Re: Pacers Pick Tracking (Update: #19 officially)
Posted: Tue Apr 23, 2024 9:56 pm
We might dangle Brown + #19 to move up in the draft.
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PhilBlackson wrote:DreamTeam09 wrote:Syd-TK3 wrote:And what is yours
lol everyone always over plays the bad, I guarantee 100% one of carter or McCain will be there.
I give Carter a chance to be there but not McCain.
We all know how valuable shooting is in this league & he's a Duke recruit, teams will know him quite extensively. I just don't see him making it past NOP when he's a near perfect fit for them when Zion is healthy. If ATL does in fact trade Trae to anyone other than SAS it would likely be the Lakers (I think NOP will let LA have this year's and take next year's instead)....ORL would LOVE to have some shooting to spread the floor for Paolo & Franz -- I just don't see him falling past all of that to us but if he does we better snatch him up! Because he's a lights out shooter who would essentially clone a lot of what IQ does so should make for a fairly seamless blend into the rotation.
I'd still really like Carter as a backup. I just think McCain would have more potential to push IQ for a starting spot long term but DC to me just seems like one of the rock solid rotation guys that usually the Heat would pick up lol. I give him a chance to slide through because of course MIA will likely end up draft Collier as he's a Heat type of player too but with more potential but I don't think the other franchises between them & us believe in multi year players as much & he's not the level of shooter Jared is that those teams would mainly want him for.
I would still be pretty happy with Carter but I'll probably be a lot more open to entertaining taking other players ie/ Ware, Salaun, Walter, Carrington etc because I don't think his ceiling is quite as high and personally if we don't retain our pick, I don't think it's good enough to have a season like we just had, to use our first on obtaining a backup and not aiming a bit higher to try and draft someone who can be a long term starter but again I wouldn't be upset if we took DC.
DreamTeam09 wrote:dohboy_24 wrote:.Spoiler:
Good post / I'm pretty sure we'll be selecting someone from this group. I wanted Salaun but I don't think he'll be there, I like one of the guards or a big in Ware / Missi. Furphy is also intriguing as another GD clone. Having two movement shooter specialist could be cool
PhilBlackson wrote:DreamTeam09 wrote:dohboy_24 wrote:.Spoiler:
Good post / I'm pretty sure we'll be selecting someone from this group. I wanted Salaun but I don't think he'll be there, I like one of the guards or a big in Ware / Missi. Furphy is also intriguing as another GD clone. Having two movement shooter specialist could be cool
Personally I have no desire to draft Missi, I don't see the appeal.
I get it's better to have a player capable of defending the rim & being a lob threat but in the end, if we're going to build a structure that FITS around Scottie, we NEED a C that can play outside of the paint so Scottie can be MOST effective. Sure his shot is coming along but where he's clearly most proficient is either getting downhill to the rim or posting up in the halfcourt. It's why the offence looked a lot better (albeit a small sample size) when Olynk was out there with him (and exactly why we traded for him).
If we want to make the best use out of Scottie, we simply NEED a big that at least act as a threat to hit an open 3 to clear out that paint for him and with that said I EASILY take Ware over Missi and I'd even take Chomche because he has all the same advantages but at least has some semblance of a jumper to work with. Even if I think Missi can be a solid rotation big, I'd be really disappointed if we used our pick on him.
LoveMyRaps wrote:We might dangle Brown + #19 to move up in the draft.
LoveMyRaps wrote:We might dangle Brown + #19 to move up in the draft.
LoveMyRaps wrote:We might dangle Brown + #19 to move up in the draft.
WuTang_OG wrote:LoveMyRaps wrote:We might dangle Brown + #19 to move up in the draft.
I think a Brown trade has to happen between now and the draft
OAKLEY_2 wrote:There is no real outcome difference that moves any conceivable dial going from 16-19. Just have to plug a hole successfully with the pick or have an upside player like Collier fall to us. Safe pick w/be da Silva. The only centres I would bet on are Sarr, Clingan or Edey. Tyler Smith would be a good pick here for sure. If we swing for fences might as well pick Furphy.
dohboy_24 wrote:Depending on the players drafted in the #11 to #18 range, any of the following could be available for the Raptors to choose at #19:
GUARDS:
Isaiah Collier, 6'4", 205 lbs, G, USC
Jared McCain, 6'3", 195 lbs, G, Duke
Devin Carter, 6'3", 195 lbs, G, Providence
Carlton Carrington, 6'5", 190 lbs, G, Pittsburgh
Ja'Kobe Walter, 6'5", 195 lbs, G, Baylor
Kyshawn George, 6'8", 205 lbs, G, Miami
WINGS/FORWARDS:
Tidjane Salaun, 6'10', 205 lbs, F, Cholet (France)
Tyler Smith, 6'11", 225 lbs, F, G League Ignite
Collin Murray-Boyles, 6'7", 235 lbs, F, South Carolina
Johnny Furphy, 6'9", 205 lbs, F, Kansas
Tristan daSilva, 6'9", 220 lbs, F, Colorado
Dalton Knecht, 6'6", 215 lbs, F, Tennessee
CENTERS:
Kyle Filipowski, 7'0", 230 lbs, C, Duke
Kel'el Ware, 7'0", 210 lbs, C, Indiana
Yves Missi, 7'0", 235 lbs, C, Baylor
Ulrich Chomche, 6'11", 235 lbs, F/C, NBA Academy Africa
Given those options, our ability to draft and develop players; I'm hopeful we'll be able to grab a player at #19 who can contribute to the team as a part of the 9-man rotation both next season and throughout their rookie deal.
dohboy_24 wrote:LoveMyRaps wrote:We might dangle Brown + #19 to move up in the draft.
Good idea in theory, but to whom do we trade him and which players and/or picks do we receive in return?
Utah: #8 + #29 or #32 + ??
Houston: #9 + #44 + ??
Atlanta: #10 + ??
Chicago: #11 + ??
OKC: #12 + ??
Sacramento: #13 + ??
Portland: #14 + #34 or #40 + ??
Miami: #15 + #43 + ??
Philadelphia: #16 + #41 + ??
New Orleans: #17 + #21 + ??
Scase wrote:I feel like expecting a player that is both in a bad draft and picked at 19, to contribute as a good player off the bench is a large ask. Hell, some top 5 picks fumble that.
Scase wrote:I can't see how almost any of those teams would be interested in Brown, plus I cant see how Masai who already turned down (allegedly) a 2024 FRP for Brown, would be willing to trade him and a pick just to move up a couple slots.
Like you said, not a bad idea in theory, but I don't see any reality where any of those teams cares to pick up Brown. Most either have no use for him/he doesn't move the needle, or they are rebuilding.
dohboy_24 wrote:Scase wrote:I feel like expecting a player that is both in a bad draft and picked at 19, to contribute as a good player off the bench is a large ask. Hell, some top 5 picks fumble that.
Yes, top 5 picks fumble the ball all the time and so do picks in the lottery and many of the players chosen in the first round.
Look at the 2016 draft when the Raptors drafted Pascal Siakam at #27 and Jakob Poeltl at #9 in the same draft that Ben Simmons (#1), Brandon Ingram (#2), Jaylen Brown (#3), Kris Dunn (#5), Buddy Hield (#6), Jamal Murray (#7), Jakob Poeltl (#9), Domantas Sabonis (#11) and Taurean Prince (#12) were all selected in the lottery.
While those players are still playing today and contributing to the success of their teams, Dragan Bender (#4), Marquese Chriss (#8), Thon Maker (#10), Georgios Papagiannis (#13), and Denzel Valentine (#14) were also selected in the lottery but aren't playing in the league today and never lived up to the expectations of being a lottery pick.
Nine (9) players who are starters or key players as part of their team's 8 or 9 man rotation and five (5) players who never really made much of an impact during their rookie deal and aren't in the league anymore.
Beyond the lottery...
BUSTS:
Juancho Hernangomez (#15), Guerschon Yabusele (#16), Wade Baldwin (#17), Henry Ellenson (#18), Malachi Richardson (#22), Ante Zizic (#23), Brice Johnson (#25), Skal Labissiere (#28)
ROLE PLAYERS:
Malik Beasley (#19), Caris LaVert (#20), DeAndre' Bembry (#21), Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (#24), Furkan Korkmaz (#26), Damian Jones (#30)
STARTERS:
Pascal Siakam (#27), Dejounte Murray (#29)
Outside of the lottery, eight (8) of the players are still in the league and contributing to their teams and/or were serviceable players during their 6-7 year career that recently ended and eight (8) of them were busts who never really made much of an impact during their rookie deal and aren't in the league anymore.
2016 DRAFT FINAL SCORE:
17 players who are still in the league and contributing to their teams
13 players who were busts who never really had an impact during their rookie deals and aren't in the league anymore
If you were to randomly chose any player selected during the first round of the 2016 draft, there's a 45% chance the player you selected isn't even playing in the league anymore and a 55% chance they're still in the league and contributing to their teams as part of the 8 or 9 man rotation.
In the next draft (2017) when we selected OG Anunoby (#23), the breakdown of players who are contributing and still in the league compared to those who never really made much of an impact that are no longer in the league is similar, but slightly different.
STARTERS:
Jayson Tatum (#3), De'Aaron Fox (#5), Lauri Markkanen (#7), Donovan Mitchell (#13), Bam Adebayo (#14), Jarrett Allen (#22), OG Anunoby (#23)
ROLE PLAYERS:
Markell Fultz (#1), Lonzo Ball (#2), Jonathan Isaac (#6), Dennis Smith Jr (#9), Zac Collins (#10), Malik Monk (#11), Luke Kennard (#12), Justin Jackson (#15), John Collins (#19), Kyle Kuzma (#27), Derrick White (#29), Josh Hart (#30)
BUSTS:
Josh Jackson (#4), Frank Ntilikina (#8), Justin Patton (#16), DJ Wilson (#17), TJ Leaf (#18), Harry Giles (#20), Terrance Ferguson (#21), Tyler Lydon (#24), Anzejis Pasecniks (#25), Caleb Swanigan (#26), Tony Bradley (#28)
2017 DRAFT FINAL SCORE:
19 players who are still in the league and contributing to their teams
11 players who were busts who never really had an impact during their rookie deals and aren't in the league anymore
If you were to randomly chose any player selected during the first round of the 2017 draft, there's a 35% chance the player you selected isn't even playing in the league anymore and a 65% chance they're still in the league and contributing to their teams as part of the 8 or 9 man rotation.
While each draft is going to be different, the Raptors front office has been in this position before and been able to come away with a starter-level player despite there being a 35% to 45% likelihood the player we selected isn't even in the league anymore so I'm confident in their ability to repeat history and find the gems that are hidden in the later part of first round in the 2024 draft.Scase wrote:I can't see how almost any of those teams would be interested in Brown, plus I cant see how Masai who already turned down (allegedly) a 2024 FRP for Brown, would be willing to trade him and a pick just to move up a couple slots.
Like you said, not a bad idea in theory, but I don't see any reality where any of those teams cares to pick up Brown. Most either have no use for him/he doesn't move the needle, or they are rebuilding.
Agreed. I don't see any of those teams being interested in a package of Brown + #19 to trade down.
Scase wrote:The issue is, the Raptors have not hit on any of those types of players since OG, this is including both drafting and UFAs. And at this point there is as much evidence to suggest the hits they made were sheer luck, just as much as they were skill. I appreciate your confidence in them, but I'm sure you can understand why others may not share that same feeling.
dohboy_24 wrote:Scase wrote:The issue is, the Raptors have not hit on any of those types of players since OG, this is including both drafting and UFAs. And at this point there is as much evidence to suggest the hits they made were sheer luck, just as much as they were skill. I appreciate your confidence in them, but I'm sure you can understand why others may not share that same feeling.
2018 draft:
No first round pick. No second round pick. GRADE: N/A
2019 draft:
No first round pick. Second last pick in the draft - Dewan Hernandez (#59). Player selected after him never played a single NBA game or minute. GRADE: 8/10
2020 draft:
#29 pick - Malachi Flynn
Desmond Bane (#30), Tre Jones (#41), Xavier Tillman Sr (#35), Isaiah Joe (#49), Theo Maledon (#34), Nick Richards (#42), Jordan Nwora (#45), KJ Martin (#52) and Paul Reed (#58) have played as many minutes or more than Malachi Flynn and were still available when he was chosen.
GRADE: 5/10 - Not many players drafted after Flynn who have turned out to be better than he's been so far in his career. Only 9 of the 31 players (29%) who were drafted after Flynn are playing at a level the same or greater than he's been with Desmond Bane being the one player we'd be much better off having than Flynn as he's the only player whose consistently played a starter role.
#59 pick - Jalen Harris. Sam Merrill (#60) was available and he's still playing on a team that's in the playoffs this season. GRADE: 2/10
2021 draft:
#4 pick - Scottie Barnes. ROY + first and only All-Star from this draft class so far. GRADE: 10/10
#46 pick - Dalano Banton
Brandon Boston Jr (#51), Aaron Wiggins (#55), and Jericho Sims (#58) have played a similar amount of minutes and contributed as much to their teams as Banton and were still available when he was selected. GRADE: 7/10
#47 pick - David Johnson. Anyone of the above mentioned players would have been a better selection. GRADE: 0/10
2022 draft:
#33 pick - Christian Koloko
Jaylin Williams (#34), Max Christie (#35), Jaden Hardy (#37), Bryce McGowens (#40), Vince Williams Jr. (#47), and Jabari Walker (#57) have all played twice as many minutes during their careers than Koloko has during his career. While some of that is due to the injuries he's had and health issues that have lead him to leave the team, those players were still available when he was selected and they've contributed much more than he has on the floor since being drafted. GRADE: 5/10
2023 draft:
#13 pick - Gradey Dick
Jordan Hawkins (#14), Keyonte George (#16), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (#18), Brandin Podziemski (#19), Kris Murray (#23), Marcus Sasser (#25), GG Jackson II (#45), Toumani Camara (#52), and Trayce Jackson-Davis (#57) were all available to be selected after Gradey Dick, and yet they've all played as many or more minutes than he has and/or contributed as much or more to their team as he has for the Raptors this past season. GRADE: 7/10
The 20/20 HINDSIGHT BPA DRAFT CHOICES:
With the hindsight of 20/20, the only selections the front office could have made that might have worked out better than the ones they did if they picked the best player still left available on the draft board would have been:
1 - Draft Desmond Bane (#29) in the 2020 draft - 17 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists in 244 games
2 - Draft Sam Merrill (#59) in the 2020 draft - 6 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist in 102 games
3 - Draft Aaron Wiggins (#46) in the 2021 draft - 7 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist in 198 games
4 - Draft Jaylin Williams (#33) in the 2022 draft - 5 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists in 118 games
Considering Malachi Flynn, Dalano Banton, and Christian Koloko are no longer playing for the Raptors and all of the above expect for Sam Merrill have remained with the teams that drafted them, our team would arguably be better than it is today if we had Desmond Bane, Aaron Wiggins, and Jaylin Williams still playing for the Raptors just the same as they do the Grizzlies and Thunder teams who originally drafted them.
Since Desmond Bane, Jaylin Williams, and Sam Merrill were selected immediately after we selected our player in those drafts there weren't any other teams who missed out on them other than us while there were seven (7) other teams (23% of the NBA) other than us who passed on Aaron Wiggins before OKC selected him so we have good company with a 1/3 of the league who passed on the opportunity to choose him.
GRADE: 6/10
In comparison to the best-case scenario, I'd still grade our front office a 6/10 with the only big missed opportunity being Desmond Bane. Aaron Wiggins is definitely better than David Johnson and Jaylin Williams would have worked our better than Koloko too, but the real difference maker would have been choosing Desmond Bane instead of Malachi Flynn in the 2020 draft.
Other than that, I think the front office has done a decent enough job choosing the prospects they have selected when you consider who they selected and the performance of the players selected after them during the years they had a pick in the draft.
dohboy_24 wrote:LoveMyRaps wrote:We might dangle Brown + #19 to move up in the draft.
Good idea in theory, but to whom do we trade him and which players and/or picks do we receive in return?
Utah: #8 + #29 or #32 + ??
Houston: #9 + #44 + ??
Atlanta: #10 + ??
Chicago: #11 + ??
OKC: #12 + ??
Sacramento: #13 + ??
Portland: #14 + #34 or #40 + ??
Miami: #15 + #43 + ??
Philadelphia: #16 + #41 + ??
New Orleans: #17 + #21 + ??
Scase wrote:I specified UFA signings for a reason, I'm not particularly critical about their drafting, it's probably the only thing I still trust them to do.
Where they fail, to me, is not finding a single player outside the draft that is capable of contributing to the team since Boucher in 2018. 1 NBA calibre player in 6 years is pretty bad.
dohboy_24 wrote:Scase wrote:I specified UFA signings for a reason, I'm not particularly critical about their drafting, it's probably the only thing I still trust them to do.
Where they fail, to me, is not finding a single player outside the draft that is capable of contributing to the team since Boucher in 2018. 1 NBA calibre player in 6 years is pretty bad.
Who are some examples of UFA's that were signed by other teams that you would have rather signed with the Raptors?
Scase wrote:dohboy_24 wrote:Scase wrote:I specified UFA signings for a reason, I'm not particularly critical about their drafting, it's probably the only thing I still trust them to do.
Where they fail, to me, is not finding a single player outside the draft that is capable of contributing to the team since Boucher in 2018. 1 NBA calibre player in 6 years is pretty bad.
Who are some examples of UFA's that were signed by other teams that you would have rather signed with the Raptors?
Virtually anyone the heat grabbed lol. Hartenstein, we had opportunities to trade for players like Claxton and Allen at pretty low costs etc.
It's lack of finding UFAs, making the margin trades like Vasquez in the past etc. We aren't winning any trades or signings. Everything has been a flop.
CazOnReal wrote:Scase wrote:dohboy_24 wrote:
Who are some examples of UFA's that were signed by other teams that you would have rather signed with the Raptors?
Virtually anyone the heat grabbed lol. Hartenstein, we had opportunities to trade for players like Claxton and Allen at pretty low costs etc.
It's lack of finding UFAs, making the margin trades like Vasquez in the past etc. We aren't winning any trades or signings. Everything has been a flop.
Hartenstein, yes, Claxton and Allen no unless one assumes the Raptors missed out on trading for either since Allen and Claxton were RFAs that their teams could match in free agency.
You could also make a case for Markkanen since he was sign and traded to the Cavs for a pretty meh package (If I recall the return correctly anyway) but I digress.