Rapsfan07 wrote:If I'm the Spurs, it would come down to either Sheppard or Dillingham and that is a TOUGH call.
Sheppard's advanced numbers and all around ability to impact the game is really convincing, ngl. If anyone can turn that into a superstar type player, it's going to be Pop. But Dillingham is also an underrated passer and pick and roll ball handler. He's also an electric scorer and very good shooter on volume.
I think the Hornets will go Castle and I like that fit for them. If he turns out to actually be 6'6, he's exactly the tough nosed defensive glue wing that'll fit with Ball and Miller.
I'm seriously hoping that Carter will be there at #19 but if not, I'd settle for Collier.
The guy I think is in for a surprising tumble is JaKobe Walter.
If both were to be projected as starters Sheppard is more likely to be a good piece on a great team whereas Dillingham will hope to be a great piece on an average team. Because Rob's defense is so poor and there is a historical trend among guards in his mold to max out at +5 on offense his high end outcome would have him as a borderline all-star at his peak but even reaching that outcome would be dependent on elevating his 3PAr and improving as a driver + finisher and getting to the charity stripe a lot more.
Median outcome for Dillingham is something more like a smaller Tim Hardaway Jr. with passing chops which is what I feel he is more likely to max out as. I haven't seen the comparison made anywhere but when the tradeoff is made between Rob's shiftiness and Hardaway's size there are a lot of similarities in probable role and statistical production. I see similarly poor defensive efficiency, high 3PAr and low FTr all in Rob's future with likely similar shooting %'s to THJ (career 42/36/81).
Reed on the other hand offers more as he carries a ton of gravity as a shooter and can become a premiere floor spacer due to his shooting touch which is easily the best in the entire class and in recent memory, he has incredibly special touch on his jumper including the middy, his issue is he will need to play alongside a more adept ballhandler. Reed in ISO cannot achieve much unless it's against guards <6'3 where he was able to get his midrange jumper off on them. Jumbo guards and wings swallow him whole. It's highly reminiscent of FVV who sucked in ISO and sucked finishing at the rim much like Reed who gets swatted and denied routinely as a driver. Fred overdribbled with the ball in his hands whereas Reed routinely picked up his dribble, struggled to find an outlet and turned the ball over this year so he'll need to learn to at times do what Fred does when denied access to the rim and continue to dribble along the baseline and reset as a possession with a limited shot clock is better than a turnover. Ultimately it's better that we see more limited looks from him attempting to take it to the hole and he'll have to be cognizant of his limitations and how to overcome them instead of doubling down on them like FVV did. A team flat out should just not allow him to operate much in that manner except in order to keep defenses honest from time to time. All that said, if a team is smart enough they will run actions to take advantage of Reed's special shooting by enabling him with screens/DHO's beyond or within the 3pt line (he is very good at using screens to get shots off) and working on developing him as a movement shooter. Another big thing for Reed is that he has deep range and can increase his volume just by catching defenders off guard and unloading from deep a couple of times a game. This is actually a critical part of his offensive kit as he needs absolutely every advantage he can get in order to increase his shot volume and leave his winning imprint on a game.
Reed has a whole slew of defensive issues mainly related to not being disciplined but those can be cleaned up with work and he likely should refrain from leaving his feet to try to block shots at the NBA level or at least be smarter about when to attempt to. Overall he's one of the only players in the class with multiple outlier skills but he comes in a mold that places limitations in the NBA as an undersized guard and then even more limitations due to not being fast or physical. Reed's low end outcome involves him coming off the bench and Jared McCain has a higher floor because while undersized he is built like a tank and incredibly physical which is an important trait for an undersized guard, but McCain also lacks the multidimensionality of Reed even though his physical profile should make him a safer bet to have higher USG and shot volume. There's some mystery as to Reed's ultimate outcome but he has some special qualities to him that should be gambled on despite his physical profile. He could be some kind of weird TJ McConnell/FVV/mini-Klay hybrid which is pretty nice if it comes to fruition.
I thought he'd be more like a SG/SF like Josh Hart but he's more of a SG/PG. Finding a starter level player at #19 like Podz, Jaquez and Jovic is pretty good. I guess we all want to find Tyrese Maxey level gets there. 
