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2023-24 Season: Draft, Trades, and FA Ideas Thread V3.0

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Re: 2023-24 Season: Draft, Trades, and FA Ideas Thread V3.0 

Post#181 » by CazOnReal » Tue Apr 30, 2024 11:40 pm

Rapsfan07 wrote:
CazOnReal wrote:Unless you're getting a young star like Lauri Markkanen (which by all accounts it sounds like it's out of the question), trading our pick if it's Top 4 doesn't make sense unless you're doing something like Keldon Johnson and our pick control back for this year's pick.

And no, you don't trade the pick for LaMelo Ball just because we have free healthcare or whatever. Dude has the worst ankles in the league aside from his brother.

Brown + 19 or 31 to get someone the FO is high on/take a flier on someone like Hunter, Wiggins, etc. whose value is distressed and can be rehabilitated makes more sense if we do end up keeping our pick.


This is a horrible, horrible use of assets.

We'd be much better using these picks in hopes of at least getting a quality role player. Doing this not only makes us better in the short term but it also increases our asset base in the long term.

If a team is willing to adequately compensate us for taking on their long term money and we have no other plans for that space, then sure - we might do well to consider it.

But we shouldn't be looking at selling picks to buy vets at this stage of the rebuild. Picks should be paid to us for our space, whether we keep our pick or not.

To be clear, I am suggesting using Brown to move up and take on a bad contract that will eventually be flipped. For the Hawks, that would involve their pick (12th I think) or Bufkin and Hunter for Bruce Brown + 19th, as an example.

You could also try and do something similar with Boucher but it's much trickier to find a "bad contract" that he'd function as salary relief for.
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Re: 2023-24 Season: Draft, Trades, and FA Ideas Thread V3.0 

Post#182 » by Rapsfan07 » Tue Apr 30, 2024 11:47 pm

CazOnReal wrote:
Rapsfan07 wrote:
CazOnReal wrote:Unless you're getting a young star like Lauri Markkanen (which by all accounts it sounds like it's out of the question), trading our pick if it's Top 4 doesn't make sense unless you're doing something like Keldon Johnson and our pick control back for this year's pick.

And no, you don't trade the pick for LaMelo Ball just because we have free healthcare or whatever. Dude has the worst ankles in the league aside from his brother.

Brown + 19 or 31 to get someone the FO is high on/take a flier on someone like Hunter, Wiggins, etc. whose value is distressed and can be rehabilitated makes more sense if we do end up keeping our pick.


This is a horrible, horrible use of assets.

We'd be much better using these picks in hopes of at least getting a quality role player. Doing this not only makes us better in the short term but it also increases our asset base in the long term.

If a team is willing to adequately compensate us for taking on their long term money and we have no other plans for that space, then sure - we might do well to consider it.

But we shouldn't be looking at selling picks to buy vets at this stage of the rebuild. Picks should be paid to us for our space, whether we keep our pick or not.

To be clear, I am suggesting using Brown to move up and take on a bad contract that will eventually be flipped. For the Hawks, that would involve their pick (12th I think) or Bufkin and Hunter for Bruce Brown + 19th, as an example.

You could also try and do something similar with Boucher but it's much trickier to find a "bad contract" that he'd function as salary relief for.


Ahhh. If we're moving up, that's an entirely different conversation and it also depends on how far we're moving up.

The Atlanta pick is currently 10th but there's still the lottery. It would depend on who is on the board but I would think about it.
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Re: 2023-24 Season: Draft, Trades, and FA Ideas Thread V3.0 

Post#183 » by Mr Swagtastic » Wed May 1, 2024 12:17 am

CazOnReal wrote:Unless you're getting a young star like Lauri Markkanen (which by all accounts it sounds like it's out of the question), trading our pick if it's Top 4 doesn't make sense unless you're doing something like Keldon Johnson and our pick control back for this year's pick.

And no, you don't trade the pick for LaMelo Ball just because we have free healthcare or whatever. Dude has the worst ankles in the league aside from his brother.

Brown + 19 or 31 to get someone the FO is high on/take a flier on someone like Hunter, Wiggins, etc. whose value is distressed and can be rehabilitated makes more sense if we do end up keeping our pick.


I would stay clear of that DeAndre Hunter or Andrew Wiggins deal. They are good players on a playoff team unfortunately the Raptors are not that. But I also think DeAndre Hunter isn't particularly worth the contract on this team.
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Re: 2023-24 Season: Draft, Trades, and FA Ideas Thread V3.0 

Post#184 » by Rapsfan07 » Wed May 1, 2024 1:01 am

Mr Swagtastic wrote:
CazOnReal wrote:Unless you're getting a young star like Lauri Markkanen (which by all accounts it sounds like it's out of the question), trading our pick if it's Top 4 doesn't make sense unless you're doing something like Keldon Johnson and our pick control back for this year's pick.

And no, you don't trade the pick for LaMelo Ball just because we have free healthcare or whatever. Dude has the worst ankles in the league aside from his brother.

Brown + 19 or 31 to get someone the FO is high on/take a flier on someone like Hunter, Wiggins, etc. whose value is distressed and can be rehabilitated makes more sense if we do end up keeping our pick.


I which state clear of that DeAndre Hunter or Andrew Wiggins deal. They are good players on a playoff team unfortunately the Raptors are not that. But I also think DeAndre Hunter isn't particularly worth the contract on this team.


If he's coming with #10 and there's a guy on the board we really like, I MIGHT think about it.

Brown + #19 for Hunter + #10 isn't horrible but like I said, it would depend on who is on the board. Right now, I think I might prefer another mid first at a cheaper price but who knows if that deal would be available and what it might cost to pull that off.
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Re: 2023-24 Season: Draft, Trades, and FA Ideas Thread V3.0 

Post#185 » by agkagk » Wed May 1, 2024 1:53 am

Mr Swagtastic wrote:
CazOnReal wrote:Unless you're getting a young star like Lauri Markkanen (which by all accounts it sounds like it's out of the question), trading our pick if it's Top 4 doesn't make sense unless you're doing something like Keldon Johnson and our pick control back for this year's pick.

And no, you don't trade the pick for LaMelo Ball just because we have free healthcare or whatever. Dude has the worst ankles in the league aside from his brother.

Brown + 19 or 31 to get someone the FO is high on/take a flier on someone like Hunter, Wiggins, etc. whose value is distressed and can be rehabilitated makes more sense if we do end up keeping our pick.


I would stay clear of that DeAndre Hunter or Andrew Wiggins deal. They are good players on a playoff team unfortunately the Raptors are not that. But I also think DeAndre Hunter isn't particularly worth the contract on this team.



Rj quick wiggins barnes jakub


Is a fourth seed in the east.

Winning while developing is the best way to rebuild!

Everyones well slotted in the rotation

Barnes is our 1 rj our 2

kelly, wiggins and jakub is championship level veteran leadership/role players.


Im all for it!
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Re: 2023-24 Season: Draft, Trades, and FA Ideas Thread V3.0 

Post#186 » by Kordic27 » Wed May 1, 2024 2:29 am

agkagk wrote:
Mr Swagtastic wrote:
CazOnReal wrote:Unless you're getting a young star like Lauri Markkanen (which by all accounts it sounds like it's out of the question), trading our pick if it's Top 4 doesn't make sense unless you're doing something like Keldon Johnson and our pick control back for this year's pick.

And no, you don't trade the pick for LaMelo Ball just because we have free healthcare or whatever. Dude has the worst ankles in the league aside from his brother.

Brown + 19 or 31 to get someone the FO is high on/take a flier on someone like Hunter, Wiggins, etc. whose value is distressed and can be rehabilitated makes more sense if we do end up keeping our pick.


I would stay clear of that DeAndre Hunter or Andrew Wiggins deal. They are good players on a playoff team unfortunately the Raptors are not that. But I also think DeAndre Hunter isn't particularly worth the contract on this team.



Rj quick wiggins barnes jakub


Is a fourth seed in the east.

Winning while developing is the best way to rebuild!

Everyones well slotted in the rotation

Barnes is our 1 rj our 2

kelly, wiggins and jakub is championship level veteran leadership/role players.


Im all for it!


I feel like that team is at best a play in team. Better teams
Definitely:
Boston
Milwaukee
New York
Cleveland
Orlando
Philadelphia
Indiana

Miami also probably better.

So 7-8? Best case?

I agree that rebuilding on the fly is better/smarter, but as is we’re not a good team next year, even with good health.
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Re: 2023-24 Season: Draft, Trades, and FA Ideas Thread V3.0 

Post#187 » by agkagk » Wed May 1, 2024 2:42 am

Kordic27 wrote:
agkagk wrote:
Mr Swagtastic wrote:
I would stay clear of that DeAndre Hunter or Andrew Wiggins deal. They are good players on a playoff team unfortunately the Raptors are not that. But I also think DeAndre Hunter isn't particularly worth the contract on this team.



Rj quick wiggins barnes jakub


Is a fourth seed in the east.

Winning while developing is the best way to rebuild!

Everyones well slotted in the rotation

Barnes is our 1 rj our 2

kelly, wiggins and jakub is championship level veteran leadership/role players.


Im all for it!


I feel like that team is at best a play in team. Better teams
Definitely:
Boston
Milwaukee
New York
Cleveland
Orlando
Philadelphia
Indiana

Miami also probably better.

So 7-8? Best case?

I agree that rebuilding on the fly is better/smarter, but as is we’re not a good team next year, even with good health.



Miami are where the raptors were 2 years after the ship.

In denial.

Theyre big fish hunting for a reason.

The league sucks right now and theyre mediocre and capped out.

Knicks. Its a coin flip, but im betting on regression due to the thibs affect.

Brunson and og are like half the cap and heading for the infirmary

Being completely objective:

Rj quick wiggins barnes jakub
Dick, veteran free agent pg (malik beasley, agagi (sorry!), kelly

Thats a complete and balanced roster. The league has like 2 of those right now.

For example; that team is waaaaay better than orlando.

Seriously bro, your underestimating how bad the quality of play and teams in general are right now.

boston and the knicks are the only real teams in the east.
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Re: 2023-24 Season: Draft, Trades, and FA Ideas Thread V3.0 

Post#188 » by CazOnReal » Wed May 1, 2024 7:08 am

agkagk wrote:Miami are where the raptors were 2 years after the ship.

In denial.

Theyre big fish hunting for a reason.

The league sucks right now and theyre mediocre and capped out.

Knicks. Its a coin flip, but im betting on regression due to the thibs affect.

Brunson and og are like half the cap and heading for the infirmary

Being completely objective:

Rj quick wiggins barnes jakub
Dick, veteran free agent pg (malik beasley, agagi (sorry!), kelly

Thats a complete and balanced roster. The league has like 2 of those right now.

For example; that team is waaaaay better than orlando.

Seriously bro, your underestimating how bad the quality of play and teams in general are right now.

boston and the knicks are the only real teams in the east.

Big difference between us and Miami: Miami can and has landed free agents (Donovan Mitchell? Not sure if they'll have the cap space to do so but they can probably free it up easily or initiate a sign and trade) and stars want to be there.

We have to build through the draft or make smart trades.
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Re: 2023-24 Season: Draft, Trades, and FA Ideas Thread V3.0 

Post#189 » by Kordic27 » Wed May 1, 2024 1:50 pm

agkagk wrote:
Miami are where the raptors were 2 years after the ship.

In denial.

Theyre big fish hunting for a reason.

The league sucks right now and theyre mediocre and capped out.

Knicks. Its a coin flip, but im betting on regression due to the thibs affect.

Brunson and og are like half the cap and heading for the infirmary

Being completely objective:

Rj quick wiggins barnes jakub
Dick, veteran free agent pg (malik beasley, agagi (sorry!), kelly

Thats a complete and balanced roster. The league has like 2 of those right now.

For example; that team is waaaaay better than orlando.

Seriously bro, your underestimating how bad the quality of play and teams in general are right now.

boston and the knicks are the only real teams in the east.


I think you might be overestimating the Raptors and underestimating the other teams. I agree the East is weak, but if you look at our starting 5 there
- RJ and EQ were traded for OG (who I love, but is an oft-injured potential rental). That's their value.
- Wiggins has been considered a negative in relation to contract for most of his career, and was awful last year.
- Barnes is good, but is he great? Hard to say given he's been the best player on terrible teams, but if you look at the teams above in the standings, it's pretty rare he'll be the best player on the floor.
- Jakub is a totally fine big man who can not be played in the late stages of tight games.

I mean, we won 25 game last year. Sure we were tanking, but just to not be in the to half of the play-in we have to win 20 more, with virtually the same team. Like, Orlando (who you think we're way better than) is younger, improving, and won 22 more games than us last year. How do we make that jump with Andrew Wiggins?
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Re: 2023-24 Season: Draft, Trades, and FA Ideas Thread V3.0 

Post#190 » by Skybox » Wed May 1, 2024 1:57 pm

IQ was my #1 trade target (for ORL) back at the TD...great pickup for TOR, imo. I'm higher on Barrett than most too.

IQ's numbers look pretty solid post-trade, but just checking in on the general satisfaction with IQ and his big incoming payday...any chance TOR would SnT for a largely pick and cap space package? Maybe dump some big salary you're not loving long term?

How about...
TOR sends IQ ($25 x 4) and Poeltl ($20 x 3)....*I'm assuming Poeltl is okay, but maybe some $$ regret(?)
ORL sends Wendell Carter ($11.5 x 2), Anthony Black, frp #18, DEN 25 frp...*Carter is younger, cheaper, shoots 3's and can switch

I don't expect IQ to be available -can't hurt to ask.
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Re: 2023-24 Season: Draft, Trades, and FA Ideas Thread V3.0 

Post#191 » by Skybox » Wed May 1, 2024 1:58 pm

agkagk wrote:
Kordic27 wrote:
agkagk wrote:

Rj quick wiggins barnes jakub


Is a fourth seed in the east.

Winning while developing is the best way to rebuild!

Everyones well slotted in the rotation

Barnes is our 1 rj our 2

kelly, wiggins and jakub is championship level veteran leadership/role players.


Im all for it!


I feel like that team is at best a play in team. Better teams
Definitely:
Boston
Milwaukee
New York
Cleveland
Orlando
Philadelphia
Indiana

Miami also probably better.

So 7-8? Best case?

I agree that rebuilding on the fly is better/smarter, but as is we’re not a good team next year, even with good health.



Miami are where the raptors were 2 years after the ship.

In denial.

Theyre big fish hunting for a reason.

The league sucks right now and theyre mediocre and capped out.

Knicks. Its a coin flip, but im betting on regression due to the thibs affect.

Brunson and og are like half the cap and heading for the infirmary

Being completely objective:

Rj quick wiggins barnes jakub
Dick, veteran free agent pg (malik beasley, agagi (sorry!), kelly

Thats a complete and balanced roster. The league has like 2 of those right now.

For example; that team is waaaaay better than orlando.

Seriously bro, your underestimating how bad the quality of play and teams in general are right now.

boston and the knicks are the only real teams in the east.


"Being completely objective" :lol:
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Re: 2023-24 Season: Draft, Trades, and FA Ideas Thread V3.0 

Post#192 » by MiamiSPX » Wed May 1, 2024 2:37 pm

Skybox wrote:IQ was my #1 trade target (for ORL) back at the TD...great pickup for TOR, imo. I'm higher on Barrett than most too.

IQ's numbers look pretty solid post-trade, but just checking in on the general satisfaction with IQ and his big incoming payday...any chance TOR would SnT for a largely pick and cap space package? Maybe dump some big salary you're not loving long term?

How about...
TOR sends IQ ($25 x 4) and Poeltl ($20 x 3)....*I'm assuming Poeltl is okay, but maybe some $$ regret(?)
ORL sends Wendell Carter ($11.5 x 2), Anthony Black, frp #18, DEN 25 frp...*Carter is younger, cheaper, shoots 3's and can switch

I don't expect IQ to be available -can't hurt to ask.


There are a few misconceptions in your post. First, IQ is going go get way, way more than 4/100.

Second, most of us who hated the Poeltl trade universally agree that his salary is not an issue. It's actually a pretty darn good contract for your 5th starter. We just hated the timing and acquisition cost.

Lastly, the Raps will probably just hand IQ his max and there is not a chance in hell he ends up anywhere else.

Can I interest you in one Jalen McDaniels though?
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Re: 2023-24 Season: Draft, Trades, and FA Ideas Thread V3.0 

Post#193 » by billy_hoyle » Wed May 1, 2024 2:57 pm

MiamiSPX wrote:
Skybox wrote:IQ was my #1 trade target (for ORL) back at the TD...great pickup for TOR, imo. I'm higher on Barrett than most too.

IQ's numbers look pretty solid post-trade, but just checking in on the general satisfaction with IQ and his big incoming payday...any chance TOR would SnT for a largely pick and cap space package? Maybe dump some big salary you're not loving long term?

How about...
TOR sends IQ ($25 x 4) and Poeltl ($20 x 3)....*I'm assuming Poeltl is okay, but maybe some $$ regret(?)
ORL sends Wendell Carter ($11.5 x 2), Anthony Black, frp #18, DEN 25 frp...*Carter is younger, cheaper, shoots 3's and can switch

I don't expect IQ to be available -can't hurt to ask.


There are a few misconceptions in your post. First, IQ is going go get way, way more than 4/100.

Second, most of us who hated the Poeltl trade universally agree that his salary is not an issue. It's actually a pretty darn good contract for your 5th starter. We just hated the timing and acquisition cost.

Lastly, the Raps will probably just hand IQ his max and there is not a chance in hell he ends up anywhere else.

Can I interest you in one Jalen McDaniels though?


This guy does not speak for the Raps board. I hope to hell IQ ain't getting 'way, way' more than $25m per year.

I think Yak is a neutral contract, not 'pretty darn good'.

Your trade package is a solid offer that I doubt we'd take based on us obviously liking the Barnes IQ fit. Value is reasonable tho imo
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Re: 2023-24 Season: Draft, Trades, and FA Ideas Thread V3.0 

Post#194 » by Kordic27 » Wed May 1, 2024 3:06 pm

billy_hoyle wrote:
MiamiSPX wrote:
Skybox wrote:IQ was my #1 trade target (for ORL) back at the TD...great pickup for TOR, imo. I'm higher on Barrett than most too.

IQ's numbers look pretty solid post-trade, but just checking in on the general satisfaction with IQ and his big incoming payday...any chance TOR would SnT for a largely pick and cap space package? Maybe dump some big salary you're not loving long term?

How about...
TOR sends IQ ($25 x 4) and Poeltl ($20 x 3)....*I'm assuming Poeltl is okay, but maybe some $$ regret(?)
ORL sends Wendell Carter ($11.5 x 2), Anthony Black, frp #18, DEN 25 frp...*Carter is younger, cheaper, shoots 3's and can switch

I don't expect IQ to be available -can't hurt to ask.


There are a few misconceptions in your post. First, IQ is going go get way, way more than 4/100.

Second, most of us who hated the Poeltl trade universally agree that his salary is not an issue. It's actually a pretty darn good contract for your 5th starter. We just hated the timing and acquisition cost.

Lastly, the Raps will probably just hand IQ his max and there is not a chance in hell he ends up anywhere else.

Can I interest you in one Jalen McDaniels though?


This guy does not speak for the Raps board. I hope to hell IQ ain't getting 'way, way' more than $25m per year.

I think Yak is a neutral contract, not 'pretty darn good'.

Your trade package is a solid offer that I doubt we'd take based on us obviously liking the Barnes IQ fit. Value is reasonable tho imo


I think IQ is going to get a ton. Factors being - crappy FA class, teams with money, and NY will sign OG, and Masai doesn't want to look like he traded OG for just Barrett, so he'll pay whatever.
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Re: 2023-24 Season: Draft, Trades, and FA Ideas Thread V3.0 

Post#195 » by OakleyDokely » Wed May 1, 2024 3:07 pm

Vassell just got 5/136. McDaniels got 5/131. I think IQ will be in that range with a year adjusted inflation.
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Re: 2023-24 Season: Draft, Trades, and FA Ideas Thread V3.0 

Post#196 » by MiamiSPX » Wed May 1, 2024 3:12 pm

billy_hoyle wrote:
MiamiSPX wrote:
Skybox wrote:IQ was my #1 trade target (for ORL) back at the TD...great pickup for TOR, imo. I'm higher on Barrett than most too.

IQ's numbers look pretty solid post-trade, but just checking in on the general satisfaction with IQ and his big incoming payday...any chance TOR would SnT for a largely pick and cap space package? Maybe dump some big salary you're not loving long term?

How about...
TOR sends IQ ($25 x 4) and Poeltl ($20 x 3)....*I'm assuming Poeltl is okay, but maybe some $$ regret(?)
ORL sends Wendell Carter ($11.5 x 2), Anthony Black, frp #18, DEN 25 frp...*Carter is younger, cheaper, shoots 3's and can switch

I don't expect IQ to be available -can't hurt to ask.


There are a few misconceptions in your post. First, IQ is going go get way, way more than 4/100.

Second, most of us who hated the Poeltl trade universally agree that his salary is not an issue. It's actually a pretty darn good contract for your 5th starter. We just hated the timing and acquisition cost.

Lastly, the Raps will probably just hand IQ his max and there is not a chance in hell he ends up anywhere else.

Can I interest you in one Jalen McDaniels though?


This guy does not speak for the Raps board. I hope to hell IQ ain't getting 'way, way' more than $25m per year.

I think Yak is a neutral contract, not 'pretty darn good'.

Your trade package is a solid offer that I doubt we'd take based on us obviously liking the Barnes IQ fit. Value is reasonable tho imo


I was referring more to the total contract, than the per annum amount. He is not getting 100 million over 4 years. My guess is the full 5 years and closer to 150M. This is not what I want to happen, this is just my guess on what will happen. Masai has even boasted (weird if you ask me) about how they "take care of our guys".
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Re: 2023-24 Season: Draft, Trades, and FA Ideas Thread V3.0 

Post#197 » by dagger » Wed May 1, 2024 3:18 pm

MiamiSPX wrote:
billy_hoyle wrote:
MiamiSPX wrote:
There are a few misconceptions in your post. First, IQ is going go get way, way more than 4/100.

Second, most of us who hated the Poeltl trade universally agree that his salary is not an issue. It's actually a pretty darn good contract for your 5th starter. We just hated the timing and acquisition cost.

Lastly, the Raps will probably just hand IQ his max and there is not a chance in hell he ends up anywhere else.

Can I interest you in one Jalen McDaniels though?


This guy does not speak for the Raps board. I hope to hell IQ ain't getting 'way, way' more than $25m per year.

I think Yak is a neutral contract, not 'pretty darn good'.

Your trade package is a solid offer that I doubt we'd take based on us obviously liking the Barnes IQ fit. Value is reasonable tho imo


I was referring more to the total contract, than the per annum amount. He is not getting 100 million over 4 years. My guess is the full 5 years and closer to 150M. This is not what I want to happen, this is just my guess on what will happen. Masai has even boasted (weird if you ask me) about how they "take care of our guys".


That's a little high. And a more likely scenario is something like a four year deal with a fourth year opt out so he can get one more big contract covering the balance of his prime.
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Re: 2023-24 Season: Draft, Trades, and FA Ideas Thread V3.0 

Post#198 » by OakleyDokely » Wed May 1, 2024 3:21 pm

I'd prefer to give IQ a 5 year deal then go shorter.

By going long, you can get the average annual cost down, plus, you'd be getting all his prime years (25-29), which is pretty low risk. I'd hate for him to go back on the market at 27-28 years old, with a much higher cap in place.
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Re: 2023-24 Season: Draft, Trades, and FA Ideas Thread V3.0 

Post#199 » by OakleyDokely » Wed May 1, 2024 3:39 pm

Poeltl/Barnes/Barrett/IQ only played 234 minutes together and in those minutes they were a +10.8. It will be interesting to see how they mesh over a bigger sample, and how Dick plays alongside them.

One thing is for sure, they will need 48 minutes of solid rim protection just to be a mediocre defense instead of terrible, so it's important that Poeltl is healthy and they will need to add another quality defensive big to the rotation.
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Re: 2023-24 Season: Draft, Trades, and FA Ideas Thread V3.0 

Post#200 » by MiamiSPX » Wed May 1, 2024 3:41 pm

dagger wrote:
MiamiSPX wrote:
billy_hoyle wrote:
This guy does not speak for the Raps board. I hope to hell IQ ain't getting 'way, way' more than $25m per year.

I think Yak is a neutral contract, not 'pretty darn good'.

Your trade package is a solid offer that I doubt we'd take based on us obviously liking the Barnes IQ fit. Value is reasonable tho imo


I was referring more to the total contract, than the per annum amount. He is not getting 100 million over 4 years. My guess is the full 5 years and closer to 150M. This is not what I want to happen, this is just my guess on what will happen. Masai has even boasted (weird if you ask me) about how they "take care of our guys".


That's a little high. And a more likely scenario is something like a four year deal with a fourth year opt out so he can get one more big contract covering the balance of his prime.


Probably a little high but I'd like to err on the side of overestimation in order to not be disappointed. I think it's going to be high enough that quite a few on here will complain (endlessly).

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