Why Do We Want To Keep The Pick This Year?

[PerfectJab]

Because as a Raptors fan this year has been depressing. It gives us something to look forward to even if what is being looking forward to is minimally rewarding.

[Scase]

Might be really hard with Scottie/IQ/Barrett on the roster. Portland and Washington will be deep in the tank to begin the season. I also suspect Ainge will trade Laurie and also begin his tank next season.

Then you have the Spurs, Charlotte and Detroit who will go into the season with worse rosters and the off-season could also put Brooklyn, Atlanta and Chicago in this group depending on what they do. So 6 potential teams to “compete” with for the final 2 spots. Barring another injury riddled season, it will be very hard for us to out tank all these guys with our roster as it stands.

I suspect this is why they’ve prioritized keeping the pick this year.

It wouldn't be a walk in the park for sure, but the Spurs will definitely not be that bad, CHA should be inching upwards with Miller playing well, and Lamelo being healthy for once in his life, DET is a weird one. The nets dont have their picks until 2028, so no incentive there, ATL seems to play better w/o trae, so who knows maybe they trade him and come back better, Chicago is an unknown, but probably not competing.

I think it can be done, this team has zero bench, and this off season isn't changing that. Jak isn't some ironman, he misses 10-20 games a season, throw in some random injuries to the rest of the core, and you aren't looking so solid. RJ misses about 10 a season, IQ looks to be 10-15 as well. Stretch out some missed games a couple longer and there you are.

This is just like the past Raps teams, starting 5 is solid, no bench to speak of. Any prolonged injuries and you lose a bunch of games, or you lose a bunch of close ones cause the starting 5 is gassed.

I think the path to the Raps rising in the standings is so much easier in the East. This year, because of trades and other unfortunate circumstances, plus clear tanking at the back end, is the reason they have the record they have for this season.

But next season, with a core of Barnes (22), RJ (23), IQ (24), Yak (28), Dick (20) and Olynyk (32), there is a lot of room for growth and development.

In terms of the teams out of the playoffs:
- Wiz are just tanking hard all next season
- Pistons, despite their better efforts this season, have continued to suck. They need a roster shake up, and that would put them a step back most likely.
- Hornets: potential room for growth, but that all rests on the health of LaMelo's ankles, which have not held up the last two years
- Nets: tried to win this year and still sucked. Unless a star player drops in their laps (which they are waiting for with the Suns picks), they are going to continue to suck, as their core is primary players that are 27 or older.
- Hawks: probably trading one of Trae or DM this summer, and I doubt they get back any players that could help them more in the short term than what is going out
- Bulls: could lose DD to FA, and are just waiting to blow it up and tank, even though that is not what ownership wants. No decent FA is signing there, and they are stuck with LaVine's contract.

In terms of the playoff teams:
- Heat: can't push more in the season because Jimmy is pacing himself to be ready for the playoffs
- Sixers: will they get a decent FA, because without Embiid, the team is horrible and he is hurt for a minimum third of the season
- Pacers: have room to grow with their young players and Hali
- Cavs: Could they lose Mitchell this offseason, and can what they get back actually improve the team?
- Magic: room for growth, but there is also the potential for a drop back in the standings after such a rise this season (as teams figure out better how to exploit their weaknesses)
- Knicks: room for growth, but that growth depends on the health of OG
- Bucks: just aging, and who knows if Giannis demands a trade if the Bucks **** the bed in of the playoffs
- Celtics: are championship or bust. If they don't win the chip, do they consider trading Brown? For a team that relies so heavily on 6 core players, Horford will be 38 next season, Holiday could be a FA this offseason, and can KP remain healthy?

All I see across the East is a lot of downward potential for most teams. If the Raps have a healthy team, and Darko figures things out, they could be in for a big rebound next season.

Minor thing to point out but, add 1 year to all of those players, KO is 33 in 9 days, RJ/IQ are 24/25 on the 14th and 17th of June, Scottie is 23 Aug 1st, and Jak is 29 Oct 15th.

So before season start everyone is a year further along.

That said, as for the rest, you very well could be right. My counter however though, is improving because of a bad conference isn't what we should be measuring success by. The last thing we should want is to be the AI led Sixers, or Kidd led Nets. Being good in a bad conference just to get demolished in a finals is really no different than not making it there at all.

Can this core get better due to the east imploding? Sure, but that's not exactly what I call success. The team as constructed, even with supposed peaks/ceilings being reached, likely is not good enough to compete for a chip. Scottie would have to be a top 5 player and IQ/RJ would have to be all NBA level players for that to even be a chance. And that is pretty damn unlikely.

So much like the DD/KL era raps, yeah we can probably bang out high 40's, low 50's win seasons, but does it matter if we end up going against a brick wall with never any chance of actually winning?

[dohboy_24]

Keep in mind that we aren't better than New Orleans with Siakam.

When did Siakam sign with the Pelicans?

Even one of BBQ can become Siakam level, we are not better than 50% record. Yet, we are not worse than Memphis. It is very likely we are between 30% and 40%, won't make the playin and not bad enough against the ultra tanking teams (this year already proved we can't tank better than those teams with BBQ).

25 wins = 30.4% win percentage
33 wins = 40.2% win percentage
41 wins = 50% win percentage
50 wins = 60% win percentage

Do you think we'll win somewhere between 33 and 41 games next season and either make the play-in tournament as a #9 or #10 seed or end up in the bottom half of the lottery (#7 to #14 pick) for the 2025 draft?

As for next year, I don't need to pick, but definitely has higher ceilings. All I feel is that in 2025, there are higher ceiling players in Zikarsky / Bidunga who would project better than Clingan in lower pick. The comparison in Castle will have to wait for next year, but there are few high ceiling players who are projected to be better and may able to find one near lottery.

While those players might end up being better than Clingan at some point five years down the road, they aren't better than him now and neither would be a better fit alongside Scottie, RJ, IQ, Dick, Ochai, and Boucher than Clingan even though he's not the most ideal fit either.

Zikarsky - his FIBA #'s are good, but not when he played 7 minutes per game in the NBL. Passes the eye test despite looking like he was taken straight from the outback dessert of Australia, but he isn't a great passer or shooter and might not develop those skills well enough to be the kind of KO/JP clone we'd likely want to have alongside Scottie.

Bidunga - DR of Congo native who began playing basketball in 2019 and didn't arrive in the US to play in HS until 2021. Undersized for the C position at 6-9 who would likely be more of a PF if his skill set were able to move him out to that position, but his lack of shooting and ability to handle the ball aren't a good fit so he uses his energy, hustle, speed, agility and athleticism to outwork and outmaneuver his opponents.

With centers like Kyle Filipowski, Yves Missi, and Kel'el Ware potentially available when we select using the Pacers pick at #17 in the 2024 draft, I'd even prefer Missi & Ware over Bidunga and Filipowski over Zikarsky or would even be happy with a sharp-shooting PF like Tyler Smith or Tidjane Salaun than choose either of those C prospects in the late lottery of the 2025 draft.

As for the guards and wings we could select this year or next, whether it's Risacher, Castle, Dillingham, Sheppard, Holland, Buzelis, or perhaps even Cody Williams, I'd rather select any of the above among the top 6 in the 2024 draft than roll the dice and hope a guard/wing like Boogie Fland, Jaland Lowe, Cam Scott, Jase Richardson, Rylan Griffen, Kanaan Carlyle, Nolan Traore, Drake Powell, Isaiah Evans, Karter Knox, Carter Bryant, Dame Sarr, Hamad Mousa, Egor Demin, Mackenize Mgbako, Liam McNeeley, Caleb Foster, Tahaad Pettiford, or AJ Storr who could be available in the late lottery of the 2025 draft is going to be better than any of them by the time their rookie contracts end and they're eligible for their first extension.

Considering the breadth and depth of this draft, the player we select at #17 could be just as good as the player we select at #6 but the player we'd likely get somewhere at the end of the lottery in 2025 probably isn't going to be any better than either of these players who'll each have the benefit of growing together along with the rest of the team for a whole season and can compound that growth as they work together over the summer after next season.

Just the same as it were in 2016 when we drafted/signed Jakob, Pascal, and FVV in the same year, I think the opportunities and growth potential provided by adding three players from the same draft class are more advantageous to the team and would rather not convey the pick this year for all of the reasons I've stated.

Ultimately, though, it will come down to how the ping-pong balls bounce but hopefully we get a top 4 pick in this year's draft and walk away with a player who can be just as good as whomever we could pick at the end of the lottery in 2025, but have the benefit of growing and developing alongside other rookies and the rest of the core a full season longer than it would be if we had to wait until next year to add that piece to our core.

[Pointgod]

It’s pretty simple why we should want to keep the pick. This year we’re 6 or higher and next year best case we’re a playin team which means the 14th to 16th pick. It makes zero sense to convey this year and drop 8 to 10 spots. If we planned on tanking next year it wouldn’t matter but this front office is going to try and compete for some strange reason so yeah let’s just pick this year.

[Jay240]

If we convey the pick this year... it can be as high as the 7th pick.

If we keep the pick this year, even it being a weak draft, the Raptors have a good track record for the most part in scouting talent. So you'll have a top 6 pick this year.

Add in a healthy Scottie plus the additions of Quick and RJ. And development of some of the younger guys. And maybe a decent free agent with our cap space.

If all things go well, next year's pick might be even in the 20s.

[Indeed]

Keep in mind that we aren't better than New Orleans with Siakam.

When did Siakam sign with the Pelicans?

Not sure what you don't understand, "we aren't better than New Orleans [even] with Siakam" is exactly referring to our team having Siakam. English.

Even one of BBQ can become Siakam level, we are not better than 50% record. Yet, we are not worse than Memphis. It is very likely we are between 30% and 40%, won't make the playin and not bad enough against the ultra tanking teams (this year already proved we can't tank better than those teams with BBQ).

25 wins = 30.4% win percentage
33 wins = 40.2% win percentage
41 wins = 50% win percentage
50 wins = 60% win percentage

Do you think we'll win somewhere between 33 and 41 games next season and either make the play-in tournament as a #9 or #10 seed or end up in the bottom half of the lottery (#7 to #14 pick) for the 2025 draft?

No, we aren't making #9 / #10 play-in seed, we are straight bottom #8 - #12 (or from the top #11 - #13 on our conference). Charlotte years.

As for next year, I don't need to pick, but definitely has higher ceilings. All I feel is that in 2025, there are higher ceiling players in Zikarsky / Bidunga who would project better than Clingan in lower pick. The comparison in Castle will have to wait for next year, but there are few high ceiling players who are projected to be better and may able to find one near lottery.

While those players might end up being better than Clingan at some point five years down the road, they aren't better than him now and neither would be a better fit alongside Scottie, RJ, IQ, Dick, Ochai, and Boucher than Clingan even though he's not the most ideal fit either.

Zikarsky - his FIBA #'s are good, but not when he played 7 minutes per game in the NBL. Passes the eye test despite looking like he was taken straight from the outback dessert of Australia, but he isn't a great passer or shooter and might not develop those skills well enough to be the kind of KO/JP clone we'd likely want to have alongside Scottie.

Bidunga - DR of Congo native who began playing basketball in 2019 and didn't arrive in the US to play in HS until 2021. Undersized for the C position at 6-9 who would likely be more of a PF if his skill set were able to move him out to that position, but his lack of shooting and ability to handle the ball aren't a good fit so he uses his energy, hustle, speed, agility and athleticism to outwork and outmaneuver his opponents.

With centers like Kyle Filipowski, Yves Missi, and Kel'el Ware potentially available when we select using the Pacers pick at #17 in the 2024 draft, I'd even prefer Missi & Ware over Bidunga and Filipowski over Zikarsky or would even be happy with a sharp-shooting PF like Tyler Smith or Tidjane Salaun than choose either of those C prospects in the late lottery of the 2025 draft.

As for the guards and wings we could select this year or next, whether it's Risacher, Castle, Dillingham, Sheppard, Holland, Buzelis, or perhaps even Cody Williams, I'd rather select any of the above among the top 6 in the 2024 draft than roll the dice and hope a guard/wing like Boogie Fland, Jaland Lowe, Cam Scott, Jase Richardson, Rylan Griffen, Kanaan Carlyle, Nolan Traore, Drake Powell, Isaiah Evans, Karter Knox, Carter Bryant, Dame Sarr, Hamad Mousa, Egor Demin, Mackenize Mgbako, Liam McNeeley, Caleb Foster, Tahaad Pettiford, or AJ Storr who could be available in the late lottery of the 2025 draft is going to be better than any of them by the time their rookie contracts end and they're eligible for their first extension.

Considering the breadth and depth of this draft, the player we select at #17 could be just as good as the player we select at #6 but the player we'd likely get somewhere at the end of the lottery in 2025 probably isn't going to be any better than either of these players who'll each have the benefit of growing together along with the rest of the team for a whole season and can compound that growth as they work together over the summer after next season.

Just the same as it were in 2016 when we drafted/signed Jakob, Pascal, and FVV in the same year, I think the opportunities and growth potential provided by adding three players from the same draft class are more advantageous to the team and would rather not convey the pick this year for all of the reasons I've stated.

Ultimately, though, it will come down to how the ping-pong balls bounce but hopefully we get a top 4 pick in this year's draft and walk away with a player who can be just as good as whomever we could pick at the end of the lottery in 2025, but have the benefit of growing and developing alongside other rookies and the rest of the core a full season longer than it would be if we had to wait until next year to add that piece to our core.

That is your take on prospects, which I clearly disagree.
I definitely don't see Kyle Filipowski, Yves Missi, and Kel'el Ware being starter potential as compare to the C in the lottery of next year.

There is always a chance a lower pick can out perform a higher pick, yet, no one pick the right prospect to claim they were right at the draft years after. If you can predict the future, you probably won the lottery, since the gamble is the same, and same thing you posted player names as compare to lottery number, where you buy it, you have a chance to win, just that it is very low. Good luck on your gambling life.

[Badonkadonk]

I've been trying to talk myself into some of the "top end" guys in this years draft. I can't do it.

I'm sure there will be surprises and/or a gem or two, but it's so weak.

I like Sheppard and Castle a bit, but definitely find myself hoping the pick conveys.

[bballsparkin]

I've been trying to talk myself into some of the "top end" guys in this years draft. I can't do it.

I'm sure there will be surprises and/or a gem or two, but it's so weak.

I like Sheppard and Castle a bit, but definitely find myself hoping the pick conveys.

I can't either. But there's a lot of players I can think of as options. And picking the right one is not my job. I'm not even considering #6, I'm thinking top 4 or next year. So there we have it. The FO made the trade and it might not convey leaving the team in a bad position to lose a lottery pick in a draft that unanimously seems to be considered a better draft in 2025.

So thus, they better get the pick right.

Let's say it's 3rd. Sarr is gone. And then honestly who knows. Topic, Holland, Reed, Dillingham, That Matt guy, Clingan, CW, French Zach, Castle, etc. Not my job. But I hope it will be the FO of the Toronto Raptor's job this summer.

Ultimately it's looking like a coin flip and either scenario has merits. We shall see how this ends up. It will be interesting if nothing else.

[dohboy_24]

Not sure what you don't understand, "we aren't better than New Orleans [even] with Siakam" is exactly referring to our team having Siakam. English.

Much better. The edited version does not allow for any misunderstanding as it's proper English.

Not sure what Siakam and New Orleans have to do with our record next year, but I agree the Pelicans are better than our current team or the one we began the season with.

No, we aren't making #9 / #10 play-in seed, we are straight bottom #8 - #12 (or from the top #11 - #13 on our conference). Charlotte years.

For this draft, the teams with the 8th to 12th worst records are:

Utah - 36.7% win percentage
Brooklyn - 40% win percentage
Atlanta (#10 play-in) - 45% win percentage
Chicago (#9 play-in) - 46.8% win percentage
Houston - 49.4% win percentage

Just the same as Atlanta and Chicago this year, it's possible we could have the 8th to 12th worst record and still end up in the play-in tournament as either the #9 or #10 seed.

That is your take on prospects, which I clearly disagree.
I definitely don't see Kyle Filipowski, Yves Missi, and Kel'el Ware being starter potential as compare to the C in the lottery of next year.

In my opinion, the fit with our current players and the skill set they bring to the team is more important than potential.

If one prospect is tier 1a but the fit with the current roster isn't as good as a tier 1b prospect, I'd rather the player with the better fit and slightly lower projections as it would benefit the team to a greater degree.

There is always a chance a lower pick can out perform a higher pick,

Yes, the player we select at #31 could become better than the one selected at #17 and the same can be said of the player we hopefully select among the top 4 or with the #6 pick.

yet, no one pick the right prospect to claim they were right at the draft years after. If you can predict the future, you probably won the lottery, since the gamble is the same, and same thing you posted player names as compare to lottery number, where you buy it, you have a chance to win, just that it is very low. Good luck on your gambling life.

I'm not sure what you mean to say. Can you give the proper English version this time (see above for reference)?

[Ell Curry]

In my opinion, the fit with our current players and the skill set they bring to the team is more important than potential.

If one prospect is tier 1a but the fit with the current roster isn't as good as a tier 1b prospect, I'd rather the player with the better fit and slightly lower projections as it would benefit the team to a greater degree.

I don't really agree with this, with the one exception being a PF who can't really shoot.

It's all about getting a 2nd top tier talent that fits at least okay with Barnes, and I think basically anyone who is really good and isn't a PF who can't shoot the 3 (basically Siakam) would fit well with Barnes.

There's just no way Quickley-Dick-Barrett-Barnes-Poeltl and adding 2 solid starters who aren't stars in the next 3 drafts is enough talent to seriously contend. Miami has done an incredible job but even they have 2 all-stars. We need a 2nd all-star or the Barnes' era is never going to get off the ground. Maybe we get one like Cleveland or Minny did by trading away 4-5 drafts and some combo of Quickley/Barrett/Poeltl/Dick, but we're seeing that not really work in Cleveland and even Minny had Edwards and Towns which is a better pair than Barnes and any non all-star.

So yeah, I think all that really matters at this point is getting a 2nd star in the building, and the draft is the best way to do that. It's nice to think that we could throw out a Pistons 2004 style team, but there's a reason that's so rare. We probably need at least a prime Bradley Beal or Jrue Holiday as a #2 at the very minimum to be genuinely and consistently good and be in position to look to upgrade.

[Hansari]

Because we have a 33%+ chance to land a top 4 pick this year, whereas even with organic growth we will not have nearly the same odds. If we fall lower than 6 then in a weak draft it’s not the end of the world. However, if we land a top pick, even with it being a weak draft, that will be a significant addition and with our draft record, there’s a good chance we hit on a damn impressive player.

[Ell Curry]

I've been trying to talk myself into some of the "top end" guys in this years draft. I can't do it.

I'm sure there will be surprises and/or a gem or two, but it's so weak.

I like Sheppard and Castle a bit, but definitely find myself hoping the pick conveys.

Same. I haven't seen the non-NCAA guys apart from highlights, but it was clear watching the tournament that it was a very weak year for NCAA talent, which is probably why Clingan's defending, UConn's coaching/spacing/having zero weak defenders and Edey's dominance really stood out.

have managed to sort of talk myself into talking myself into the upside of the following guys if they end up Raptors:

-A couple nice possessions from Cody Williams where he looked like a wing who could do a bit of everything and him being a solid 4th or 5th guy on a genuinely solid team as a freshman despite injuries and being real thin.

-Reed Sheppard's advanced numbers are tremendous, especially for a non-center. Seems like a fun backcourt mate for Quickley, too. Good numbers when there's nothing else to grab on to, sure!

-Topic Seems like while he's not quite dominating the league like Sengun, he's among the best guards in the league, which is pretty impressive at his age. Big backcourt with Quickley and him would be nice.

[DelAbbot]

It’s pretty simple why we should want to keep the pick. This year we’re 6 or higher and next year best case we’re a playin team which means the 14th to 16th pick. It makes zero sense to convey this year and drop 8 to 10 spots. If we planned on tanking next year it wouldn’t matter but this front office is going to try and compete for some strange reason so yeah let’s just pick this year.

tank of popcorn ready for 2024/2025

[OakleyDokely]

Not many teams are attempting a scorched earth PHI style tank anymore because of the flattened odds. Most teams are competing, then pulling the plug midway through the season if things aren't going well.

The Raps have a 9% chance at the #1 pick from the 6th position, the 13 win Pistons have a 14% chance at #1. There isn't a dramatic difference anymore, so gutting your entire team for a few % points doesn't make much sense in many cases. When PHI had their 10 win season, they had a 25% chance at getting #1 while the team sitting in 6th had a 6% chance.

[OAKLEY_2]

I've been trying to talk myself into some of the "top end" guys in this years draft. I can't do it.

I'm sure there will be surprises and/or a gem or two, but it's so weak.

I like Sheppard and Castle a bit, but definitely find myself hoping the pick conveys.

Castle is definitely worth staying in the draft for. Cody Williams might break out too if he gets stronger legs. Sarr is a stud or almost-stud. Topic is going to be very good. That's 4 players who are home run material. Give me any of those 4 and Edey.

[OAKLEY_2]

With Edey we might get lucky with the PACERS pick.
https://ftw.usatoday.com/2024/04/where-will-zach-edey-go-in-the-2024-nba-draft-here-is-what-the-experts-predict

[OAKLEY_2]

We should promise Edey at the Pacers pick. If he does not come for a work out we know he has a promise ahead of us. That promise would be contingent on us keeping our lotto pick.

[bballsparkin]

With Edey we might get lucky with the PACERS pick.
https://ftw.usatoday.com/2024/04/where-will-zach-edey-go-in-the-2024-nba-draft-here-is-what-the-experts-predict

Drafting Edey at the Pacers pick would be good fun watching various posters having epic meltdowns.

[JB7]

It wouldn't be a walk in the park for sure, but the Spurs will definitely not be that bad, CHA should be inching upwards with Miller playing well, and Lamelo being healthy for once in his life, DET is a weird one. The nets dont have their picks until 2028, so no incentive there, ATL seems to play better w/o trae, so who knows maybe they trade him and come back better, Chicago is an unknown, but probably not competing.

I think it can be done, this team has zero bench, and this off season isn't changing that. Jak isn't some ironman, he misses 10-20 games a season, throw in some random injuries to the rest of the core, and you aren't looking so solid. RJ misses about 10 a season, IQ looks to be 10-15 as well. Stretch out some missed games a couple longer and there you are.

This is just like the past Raps teams, starting 5 is solid, no bench to speak of. Any prolonged injuries and you lose a bunch of games, or you lose a bunch of close ones cause the starting 5 is gassed.

I think the path to the Raps rising in the standings is so much easier in the East. This year, because of trades and other unfortunate circumstances, plus clear tanking at the back end, is the reason they have the record they have for this season.

But next season, with a core of Barnes (22), RJ (23), IQ (24), Yak (28), Dick (20) and Olynyk (32), there is a lot of room for growth and development.

In terms of the teams out of the playoffs:
- Wiz are just tanking hard all next season
- Pistons, despite their better efforts this season, have continued to suck. They need a roster shake up, and that would put them a step back most likely.
- Hornets: potential room for growth, but that all rests on the health of LaMelo's ankles, which have not held up the last two years
- Nets: tried to win this year and still sucked. Unless a star player drops in their laps (which they are waiting for with the Suns picks), they are going to continue to suck, as their core is primary players that are 27 or older.
- Hawks: probably trading one of Trae or DM this summer, and I doubt they get back any players that could help them more in the short term than what is going out
- Bulls: could lose DD to FA, and are just waiting to blow it up and tank, even though that is not what ownership wants. No decent FA is signing there, and they are stuck with LaVine's contract.

In terms of the playoff teams:
- Heat: can't push more in the season because Jimmy is pacing himself to be ready for the playoffs
- Sixers: will they get a decent FA, because without Embiid, the team is horrible and he is hurt for a minimum third of the season
- Pacers: have room to grow with their young players and Hali
- Cavs: Could they lose Mitchell this offseason, and can what they get back actually improve the team?
- Magic: room for growth, but there is also the potential for a drop back in the standings after such a rise this season (as teams figure out better how to exploit their weaknesses)
- Knicks: room for growth, but that growth depends on the health of OG
- Bucks: just aging, and who knows if Giannis demands a trade if the Bucks **** the bed in of the playoffs
- Celtics: are championship or bust. If they don't win the chip, do they consider trading Brown? For a team that relies so heavily on 6 core players, Horford will be 38 next season, Holiday could be a FA this offseason, and can KP remain healthy?

All I see across the East is a lot of downward potential for most teams. If the Raps have a healthy team, and Darko figures things out, they could be in for a big rebound next season.

Minor thing to point out but, add 1 year to all of those players, KO is 33 in 9 days, RJ/IQ are 24/25 on the 14th and 17th of June, Scottie is 23 Aug 1st, and Jak is 29 Oct 15th.

So before season start everyone is a year further along.

That said, as for the rest, you very well could be right. My counter however though, is improving because of a bad conference isn't what we should be measuring success by. The last thing we should want is to be the AI led Sixers, or Kidd led Nets. Being good in a bad conference just to get demolished in a finals is really no different than not making it there at all.

Can this core get better due to the east imploding? Sure, but that's not exactly what I call success. The team as constructed, even with supposed peaks/ceilings being reached, likely is not good enough to compete for a chip. Scottie would have to be a top 5 player and IQ/RJ would have to be all NBA level players for that to even be a chance. And that is pretty damn unlikely.

So much like the DD/KL era raps, yeah we can probably bang out high 40's, low 50's win seasons, but does it matter if we end up going against a brick wall with never any chance of actually winning?

Back to the original point I was making, and what the point of this thread is, about why to keep the pick this year. Why not, because it is going to be hard to suck this bad next year, unless there are significant injuries across the board. The East is just that bad, and as Orlando has proved this year, it is not hard for teams to move up quickly.

Even though these Eastern teams are not as strong as the West teams, you always would prefer to be in the East with the easier path to the finals. Then it just comes down to one series, where injuries can influence the outcome.

LeBron's legacy would not be what it is, had he played his whole career in the West.

[LBJKB24MJ23]

If this team does make the play-in next season, would it have been better to give up a pick this year in the top 10 or better to keep this year's pick and draft in the mid first rounds next season? Or is it a wash?

it really depends. I guess you will know after next year.

is the first 6th pick of this draft better than the player we could/take in next year's draft.