roleplayer and he was not concerned about losing him. Put him on a team that doesn't have a DPOY, one of the best scoring big men in the NBA, and one of the best pure scorers in the NBA and no one would even know his name.

The lengths y'all will go to defend mediocre moves is hilarious.