Keith Smith: Raptors 2024 offseason analysis

[Asif16]

Remember we have Pascal's $10Mill TPE to use as well, to go along with a full MLE.

Raptors have a lot of flexibility to add and take on contracts this offseason. This is a huge offseason for the front office

[dhackett1565]

- Barnes max extension is a given. This should be the last move we make though so we can use capspace to do other things.

- Toronto will definitely be operating over the cap.

The timing of the Barnes extension is irrelevant. His extension will kick in for the 2025-26 season, not next season, so expect agreement on a max extension at the opening bell of free agency.

Operating over or below the cap is still very much a big question mark, and depends on a LOT of variables. Whether we keep the top 6 pick in the lotto, whether we chase a Brown trade, whether we chase a trade using cap space, whether we have a >MLE free agent target, whether we keep Gary - and a lot of those decisions depend on how the draft shakes out. Impossible to say "definitely" right now.

[MEDIC]

Am I the only one who is skeptical that Bruce Brown is holding that much value? Otherwise would have been traded at deadline.

Biggest value is his contract, which allows teams to shed salary.

If a team is desperate enough to get under the tax, maybe we get some good assets back for him.

[Scase]

- Barnes max extension is a given. This should be the last move we make though so we can use capspace to do other things.

- Toronto will definitely be operating over the cap.

The timing of the Barnes extension is irrelevant. His extension will kick in for the 2025-26 season, not next season, so expect agreement on a max extension at the opening bell of free agency.

Operating over or below the cap is still very much a big question mark, and depends on a LOT of variables. Whether we keep the top 6 pick in the lotto, whether we chase a Brown trade, whether we chase a trade using cap space, whether we have a >MLE free agent target, whether we keep Gary - and a lot of those decisions depend on how the draft shakes out. Impossible to say "definitely" right now.

I think the brown trade is the only certainty. I cannot see Masai just letting him expire without trying to get some value, I don't think he should, but I think it's what he will do based on history.

[Scase]

Am I the only one who is skeptical that Bruce Brown is holding that much value? Otherwise would have been traded at deadline.

Biggest value is his contract, which allows teams to shed salary.

If a team is desperate enough to get under the tax, maybe we get some good assets back for him.

Who are really the only teams that desperate to do that? GSW and the Suns? I don't see GSW giving up much in the way of assets since it'll make their future that much harder, and the Suns have nothing worth taking back.

I can't think of any others off the top of my head that would really be that hard pressed.

[DreamTeam09]

But that means being a cap space team, and discarding Gary and BB. Kelly's contract aside, it doesn't make sense that we would give up Schroder for nothing if the intention was to operate above the cap (unless he really was a team cancer).

I can only see operating above the cap if we stay in the top six, and have to pay up to 10 mill/yr for Stephon Castle or whoever.

Staying above the cap by picking up Browns option for trade purposes, and shipping out his expiring deal for longer term +:assets.
+
A possible SnT of Gary

If my calculations are correct (and they might not be) but I'm not sure that picking up Brown's options and S&T Trent is a good idea. We have to pay Quickley and Barnes is going to get the max extension. We still need a back up PG and a starting SF as well.

Picking up Brown's option means that we're likely going to be taking back longer term salary...ditto for a Trent S&T. Pretty sure doing all of these things put us in the tax. Plus we still have to round out our bench and sign our rookies.

I'm thinking that it's probably best to decline Brown and let Trent walk unless there's a significant piece coming back for any of these guys.

Option A FA - to do that it's decline brown + let GTj walk - opens about 25+ mill + 8mill BAE

Option B - pick up Browns option (trade) + use the full MLE 12-14mill (operate above the cap)

Option C pick up Browns option + Sign or SnT GTJ (no exemptions used)

All of these options would leave us under the tax.
Boucher + McDaniels are also expirings that could be traded or bought out to get us under the tax

[OakleyDokely]

If the Kings lose Monk, I can see them being interested in Brown.

[DreamTeam09]

Am I the only one who is skeptical that Bruce Brown is holding that much value? Otherwise would have been traded at deadline.

Biggest value is his contract, which allows teams to shed salary.

If a team is desperate enough to get under the tax, maybe we get some good assets back for him.

Who are really the only teams that desperate to do that? GSW and the Suns? I don't see GSW giving up much in the way of assets since it'll make their future that much harder, and the Suns have nothing worth taking back.

I can't think of any others off the top of my head that would really be that hard pressed.

Bobby marks said theres 6 teams in the double apron and 10 teams in the first apron once the szn is over

[Scase]

Biggest value is his contract, which allows teams to shed salary.

If a team is desperate enough to get under the tax, maybe we get some good assets back for him.

Who are really the only teams that desperate to do that? GSW and the Suns? I don't see GSW giving up much in the way of assets since it'll make their future that much harder, and the Suns have nothing worth taking back.

I can't think of any others off the top of my head that would really be that hard pressed.

Bobby marks said theres 6 teams in the double apron and 10 teams in the first apron once the szn is over

The repeater tax and what these teams have that worth giving up are what's more important than the raw number of teams. I took a quick peek and saw teams like the C's, they could benefit from his expiry, but they don't fit as a trade partner for a few reasons.

I'm trying to think of realistic trade partners, and I'm not seeing too many tbh.

[tecumseh18]

Staying above the cap by picking up Browns option for trade purposes, and shipping out his expiring deal for longer term +:assets.
+
A possible SnT of Gary

If my calculations are correct (and they might not be) but I'm not sure that picking up Brown's options and S&T Trent is a good idea. We have to pay Quickley and Barnes is going to get the max extension. We still need a back up PG and a starting SF as well.

Picking up Brown's option means that we're likely going to be taking back longer term salary...ditto for a Trent S&T. Pretty sure doing all of these things put us in the tax. Plus we still have to round out our bench and sign our rookies.

I'm thinking that it's probably best to decline Brown and let Trent walk unless there's a significant piece coming back for any of these guys.

Option A FA - to do that it's decline brown + let GTj walk - opens about 25+ mill + 8mill BAE

Option B - pick up Browns option (trade) + use the full MLE 12-14mill (operate above the cap)

Option C pick up Browns option + Sign or SnT GTJ (no exemptions used)

All of these options would leave us under the tax.
Boucher + McDaniels are also expirings that could be traded or bought out to get us under the tax

We're assuming Quickley is going to get around $25 mill/yr, starting next season. But Scottie's max extension won't kick in until the following season.

"Buying out" a player doesn't lower our salary, except to a miniscule degree (we'd still have to pay Boucher and or McD almost all of their 2024-25 contracts). To get rid of those two salaries without taking any money back, would cost us a FRP. Not happening.

[Rapsfan07]

- Barnes max extension is a given. This should be the last move we make though so we can use capspace to do other things.

- Toronto will definitely be operating over the cap.

The timing of the Barnes extension is irrelevant. His extension will kick in for the 2025-26 season, not next season, so expect agreement on a max extension at the opening bell of free agency.

Operating over or below the cap is still very much a big question mark, and depends on a LOT of variables. Whether we keep the top 6 pick in the lotto, whether we chase a Brown trade, whether we chase a trade using cap space, whether we have a >MLE free agent target, whether we keep Gary - and a lot of those decisions depend on how the draft shakes out. Impossible to say "definitely" right now.

The timing is irrelevant but what we may or may not take on between then and now is very relevant. If we're not careful, we could easily be in the tax a year from now.

But yes, there are a lot of variables.

[Rapsfan07]

Who are really the only teams that desperate to do that? GSW and the Suns? I don't see GSW giving up much in the way of assets since it'll make their future that much harder, and the Suns have nothing worth taking back.

I can't think of any others off the top of my head that would really be that hard pressed.

Bobby marks said theres 6 teams in the double apron and 10 teams in the first apron once the szn is over

The repeater tax and what these teams have that worth giving up are what's more important than the raw number of teams. I took a quick peek and saw teams like the C's, they could benefit from his expiry, but they don't fit as a trade partner for a few reasons.

I'm trying to think of realistic trade partners, and I'm not seeing too many tbh.

I'm assuming we're discussing Brown's deal?

If so, I've sort of reached the same conclusion as Scase. If we're going to use the Brown contract as way of bailing out other teams from the tax, that means we'll be taking on a significant amount of salary and I'm not sure that's best for us either. I guess it depends on the contract coming back and the asset attached to him but with the money being owed to Poeltl, Quickley's extension, Barnes extension, Barrett's money etc... we might be up against some issues ourselves.

[dhackett1565]

- Barnes max extension is a given. This should be the last move we make though so we can use capspace to do other things.

- Toronto will definitely be operating over the cap.

The timing of the Barnes extension is irrelevant. His extension will kick in for the 2025-26 season, not next season, so expect agreement on a max extension at the opening bell of free agency.

Operating over or below the cap is still very much a big question mark, and depends on a LOT of variables. Whether we keep the top 6 pick in the lotto, whether we chase a Brown trade, whether we chase a trade using cap space, whether we have a >MLE free agent target, whether we keep Gary - and a lot of those decisions depend on how the draft shakes out. Impossible to say "definitely" right now.

The timing is irrelevant but what we may or may not take on between then and now is very relevant. If we're not careful, we could easily be in the tax a year from now.

But yes, there are a lot of variables.

Of course we need to plan for dealing with the tax in the future.

But "doing Scottie's extension last so we can use cap space first" as you suggested is not remotely a thing. Signing Quickley last so we can use cap space is a thing, but doesn't apply to Scottie at all.

[dhackett1565]

We're assuming Quickley is going to get around $25 mill/yr, starting next season. But Scottie's max extension won't kick in until the following season.

"Buying out" a player doesn't lower our salary, except to a miniscule degree (we'd still have to pay Boucher and or McD almost all of their 2024-25 contracts). To get rid of those two salaries without taking any money back, would cost us a FRP. Not happening.

There is always the option to waive and stretch guys to clear cap room, but with Scottie's raise coming next year it would not be wise to put a bunch of dead cap onto our team salary moving forward.

[Asif16]

If the Kings lose Monk, I can see them being interested in Brown.

Hopefully, they lose Monk to us. I would give Monk the Full MLE assuming he wants to come here.

[dhackett1565]

If the Kings lose Monk, I can see them being interested in Brown.

Hopefully, they lose Monk to us. I would give Monk the Full MLE assuming he wants to come here.

Monk is getting significantly more than the MLE. If we want him we'll need to go the cap space route.

[DreamTeam09]

A Wiggins or DeAndre Hunter trade seems inevitable - any wing player that has 2 or 3 yrs left for an expiring

[YogurtProducer]

The timing of the Barnes extension is irrelevant. His extension will kick in for the 2025-26 season, not next season, so expect agreement on a max extension at the opening bell of free agency.

Operating over or below the cap is still very much a big question mark, and depends on a LOT of variables. Whether we keep the top 6 pick in the lotto, whether we chase a Brown trade, whether we chase a trade using cap space, whether we have a >MLE free agent target, whether we keep Gary - and a lot of those decisions depend on how the draft shakes out. Impossible to say "definitely" right now.

The timing is irrelevant but what we may or may not take on between then and now is very relevant. If we're not careful, we could easily be in the tax a year from now.

But yes, there are a lot of variables.

Of course we need to plan for dealing with the tax in the future.

But "doing Scottie's extension last so we can use cap space first" as you suggested is not remotely a thing. Signing Quickley last so we can use cap space is a thing, but doesn't apply to Scottie at all.

Are you sure?

If we waited until Scottie actually expired his cap hold would be much lower than an agreed upon extension.

[Godaddycurse]

The timing is irrelevant but what we may or may not take on between then and now is very relevant. If we're not careful, we could easily be in the tax a year from now.

But yes, there are a lot of variables.

Of course we need to plan for dealing with the tax in the future.

But "doing Scottie's extension last so we can use cap space first" as you suggested is not remotely a thing. Signing Quickley last so we can use cap space is a thing, but doesn't apply to Scottie at all.

Are you sure?

If we waited until Scottie actually expired his cap hold would be much lower than an agreed upon extension.

you dont want to antagonize him. if he becomes an RFA he might sign an offer sheet and we can only keep him for 4 yrs instead of 5. Assuming he doesn't make All-Nba, his starting salary would be like 37-38M or something while his caphit as an RFA is 30.3M. I dont think we will have significant capspace with IQ/Poeltl/Barrett/Scottie's caphit on the books anyways so there is no point to not extending him now

[dhackett1565]

Are you sure?

If we waited until Scottie actually expired his cap hold would be much lower than an agreed upon extension.

Yes. I mean, are you talking about 2024 cap space? He's got a 2024 salary, his 4th year salary.

By 2025, when he's potentially an RFA with a cap hold, we are not going to be dealing with cap space even if we sit on Scottie's cap hold instead of his extended salary (it's almost a 30M cap hold, versus a 38M salary).