Keith Smith: Raptors 2024 offseason analysis

[SpezNc]

Wondering what can we get for Gary Trent jr’s sign and trade

not much i'm assuming. He's not a good enough player for a team to give up anything of value instead of just using cap

Definition of a neutral player.

[islandboy53]

I am not sure why I didn’t know until now but I just came to the realization that mathematically it’s virtually impossible to extend Quickley (AAV b/w 25 to 30), exercise Brown option (23M), sign Trent (B/W full MLE to 20M) as well as rookie scale for #19 + rookie scale a top6 pick.

Obviously for many reasons the above scenario would not have made any sense anyway. I would argue in all scenarios (convey, not convey) the choice is likely either Trent is back, or Brown option is exercised but not both. Or even none of them back(my preferred choice TBH)

But I found it interesting that should we get lucky on the lottery, this would all but guarantee that both Trent/Brown aren’t going to be back.

what do you mean? we have bird rights so we can operate over the cap to bring brown/trent back and sign Quickley if that is the way FO prefers.

Even just the following 11 players are around $142M in salary: RJ, Brown, Jak, Olynyk, Boucher, Barnes, Dick, McDaniels, Agbaji, Freeman-Liberty, a resigned Quickley (assuming he starts around $25M/year).

So that's around $30M before hitting the luxury tax and we still haven't factored in Gary Trent Jr. and draft picks. If we stay at 6 that pick will be paid over $7M in year 1, pick 19 is paid over $3M, it should be around $11M for both. That leaves $19M before the luxury tax to keep Gary Trent Jr.

So the biggest questions are:
- Does the pick convey? If not, where does it land, because the higher it is, the less space there is under the tax.
- How much does it cost to keep Quickley?
- How much does it cost to keep Gary Trent Jr.?

Looking at things from the perspective of space under the tax seems very appropriate. This summer we want to maximize flexibilty, and even $19 million doesn't do that. We need $25 million to fully use the NTMLE and Siakam's TPE. We also want to be able to maximize the salary we're able to take back from teams looking to unload $ (we'd need about $5 million, for example, to bring back the maximum salary dump for McDaniels). That means that, ideally, we're looking to shed some salary for Brown when we move him. It also suggest that, if we keep our pick, we may move Indiana's pick for something in a future draft to increase that space under the tax. For that matter, we may trade down from our own pick if the right kind of deal is available. And, with all that said, there's really no margin for keeping Trent. Even a sign and trade is unlikely, given at least some salary would be coming back.

[islandboy53]

I'm assuming we're discussing Brown's deal?

If so, I've sort of reached the same conclusion as Scase. If we're going to use the Brown contract as way of bailing out other teams from the tax, that means we'll be taking on a significant amount of salary and I'm not sure that's best for us either. I guess it depends on the contract coming back and the asset attached to him but with the money being owed to Poeltl, Quickley's extension, Barnes extension, Barrett's money etc... we might be up against some issues ourselves.

This is what I'm struggling with as well. The only way it is beneficial for us, if we get some serious compensation to take on the returning salary. GSW makes sense theoretically, but is shedding a prospect and/or picks that could set back the inevitable rebuild by a couple years, worth the what 20-40mil they pay in repeater tax? Seems kinda short sighted for a team that was basically running a 400mil payroll, like does another 20-40mil even matter at that point?

My concern is our FO picks up Browns option to save face since the Siakam trade is already looking pretty bad, and letting him expire makes it look "worse". We are many years removed from the Masai who moved Bargs, or turned Vasquez into Norm, he hasn't really had any wins aside from the OG one recently, and that's suspect as well how much of that was him vs the OG/Knicks connection.

I don't think taking a salary dump really puts us up against it. I definitely agree that we would need to be paid reasonably well to do so.

Just looking at 2025/26, the combined salaries for Barnes, Barrett, Poeltl, IQ, Trent, Dick, Olynyk, Agbaji, #6, #19, #31 + '25 1st (tbd) would still put us nearly $24m under the tax line (assuming the cap goes up 10%). It seems like we could eat a $20m+ contract in 2025/26, maybe more if we move off of Trent or Olynyk before then (if Trent is re-signed).

The problem I see: the market for guys being dumped doesn't look that strong right now. Some of the tax teams would only have to dump $10m or less to clear the tax and the cost for them to do that won't be huge. It's tough to see who the "here's a 1st for player X's bad salary" guy is.

PHX: can't really pay anything worthwhile because they are so asset poor
BOS: seems like their big tax dodge move would be moving Brown and that's not a salary dump
DEN: Nnaji, who only makes $8.8m
MIN: would probably have to be Reid, who is not a dump because he's actually good
MIL: Connaughton, only makes $9.4m
MIA: Robinson, who is partially guaranteed in '25/26, so that doesn't make sense for Brown
GSW: could just waive CP3.

Might be best to look for the teams trying it make a splash in '2026 and help them clear some long term salary but even then who knows if such a team materializes.

The market for salary dumps isn't looking that great right now unless I'm missing something.

Our best vehicles for salary dumps are the MLE and the Siakam TPE, (although we're likely going to use the MLE for something on the FA market), assuming we have an open roster spot. In terms of sending out players, Boucher can "save" a team as much as Brown, since we can bring back $7.5 million more than we send out for either of them. McDaniels can "save" a team up to $5 million in salary.

[NotMyKawhi]

The biggest mistake was not trading brown for an expiring and 1st. Would solve all our money problems

[Dalek]

The biggest mistake was not trading brown for an expiring and 1st. Would solve all our money problems

We can terminate Brown's deal if we want prior to July 1 / new season. It is a team/club option so we don't have to be on the hook for $23m.

That said, if we do get a first and deal we like, we can move him early during the draft which sometimes happens.

Even if we keep him for next season, they could move his 2024-25 expiring deal prior to the trade deadline.

I think Bobby operates that way, to keep multiple options open on players they want to move from. Brown will always have value because people know he was a big time championship level performer.

I actually think we will keep him if he is healthy. He said he got hurt last December and likely it impacted him. Maybe he will be a better player if he gets healthy. He is normally a solid defender and works in a flowing movement system like ours.

[ConSarnit]

This is what I'm struggling with as well. The only way it is beneficial for us, if we get some serious compensation to take on the returning salary. GSW makes sense theoretically, but is shedding a prospect and/or picks that could set back the inevitable rebuild by a couple years, worth the what 20-40mil they pay in repeater tax? Seems kinda short sighted for a team that was basically running a 400mil payroll, like does another 20-40mil even matter at that point?

My concern is our FO picks up Browns option to save face since the Siakam trade is already looking pretty bad, and letting him expire makes it look "worse". We are many years removed from the Masai who moved Bargs, or turned Vasquez into Norm, he hasn't really had any wins aside from the OG one recently, and that's suspect as well how much of that was him vs the OG/Knicks connection.

I don't think taking a salary dump really puts us up against it. I definitely agree that we would need to be paid reasonably well to do so.

Just looking at 2025/26, the combined salaries for Barnes, Barrett, Poeltl, IQ, Trent, Dick, Olynyk, Agbaji, #6, #19, #31 + '25 1st (tbd) would still put us nearly $24m under the tax line (assuming the cap goes up 10%). It seems like we could eat a $20m+ contract in 2025/26, maybe more if we move off of Trent or Olynyk before then (if Trent is re-signed).

The problem I see: the market for guys being dumped doesn't look that strong right now. Some of the tax teams would only have to dump $10m or less to clear the tax and the cost for them to do that won't be huge. It's tough to see who the "here's a 1st for player X's bad salary" guy is.

PHX: can't really pay anything worthwhile because they are so asset poor
BOS: seems like their big tax dodge move would be moving Brown and that's not a salary dump
DEN: Nnaji, who only makes $8.8m
MIN: would probably have to be Reid, who is not a dump because he's actually good
MIL: Connaughton, only makes $9.4m
MIA: Robinson, who is partially guaranteed in '25/26, so that doesn't make sense for Brown
GSW: could just waive CP3.

Might be best to look for the teams trying it make a splash in '2026 and help them clear some long term salary but even then who knows if such a team materializes.

The market for salary dumps isn't looking that great right now unless I'm missing something.

Our best vehicles for salary dumps are the MLE and the Siakam TPE, (although we're likely going to use the MLE for something on the FA market), assuming we have an open roster spot. In terms of sending out players, Boucher can "save" a team as much as Brown, since we can bring back $7.5 million more than we send out for either of them. McDaniels can "save" a team up to $5 million in salary.

How does the MLE help us as a salary dump vehicle? I feel like I’m missing something there.

We do have a few avenues as far as matching salary for dumps. If I had to guess I would think that competitive teams would want Brown as they would want a 1-year stop gap and he’s the most “proven” of any of our flotsam guys. Maybe some team sees Boucher as a rotation guy as well.

I really can’t tell what’s going to happen with Brown. Would teams still take him on thinking he’s a key rotation piece or is his salary too expensive, even if it’s just for a year?

If we want to do a salary dump now does it make sense to use Boucher + McDaniels and then hold onto Brown hoping some team needs him before the next deadline? I really don’t know.

[ArthurVandelay]

I don't think taking a salary dump really puts us up against it. I definitely agree that we would need to be paid reasonably well to do so.

Just looking at 2025/26, the combined salaries for Barnes, Barrett, Poeltl, IQ, Trent, Dick, Olynyk, Agbaji, #6, #19, #31 + '25 1st (tbd) would still put us nearly $24m under the tax line (assuming the cap goes up 10%). It seems like we could eat a $20m+ contract in 2025/26, maybe more if we move off of Trent or Olynyk before then (if Trent is re-signed).

The problem I see: the market for guys being dumped doesn't look that strong right now. Some of the tax teams would only have to dump $10m or less to clear the tax and the cost for them to do that won't be huge. It's tough to see who the "here's a 1st for player X's bad salary" guy is.

PHX: can't really pay anything worthwhile because they are so asset poor
BOS: seems like their big tax dodge move would be moving Brown and that's not a salary dump
DEN: Nnaji, who only makes $8.8m
MIN: would probably have to be Reid, who is not a dump because he's actually good
MIL: Connaughton, only makes $9.4m
MIA: Robinson, who is partially guaranteed in '25/26, so that doesn't make sense for Brown
GSW: could just waive CP3.

Might be best to look for the teams trying it make a splash in '2026 and help them clear some long term salary but even then who knows if such a team materializes.

The market for salary dumps isn't looking that great right now unless I'm missing something.

Our best vehicles for salary dumps are the MLE and the Siakam TPE, (although we're likely going to use the MLE for something on the FA market), assuming we have an open roster spot. In terms of sending out players, Boucher can "save" a team as much as Brown, since we can bring back $7.5 million more than we send out for either of them. McDaniels can "save" a team up to $5 million in salary.

How does the MLE help us as a salary dump vehicle? I feel like I’m missing something there.

We do have a few avenues as far as matching salary for dumps. If I had to guess I would think that competitive teams would want Brown as they would want a 1-year stop gap and he’s the most “proven” of any of our flotsam guys. Maybe some team sees Boucher as a rotation guy as well.

I really can’t tell what’s going to happen with Brown. Would teams still take him on thinking he’s a key rotation piece or is his salary too expensive, even if it’s just for a year?

If we want to do a salary dump now does it make sense to use Boucher + McDaniels and then hold onto Brown hoping some team needs him before the next deadline? I really don’t know.

In new CBA, MLE can be used in same manner as a TPE

[tecumseh18]

We're assuming Quickley is going to get around $25 mill/yr, starting next season. But Scottie's max extension won't kick in until the following season.

"Buying out" a player doesn't lower our salary, except to a miniscule degree (we'd still have to pay Boucher and or McD almost all of their 2024-25 contracts). To get rid of those two salaries without taking any money back, would cost us a FRP. Not happening.

There is always the option to waive and stretch guys to clear cap room, but with Scottie's raise coming next year it would not be wise to put a bunch of dead cap onto our team salary moving forward.

Man, it seems like forever since I've heard of someone's contract getting stretched. So it's still in the CBA?

I wonder if the Suns would consider stretching Beal's contract? They are so screwed either way.

[ArthurVandelay]

We're assuming Quickley is going to get around $25 mill/yr, starting next season. But Scottie's max extension won't kick in until the following season.

"Buying out" a player doesn't lower our salary, except to a miniscule degree (we'd still have to pay Boucher and or McD almost all of their 2024-25 contracts). To get rid of those two salaries without taking any money back, would cost us a FRP. Not happening.

There is always the option to waive and stretch guys to clear cap room, but with Scottie's raise coming next year it would not be wise to put a bunch of dead cap onto our team salary moving forward.

Man, it seems like forever since I've heard of someone's contract getting stretched. So it's still in the CBA?

I wonder if the Suns would consider stretching Beal's contract? They are so screwed either way.

About $160m owed over 3 seasons

3 x 2 = 6 then + 1 for 7 years

Looking at a nearly $23,000,000 cap hit over 7 seasons

Ouch

[tecumseh18]

There is always the option to waive and stretch guys to clear cap room, but with Scottie's raise coming next year it would not be wise to put a bunch of dead cap onto our team salary moving forward.

Man, it seems like forever since I've heard of someone's contract getting stretched. So it's still in the CBA?

I wonder if the Suns would consider stretching Beal's contract? They are so screwed either way.

About $160m owed over 3 seasons

3 x 2 = 6 then + 1 for 7 years

Looking at a nearly $23,000,000 cap hit over 7 seasons

Ouch

It would like if Masai had paid McDaniels 10x his current annual salary, for 7x his remaining contract.

I don't care how rich this new owner is, that's gotta hurt.

[ArthurVandelay]

Man, it seems like forever since I've heard of someone's contract getting stretched. So it's still in the CBA?

I wonder if the Suns would consider stretching Beal's contract? They are so screwed either way.

About $160m owed over 3 seasons

3 x 2 = 6 then + 1 for 7 years

Looking at a nearly $23,000,000 cap hit over 7 seasons

Ouch

It would like if Masai had paid McDaniels 10x his current annual salary, for 7x his remaining contract.

I don't care how rich this new owner is, that's gotta hurt.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/4/29/24144510/phoenix-suns-nba-trade-rumors-kevin-durant-devin-booker

The Phoenix Suns Are Screwed
The only thing more depressing than the Suns’ first-round loss? Their future.

[Rapsfan07]

I would be intrigued with Hunter + Picks for Brown as long as we factor in Barnes extension prior (factoring in does not means extend but already making sure that space is available for 25-26).

Can't see it. Unfortunately, the Hawks are pretty indebted to the Spurs from the Murray deal. IIRC, they don't have a FRp until 2028.

Plus, with the numbers as shown above, I can't see how the Raptors could rationalize taking on that much long term salary. Safe to say, unless Jalen Johnson is coming back, I don't think we should even be remotely considering it. It would probably be better to open up some capspace and make a run at Williams or acquire him via S&T than to consider taking back Hunter with whatever Atlanta can cobble together.

It might start in the mid 20s, but it won't end there.

Honestly, I'm hoping for $25M per flat or something that already averages out to that. I like Quick but I don't know if I'm totally sold and we have to be careful here with the money we're spending. We're not that far away from the lux tax in the near future and still a lot of holes and questions to address with this roster.

Raps would be better off taking back Hunter or Wiggins deals, which only have 3 years left, then signing Williams to a 4 or 5 year deal that would probably be starting at $30M.

Williams isn't getting that. Ain't no way.

[Scase]

The biggest mistake was not trading brown for an expiring and 1st. Would solve all our money problems

We can terminate Brown's deal if we want prior to July 1 / new season. It is a team/club option so we don't have to be on the hook for $23m.

That said, if we do get a first and deal we like, we can move him early during the draft which sometimes happens.

Even if we keep him for next season, they could move his 2024-25 expiring deal prior to the trade deadline.

I think Bobby operates that way, to keep multiple options open on players they want to move from. Brown will always have value because people know he was a big time championship level performer.

I actually think we will keep him if he is healthy. He said he got hurt last December and likely it impacted him. Maybe he will be a better player if he gets healthy. He is normally a solid defender and works in a flowing movement system like ours.

The problem is, none of these "multiple options" has actually resulted in any positive outcome for many years. There's a reason why the saying is "Strike while the iron is hot" not "Hang on, give it a second, maybe it'll get even hotter if we wait".

[Rapsfan07]

I don't think taking a salary dump really puts us up against it. I definitely agree that we would need to be paid reasonably well to do so.

Just looking at 2025/26, the combined salaries for Barnes, Barrett, Poeltl, IQ, Trent, Dick, Olynyk, Agbaji, #6, #19, #31 + '25 1st (tbd) would still put us nearly $24m under the tax line (assuming the cap goes up 10%). It seems like we could eat a $20m+ contract in 2025/26, maybe more if we move off of Trent or Olynyk before then (if Trent is re-signed).

The problem I see: the market for guys being dumped doesn't look that strong right now. Some of the tax teams would only have to dump $10m or less to clear the tax and the cost for them to do that won't be huge. It's tough to see who the "here's a 1st for player X's bad salary" guy is.

PHX: can't really pay anything worthwhile because they are so asset poor
BOS: seems like their big tax dodge move would be moving Brown and that's not a salary dump
DEN: Nnaji, who only makes $8.8m
MIN: would probably have to be Reid, who is not a dump because he's actually good
MIL: Connaughton, only makes $9.4m
MIA: Robinson, who is partially guaranteed in '25/26, so that doesn't make sense for Brown
GSW: could just waive CP3.

Might be best to look for the teams trying it make a splash in '2026 and help them clear some long term salary but even then who knows if such a team materializes.

The market for salary dumps isn't looking that great right now unless I'm missing something.

Our best vehicles for salary dumps are the MLE and the Siakam TPE, (although we're likely going to use the MLE for something on the FA market), assuming we have an open roster spot. In terms of sending out players, Boucher can "save" a team as much as Brown, since we can bring back $7.5 million more than we send out for either of them. McDaniels can "save" a team up to $5 million in salary.

How does the MLE help us as a salary dump vehicle? I feel like I’m missing something there.

We do have a few avenues as far as matching salary for dumps. If I had to guess I would think that competitive teams would want Brown as they would want a 1-year stop gap and he’s the most “proven” of any of our flotsam guys. Maybe some team sees Boucher as a rotation guy as well.

I really can’t tell what’s going to happen with Brown. Would teams still take him on thinking he’s a key rotation piece or is his salary too expensive, even if it’s just for a year?

If we want to do a salary dump now does it make sense to use Boucher + McDaniels and then hold onto Brown hoping some team needs him before the next deadline? I really don’t know.

A contending team will be the only kind of team interested in Brown. So the problem arises in that those kinds of teams are either going to have to aggregate much needed depth to match Brown's number and/or they're going to have to send a key piece. Either way, it's going to be long term money since there's really no sense to move expiring players for another expiring player.

[Raptorfan2012]

The biggest mistake was not trading brown for an expiring and 1st. Would solve all our money problems

Was such a deal on the table?

[Scase]

The biggest mistake was not trading brown for an expiring and 1st. Would solve all our money problems

Was such a deal on the table?

Knicks I believe were offering Fournier and a 2024 FRP.

[SpezNc]

The biggest mistake was not trading brown for an expiring and 1st. Would solve all our money problems

Was such a deal on the table?

Knicks I believe were offering Fournier and a 2024 FRP.

It’s still a bit unclear. Sounds like Woj was pushing the Brown’s agenda to get him traded but deal never materialized. Grange reported we were offered a 1st but I am not sure if that offer was still on the table at the time of the reporting. Other insiders when they saw Grange’s reporting sounds like it would be good news for Raptors as the noise was looking pessimistic for Toronto getting a 1st pick.

With the rumors mills it’s not always easy to decrypt the actual offer received from the actual asking value. Sometimes you may want to put out there you’ve received such an offer to generate some demands.

I am still skeptical that we really turned down a 1st + expiring for Brown.

But maybe we did…

[SpezNc]

what do you mean? we have bird rights so we can operate over the cap to bring brown/trent back and sign Quickley if that is the way FO prefers.

Even just the following 11 players are around $142M in salary: RJ, Brown, Jak, Olynyk, Boucher, Barnes, Dick, McDaniels, Agbaji, Freeman-Liberty, a resigned Quickley (assuming he starts around $25M/year).

So that's around $30M before hitting the luxury tax and we still haven't factored in Gary Trent Jr. and draft picks. If we stay at 6 that pick will be paid over $7M in year 1, pick 19 is paid over $3M, it should be around $11M for both. That leaves $19M before the luxury tax to keep Gary Trent Jr.

So the biggest questions are:
- Does the pick convey? If not, where does it land, because the higher it is, the less space there is under the tax.
- How much does it cost to keep Quickley?
- How much does it cost to keep Gary Trent Jr.?

Looking at things from the perspective of space under the tax seems very appropriate. This summer we want to maximize flexibilty, and even $19 million doesn't do that. We need $25 million to fully use the NTMLE and Siakam's TPE. We also want to be able to maximize the salary we're able to take back from teams looking to unload $ (we'd need about $5 million, for example, to bring back the maximum salary dump for McDaniels). That means that, ideally, we're looking to shed some salary for Brown when we move him. It also suggest that, if we keep our pick, we may move Indiana's pick for something in a future draft to increase that space under the tax. For that matter, we may trade down from our own pick if the right kind of deal is available. And, with all that said, there's really no margin for keeping Trent. Even a sign and trade is unlikely, given at least some salary would be coming back.

Agree.

The more I look at it the less I want us to exercise Brown option. Trading Brown for a player with term could make it difficult. Even more so should we keep our pick.

See below my preliminary, work in progress long term cap sheet.

It’s hard to do because so many variables at plays.



Assumption:

Pick does not convey, pick is #6
Barnes get max extension that can be bumped to 30% of salary cap.
Quickley got 18% of cap
2026 pick are around pick in the teens outside of lottery
Nwora/Freeman are around salaries. The actual player could be different
Dick got extension at around 10% of salary cap
Brown option is exercised but not traded for a player with term
Trent is not extended mainly to avoid to keeping in the books past 2024-25
Long term luxury tax increase by 5% each year (could be up to 10% but I prefer to be conservative)

Draft lottery results could provides some hints about direction of the team.

[Scase]

Was such a deal on the table?

Knicks I believe were offering Fournier and a 2024 FRP.

It’s still a bit unclear. Sounds like Woj was pushing the Brown’s agenda to get him traded but deal never materialized. Grange reported we were offered a 1st but I am not sure if that offer was still on the table at the time of reporting. Other insiders when they say Grange reporting sounds like it would be good news for Raptors as the noise was looking pessimistic Toronto getting a noise.

With the rumors mills it’s not always easy to decrypt the actual offer received from the actual asking value. Sometimes you may want to put out there you’ve received such an offer to generate some demands.

I am still skeptical that we really turned down a 1st + expiring for Brown.

But maybe we did…

It all seems pretty plausible to be, expiring + a late FRP in a bad year is a "fair" return, and turned down since we already potentially had 3-4 picks that year.

I still think it's a bad idea to turn it down, but it all makes too much sense.

[TGM]

Pretty sure Lakers going to go for Trae. They will be able to trade two first round picks and Austin. Russell and other filler will go to the Hawks that’s where we might come in to absorb some salary