2024 NBA DRAFT THREAD 3

[LoveMyRaps]

Refs are handing this game to the Knicks...

Wow.

[SpezNc]

That’s not how it works. Yes, overall we’re around 50% to go top 6, but in reality the odds of each of those picks coming to us are individually less than 10% each. Whereas the odds of us picking 7th is almost 30% on its own, not to mention the odds of us getting 8th is 20.5%. Getting one of those low percentage odds picks in the top 6 to convey would be luck.

I don’t think it matters that the 46% is an aggregate.

At the end of the day I agree that dropping to 7 is indeed the individual more probable scenario.

But in aggregate with over 1000 simulations we should keep it 460 times and losing it 540.

Yes this could mean a low percentage event to happens. It’s like if we have multiple tickets with 10% each. Winning on the first try could be luck. But winning it on the 4 or 5 try would not necessarily be luck. It will just be the odds.

Anyway we are probably saying the same thing but only from a different angle.

What is interesting is that keeping our pick actually means more chance than not that the pick is top4 compare to #6.

Its top 4 or nothing

Yeah even if I am “team keep the pick all the way” someone could argue that the worse scenario would actually be keeping #6 and the best one is winning #1

[DreamTeam09]

Keys to Know For Toronto
-Toronto has a 45.8% chance to keep its first-round pick this year. The pick was traded to San Antonio for Jakob Poeltl at the 2023 NBA trade deadline.
-Toronto has a 37.2% chance to land a top-four pick and an 8.6% chance to stay at No. 6.
-The Raptors cannot land the No. 5 pick.
-Toronto has a 9% chance to land the No. 1 selection. If the Raptors do keep their pick, the most likely outcome is it becomes the No. 4 selection.
-There’s a 29.8% chance the pick ends up at No. 7 and is conveyed to San Antonio. That’s the most likely outcome of any of the potential landing spots.
-Toronto’s pick can only fall as far as No. 10 if four teams behind the Raptors jump into the top four in the draft.

What to Watch For
The draft order is decided by a lottery that will select which of the 14 teams will earn top four selections. Once the top-four picks are decided, the remaining teams will be slotted in reverse order of their record this past season.

For Toronto, that means the hope is none of the teams who finished with a better record than the Raptors jump into the top four. If one of the eight teams behind the Raptors does clinch a top-four selection, Toronto’s chances of keeping its pick will be greatly diminished. For example, Toronto cannot land the No. 6 pick if one of the teams behind the Raptors moves up in the draft lottery.

The key, therefore, will be watching to ensure the order of picks 14 through seven remains as expected. If the order of the teams revealed does change, the chances are the Raptors will be without their first-round pick.

[ItsDanger]

Watch on YouTube

;si=SFdd2M7FT0q0AUF8

I think he might beat the low to mid 30s current consensus.

[grant101]

I don’t think it matters that the 46% is an aggregate.

At the end of the day I agree that dropping to 7 is indeed the individual more probable scenario.

But in aggregate with over 1000 simulations we should keep it 460 times and losing it 540.

Yes this could mean a low percentage event to happens. It’s like if we have multiple tickets with 10% each. Winning on the first try could be luck. But winning it on the 4 or 5 try would not necessarily be luck. It will just be the odds.

Anyway we are probably saying the same thing but only from a different angle.

What is interesting is that keeping our pick actually means more chance than not that the pick is top4 compare to #6.

Its top 4 or nothing

Yeah even if I am “team keep the pick all the way” someone could argue that the worse scenario would actually be keeping #6 and the best one is winning #1

This is kinda where I'm at. Outside of Sarr, I can talk myself into or out of the names frequently mentioned in the top 6. Each player (outside of potentially Clingan, who doesn't make sense for Toronto) has HUGE question marks. I like aspects of many of their games, but see circumstances where each underwhelms if we draft them into our team. Even if you assume our FO has 1-2 favourites among them and see things we don't, you've gotta assume that the those players are gone by the time #6 roles around. If, instead, you choose to reach down in the draft for another name you like (e.g., Jared McCain, Devin Carter,etc.), then you're stuck paying an end of lottery guy the salary of a #6 pick.

I think the better option may be to just convey a #7/#8 pick in a weak draft in terms of stars, use the cap space this summer to either sign a player you like or take on bad money for more assets, and generally own your future.

[WuTang_OG]

Its top 4 or nothing

Yeah even if I am “team keep the pick all the way” someone could argue that the worse scenario would actually be keeping #6 and the best one is winning #1

This is kinda where I'm at. Outside of Sarr, I can talk myself into or out of the names frequently mentioned in the top 6. Each player (outside of potentially Clingan, who doesn't make sense for Toronto) has HUGE question marks. I like aspects of many of their games, but see circumstances where each underwhelms if we draft them into our team. Even if you assume our FO has 1-2 favourites among them and see things we don't, you've gotta assume that the those players are gone by the time #6 roles around. If, instead, you choose to reach down in the draft for another name you like (e.g., Jared McCain, Devin Carter,etc.), then you're stuck paying an end of lottery guy the salary of a #6 pick.

I think the better option may be to just convey a #7/#8 pick in a weak draft in terms of stars, use the cap space this summer to either sign a player you like or take on bad money for more assets, and generally own your future.

I honestly dont mind giving it up at this point. Fresh start for next season where we will probably be outside of the play in again in a better draft

[Rapsfan07]

Its top 4 or nothing

Yeah even if I am “team keep the pick all the way” someone could argue that the worse scenario would actually be keeping #6 and the best one is winning #1

This is kinda where I'm at. Outside of Sarr, I can talk myself into or out of the names frequently mentioned in the top 6. Each player (outside of potentially Clingan, who doesn't make sense for Toronto) has HUGE question marks. I like aspects of many of their games, but see circumstances where each underwhelms if we draft them into our team. Even if you assume our FO has 1-2 favourites among them and see things we don't, you've gotta assume that the those players are gone by the time #6 roles around. If, instead, you choose to reach down in the draft for another name you like (e.g., Jared McCain, Devin Carter,etc.), then you're stuck paying an end of lottery guy the salary of a #6 pick.

I think the better option may be to just convey a #7/#8 pick in a weak draft in terms of stars, use the cap space this summer to either sign a player you like or take on bad money for more assets, and generally own your future.

Meh. There's pros and cons either way.

The pick is best viewed as currency. If we keep the pick and we don't like the guys who are on the board where we are, you can always move down. In doing so, you might be able to offload salary or pick up some current/future first, acquire a vet or another quality young player. You can even give the pick to the Spurs so that you don't owe any future firsts. There's lots of things you can do.

Whereas all of these options are not available to you if you don't keep the pick. So yeah, I really don't get people who are indifferent. It's just a better place to be if we keep it.

[God Squad]

Man, the lottery needs to hurry up. I need closure...

[BoyzNTheHood]

Man, the lottery needs to hurry up. I need closure...

More days…..

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Yeah even if I am “team keep the pick all the way” someone could argue that the worse scenario would actually be keeping #6 and the best one is winning #1

This is kinda where I'm at. Outside of Sarr, I can talk myself into or out of the names frequently mentioned in the top 6. Each player (outside of potentially Clingan, who doesn't make sense for Toronto) has HUGE question marks. I like aspects of many of their games, but see circumstances where each underwhelms if we draft them into our team. Even if you assume our FO has 1-2 favourites among them and see things we don't, you've gotta assume that the those players are gone by the time #6 roles around. If, instead, you choose to reach down in the draft for another name you like (e.g., Jared McCain, Devin Carter,etc.), then you're stuck paying an end of lottery guy the salary of a #6 pick.

I think the better option may be to just convey a #7/#8 pick in a weak draft in terms of stars, use the cap space this summer to either sign a player you like or take on bad money for more assets, and generally own your future.

I honestly dont mind giving it up at this point. Fresh start for next season where we will probably be outside of the play in again in a better draft

If Raps don't tank 2025 Masai is even more of an idiot than capable of being imagined, it's one of the most loaded drafts in NBA history. It's so loaded that many projections have Isaiah Evans outside of the lottery and Evans had 27.5 pts on 53/43/84 shooting w/ 6.3 reb 3 ast 2.4 stl 1.3 blks in HS and is doing all kinds of impressive stuff lately. People compare him to BI but BI can't defend like Evans. Evans makes Matas Buzelis look like a choir boy.

I mean with his size, athleticism, self-creation, shooting efficiency and ability to do a bit of everything as well as seriously be disruptive on D he'd easily be my #1 this year and it wouldn't take me more than 10 seconds to figure it out. Next year is just absolutely insane, I'd probably take at least 12 players #1 overall right now in this year's draft if not more.

Long story short losing the pick this year would at least save Masai from himself in the case he refuses to tank as picks 7 to 14 will have players infinitely more attractive than anyone available this year. It's a no brainer.

[ArthurVandelay]

Man, the lottery needs to hurry up. I need closure...

More days…..

True, but really looking forward to...



...more days.

[Psubs]

If Raps don't tank 2025 Masai is even more of an idiot than capable of being imagined, it's one of the most loaded drafts in NBA history. It's so loaded that many projections have Isaiah Evans outside of the lottery and Evans had 27.5 pts on 53/43/84 shooting w/ 6.3 reb 3 ast 2.4 stl 1.3 blks in HS and is doing all kinds of impressive stuff lately. People compare him to BI but BI can't defend like Evans. Evans makes Matas Buzelis look like a choir boy.

I mean with his size, athleticism, self-creation, shooting efficiency and ability to do a bit of everything as well as seriously be disruptive on D he'd easily be my #1 this year and it wouldn't take me more than 10 seconds to figure it out. Next year is just absolutely insane, I'd probably take at least 12 players #1 overall right now in this year's draft if not more.

Long story short losing the pick this year would at least save Masai from himself in the case he refuses to tank as picks 7 to 14 will have players infinitely more attractive than anyone available this year. It's a no brainer.

Also Stojakovic's kid is projected in the 20's.

[Pointgod]

Keys to Know For Toronto
-Toronto has a 45.8% chance to keep its first-round pick this year. The pick was traded to San Antonio for Jakob Poeltl at the 2023 NBA trade deadline.
-Toronto has a 37.2% chance to land a top-four pick and an 8.6% chance to stay at No. 6.
-The Raptors cannot land the No. 5 pick.
-Toronto has a 9% chance to land the No. 1 selection. If the Raptors do keep their pick, the most likely outcome is it becomes the No. 4 selection.
-There’s a 29.8% chance the pick ends up at No. 7 and is conveyed to San Antonio. That’s the most likely outcome of any of the potential landing spots.
-Toronto’s pick can only fall as far as No. 10 if four teams behind the Raptors jump into the top four in the draft.

What to Watch For
The draft order is decided by a lottery that will select which of the 14 teams will earn top four selections. Once the top-four picks are decided, the remaining teams will be slotted in reverse order of their record this past season.

For Toronto, that means the hope is none of the teams who finished with a better record than the Raptors jump into the top four. If one of the eight teams behind the Raptors does clinch a top-four selection, Toronto’s chances of keeping its pick will be greatly diminished. For example, Toronto cannot land the No. 6 pick if one of the teams behind the Raptors moves up in the draft lottery.

The key, therefore, will be watching to ensure the order of picks 14 through seven remains as expected. If the order of the teams revealed does change, the chances are the Raptors will be without their first-round pick.

Man I stand corrected. Thought we had a 50/50 chance of keeping the pick. For us to lose the pick a team from 7 and below would need to move up. I wonder if we have the stats through the draft when that has happened

[Psubs]

Keys to Know For Toronto
-Toronto has a 45.8% chance to keep its first-round pick this year. The pick was traded to San Antonio for Jakob Poeltl at the 2023 NBA trade deadline.
-Toronto has a 37.2% chance to land a top-four pick and an 8.6% chance to stay at No. 6.
-The Raptors cannot land the No. 5 pick.
-Toronto has a 9% chance to land the No. 1 selection. If the Raptors do keep their pick, the most likely outcome is it becomes the No. 4 selection.
-There’s a 29.8% chance the pick ends up at No. 7 and is conveyed to San Antonio. That’s the most likely outcome of any of the potential landing spots.
-Toronto’s pick can only fall as far as No. 10 if four teams behind the Raptors jump into the top four in the draft.

What to Watch For
The draft order is decided by a lottery that will select which of the 14 teams will earn top four selections. Once the top-four picks are decided, the remaining teams will be slotted in reverse order of their record this past season.

For Toronto, that means the hope is none of the teams who finished with a better record than the Raptors jump into the top four. If one of the eight teams behind the Raptors does clinch a top-four selection, Toronto’s chances of keeping its pick will be greatly diminished. For example, Toronto cannot land the No. 6 pick if one of the teams behind the Raptors moves up in the draft lottery.

The key, therefore, will be watching to ensure the order of picks 14 through seven remains as expected. If the order of the teams revealed does change, the chances are the Raptors will be without their first-round pick.

Man I stand corrected. Thought we had a 50/50 chance of keeping the pick. For us to lose the pick a team from 7 and below would need to move up. I wonder if we have the stats through the draft when that has happened

We moved from 8 to 4 to get Scottie. Feels like once every 3 drafts someone moves into the top for from the 7 -10 range.

[grant101]

Yeah even if I am “team keep the pick all the way” someone could argue that the worse scenario would actually be keeping #6 and the best one is winning #1

This is kinda where I'm at. Outside of Sarr, I can talk myself into or out of the names frequently mentioned in the top 6. Each player (outside of potentially Clingan, who doesn't make sense for Toronto) has HUGE question marks. I like aspects of many of their games, but see circumstances where each underwhelms if we draft them into our team. Even if you assume our FO has 1-2 favourites among them and see things we don't, you've gotta assume that the those players are gone by the time #6 roles around. If, instead, you choose to reach down in the draft for another name you like (e.g., Jared McCain, Devin Carter,etc.), then you're stuck paying an end of lottery guy the salary of a #6 pick.

I think the better option may be to just convey a #7/#8 pick in a weak draft in terms of stars, use the cap space this summer to either sign a player you like or take on bad money for more assets, and generally own your future.

Meh. There's pros and cons either way.

The pick is best viewed as currency. If we keep the pick and we don't like the guys who are on the board where we are, you can always move down. In doing so, you might be able to offload salary or pick up some current/future first, acquire a vet or another quality young player. You can even give the pick to the Spurs so that you don't owe any future firsts. There's lots of things you can do.

Whereas all of these options are not available to you if you don't keep the pick. So yeah, I really don't get people who are indifferent. It's just a better place to be if we keep it.

I generally agree with this, but I think you're going to have a lot of teams shopping their picks this year. I don't think you're going to get as much value as you would for most other drafts. Outside of Boucher and McDaniels, I don't think we have many contracts we're itching to get out from, and those both expire next year. You may be able to offload #6 for a mid-to-late pick next year, but that sounds like a worse deal than just conveying at #7/#8.

[Rapsfan07]

This is kinda where I'm at. Outside of Sarr, I can talk myself into or out of the names frequently mentioned in the top 6. Each player (outside of potentially Clingan, who doesn't make sense for Toronto) has HUGE question marks. I like aspects of many of their games, but see circumstances where each underwhelms if we draft them into our team. Even if you assume our FO has 1-2 favourites among them and see things we don't, you've gotta assume that the those players are gone by the time #6 roles around. If, instead, you choose to reach down in the draft for another name you like (e.g., Jared McCain, Devin Carter,etc.), then you're stuck paying an end of lottery guy the salary of a #6 pick.

I think the better option may be to just convey a #7/#8 pick in a weak draft in terms of stars, use the cap space this summer to either sign a player you like or take on bad money for more assets, and generally own your future.

Meh. There's pros and cons either way.

The pick is best viewed as currency. If we keep the pick and we don't like the guys who are on the board where we are, you can always move down. In doing so, you might be able to offload salary or pick up some current/future first, acquire a vet or another quality young player. You can even give the pick to the Spurs so that you don't owe any future firsts. There's lots of things you can do.

Whereas all of these options are not available to you if you don't keep the pick. So yeah, I really don't get people who are indifferent. It's just a better place to be if we keep it.

I generally agree with this, but I think you're going to have a lot of teams shopping their picks this year. I don't think you're going to get as much value as you would for most other drafts. Outside of Boucher and McDaniels, I don't think we have many contracts we're itching to get out from, and those both expire next year. You may be able to offload #6 for a mid-to-late pick next year, but that sounds like a worse deal than just conveying at #7/#8.

Yeah I agree with this as well. For sure if we're trading down or out completely, it needs to be more worthwhile than conveying the pick.

I think my perspective here is I want the team to out from under the pick obligation AND be competitive as soon as possible. Of course, I'd like us to build a legit contender and that takes time but if we don't convey this year, my hope is with the right pick, internal growth and some solid moves in the offseason, we can be a play-in/playoff team next year AND still have room to continue to improve.

If we convey next year, that means we probably didn't add much by way of high quality talent, which means we'll be looking at another crappy year next year before we can start to be heading in the upward direction.

So if we keep it this year, add a high level prospect and make some quality moves, we can move forward sooner.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

If Raps don't tank 2025 Masai is even more of an idiot than capable of being imagined, it's one of the most loaded drafts in NBA history. It's so loaded that many projections have Isaiah Evans outside of the lottery and Evans had 27.5 pts on 53/43/84 shooting w/ 6.3 reb 3 ast 2.4 stl 1.3 blks in HS and is doing all kinds of impressive stuff lately. People compare him to BI but BI can't defend like Evans. Evans makes Matas Buzelis look like a choir boy.

I mean with his size, athleticism, self-creation, shooting efficiency and ability to do a bit of everything as well as seriously be disruptive on D he'd easily be my #1 this year and it wouldn't take me more than 10 seconds to figure it out. Next year is just absolutely insane, I'd probably take at least 12 players #1 overall right now in this year's draft if not more.

Long story short losing the pick this year would at least save Masai from himself in the case he refuses to tank as picks 7 to 14 will have players infinitely more attractive than anyone available this year. It's a no brainer.

Also Stojakovic's kid is projected in the 20's.

Andrej is not someone I particularly care for at all he's an atrocious player. Dude finished at the rim at a 39% clip this year and was below the 10th percentile in overall defense. 52.8% from the line. There's literally nothing there except his last name. Maybe he has some kind of miracle offseason where he can become 40% of the prospect Jett Howard was last year and I still wouldn't even bring him in as a UDFA. He's likely going to play out his college career.

[God Squad]

If Raps don't tank 2025 Masai is even more of an idiot than capable of being imagined, it's one of the most loaded drafts in NBA history. It's so loaded that many projections have Isaiah Evans outside of the lottery and Evans had 27.5 pts on 53/43/84 shooting w/ 6.3 reb 3 ast 2.4 stl 1.3 blks in HS and is doing all kinds of impressive stuff lately. People compare him to BI but BI can't defend like Evans. Evans makes Matas Buzelis look like a choir boy.

I mean with his size, athleticism, self-creation, shooting efficiency and ability to do a bit of everything as well as seriously be disruptive on D he'd easily be my #1 this year and it wouldn't take me more than 10 seconds to figure it out. Next year is just absolutely insane, I'd probably take at least 12 players #1 overall right now in this year's draft if not more.

Long story short losing the pick this year would at least save Masai from himself in the case he refuses to tank as picks 7 to 14 will have players infinitely more attractive than anyone available this year. It's a no brainer.

Also Stojakovic's kid is projected in the 20's.

I like AJ Dybantsa. But I think when its' all said and done he'll be a top 3 pick. He looked really good during hoop summit game.

[Dalek]

If Raps don't tank 2025 Masai is even more of an idiot than capable of being imagined, it's one of the most loaded drafts in NBA history. It's so loaded that many projections have Isaiah Evans outside of the lottery and Evans had 27.5 pts on 53/43/84 shooting w/ 6.3 reb 3 ast 2.4 stl 1.3 blks in HS and is doing all kinds of impressive stuff lately. People compare him to BI but BI can't defend like Evans. Evans makes Matas Buzelis look like a choir boy.

I mean with his size, athleticism, self-creation, shooting efficiency and ability to do a bit of everything as well as seriously be disruptive on D he'd easily be my #1 this year and it wouldn't take me more than 10 seconds to figure it out. Next year is just absolutely insane, I'd probably take at least 12 players #1 overall right now in this year's draft if not more.

Long story short losing the pick this year would at least save Masai from himself in the case he refuses to tank as picks 7 to 14 will have players infinitely more attractive than anyone available this year. It's a no brainer.

Also Stojakovic's kid is projected in the 20's.

I like AJ Dybantsa. But I think when its' all said and done he'll be a top 3 pick. He looked really good during hoop summit game.

This is what I have been saying for a while now. It is Toronto's best interest to convey this year. You don't want a similar scenario next year where you potentially punt a lottery pick in a better class. Toronto will be a better team next year - not sure how much, but saying they will be less than 6 is a tall order given how well they played when healthy.

[Jcity08]

Ran the Sim again, out of 10 tries, we keep our pick 5 times, there times at #6, once at #3, once at #2. Lose our pick 4 times at #7 and once at #8.

Will run it each day until the lottery.