Keith Smith: Raptors 2024 offseason analysis

[Chandan]

Not adding talent.... Uh ok Keith

How can anyone watch these games and think the Raps are fine as far as talent is concerned lol?

fixed

[Scase]

I don’t think a team that trades for Brown can cut him. I believe he has to be opted in before he can be traded because if he’s not opted in he’s considered expired and therefor not tradable. His value as an expiring (this year) really only applies to us now.

(I’m not 100% confident the above is true, just trying to remember what another poster who is more familiar with the CBA said about Brown and his option).

You are 100% correct. We cannot trade him unless we pick up his option. We had to move him by the trade deadline, or we pick up the option and try and trade him in the off season. It's why it was such a bad idea to hold onto him, he went from guaranteed value, to potentially another UFA walking.

The only rumoured trade of value was the knicks offering fournier and a 2024 FRP. And the knicks specifically chose to offer the 2024 pick, and not any others, because the draft is weak. The likelihood of him being traded for a 2025 FRP is pretty low, and the only teams that have genuine use for him either have nothing to offer of value (suns for example), or would be incredibly stupid to give up a bunch of assets to shed a little bit of salary (GSW for example).

The potential suitors are bad to non-existent now, holding onto him was a mistake.

If I had to bet I would say we come out on the short end of that 2024 1st offer. I do think the following caveats could apply:

-that 2024 1st (likely the 25th pick) is not worth much, especially to us when we already have 3 picks in the top 31. If we get a top 40 pick in 2025 or 2026 that might be the equivalent of the 25th pick in a bad draft

-a market could develop for Brown as teams strike out in FA or the suffer injuries during the regular season. He’s seemingly not viewed as just some flotsam dead money guy (ex. Fournier) but as a player who can actually contribute on a good team

I don’t think the ship has fully sailed on getting back value for Brown. I don’t think we’ll do better than a ‘24 1st but I could still see us getting something of equal value. The value of that rumored ‘24 1st is Agbaji-adjacent. That’s not a high bar to have to beat. That’s a reflection on how bad this draft likely is. I’d be willing to take the risk that a market emerges for Brown, mainly because I don’t think we’ll do any better if we just cut him and turn him into cap space.

I definitely agree that a 25th-ish pick isn't exactly setting the world on fire, but it would've been fournier who is also on an expiring. So we basically get to trade Brown, get an actual asset in return, and then free up cap space the next summer.

Whereas now, we either let him walk this summer, or pick up the option and gamble that we get something as good as that pick in return while also having to take salary back. Or worst case, no one bites and we are stuck with him for the rest of the year and he expires next year. Which is essentially the Knicks trade, except we also get a pick.

This draft isn't bad in the sense that the 25th this year = 40th next year. It's bad in the sense that it is not a top heavy draft with clear cut star players. A 25th pick is likely the equivalent to a 25th pick any other year. We got burned waiting with FVV, we got burned waiting with Siakam, and without the OG/Knicks connection, we likely get burned there. This choice paralysis is death by a thousand cuts.

We don't have an Ant, or a Wemby, or a Luka etc. We lack the benefit of having the hardest part of the team in place, allowing us the freedom to be a bit more selective. We have Scottie who has yet to show he can be a true #1 on a team, an extremely limited player in RJ, IQ who I see capping out as an AS level player, and Gradey who is still largely an unknown. We have a roster with 4 long term players on it, only 1 of which has a chance at reaching the upper echelons of NBA talent. We do not have the freedom to keep wasting time trying to extract the absolute possible value out of a mediocre asset.

This has been Masai's constant downfall, the last few years. Always trying to get exactly and only what he wants out of a trade, only for it to blow up in our faces multiple times.

[Rapsfan07]

You are 100% correct. We cannot trade him unless we pick up his option. We had to move him by the trade deadline, or we pick up the option and try and trade him in the off season. It's why it was such a bad idea to hold onto him, he went from guaranteed value, to potentially another UFA walking.

The only rumoured trade of value was the knicks offering fournier and a 2024 FRP. And the knicks specifically chose to offer the 2024 pick, and not any others, because the draft is weak. The likelihood of him being traded for a 2025 FRP is pretty low, and the only teams that have genuine use for him either have nothing to offer of value (suns for example), or would be incredibly stupid to give up a bunch of assets to shed a little bit of salary (GSW for example).

The potential suitors are bad to non-existent now, holding onto him was a mistake.

If I had to bet I would say we come out on the short end of that 2024 1st offer. I do think the following caveats could apply:

-that 2024 1st (likely the 25th pick) is not worth much, especially to us when we already have 3 picks in the top 31. If we get a top 40 pick in 2025 or 2026 that might be the equivalent of the 25th pick in a bad draft

-a market could develop for Brown as teams strike out in FA or the suffer injuries during the regular season. He’s seemingly not viewed as just some flotsam dead money guy (ex. Fournier) but as a player who can actually contribute on a good team

I don’t think the ship has fully sailed on getting back value for Brown. I don’t think we’ll do better than a ‘24 1st but I could still see us getting something of equal value. The value of that rumored ‘24 1st is Agbaji-adjacent. That’s not a high bar to have to beat. That’s a reflection on how bad this draft likely is. I’d be willing to take the risk that a market emerges for Brown, mainly because I don’t think we’ll do any better if we just cut him and turn him into cap space.

I definitely agree that a 25th-ish pick isn't exactly setting the world on fire, but it would've been fournier who is also on an expiring. So we basically get to trade Brown, get an actual asset in return, and then free up cap space the next summer.

Whereas now, we either let him walk this summer, or pick up the option and gamble that we get something as good as that pick in return while also having to take salary back. Or worst case, no one bites and we are stuck with him for the rest of the year and he expires next year. Which is essentially the Knicks trade, except we also get a pick.

This draft isn't bad in the sense that the 25th this year = 40th next year. It's bad in the sense that it is not a top heavy draft with clear cut star players. A 25th pick is likely the equivalent to a 25th pick any other year. We got burned waiting with FVV, we got burned waiting with Siakam, and without the OG/Knicks connection, we likely get burned there. This choice paralysis is death by a thousand cuts.

We don't have an Ant, or a Wemby, or a Luka etc. We lack the benefit of having the hardest part of the team in place, allowing us the freedom to be a bit more selective. We have Scottie who has yet to show he can be a true #1 on a team, an extremely limited player in RJ, IQ who I see capping out as an AS level player, and Gradey who is still largely an unknown. We have a roster with 4 long term players on it, only 1 of which has a chance at reaching the upper echelons of NBA talent. We do not have the freedom to keep wasting time trying to extract the absolute possible value out of a mediocre asset.

This has been Masai's constant downfall, the last few years. Always trying to get exactly and only what he wants out of a trade, only for it to blow up in our faces multiple times.

Couldn't have said it better myself. And before the Masai apologists come for my head - he admitted the same thing about himself. Just gives too many chances and is way, way too slow to make the moves he needs to make. It has costed the team quite a bit of the last few years

[will]

Not familiar with Keith Smith.

This Doug's brother?

[ArthurVandelay]

I don’t think a team that trades for Brown can cut him. I believe he has to be opted in before he can be traded because if he’s not opted in he’s considered expired and therefor not tradable. His value as an expiring (this year) really only applies to us now.

(I’m not 100% confident the above is true, just trying to remember what another poster who is more familiar with the CBA said about Brown and his option).

Huh, could've sworn I saw reports suggesting that because his opt-in date is after the draft, he can be traded without the option picked up and the team that gets him can not opt in or opt out so he can basically become a FA. Or at least, that was the logic used to explain why not trading him at deadline still wasn't total disaster. So that wasn't true?

The issue is that it’s an “opt-in”. If I’m right, the way Browns contract works is his 2nd year has to be opted-in, which means as of right now Brown is effectively not under NBA contract. And if he’s not under contract he can’t be traded. If we want to trade someone they have to be under contract for next season. The only way Brown is under contract is if we opt him “in”. Brown is effectively the same as Trent (UFA) until we opt him in.

(Again, not 100% sure about the above)

You’re right from a practical perspective

All options or ETO’s are assumed to be picked up. In other words if the team or player did nothing the contract would automatically be “picked up.”

To opt out, either the player or team has to file that with the league.

But to the point of this discussion, the only way Brown gets traded before June 30 is if he is making $23m next season.

[ConSarnit]

You are 100% correct. We cannot trade him unless we pick up his option. We had to move him by the trade deadline, or we pick up the option and try and trade him in the off season. It's why it was such a bad idea to hold onto him, he went from guaranteed value, to potentially another UFA walking.

The only rumoured trade of value was the knicks offering fournier and a 2024 FRP. And the knicks specifically chose to offer the 2024 pick, and not any others, because the draft is weak. The likelihood of him being traded for a 2025 FRP is pretty low, and the only teams that have genuine use for him either have nothing to offer of value (suns for example), or would be incredibly stupid to give up a bunch of assets to shed a little bit of salary (GSW for example).

The potential suitors are bad to non-existent now, holding onto him was a mistake.

If I had to bet I would say we come out on the short end of that 2024 1st offer. I do think the following caveats could apply:

-that 2024 1st (likely the 25th pick) is not worth much, especially to us when we already have 3 picks in the top 31. If we get a top 40 pick in 2025 or 2026 that might be the equivalent of the 25th pick in a bad draft

-a market could develop for Brown as teams strike out in FA or the suffer injuries during the regular season. He’s seemingly not viewed as just some flotsam dead money guy (ex. Fournier) but as a player who can actually contribute on a good team

I don’t think the ship has fully sailed on getting back value for Brown. I don’t think we’ll do better than a ‘24 1st but I could still see us getting something of equal value. The value of that rumored ‘24 1st is Agbaji-adjacent. That’s not a high bar to have to beat. That’s a reflection on how bad this draft likely is. I’d be willing to take the risk that a market emerges for Brown, mainly because I don’t think we’ll do any better if we just cut him and turn him into cap space.

I definitely agree that a 25th-ish pick isn't exactly setting the world on fire, but it would've been fournier who is also on an expiring. So we basically get to trade Brown, get an actual asset in return, and then free up cap space the next summer.

Whereas now, we either let him walk this summer, or pick up the option and gamble that we get something as good as that pick in return while also having to take salary back. Or worst case, no one bites and we are stuck with him for the rest of the year and he expires next year. Which is essentially the Knicks trade, except we also get a pick.

This draft isn't bad in the sense that the 25th this year = 40th next year. It's bad in the sense that it is not a top heavy draft with clear cut star players. A 25th pick is likely the equivalent to a 25th pick any other year. We got burned waiting with FVV, we got burned waiting with Siakam, and without the OG/Knicks connection, we likely get burned there. This choice paralysis is death by a thousand cuts.

We don't have an Ant, or a Wemby, or a Luka etc. We lack the benefit of having the hardest part of the team in place, allowing us the freedom to be a bit more selective. We have Scottie who has yet to show he can be a true #1 on a team, an extremely limited player in RJ, IQ who I see capping out as an AS level player, and Gradey who is still largely an unknown. We have a roster with 4 long term players on it, only 1 of which has a chance at reaching the upper echelons of NBA talent. We do not have the freedom to keep wasting time trying to extract the absolute possible value out of a mediocre asset.

This has been Masai's constant downfall, the last few years. Always trying to get exactly and only what he wants out of a trade, only for it to blow up in our faces multiple times.

The 25th pick in this draft is not going to make or break this team, especially when we are picking 19th and 31st. We already know what the front office thinks of this draft as they traded away a late 1st for a so-so prospect in Agbaji. They think Agbaji is better than whoever they can get in the late 20’s. If we have any confidence left in this FO it should be based around their ability to draft. They obviously think having 3 non-lotto picks in a bad draft is overkill. The diminishing returns alone make kicking the Brown can down the road likely worthwhile. Has any team ever hit on 4 picks in a draft? No. Someone is getting lost in the shuffle.

I understand your point of view, I just believe the 25th pick this year has even lower value to us because of our surplus of picks. I’ll take the chance on some team valuing Brown, even if it’s less of a sure thing than the 25th pick.

[Scase]

If I had to bet I would say we come out on the short end of that 2024 1st offer. I do think the following caveats could apply:

-that 2024 1st (likely the 25th pick) is not worth much, especially to us when we already have 3 picks in the top 31. If we get a top 40 pick in 2025 or 2026 that might be the equivalent of the 25th pick in a bad draft

-a market could develop for Brown as teams strike out in FA or the suffer injuries during the regular season. He’s seemingly not viewed as just some flotsam dead money guy (ex. Fournier) but as a player who can actually contribute on a good team

I don’t think the ship has fully sailed on getting back value for Brown. I don’t think we’ll do better than a ‘24 1st but I could still see us getting something of equal value. The value of that rumored ‘24 1st is Agbaji-adjacent. That’s not a high bar to have to beat. That’s a reflection on how bad this draft likely is. I’d be willing to take the risk that a market emerges for Brown, mainly because I don’t think we’ll do any better if we just cut him and turn him into cap space.

I definitely agree that a 25th-ish pick isn't exactly setting the world on fire, but it would've been fournier who is also on an expiring. So we basically get to trade Brown, get an actual asset in return, and then free up cap space the next summer.

Whereas now, we either let him walk this summer, or pick up the option and gamble that we get something as good as that pick in return while also having to take salary back. Or worst case, no one bites and we are stuck with him for the rest of the year and he expires next year. Which is essentially the Knicks trade, except we also get a pick.

This draft isn't bad in the sense that the 25th this year = 40th next year. It's bad in the sense that it is not a top heavy draft with clear cut star players. A 25th pick is likely the equivalent to a 25th pick any other year. We got burned waiting with FVV, we got burned waiting with Siakam, and without the OG/Knicks connection, we likely get burned there. This choice paralysis is death by a thousand cuts.

We don't have an Ant, or a Wemby, or a Luka etc. We lack the benefit of having the hardest part of the team in place, allowing us the freedom to be a bit more selective. We have Scottie who has yet to show he can be a true #1 on a team, an extremely limited player in RJ, IQ who I see capping out as an AS level player, and Gradey who is still largely an unknown. We have a roster with 4 long term players on it, only 1 of which has a chance at reaching the upper echelons of NBA talent. We do not have the freedom to keep wasting time trying to extract the absolute possible value out of a mediocre asset.

This has been Masai's constant downfall, the last few years. Always trying to get exactly and only what he wants out of a trade, only for it to blow up in our faces multiple times.

The 25th pick in this draft is not going to make or break this team, especially when we are picking 19th and 31st. We already know what the front office thinks of this draft as they traded away a late 1st for a so-so prospect in Agbaji. They think Agbaji is better than whoever they can get in the late 20’s. If we have any confidence left in this FO it should be based around their ability to draft. They obviously think having 3 non-lotto picks in a bad draft is overkill. The diminishing returns alone make kicking the Brown can down the road likely worthwhile. Has any team ever hit on 4 picks in a draft? No. Someone is getting lost in the shuffle.

I understand your point of view, I just believe the 25th pick this year has even lower value to us because of our surplus of picks. I’ll take the chance on some team valuing Brown, even if it’s less of a sure thing than the 25th pick.

There's nothing to say we need to keep the pick though. Much like with the KO/Ochai trade, we can combine it with something else. Plenty of teams are cash strapped right now, and extra picks go a long way with trying to reduce it and finding a player, no reason we couldn't package boucher and the 25th for something.

The issue with Brown is that if the Knicks weren't willing to throw anything more valuable than a late 2024 pick, then he really doesn't have nearly as much value as Masai and some others think, deja vu huh? Which means anything being offered after the fact is likely going to be worth even less. Brown was the perfect value before the deadline, teams could trade for him, add him to the team, see how he fits, and if it doesn't work, they don't pick up his option. Basically zero risk, if we couldn't get anything worthwhile for that perfect situation, I highly doubt we'll be seeing anything better in the offseason.

[Pointgod]

I definitely agree that a 25th-ish pick isn't exactly setting the world on fire, but it would've been fournier who is also on an expiring. So we basically get to trade Brown, get an actual asset in return, and then free up cap space the next summer.

Whereas now, we either let him walk this summer, or pick up the option and gamble that we get something as good as that pick in return while also having to take salary back. Or worst case, no one bites and we are stuck with him for the rest of the year and he expires next year. Which is essentially the Knicks trade, except we also get a pick.

This draft isn't bad in the sense that the 25th this year = 40th next year. It's bad in the sense that it is not a top heavy draft with clear cut star players. A 25th pick is likely the equivalent to a 25th pick any other year. We got burned waiting with FVV, we got burned waiting with Siakam, and without the OG/Knicks connection, we likely get burned there. This choice paralysis is death by a thousand cuts.

We don't have an Ant, or a Wemby, or a Luka etc. We lack the benefit of having the hardest part of the team in place, allowing us the freedom to be a bit more selective. We have Scottie who has yet to show he can be a true #1 on a team, an extremely limited player in RJ, IQ who I see capping out as an AS level player, and Gradey who is still largely an unknown. We have a roster with 4 long term players on it, only 1 of which has a chance at reaching the upper echelons of NBA talent. We do not have the freedom to keep wasting time trying to extract the absolute possible value out of a mediocre asset.

This has been Masai's constant downfall, the last few years. Always trying to get exactly and only what he wants out of a trade, only for it to blow up in our faces multiple times.

The 25th pick in this draft is not going to make or break this team, especially when we are picking 19th and 31st. We already know what the front office thinks of this draft as they traded away a late 1st for a so-so prospect in Agbaji. They think Agbaji is better than whoever they can get in the late 20’s. If we have any confidence left in this FO it should be based around their ability to draft. They obviously think having 3 non-lotto picks in a bad draft is overkill. The diminishing returns alone make kicking the Brown can down the road likely worthwhile. Has any team ever hit on 4 picks in a draft? No. Someone is getting lost in the shuffle.

I understand your point of view, I just believe the 25th pick this year has even lower value to us because of our surplus of picks. I’ll take the chance on some team valuing Brown, even if it’s less of a sure thing than the 25th pick.

There's nothing to say we need to keep the pick though. Much like with the KO/Ochai trade, we can combine it with something else. Plenty of teams are cash strapped right now, and extra picks go a long way with trying to reduce it and finding a player, no reason we couldn't package boucher and the 25th for something.

The issue with Brown is that if the Knicks weren't willing to throw anything more valuable than a late 2024 pick, then he really doesn't have nearly as much value as Masai and some others think, deja vu huh? Which means anything being offered after the fact is likely going to be worth even less. Brown was the perfect value before the deadline, teams could trade for him, add him to the team, see how he fits, and if it doesn't work, they don't pick up his option. Basically zero risk, if we couldn't get anything worthwhile for that perfect situation, I highly doubt we'll be seeing anything better in the offseason.

This guy gets it. This is why I wasn’t a fan of trading a pick for guys like Olynyk and Agbaji, even if it’s a low first round pick. We’re giving up our flexibility. Lots of teams over the cap that would look for cheap talent on rookie contracts that would be willing to give up pick swaps. Or we could be the third team facilitating a trade, giving up a first to take back a young player with potential, this is exactly how the Cavs got Jarrett Allen.

That’s why I’m not a fan of the pick management over the years. 2018 traded a pick to unload Demare Carol, 2019 was the pick to the Spurs for Kwahi (worth it), 2022 we traded out of the first round into for a second round pick, we traded the OKC pick this year for Olynyk and Agbaji and we’re losing what’s most likely a lottery pick either this year or next year for Poeltl. For a team who’s not a free agent destination and doesn’t make big trades, not stacking up on first round picks doesn’t make sense since it’s our best avenue to get better