Keith Smith: Raptors 2024 offseason analysis

[kalel123]

The biggest mistake was not trading brown for an expiring and 1st. Would solve all our money problems

If they could've got a first, I would think trade would've already been made. Also, for a team to trade an expiring contract at deadline AND a first round pick, they would have to be pretty convinced of Brown's contribution to winning. Biggest mistake was overestimating his value in trade market thinking they could turn around and trade him.

They have one last chance in the draft. If a team was desperate to unload a contract, they could attach a draft pick to the contract to trade for Brown and cut him right away to be off the hook. Webster made a huge deal about the uniqueness of how his contract is structured so make use of it. If that fails, I would seriously consider just cutting him loose. But chances are, they'll probably keep him around just in case similar to how they kept Thad Young around almost to the bitter end.

[Shakril]

They have to go big this offseason or offload every Player that makes money and isnt part of the future. Essentially IQ, Barnes and RJ stay. Everybody else is expandable.

The exception beeing Poeltl, keeping or trading both are reasonable choices.

[islandboy53]

Our best vehicles for salary dumps are the MLE and the Siakam TPE, (although we're likely going to use the MLE for something on the FA market), assuming we have an open roster spot. In terms of sending out players, Boucher can "save" a team as much as Brown, since we can bring back $7.5 million more than we send out for either of them. McDaniels can "save" a team up to $5 million in salary.

How does the MLE help us as a salary dump vehicle? I feel like I’m missing something there.

We do have a few avenues as far as matching salary for dumps. If I had to guess I would think that competitive teams would want Brown as they would want a 1-year stop gap and he’s the most “proven” of any of our flotsam guys. Maybe some team sees Boucher as a rotation guy as well.

I really can’t tell what’s going to happen with Brown. Would teams still take him on thinking he’s a key rotation piece or is his salary too expensive, even if it’s just for a year?

If we want to do a salary dump now does it make sense to use Boucher + McDaniels and then hold onto Brown hoping some team needs him before the next deadline? I really don’t know.

A contending team will be the only kind of team interested in Brown. So the problem arises in that those kinds of teams are either going to have to aggregate much needed depth to match Brown's number and/or they're going to have to send a key piece. Either way, it's going to be long term money since there's really no sense to move expiring players for another expiring player.

Sacramento should be interested, particularly if they lose Monk, which is a distinct possibility. Houston is another. Sacramento might send Huerter (who could be flipped at the TDL for additional assets) and Portland's 2025 2nd. Houston could send Jeff Green plus either Tate or Landale, plus draft compensation, ideally Houston's 2025 1st. In both cases, the trade would be for Brown as a player, but also as a mid-sized expiring salary to potentially be part of a larger trade. He can also be resigned at a number likely noticeably smaller than his current salary, probably closer to the NTMLE, which could be very valuable to many teams.

[ConSarnit]

How does the MLE help us as a salary dump vehicle? I feel like I’m missing something there.

We do have a few avenues as far as matching salary for dumps. If I had to guess I would think that competitive teams would want Brown as they would want a 1-year stop gap and he’s the most “proven” of any of our flotsam guys. Maybe some team sees Boucher as a rotation guy as well.

I really can’t tell what’s going to happen with Brown. Would teams still take him on thinking he’s a key rotation piece or is his salary too expensive, even if it’s just for a year?

If we want to do a salary dump now does it make sense to use Boucher + McDaniels and then hold onto Brown hoping some team needs him before the next deadline? I really don’t know.

A contending team will be the only kind of team interested in Brown. So the problem arises in that those kinds of teams are either going to have to aggregate much needed depth to match Brown's number and/or they're going to have to send a key piece. Either way, it's going to be long term money since there's really no sense to move expiring players for another expiring player.

Sacramento should be interested, particularly if they lose Monk, which is a distinct possibility. Houston is another. Sacramento might send Huerter (who could be flipped at the TDL for additional assets) and Portland's 2025 2nd. Houston could send Jeff Green plus either Tate or Landale, plus draft compensation, ideally Houston's 2025 1st. In both cases, the trade would be for Brown as a player, but also as a mid-sized expiring salary to potentially be part of a larger trade. He can also be resigned at a number likely noticeably smaller than his current salary, probably closer to the NTMLE, which could be very valuable to many teams.

I can’t see why HOU would give up a 1st in a good draft for Brown. They are loaded with players of his ilk. It also seems like they are chasing bigger fish (the rumored Bridges deal) so giving up a 1st to deplete assets for a bigger trade doesn’t make much sense.

I feel like if SAC is looking to get off of Huerter’s money it’s to create some breathing room to re-sign Monk + add depth. If Monk walks for nothing they’ll be $20m under the tax. Brown doesn’t really solve those problems.

[islandboy53]

Was such a deal on the table?

Knicks I believe were offering Fournier and a 2024 FRP.

It’s still a bit unclear. Sounds like Woj was pushing the Brown’s agenda to get him traded but deal never materialized. Grange reported we were offered a 1st but I am not sure if that offer was still on the table at the time of reporting. Other insiders when they say Grange reporting sounds like it would be good news for Raptors as the noise was looking pessimistic Toronto getting a noise.

With the rumors mills it’s not always easy to decrypt the actual offer received from the actual asking value. Sometimes you may want to put out there you’ve received such an offer to generate some demands.

I am still skeptical that we really turned down a 1st + expiring for Brown.

But maybe we did…

It seems highly likely that the New York offer was there, but Toronto was looking for a future pick (vs 2024), and in the meantime the Knicks got a deal they preferred with Detroit. In short, they didn't "turn down" the deal, it just didn't work out, as is the case with the vast majority of deals which teams discuss.

[Pointgod]

The biggest mistake was not trading brown for an expiring and 1st. Would solve all our money problems

I was told by some very smart posters that Masai could get the same deals or better deals in the summer holding onto Brown instead of trading him for a first at the deadline…..

I said it was a mistake at the time and we’ll probably just end up cutting him, but I doubt we get a first for him.

[ConSarnit]

The biggest mistake was not trading brown for an expiring and 1st. Would solve all our money problems

If they could've got a first, I would think trade would've already been made. Also, for a team to trade an expiring contract at deadline AND a first round pick, they would have to be pretty convinced of Brown's contribution to winning. Biggest mistake was overestimating his value in trade market thinking they could turn around and trade him.

They have one last chance in the draft. If a team was desperate to unload a contract, they could attach a draft pick to the contract to trade for Brown and cut him right away to be off the hook. Webster made a huge deal about the uniqueness of how his contract is structured so make use of it. If that fails, I would seriously consider just cutting him loose. But chances are, they'll probably keep him around just in case similar to how they kept Thad Young around almost to the bitter end.

I don’t think a team that trades for Brown can cut him. I believe he has to be opted in before he can be traded because if he’s not opted in he’s considered expired and therefor not tradable. His value as an expiring (this year) really only applies to us now.

(I’m not 100% confident the above is true, just trying to remember what another poster who is more familiar with the CBA said about Brown and his option).

[causal_fan]

The biggest mistake was not trading brown for an expiring and 1st. Would solve all our money problems

I was told by some very smart posters that Masai could get the same deals or better deals in the summer holding onto Brown instead of trading him for a first at the deadline…..

I said it was a mistake at the time and we’ll probably just end up cutting him, but I doubt we get a first for him.

IF the Raptors turned down an expiring and a FRP for Brown, then that was a poor decision but I have no idea if the Raptors turned down such a deal and we have to see what eventually happens with Brown before we make definitive conclusions.

[ConSarnit]

The biggest mistake was not trading brown for an expiring and 1st. Would solve all our money problems

I was told by some very smart posters that Masai could get the same deals or better deals in the summer holding onto Brown instead of trading him for a first at the deadline…..

I said it was a mistake at the time and we’ll probably just end up cutting him, but I doubt we get a first for him.

I don’t think there is really any harm in holding onto him at this point. We’re likely operating as an over the cap team so we’ll have the MLE. I guess we could carve out $20m but does anyone really see a worthwhile FA, or more importantly have ANY confidence that we can sign someone to a fair-ish market deal for $20m+ given our history? Maybe it’s just me being gun shy. Either way, keep Brown and:

-some team actually needs him and we get an asset
-some team wants to dump salary and we get an asset
-he expires

If the offers were late 1sts in the 2024 draft I’d roll the dice that maybe we can do better. Will we? I don’t know. But adding another late 1st in a bad draft in which we already have 3 picks in the top 31 has to be a big case of diminishing returns.

[ArthurVandelay]

The biggest mistake was not trading brown for an expiring and 1st. Would solve all our money problems

I was told by some very smart posters that Masai could get the same deals or better deals in the summer holding onto Brown instead of trading him for a first at the deadline…..

I said it was a mistake at the time and we’ll probably just end up cutting him, but I doubt we get a first for him.

You could very well be right.

I think cutting him would actually create the most value. You then have up to $32M to acquire contracts in exchange for assets/future picks. Teams looking to shed salary might want to take back a large TPE rather than $23M in Brown.

In a perfect world, they could have done that and traded for another 2024 1st (Fournier and 2024 1st) and then still had the cap space to do take contracts for future picks, but whatever.

[islandboy53]

A contending team will be the only kind of team interested in Brown. So the problem arises in that those kinds of teams are either going to have to aggregate much needed depth to match Brown's number and/or they're going to have to send a key piece. Either way, it's going to be long term money since there's really no sense to move expiring players for another expiring player.

Sacramento should be interested, particularly if they lose Monk, which is a distinct possibility. Houston is another. Sacramento might send Huerter (who could be flipped at the TDL for additional assets) and Portland's 2025 2nd. Houston could send Jeff Green plus either Tate or Landale, plus draft compensation, ideally Houston's 2025 1st. In both cases, the trade would be for Brown as a player, but also as a mid-sized expiring salary to potentially be part of a larger trade. He can also be resigned at a number likely noticeably smaller than his current salary, probably closer to the NTMLE, which could be very valuable to many teams.

I can’t see why HOU would give up a 1st in a good draft for Brown. They are loaded with players of his ilk. It also seems like they are chasing bigger fish (the rumored Bridges deal) so giving up a 1st to deplete assets for a bigger trade doesn’t make much sense.

I feel like if SAC is looking to get off of Huerter’s money it’s to create some breathing room to re-sign Monk + add depth. If Monk walks for nothing they’ll be $20m under the tax. Brown doesn’t really solve those problems.

I'm just setting out some potential scenarios for Brown trades to teams which are non contenders, but want to improve. Houston with their young roster would definitely benefit from his unique skills and experience. Their 2025 1st (which could be Brooklyn's) may be more than they're willing to pay, but Green and Landale have close to zero value, so they have to give something to get Brown. Sacramento can only sign Monk to a starting salary of about $17.4 million, which is why someone like Detroit is very likely to pick him up. In that situation, sending Huerter for Brown leaves them room to use most of the NTMLE and still be under the tax. If they keep Monk, it's challenging to make the tax math work. There are certainly other teams out there who have Brown among their options.

[islandboy53]

The biggest mistake was not trading brown for an expiring and 1st. Would solve all our money problems

If they could've got a first, I would think trade would've already been made. Also, for a team to trade an expiring contract at deadline AND a first round pick, they would have to be pretty convinced of Brown's contribution to winning. Biggest mistake was overestimating his value in trade market thinking they could turn around and trade him.

They have one last chance in the draft. If a team was desperate to unload a contract, they could attach a draft pick to the contract to trade for Brown and cut him right away to be off the hook. Webster made a huge deal about the uniqueness of how his contract is structured so make use of it. If that fails, I would seriously consider just cutting him loose. But chances are, they'll probably keep him around just in case similar to how they kept Thad Young around almost to the bitter end.

I don’t think a team that trades for Brown can cut him. I believe he has to be opted in before he can be traded because if he’s not opted in he’s considered expired and therefor not tradable. His value as an expiring (this year) really only applies to us now.

(I’m not 100% confident the above is true, just trying to remember what another poster who is more familiar with the CBA said about Brown and his option).

You are 100% correct. Brown's option has to be picked up for him to be traded.

[Scase]

The biggest mistake was not trading brown for an expiring and 1st. Would solve all our money problems

If they could've got a first, I would think trade would've already been made. Also, for a team to trade an expiring contract at deadline AND a first round pick, they would have to be pretty convinced of Brown's contribution to winning. Biggest mistake was overestimating his value in trade market thinking they could turn around and trade him.

They have one last chance in the draft. If a team was desperate to unload a contract, they could attach a draft pick to the contract to trade for Brown and cut him right away to be off the hook. Webster made a huge deal about the uniqueness of how his contract is structured so make use of it. If that fails, I would seriously consider just cutting him loose. But chances are, they'll probably keep him around just in case similar to how they kept Thad Young around almost to the bitter end.

I don’t think a team that trades for Brown can cut him. I believe he has to be opted in before he can be traded because if he’s not opted in he’s considered expired and therefor not tradable. His value as an expiring (this year) really only applies to us now.

(I’m not 100% confident the above is true, just trying to remember what another poster who is more familiar with the CBA said about Brown and his option).

You are 100% correct. We cannot trade him unless we pick up his option. We had to move him by the trade deadline, or we pick up the option and try and trade him in the off season. It's why it was such a bad idea to hold onto him, he went from guaranteed value, to potentially another UFA walking.

The only rumoured trade of value was the knicks offering fournier and a 2024 FRP. And the knicks specifically chose to offer the 2024 pick, and not any others, because the draft is weak. The likelihood of him being traded for a 2025 FRP is pretty low, and the only teams that have genuine use for him either have nothing to offer of value (suns for example), or would be incredibly stupid to give up a bunch of assets to shed a little bit of salary (GSW for example).

The potential suitors are bad to non-existent now, holding onto him was a mistake.

[Rapsfan07]

The biggest mistake was not trading brown for an expiring and 1st. Would solve all our money problems

I was told by some very smart posters that Masai could get the same deals or better deals in the summer holding onto Brown instead of trading him for a first at the deadline…..

I said it was a mistake at the time and we’ll probably just end up cutting him, but I doubt we get a first for him.

Yup. If they weren't able to get a first for him with a year and half left on his deal, I don't see why they'd get one for him now.

Only way that happens is if we're willing to take on long term salary for him and that's assuming those teams even have picks to give in the first place.

[ArthurVandelay]

If they could've got a first, I would think trade would've already been made. Also, for a team to trade an expiring contract at deadline AND a first round pick, they would have to be pretty convinced of Brown's contribution to winning. Biggest mistake was overestimating his value in trade market thinking they could turn around and trade him.

They have one last chance in the draft. If a team was desperate to unload a contract, they could attach a draft pick to the contract to trade for Brown and cut him right away to be off the hook. Webster made a huge deal about the uniqueness of how his contract is structured so make use of it. If that fails, I would seriously consider just cutting him loose. But chances are, they'll probably keep him around just in case similar to how they kept Thad Young around almost to the bitter end.

I don’t think a team that trades for Brown can cut him. I believe he has to be opted in before he can be traded because if he’s not opted in he’s considered expired and therefor not tradable. His value as an expiring (this year) really only applies to us now.

(I’m not 100% confident the above is true, just trying to remember what another poster who is more familiar with the CBA said about Brown and his option).

You are 100% correct. We cannot trade him unless we pick up his option. We had to move him by the trade deadline, or we pick up the option and try and trade him in the off season. It's why it was such a bad idea to hold onto him, he went from guaranteed value, to potentially another UFA walking.

The only rumoured trade of value was the knicks offering fournier and a 2024 FRP. And the knicks specifically chose to offer the 2024 pick, and not any others, because the draft is weak. The likelihood of him being traded for a 2025 FRP is pretty low, and the only teams that have genuine use for him either have nothing to offer of value (suns for example), or would be incredibly stupid to give up a bunch of assets to shed a little bit of salary (GSW for example).

The potential suitors are bad to non-existent now, holding onto him was a mistake.

His team option is still valuable in that he can be dropped and his $23M becomes cap space which would be useful to numerous teams. Small consolation but it is something.

[kalel123]

The biggest mistake was not trading brown for an expiring and 1st. Would solve all our money problems

If they could've got a first, I would think trade would've already been made. Also, for a team to trade an expiring contract at deadline AND a first round pick, they would have to be pretty convinced of Brown's contribution to winning. Biggest mistake was overestimating his value in trade market thinking they could turn around and trade him.

They have one last chance in the draft. If a team was desperate to unload a contract, they could attach a draft pick to the contract to trade for Brown and cut him right away to be off the hook. Webster made a huge deal about the uniqueness of how his contract is structured so make use of it. If that fails, I would seriously consider just cutting him loose. But chances are, they'll probably keep him around just in case similar to how they kept Thad Young around almost to the bitter end.

I don’t think a team that trades for Brown can cut him. I believe he has to be opted in before he can be traded because if he’s not opted in he’s considered expired and therefor not tradable. His value as an expiring (this year) really only applies to us now.

(I’m not 100% confident the above is true, just trying to remember what another poster who is more familiar with the CBA said about Brown and his option).

Huh, could've sworn I saw reports suggesting that because his opt-in date is after the draft, he can be traded without the option picked up and the team that gets him can not opt in or opt out so he can basically become a FA. Or at least, that was the logic used to explain why not trading him at deadline still wasn't total disaster. So that wasn't true?

[ConSarnit]

If they could've got a first, I would think trade would've already been made. Also, for a team to trade an expiring contract at deadline AND a first round pick, they would have to be pretty convinced of Brown's contribution to winning. Biggest mistake was overestimating his value in trade market thinking they could turn around and trade him.

They have one last chance in the draft. If a team was desperate to unload a contract, they could attach a draft pick to the contract to trade for Brown and cut him right away to be off the hook. Webster made a huge deal about the uniqueness of how his contract is structured so make use of it. If that fails, I would seriously consider just cutting him loose. But chances are, they'll probably keep him around just in case similar to how they kept Thad Young around almost to the bitter end.

I don’t think a team that trades for Brown can cut him. I believe he has to be opted in before he can be traded because if he’s not opted in he’s considered expired and therefor not tradable. His value as an expiring (this year) really only applies to us now.

(I’m not 100% confident the above is true, just trying to remember what another poster who is more familiar with the CBA said about Brown and his option).

You are 100% correct. We cannot trade him unless we pick up his option. We had to move him by the trade deadline, or we pick up the option and try and trade him in the off season. It's why it was such a bad idea to hold onto him, he went from guaranteed value, to potentially another UFA walking.

The only rumoured trade of value was the knicks offering fournier and a 2024 FRP. And the knicks specifically chose to offer the 2024 pick, and not any others, because the draft is weak. The likelihood of him being traded for a 2025 FRP is pretty low, and the only teams that have genuine use for him either have nothing to offer of value (suns for example), or would be incredibly stupid to give up a bunch of assets to shed a little bit of salary (GSW for example).

The potential suitors are bad to non-existent now, holding onto him was a mistake.

If I had to bet I would say we come out on the short end of that 2024 1st offer. I do think the following caveats could apply:

-that 2024 1st (likely the 25th pick) is not worth much, especially to us when we already have 3 picks in the top 31. If we get a top 40 pick in 2025 or 2026 that might be the equivalent of the 25th pick in a bad draft

-a market could develop for Brown as teams strike out in FA or the suffer injuries during the regular season. He’s seemingly not viewed as just some flotsam dead money guy (ex. Fournier) but as a player who can actually contribute on a good team

I don’t think the ship has fully sailed on getting back value for Brown. I don’t think we’ll do better than a ‘24 1st but I could still see us getting something of equal value. The value of that rumored ‘24 1st is Agbaji-adjacent. That’s not a high bar to have to beat. That’s a reflection on how bad this draft likely is. I’d be willing to take the risk that a market emerges for Brown, mainly because I don’t think we’ll do any better if we just cut him and turn him into cap space.

[ConSarnit]

If they could've got a first, I would think trade would've already been made. Also, for a team to trade an expiring contract at deadline AND a first round pick, they would have to be pretty convinced of Brown's contribution to winning. Biggest mistake was overestimating his value in trade market thinking they could turn around and trade him.

They have one last chance in the draft. If a team was desperate to unload a contract, they could attach a draft pick to the contract to trade for Brown and cut him right away to be off the hook. Webster made a huge deal about the uniqueness of how his contract is structured so make use of it. If that fails, I would seriously consider just cutting him loose. But chances are, they'll probably keep him around just in case similar to how they kept Thad Young around almost to the bitter end.

I don’t think a team that trades for Brown can cut him. I believe he has to be opted in before he can be traded because if he’s not opted in he’s considered expired and therefor not tradable. His value as an expiring (this year) really only applies to us now.

(I’m not 100% confident the above is true, just trying to remember what another poster who is more familiar with the CBA said about Brown and his option).

Huh, could've sworn I saw reports suggesting that because his opt-in date is after the draft, he can be traded without the option picked up and the team that gets him can not opt in or opt out so he can basically become a FA. Or at least, that was the logic used to explain why not trading him at deadline still wasn't total disaster. So that wasn't true?

The issue is that it’s an “opt-in”. If I’m right, the way Browns contract works is his 2nd year has to be opted-in, which means as of right now Brown is effectively not under NBA contract. And if he’s not under contract he can’t be traded. If we want to trade someone they have to be under contract for next season. The only way Brown is under contract is if we opt him “in”. Brown is effectively the same as Trent (UFA) until we opt him in.

(Again, not 100% sure about the above)

[Pointgod]

The biggest mistake was not trading brown for an expiring and 1st. Would solve all our money problems

I was told by some very smart posters that Masai could get the same deals or better deals in the summer holding onto Brown instead of trading him for a first at the deadline…..

I said it was a mistake at the time and we’ll probably just end up cutting him, but I doubt we get a first for him.

IF the Raptors turned down an expiring and a FRP for Brown, then that was a poor decision but I have no idea if the Raptors turned down such a deal and we have to see what eventually happens with Brown before we make definitive conclusions.

There were reports that the cost for Brown was a first. Here’s the thing, I don’t believe that the Raptors were actively trying to trade Brown which is what they should have done because if they wanted to get a first for him they obviously could have.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/esfandiarbaraheni/2024/02/02/bruce-browns-unique-contract-gives-raptors-leverage-ahead-of-deadline/

he New York Knicks, Los Angeles Lakers, Philadelphia 76ers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Sacramento Kings and pretty much any team within the vicinity of a playoff spot should be gauging what it would take to acquire Brown ahead of a post-season run. The reported price has been clear: a 1st round pick and possibly a player of intrigue attached.

[MiamiSPX]

If they could've got a first, I would think trade would've already been made. Also, for a team to trade an expiring contract at deadline AND a first round pick, they would have to be pretty convinced of Brown's contribution to winning. Biggest mistake was overestimating his value in trade market thinking they could turn around and trade him.

They have one last chance in the draft. If a team was desperate to unload a contract, they could attach a draft pick to the contract to trade for Brown and cut him right away to be off the hook. Webster made a huge deal about the uniqueness of how his contract is structured so make use of it. If that fails, I would seriously consider just cutting him loose. But chances are, they'll probably keep him around just in case similar to how they kept Thad Young around almost to the bitter end.

I don’t think a team that trades for Brown can cut him. I believe he has to be opted in before he can be traded because if he’s not opted in he’s considered expired and therefor not tradable. His value as an expiring (this year) really only applies to us now.

(I’m not 100% confident the above is true, just trying to remember what another poster who is more familiar with the CBA said about Brown and his option).

Huh, could've sworn I saw reports suggesting that because his opt-in date is after the draft, he can be traded without the option picked up and the team that gets him can not opt in or opt out so he can basically become a FA. Or at least, that was the logic used to explain why not trading him at deadline still wasn't total disaster. So that wasn't true?

I believe I saw someone on X say this also, but it's not accurate. The option needs to be exercised before he's traded. That was a significant part of his value at the last trade deadline, because the acquiring team wasn't married to him if it didn't work out.

Now you're on the hook paying him 23M for a 15M player. There is still value in that some teams may want that contract on their books for future trades but they absolutely lost value by not trading him at the deadline.