2024 NBA DRAFT THREAD 3

[HumbleRen]

I think people are obsessing too much over this lottery pick. Odds are it conveys to San Antonio. They have a 56% likelihood of getting the pick. Recent draft lotto history for pick 6:

2014: Los Angeles Lakers fell to 7. (Julius Randle)

2015: Sacramento Kings stayed at 6 (drafted Willie Cauley-Stein).

2016: New Orleans Pelicans stayed at 6 (Buddy Hield).

2017: Minnesota Timberwolves dropped to 7 (Lauri Markkanen).

2018: Chicago Bulls dropped to 7 (Wendell Carter Jr.)

2019: Washington Wizards dropped to 9 (Rui Hachimura).

2020: New York Knicks dropped to 8 (Obi Toppin).

2021: Golden State Warriors dropped to 7 (Jonathan Kuminga).

2022: Portland Trail Blazers dropped to 7 (Shaedon Sharpe).

2023: Orlando Magic stayed at 6 (Anthony Black).

So that's 7/10 draft lotteries went the wrong way for those picking at 6. It is kind of the most cursed pick and I am not going to get all tied up in knots fretting over Topic over Sheppard - no point.

Same. My expectations is for the pick to go to the Spurs.

It's just more fun to talk about the lottery prospects rather than the 19th pick

[Dalek]

Watch on YouTube

Why does he look like a 50 year old Kevin McHale with Thinner disease?

Or he just ordered the death of Shoshannah's family after drinking a tall glass of milk.

He is an interesting player because based on film he should have NBA interest:

Sandfort:
Good positional size at 6'7" or 6'8"
Quick and high release point on the jumper
Capable shooter off movement
Off the dribble - 42%
94 made threes / 38%
FT 91%
62% at the rim
To me this is very Keegan Murray-esque.

He seems like he moves well and the 15% AST looks like he is not just a chucker.

[Dalek]

I think people are obsessing too much over this lottery pick. Odds are it conveys to San Antonio. They have a 56% likelihood of getting the pick. Recent draft lotto history for pick 6:

2014: Los Angeles Lakers fell to 7. (Julius Randle)

2015: Sacramento Kings stayed at 6 (drafted Willie Cauley-Stein).

2016: New Orleans Pelicans stayed at 6 (Buddy Hield).

2017: Minnesota Timberwolves dropped to 7 (Lauri Markkanen).

2018: Chicago Bulls dropped to 7 (Wendell Carter Jr.)

2019: Washington Wizards dropped to 9 (Rui Hachimura).

2020: New York Knicks dropped to 8 (Obi Toppin).

2021: Golden State Warriors dropped to 7 (Jonathan Kuminga).

2022: Portland Trail Blazers dropped to 7 (Shaedon Sharpe).

2023: Orlando Magic stayed at 6 (Anthony Black).

So that's 7/10 draft lotteries went the wrong way for those picking at 6. It is kind of the most cursed pick and I am not going to get all tied up in knots fretting over Topic over Sheppard - no point.

Same. My expectations is for the pick to go to the Spurs.

It's just more fun to talk about the lottery prospects rather than the 19th pick

I totally get it, but it will hit collective sanity bad when we lose the pick. The odds for me are better that we target the Knicks for their 24th or 25th pick for Bruce Brown. The potential 15-35 range is who we should consider rather than the top guys. Maybe we will be lucky and get a Cam Whitmore / GG Jackson like drop.

[Mr.Raptorsingh]

Carrington (or Simpson)
Quickley
Barrett
Barnes
Poeltl

='Ship

[Yallbecrazy]

I think people are obsessing too much over this lottery pick. Odds are it conveys to San Antonio. They have a 56% likelihood of getting the pick. Recent draft lotto history for pick 6:

2014: Los Angeles Lakers fell to 7. (Julius Randle)

2015: Sacramento Kings stayed at 6 (drafted Willie Cauley-Stein).

2016: New Orleans Pelicans stayed at 6 (Buddy Hield).

2017: Minnesota Timberwolves dropped to 7 (Lauri Markkanen).

2018: Chicago Bulls dropped to 7 (Wendell Carter Jr.)

2019: Washington Wizards dropped to 9 (Rui Hachimura).

2020: New York Knicks dropped to 8 (Obi Toppin).

2021: Golden State Warriors dropped to 7 (Jonathan Kuminga).

2022: Portland Trail Blazers dropped to 7 (Shaedon Sharpe).

2023: Orlando Magic stayed at 6 (Anthony Black).

So that's 7/10 draft lotteries went the wrong way for those picking at 6. It is kind of the most cursed pick and I am not going to get all tied up in knots fretting over Topic over Sheppard - no point.

Same. My expectations is for the pick to go to the Spurs.

It's just more fun to talk about the lottery prospects rather than the 19th pick

I totally get it, but it will hit collective sanity bad when we lose the pick. The odds for me are better that we target the Knicks for their 24th or 25th pick for Bruce Brown. The potential 15-35 range is who we should consider rather than the top guys. Maybe we will be lucky and get a Cam Whitmore / GG Jackson like drop.

No one is giving up a 1st for Bruce Brown unless it's to take on a negative contract that is worth a first all on its own.

[Johnston]

When I watch Topic tape, I don't see an NBA impact player. I don't like his shot or athleticism. He looks clunky out there. I keep trying to like him as a prospect and I just don't get it as a top 6 pick. I see a prospect who's sizzle is coming from where he plays and his height not his product on the floor.

Sarr, Holland, should be 1/2 imo.

Risacher, Williams, Reed, Dillingham and Buszas (or however you spell it) are the next level down imo.

Castle, Knecht, Clingan, Topic are the next tier below.

[Risk101]

When I watch Topic tape, I don't see an NBA impact player. I don't like his shot or athleticism. He looks clunky out there. I keep trying to like him as a prospect and I just don't get it as a top 6 pick. I see a prospect who's sizzle is coming from where he plays and his height not his product on the floor.

Sarr, Holland, should be 1/2 imo.

Risacher, Williams, Reed, Dillingham and Buszas (or however you spell it) are the next level down imo.

Castle, Knecht, Clingan, Topic are the next tier below.

Yeah alot of potential types in this draft. The thing that worries me the most is the talent really drops off after the top 5 depending on who gets drafted. The fact that Topic is even in the running for top 10 shows you how bad this draft is.

I hope the Spurs get this year pick because I would hate to lose on really good talent in next years draft.

[Syd-TK3]

If I had to guess I'd say we probably jump to 3rd

[LoveMyRaps]

10 tries - only retained pick 3 times.

It ain't lookin good boys

[MEDIC]

I think the best I have done is 7/10 tries for keeping the pick. Lowest was probably 2/10. It's a crapshoot.

[SpezNc]

I think people are obsessing too much over this lottery pick. Odds are it conveys to San Antonio. They have a 56% likelihood of getting the pick. Recent draft lotto history for pick 6:

2014: Los Angeles Lakers fell to 7. (Julius Randle)

2015: Sacramento Kings stayed at 6 (drafted Willie Cauley-Stein).

2016: New Orleans Pelicans stayed at 6 (Buddy Hield).

2017: Minnesota Timberwolves dropped to 7 (Lauri Markkanen).

2018: Chicago Bulls dropped to 7 (Wendell Carter Jr.)

2019: Washington Wizards dropped to 9 (Rui Hachimura).

2020: New York Knicks dropped to 8 (Obi Toppin).

2021: Golden State Warriors dropped to 7 (Jonathan Kuminga).

2022: Portland Trail Blazers dropped to 7 (Shaedon Sharpe).

2023: Orlando Magic stayed at 6 (Anthony Black).

So that's 7/10 draft lotteries went the wrong way for those picking at 6. It is kind of the most cursed pick and I am not going to get all tied up in knots fretting over Topic over Sheppard - no point.

Technically at some point that pick will be due to a correction.

Winning the lottery would do that

[Dalek]

G-League Elite Camp list:

Read on Twitter

About 6 will move on from this list to the NBA Combine. My picks to make the next jump:

1. Blake Hinson (Pitt) - 6'7 forward is walking bucketgetter 42% on threes (110/261!!!)
2. Jaedon LeDee (SDSU) - 6'7 forward who is unstoppable in the post (21ppg /8 reb)
3. Isaiah Crawford (LTech) - 6'6 forward who is a two-way threat (41% from three). Wish he didn't have two major knee injuries.
4. Mantas Rubstavicius (NBL) - 6'6 guard/forward who shot 43% from three and played a really tough playoff games against grown men.
5. Walter Clayton Jr. (Flor) - 6'2 guard who showed a ton of clutch shotmaking during the March tournament. I expect him to show out here.
6. KJ Lewis (Arizona) - 6'4 guard who can really get steals and score in transition. These types of games can really showcase an athlete.

Honorable mention to Keion Brooks Jr. from Washington. I watched this guy in-person and he looks like an NBA player at 6'7/6'8 who scored 21 PPG.

[Yallbecrazy]

Guys I flipped a coin 10 times and 7 were tails. I don't know what that means, but I thought I'd share.

[CazOnReal]

I think people are obsessing too much over this lottery pick. Odds are it conveys to San Antonio. They have a 56% likelihood of getting the pick. Recent draft lotto history for pick 6:

2014: Los Angeles Lakers fell to 7. (Julius Randle)

2015: Sacramento Kings stayed at 6 (drafted Willie Cauley-Stein).

2016: New Orleans Pelicans stayed at 6 (Buddy Hield).

2017: Minnesota Timberwolves dropped to 7 (Lauri Markkanen).

2018: Chicago Bulls dropped to 7 (Wendell Carter Jr.)

2019: Washington Wizards dropped to 9 (Rui Hachimura).

2020: New York Knicks dropped to 8 (Obi Toppin).

2021: Golden State Warriors dropped to 7 (Jonathan Kuminga).

2022: Portland Trail Blazers dropped to 7 (Shaedon Sharpe).

2023: Orlando Magic stayed at 6 (Anthony Black).

So that's 7/10 draft lotteries went the wrong way for those picking at 6. It is kind of the most cursed pick and I am not going to get all tied up in knots fretting over Topic over Sheppard - no point.

So what you're saying is that there's less of a chance it drops this time

[BoyzNTheHood]

10 tries - only retained pick 3 times.

It ain't lookin good boys

Yeah, mathematically we’re at a disadvantage so it’s actually more likely that the pick goes to the Spurs. If we get it it’s because we got lucky.

[SpezNc]

10 tries - only retained pick 3 times.

It ain't lookin good boys

Yeah, mathematically we’re at a disadvantage so it’s actually more likely that the pick goes to the Spurs. If we get it it’s because we got lucky.

Odds are almost 50-50.

There is only 18% more chance that pick convey versus non convey

(54%-46%=8%)/ Base scenario of keeping it of 46% = 17,39%

It’s almost literally a coin flip.

Being lucky would be actually winning the very top pick

But convey versus non conveying is almost same odds.

The fact it’s appears that conveying is much more probable is just an illusion. It’s because we aren’t using the platform enough for the odds to even out.

[BoyzNTheHood]

10 tries - only retained pick 3 times.

It ain't lookin good boys

Yeah, mathematically we’re at a disadvantage so it’s actually more likely that the pick goes to the Spurs. If we get it it’s because we got lucky.

Odds are almost 50-50.

There is only 18% more chance that pick convey versus non convey

(54%-46%=8%)/ Base scenario of keeping it of 46% = 17,39%

It’s almost literally a coin flip.

Being lucky would be actually winning the very top pick

But convey versus non conveying is almost same odds.

The fact it’s appears that conveying is much more probable is just an illusion. It’s because we aren’t using the platform enough for the odds to even out.

That’s not how it works. Yes, overall we’re around 50% to go top 6, but in reality the odds of each of those picks coming to us are individually less than 10% each. Whereas the odds of us picking 7th is almost 30% on its own, not to mention the odds of us getting 8th is 20.5%. Getting one of those low percentage odds picks in the top 6 to convey would be luck.

[Rapsfan07]

When I watch Topic tape, I don't see an NBA impact player. I don't like his shot or athleticism. He looks clunky out there. I keep trying to like him as a prospect and I just don't get it as a top 6 pick. I see a prospect who's sizzle is coming from where he plays and his height not his product on the floor.

Sarr, Holland, should be 1/2 imo.

Risacher, Williams, Reed, Dillingham and Buszas (or however you spell it) are the next level down imo.

Castle, Knecht, Clingan, Topic are the next tier below.

Yeah that's my draft board as well at #6. It should be:

1. Sarr
2. Holland
3. Dillingham
4. Williams/Buzelis
5. Buzelis/Williams

If it's not one of these guys, we need to shop the pick. If we can't get anyone worthwhile, just send it to the Spurs in exchange for extinguishing the obligations on the future picks and move on.

I think Castle, Knecht, Clingan and Topic are probably NBA players but we have two other picks when we can grab rotation guys. This pick needs to be a guy with a chance at being a high lever starter/star or else I'd rather just secure our own future firsts.

[SpezNc]

Yeah, mathematically we’re at a disadvantage so it’s actually more likely that the pick goes to the Spurs. If we get it it’s because we got lucky.

Odds are almost 50-50.

There is only 18% more chance that pick convey versus non convey

(54%-46%=8%)/ Base scenario of keeping it of 46% = 17,39%

It’s almost literally a coin flip.

Being lucky would be actually winning the very top pick

But convey versus non conveying is almost same odds.

The fact it’s appears that conveying is much more probable is just an illusion. It’s because we aren’t using the platform enough for the odds to even out.

That’s not how it works. Yes, overall we’re around 50% to go top 6, but in reality the odds of each of those picks coming to us are individually less than 10% each. Whereas the odds of us picking 7th is almost 30% on its own, not to mention the odds of us getting 8th is 20.5%. Getting one of those low percentage odds picks in the top 6 to convey would be luck.

I don’t think it matters that the 46% is an aggregate.

At the end of the day I agree that dropping to 7 is indeed the individual more probable scenario.

But in aggregate with over 1000 simulations we should keep it 460 times and losing it 540.

Yes this could mean a low percentage event to happens. It’s like if we have multiple tickets with 10% each. Winning on the first try could be luck. But winning it on the 4 or 5 try would not necessarily be luck. It will just be the odds.

Anyway we are probably saying the same thing but only from a different angle.

What is interesting is that keeping our pick actually means more chance than not that the pick is top4 compare to #6.

[WuTang_OG]

Odds are almost 50-50.

There is only 18% more chance that pick convey versus non convey

(54%-46%=8%)/ Base scenario of keeping it of 46% = 17,39%

It’s almost literally a coin flip.

Being lucky would be actually winning the very top pick

But convey versus non conveying is almost same odds.

The fact it’s appears that conveying is much more probable is just an illusion. It’s because we aren’t using the platform enough for the odds to even out.

That’s not how it works. Yes, overall we’re around 50% to go top 6, but in reality the odds of each of those picks coming to us are individually less than 10% each. Whereas the odds of us picking 7th is almost 30% on its own, not to mention the odds of us getting 8th is 20.5%. Getting one of those low percentage odds picks in the top 6 to convey would be luck.

I don’t think it matters that the 46% is an aggregate.

At the end of the day I agree that dropping to 7 is indeed the individual more probable scenario.

But in aggregate with over 1000 simulations we should keep it 460 times and losing it 540.

Yes this could mean a low percentage event to happens. It’s like if we have multiple tickets with 10% each. Winning on the first try could be luck. But winning it on the 4 or 5 try would not necessarily be luck. It will just be the odds.

Anyway we are probably saying the same thing but only from a different angle.

What is interesting is that keeping our pick actually means more chance than not that the pick is top4 compare to #6.

Its top 4 or nothing