Keith Smith: Raptors 2024 offseason analysis

[gp2015]

From Keith Smith at Spotrac: Raptors' 2024 offseason analysis: "Continuing the reset without having to rebuild". This is a thoughtful, well reasoned look at what the Raptors are looking at this summer. Definitely worth a read.

https://www.spotrac.com/news/_/id/2234/2024-nba-offseason-financial-previews

"The Toronto Raptors did the hard part ahead of last season’s trade deadline: They hit the reset button. That meant trading away the last real ties to the 2019 title team by sending OG Anunoby to the New York Knicks and Pascal Siakam to the Indiana Pacers. But they were the right moves to get the franchise headed in a new direction. After missing the playoffs in three of the last four years, with one first-round exit mixed in, it was time to start over. The good news? The Raptors aren’t starting over from scratch."

"This offseason is crucial for Toronto, but not in an “adding talent” way. This summer is about locking up the players the Raptors already have in Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley. Everything else is about finding the right guys to maximize what those two bring, especially players who fit with Barnes. That might be a two-year process, but if the Raptors get this right, this mini-postseason drought will be over before we know it."

In addition to these summary comments, Smith suggests the following:

- Barnes will get a max extension, likely allowing for 30% of the cap if he makes all NBA
- Quickley will get 4 years between $100 mil and $120 mil
- the Olynyk signing points to Toronto operating over the cap
- Brown's option will be picked up to allow him to be used in a trade
- Trent will move on (could be sign & trade)
- Nwora, Temple, Malik Williams could return, on a minimum deal
- Raps will use the MLE to target affordable options for backup PG and possibly 4/5 depth
- draft picks will be BPA

It's not working in Phoenix. Would we trade expirings for Bradley Beal? Grayson Allen can play more.

#31, Bruce Brown, Ochai Agbaji, Chris Boucher and McDaniels for #22, Beal and cash

PG IQ - Castle/JFL
SG Beal - Castle - Dick
SF Barrett - Dick - #19
PF Barnes - Barrett/Olynyk
C Poeltl - Olynyk - Chomche

I really hope you're not serious. Why the f*** would we want Beal and his terrible contract?

Your realize he's getting paid 50 million next year and it only goes up from there? All that for a player that doesn't even care about winning. To top it off, his body is already breaking down.

[DreamTeam09]

Yuck!

Or just offer Utah $15M for the 22nd pick in next year's draft - which is probably where the CLE pick lands.

I don't want to see Collins OR Brown on this team next year.

Bobby said they'll look to take on some money this summer so don't rule it out. Especially if we're getting back a 2025 or 2026 pick.

But that means being a cap space team, and discarding Gary and BB. Kelly's contract aside, it doesn't make sense that we would give up Schroder for nothing if the intention was to operate above the cap (unless he really was a team cancer).

I can only see operating above the cap if we stay in the top six, and have to pay up to 10 mill/yr for Stephon Castle or whoever.

Staying above the cap by picking up Browns option for trade purposes, and shipping out his expiring deal for longer term +:assets.
+
A possible SnT of Gary

[rapluva]

Not adding talent.... Uh ok Keith

How can anyone watch these games and think the Raps are fine as far as talent is concerned lol?

So you are saying a healthy..

IQ
Trent or a decent replacement
RJB
SB
Poetel

With Olynyk, Abaji and Dick coming off the bench isn't the team good enough to make the Playoffs or the Play-in next season?
Now add in an actual backup point and Center and we ain't good enough?

Personally, I think the Raps will get Trent back.. they will look for some future picks.. already have possibly 3 this season.. trades incoming for sure..

[DG88]

Not adding talent.... Uh ok Keith

How can anyone watch these games and think the Raps are fine as far as talent is concerned lol?

There’s a section of the fanbase who think all we have to do is add a wing defender and we’re good.

We're more than one wing defender. Are only plus defenders are Poeltl, Barnes and Ochai. We're nowhere close defensively to be competitive

[Scase]

How can anyone watch these games and think the Raps are fine as far as talent is concerned lol?

There’s a section of the fanbase who think all we have to do is add a wing defender and we’re good.

We're more than one wing defender. Are only plus defenders are Poeltl, Barnes and Ochai. We're nowhere close defensively to be competitive

I don't think it's fair to call Ochai a plus defender, since he is so useless on the offensive side

[SHFT]

Not adding talent.... Uh ok Keith

I took that to mean via trade or FA...we HAVE to add talent, but it's coming via the draft.

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[SpezNc]

Not adding talent.... Uh ok Keith

I took that to mean via trade or FA...we HAVE to add talent, but it's coming via the draft.

Sent from my SM-G991W using RealGM mobile app

Agree

I also took that to mean “no major acquisition” in this specific off season. This also track with most prediction we see on this board.

Like you said, we draft some players first. We see next season how the team evolve, how the new draftee develops, and then you position yourself for a big trade addition 1-2 off season down the road.

But I don’t think this specific off season is the best timing to add talent. Unless a massive opportunity that it’s hard to turn down happens.

[WuTang_OG]

Raps need to hit on this draft whether we keep all 3
Picks or not

[islandboy53]

Not adding talent.... Uh ok Keith

How can anyone watch these games and think the Raps are fine as far as talent is concerned lol?

So you are saying a healthy..

IQ
Trent or a decent replacement
RJB
SB
Poetel

With Olynyk, Abaji and Dick coming off the bench isn't the team good enough to make the Playoffs or the Play-in next season?
Now add in an actual backup point and Center and we ain't good enough?

Personally, I think the Raps will get Trent back.. they will look for some future picks.. already have possibly 3 this season.. trades incoming for sure..

I think folks need to see this in the context of this offseason. Smith is suggesting that this summer we don't need to add Barnes/IQ level talent. Obviously we need to add talent, through the draft and FA, and we will, but we need to be patient, and continue to accumulate assets while building around Scottie and IQ. The group you reference is a good starting point and, with the additions we make this summer, should be a fun group to watch.

[Zeno]

I agree with Smith that we will operate as an above the cap team by picking up Brown’s option. Even with keeping the pick, Raptors will have a sizable amount of money to play Will under the tax and theyvalonost always spend to near that line. Obviously, they need to hit on the picks. But the intriguing part of the offseason is how they use that spending power. They could use Brown, Boucher, McDaniels expirings to take on more money in trade for upgrades or a bad contract and draft assets. They could front load Quickly’s new deal. They could also bring back Trent on a Bruce Brown type deal that creates a large virtual expiring for trade later. There is also the full MLE that this year can function as a trade exception and the TPE of 10 million plus from the Pascal trade.

[SpezNc]

I am not sure why I didn’t know until now but I just came to the realization that mathematically it’s virtually impossible to extend Quickley (AAV b/w 25 to 30), exercise Brown option (23M), sign Trent (B/W full MLE to 20M) as well as rookie scale for #19 + rookie scale a top6 pick.

Obviously for many reasons the above scenario would not have made any sense anyway. I would argue in all scenarios (convey, not convey) the choice is likely either Trent is back, or Brown option is exercised but not both. Or even none of them back(my preferred choice TBH)

But I found it interesting that should we get lucky on the lottery, this would all but guarantee that both Trent/Brown aren’t going to be back.

[Godaddycurse]

I am not sure why I didn’t know until now but I just came to the realization that mathematically it’s virtually impossible to extend Quickley (AAV b/w 25 to 30), exercise Brown option (23M), sign Trent (B/W full MLE to 20M) as well as rookie scale for #19 + rookie scale a top6 pick.

Obviously for many reasons the above scenario would not have made any sense anyway. I would argue in all scenarios (convey, not convey) the choice is likely either Trent is back, or Brown option is exercised but not both. Or even none of them back(my preferred choice TBH)

But I found it interesting that should we get lucky on the lottery, this would all but guarantee that both Trent/Brown aren’t going to be back.

what do you mean? we have bird rights so we can operate over the cap to bring brown/trent back and sign Quickley if that is the way FO prefers.

[2019nbachamps]

Not adding talent.... Uh ok Keith

How can anyone watch these games and think the Raps are fine as far as talent is concerned lol?

So you are saying a healthy..

IQ
Trent or a decent replacement
RJB
SB
Poetel

With Olynyk, Abaji and Dick coming off the bench isn't the team good enough to make the Playoffs or the Play-in next season?
Now add in an actual backup point and Center and we ain't good enough?

Personally, I think the Raps will get Trent back.. they will look for some future picks.. already have possibly 3 this season.. trades incoming for sure..

I still think this team wins 30-40 games. We gotta assume the Bulls, Hawks, etc will also make moves.

[Psubs]

Maybe Derozan?

If not, offer starting at $15 million for Obi Toppin and/or Jalen Smith from the Pacers.

Obi Toppin is ending his rookie contract so right to match. They have to pay Pascal. Maybe $20 million start with no raises so 20-20-20-20? Might be better option than re-signing Gary Trent Jr.

Draft Castle or Topic

PG IQ - C/T - JFL
SG Dick - C/T - #19
SF Barrett - Toppin - Ochai
PF Barnes - Toppin - Boucher
C Poeltl - Olynyk - #31

[Raptorfan2012]

I am not sure why I didn’t know until now but I just came to the realization that mathematically it’s virtually impossible to extend Quickley (AAV b/w 25 to 30), exercise Brown option (23M), sign Trent (B/W full MLE to 20M) as well as rookie scale for #19 + rookie scale a top6 pick.

Obviously for many reasons the above scenario would not have made any sense anyway. I would argue in all scenarios (convey, not convey) the choice is likely either Trent is back, or Brown option is exercised but not both. Or even none of them back(my preferred choice TBH)

But I found it interesting that should we get lucky on the lottery, this would all but guarantee that both Trent/Brown aren’t going to be back.

There are definitely pros in convey this year's pick especially if we end up at 6. I really only want Sarrs or Holland up top (maybe Matas B.); if they aren't available, I rather forfeit the pick than having to pay that player their rookie contract.

[DreamTeam09]

First order of business is see where we land in the draft
I guess 2nd would be to find a player useful for us in a trade for Browns contract
MLE on a position we didn't draft or acquire in the brown trade
Resign quickly
Resign Barnes
I'd resign Jordan Nowra

If we are under the tax after all of that, then I guess we look at GTJ or he walks

[ciueli]

I am not sure why I didn’t know until now but I just came to the realization that mathematically it’s virtually impossible to extend Quickley (AAV b/w 25 to 30), exercise Brown option (23M), sign Trent (B/W full MLE to 20M) as well as rookie scale for #19 + rookie scale a top6 pick.

Obviously for many reasons the above scenario would not have made any sense anyway. I would argue in all scenarios (convey, not convey) the choice is likely either Trent is back, or Brown option is exercised but not both. Or even none of them back(my preferred choice TBH)

But I found it interesting that should we get lucky on the lottery, this would all but guarantee that both Trent/Brown aren’t going to be back.

what do you mean? we have bird rights so we can operate over the cap to bring brown/trent back and sign Quickley if that is the way FO prefers.

Even just the following 11 players are around $142M in salary: RJ, Brown, Jak, Olynyk, Boucher, Barnes, Dick, McDaniels, Agbaji, Freeman-Liberty, a resigned Quickley (assuming he starts around $25M/year).

So that's around $30M before hitting the luxury tax and we still haven't factored in Gary Trent Jr. and draft picks. If we stay at 6 that pick will be paid over $7M in year 1, pick 19 is paid over $3M, it should be around $11M for both. That leaves $19M before the luxury tax to keep Gary Trent Jr.

So the biggest questions are:
- Does the pick convey? If not, where does it land, because the higher it is, the less space there is under the tax.
- How much does it cost to keep Quickley?
- How much does it cost to keep Gary Trent Jr.?

[MiamiSPX]

Not adding talent.... Uh ok Keith

How can anyone watch these games and think the Raps are fine as far as talent is concerned lol?

So you are saying a healthy..

IQ
Trent or a decent replacement
RJB
SB
Poetel

With Olynyk, Abaji and Dick coming off the bench isn't the team good enough to make the Playoffs or the Play-in next season?
Now add in an actual backup point and Center and we ain't good enough?

Personally, I think the Raps will get Trent back.. they will look for some future picks.. already have possibly 3 this season.. trades incoming for sure..

I never said anything about the playoffs or play-in. Assuming good health, I think they can flirt with a play-in spot but only because of how crappy the East continues to be. But the goal shouldn't be counting on a better spot in the standings due to how bad other teams are.

My comment was only laughing at the implication that we're set as far as adding talent is concerned. Masai himself said, less than 2 weeks ago, that we need to add a running mate for Scottie. Personally I think IQ can be that, but it was a pretty telling remark.

All you've done is a list a bunch of names, not unlike how people kept adding /McDaniels in their rotations last summer, as if it meant anything. We still need a 5th starter and ultimately what we do with GTJ won't make much of a difference to our future outlook.

And adding a backup PG and Center is not that easy, especially for the Raptors. Again, Masai himself admitted that they keep striking out on their FA signings.

Just to be clear, I am not down on the team. I like where we're heading and excited about the journey to get there, but we need more talent, and we need it badly.

[Rapsfan07]

Bobby said they'll look to take on some money this summer so don't rule it out. Especially if we're getting back a 2025 or 2026 pick.

But that means being a cap space team, and discarding Gary and BB. Kelly's contract aside, it doesn't make sense that we would give up Schroder for nothing if the intention was to operate above the cap (unless he really was a team cancer).

I can only see operating above the cap if we stay in the top six, and have to pay up to 10 mill/yr for Stephon Castle or whoever.

Staying above the cap by picking up Browns option for trade purposes, and shipping out his expiring deal for longer term +:assets.
+
A possible SnT of Gary

If my calculations are correct (and they might not be) but I'm not sure that picking up Brown's options and S&T Trent is a good idea. We have to pay Quickley and Barnes is going to get the max extension. We still need a back up PG and a starting SF as well.

Picking up Brown's option means that we're likely going to be taking back longer term salary...ditto for a Trent S&T. Pretty sure doing all of these things put us in the tax. Plus we still have to round out our bench and sign our rookies.

I'm thinking that it's probably best to decline Brown and let Trent walk unless there's a significant piece coming back for any of these guys.

[DG88]

How can anyone watch these games and think the Raps are fine as far as talent is concerned lol?

So you are saying a healthy..

IQ
Trent or a decent replacement
RJB
SB
Poetel

With Olynyk, Abaji and Dick coming off the bench isn't the team good enough to make the Playoffs or the Play-in next season?
Now add in an actual backup point and Center and we ain't good enough?

Personally, I think the Raps will get Trent back.. they will look for some future picks.. already have possibly 3 this season.. trades incoming for sure..

I never said anything about the playoffs or play-in. Assuming good health, I think they can flirt with a play-in spot but only because of how crappy the East continues to be. But the goal shouldn't be counting on a better spot in the standings due to how bad other teams are.

My comment was only laughing at the implication that we're set as far as adding talent is concerned. Masai himself said, less than 2 weeks ago, that we need to add a running mate for Scottie. Personally I think IQ can be that, but it was a pretty telling remark.

All you've done is a list a bunch of names, not unlike how people kept adding /McDaniels in their rotations last summer, as if it meant anything. We still need a 5th starter and ultimately what we do with GTJ won't make much of a difference to our future outlook.

And adding a backup PG and Center is not that easy, especially for the Raptors. Again, Masai himself admitted that they keep striking out on their FA signings.

Just to be clear, I am not down on the team. I like where we're heading and excited about the journey to get there, but we need more talent, and we need it badly.

Speaking of Playoffs I think a lot of posters don't understand how far we are from securing a top 6 seed in our conference. Note that just based on ORTG and DRTG we were 12th in our conference. When you add the league we're 24th and 26th in both ratings. We at least need to be 5+ points better in each category to sniff playoffs, that's a major jump that won't be made in one offseason of a rebuild. It's at least going to take 2 years before we see progress towards Playoffs.Play-In is more realistic of a goal to aim for. This team still needs a lot of work along with finding another All Star that can be a running mate with Scottie.