Stat of the day: East Playoff Probability Report

[supersub15]

Link

The playoff probability reports will be generated on a daily basis until the end of the regular season. The probabilties are empirical estimates based on simulating the remainder of the season 1000 times. Although I am not going to give complete details at this time, the method has been tried and tested: it was used to win the TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown in both 2007 and 2008.

Code: Select all

Rk                     W    L    W-L%
1 Cleveland Cavaliers 64.6 17.4 .788
2 Boston Celtics      63.6 18.4 .776
3 Orlando Magic       59.0 23.0 .719
4 Atlanta Hawks       45.0 37.0 .549
5 Miami Heat          41.6 40.4 .507
6 Philadelphia 76ers  41.2 40.8 .503
7 Detroit Pistons     38.9 43.1 .474
8 Milwaukee Bucks     38.5 43.5 .470

9 Chicago Bulls       38.3 43.7 .467
10 Indiana Pacers     35.5 46.5 .433
11 New York Knicks    35.2 46.8 .429
12 New Jersey Nets    34.5 47.5 .421
13 Charlotte Bobcats  34.2 47.8 .416
14 Toronto Raptors    33.9 48.1 .413
15 Washington Wizards 19.8 62.2 .242

Now, looking at the remainder of our schedule and being very optimistic:

Tough games (probable losses):
@ Phoenix Suns
@ Dallas Mavericks
@ Houston Rockets
Utah Jazz
@ Orlando Magic

Favourable games (probable wins):
Miami Heat
Indiana Pacers
@ Charlotte Bobcats
Charlotte Bobcats
Los Angeles Clippers
Milwaukee Bucks
Oklahoma City Thunder
Chicago Bulls
New York Knickerbockers
Atlanta Hawks
Washington Wizards
Philadelphia 76ers
@ Washington Wizards

Toss-up games (games that will probably decide the season):
@ Philadelphia 76ers
Detroit Pistons
@ New York Knickerbockers
@ Indiana Pacers
@ Chicago Bulls

[nizaam]

I don't want to see a cleveland sweep where we lose by 30 each time.

[Yosemite Dan]

You are the supreme optimist. Perhaps the upcoming 3 game sweep we incur will convince you we are not even coming close to the playoffs this year. This team has not shown anything in the last month to indicate any type of run. Even against bad teams we can barely win.

[YKYW]

On the flip of this, it looks like we should be right in that 8 slot pretty comfortably for the draft.

While I would love to see this team play .700 ball or above over the next 23 games, I don't think it is going to happen and thats about the only way we can push for that 8th seed. If we play .750 ball and make the playoffs, I think we'll give whoever is in that first seed a tough series.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Not so surprising given how the season has played out. The West is going to monopolize the top of the draft this season with 6 of the 7 worst teams based on these estimates. That puts the Raptors fighting to draft anywhere from 8th to 12th depending on how the games shake down since there are only 1.6 wins separating the Raptors from the Pacers in these estimates.

[Gold Chain]

As long as we have no more blowout losses, I will be okay with not making the playoffs.

Play hard in each game, all I am asking for at this point.

[alpha]

If anyone in here thinks we're making the playoffs, I'll be happy to take your money. There is absolutely no chance this team gets there and I'm a diehard.

[Avenger]

expected results to me, i don't want to know what's gonna happen to the team and this fanbase after an upcoming 7 game losing streak, its very likely

[Raps in 4]

No thanks, I'd rather have a top 15 pick, even if it will suck, at least we can hope for that 2nd overall.

[s e n s i]

Ah, look at all the pessimists flood the thread. And don't say you're a realist, because a 7 game losing streak or "zero chance" of making the playoffs doesn't sound too realistic to me. Much crazier things have happened, and 4.5 games back with 23 to play, although not likely, is certainly not insurmountable, considering that 14 of our last 16 opponents to close out the season are lottery-bound.

[vulture]

If this team makes the playoffs, it will be a bigger disaster than picking Bargnani number one. It will set this franchise back 10 more years.

[Avenger]

If this team makes the playoffs, it will be a bigger disaster than picking Bargnani number one. It will set this franchise back 10 more years.

yeah, the difference between a 15th pick and the 8th pick would set us back for 10 more years, can't wait to hear what's the rationale behind that

[Raps in 4]

If this team makes the playoffs, it will be a bigger disaster than picking Bargnani number one. It will set this franchise back 10 more years.

-1 for the first part of your post, but +1 for the second. Good job.

[Yosemite Dan]

Ah, look at all the pessimists flood the thread. And don't say you're a realist, because a 7 game losing streak or "zero chance" of making the playoffs doesn't sound too realistic to me. Much crazier things have happened, and 4.5 games back with 23 to play, although not likely, is certainly not insurmountable, considering that 14 of our last 16 opponents to close out the season are lottery-bound.

Did BC just hire you as a public relations man for RealGM?

Everyone is a pessimist because the Raps have exhibited no cohesion, desire or hard work this season to give anybody any hope to make the playoffs.

They get JO and play so badly they get the coach fired. They trade JO and bring in Marion and what happens. They get smacked by SA, embarrased by the Knicks and then barely beat the same Knicks Sunday and can't even put away the Twolves until the last minute.

And you expect us to be optimistic. This team plays like it doesn't care. Because no one can play defense that badly and care. Now all of a sudden thier gonna just pick it up because Jose and Bosh have decided to become all world defenders. With a swiss cheese defense you can't go on any winning streak and hence neither have the Raps this year. It's an exercise in futility to expect them to finish any higher than 11th. If you don't believe me just watch and see.

[Kc17]

Did BC just hire you as a public relations man for RealGM?

Everyone is a pessimist because the Raps have exhibited no cohesion, desire or hard work this season to give anybody any hope to make the playoffs.

They get JO and play so badly they get the coach fired. They trade JO and bring in Marion and what happens. They get smacked by SA, embarrased by the Knicks and then barely beat the same Knicks Sunday and can't even put away the Twolves until the last minute.

And you expect us to be optimistic. This team plays like it doesn't care. Because no one can play defense that badly and care. Now all of a sudden thier gonna just pick it up because Jose and Bosh have decided to become all world defenders. With a swiss cheese defense you can't go on any winning streak and hence neither have the Raps this year. It's an exercise in futility to expect them to finish any higher than 11th. If you don't believe me just watch and see.

@Bold: Have you watched the team since the trade? We lost to the Cav's without Bosh(did you expect us to win that game?), we got pounded by the Knicks(no excuse for this one), we came home and comfortably beat the Knicks, then we dominated the T-wolves with the exception of the first quarter. The team is actually running now, AP & Bargs have played great since they started to run. Bosh seemed to find his groove in that game vs the Wolves as well. This team can only go up from here, if they can go 4-3 or 5-2 over the next 7 game stretch then playoffs would be very realistic considering the soft schedule down the stretch.

You just seem like another one of those guys who want a high draft pick in a mediocre draft.

[s e n s i]

Ah, look at all the pessimists flood the thread. And don't say you're a realist, because a 7 game losing streak or "zero chance" of making the playoffs doesn't sound too realistic to me. Much crazier things have happened, and 4.5 games back with 23 to play, although not likely, is certainly not insurmountable, considering that 14 of our last 16 opponents to close out the season are lottery-bound.

Did BC just hire you as a public relations man for RealGM?

Everyone is a pessimist because the Raps have exhibited no cohesion, desire or hard work this season to give anybody any hope to make the playoffs.

They get JO and play so badly they get the coach fired. They trade JO and bring in Marion and what happens. They get smacked by SA, embarrased by the Knicks and then barely beat the same Knicks Sunday and can't even put away the Twolves until the last minute.

And you expect us to be optimistic. This team plays like it doesn't care. Because no one can play defense that badly and care. Now all of a sudden thier gonna just pick it up because Jose and Bosh have decided to become all world defenders. With a swiss cheese defense you can't go on any winning streak and hence neither have the Raps this year. It's an exercise in futility to expect them to finish any higher than 11th. If you don't believe me just watch and see.

Relax there, champ. Negativity does nothing except lower your expectations so that when they're not exceeded, you can feel happy about yourself and that you we're right to begin with.

It's unlikely that the Raptors will win enough games to make the playoffs, but still probable, and will be until the numbers state otherwise. And who is asking you to be optimistic? I frankly couldn't care less if majority of this board wrote off the team already. All it does is make you feel nice about yourself that you knew they wouldn't make the playoffs. Yet, if they do reel off a few wins in a row, no one will give a sh*t if you hop on the bandwagon.

Do I think the Raptors will make the playoffs? Realistically, no.

Do I think the Raptors still have a chance to make the playoffs? Yes. Not a good chance, but a chance nonetheless, and I'll cheer for them until the asterisk hovers around 'Toronto' and implies we're mathematically eliminated.

[Rapsobsessed7]

i hate people that dont want this team to win, where did all your support go. If you dont want the raptors to win go cheer for another team, go post on another board and support them why do we need your negativity. We want to make the playoffs, how can you say you dont want us too, april isnt the same without raptor ball. Again your one of those people who want a high draft pick and would rather the team go 0-82 if your not gonna support the team through good and bad i dont see how you can be a fan. If your younger i dont see how you could ever get commit to marriage, im assuming as soon as your marriage starts having problems your going to leave to the next women but infact you miss the old one. Same thing with the raptors youll miss playoff ball when april comes, i for one cannot stand losing even if were already eliminated i dont care. I want us to win every game we can, because i support the team no matter what i dont throw them under the bus, show some support and lets get the sea of red back in april.

Go Raps Go

[Bringbackoakley]

I wouldn't even have a probable games column. There are the games that will be probable losses and then there are toss ups, there is no reason to believe we should probably beat all of those teams.

[223red]

If your younger i dont see how you could ever get commit to marriage, im assuming as soon as your marriage starts having problems your going to leave to the next women but infact you miss the old one.

If the rules of marriage included drafting an additional wife out of the top 25 hottest 19-22 year olds in the world each year, you might be on to something...

[CrownJ]

raps have a chance to have a 40-win season if they win all the games thats in the Favourable games (probable wins) + steal 4 games.