Staying in school might become all the rage soon, based on the experiences of collegiate stars like Blake Griffin, Jordan Hill, James Harden, Hasheem Thabeet and Stephen Curry. The junior combo became a household name last March with a series of heroic performances in the NCAA tournament, and has clearly upped his draft stock by deciding to return for another year.
Curry isn’t scoring quite as efficiently as last season, but he’s become even more prolific—currently ranking as the #1 scorer in college basketball any way you slice it. His 3-point percentages are down by almost 6%, but he is getting to the free throw line at a much better rate to compensate, and shoots 87% once there. Best of all, Curry’s assist numbers are through the roof now that he’s taken over the point guard duties full time from Jason Richards (who graduated), dishing out twice as many this season while only increasing his turnovers marginally. He’s also become one of the best ball-thieves in college basketball, at over 3 steals per game.
There isn’t a player in the country who receives as much scrutiny from opposing defenses as Curry does. The entire game-plan of every team he faces revolves solely around shutting him down, which makes it a little bit difficult to accurately evaluate him. The problem is that his teammates just aren’t good enough to punish the opposition for the way they ignore them, as they rely so incredibly heavily on his ability to generate offense for them. Curry shoulders an unbelievable share of the offensive load for Davidson, ranking #1 in the NCAA in usage rate, and #2 in field goal attempts per-40. He’s one of the few players in the NCAA that you can actually say that the game will likely become easier for once he’s in the NBA, playing alongside better players and getting far more easy looks.
The biggest revelation of this season is the relative ease in which Curry has converted to the point guard position. Still obviously possessing a shoot-first mentality, Curry has looked fairly unselfish running his team’s offense, displaying excellent court vision and a real knack for getting teammates involved (relative to the team’s situation). He does a good job on the pick and roll, and is a much more creative passer than we were previously able to see, capable of handling the ball with either hand and being very adept at playing at different speeds. Although he’s probably never going to be a pure playmaker in the Steve Nash or Chris Paul mold, he plays the game at an excellent pace, looks extremely poised at all times, and appears to show a good enough feel for the game to at least develop into a capable facilitator, ala Mike Bibby or Mo Williams.
The best part of Curry’s game clearly remains his perimeter shooting ability. Automatic with his feet set, he is very adept at coming off screens as well, being capable of setting his feet in an instant and getting his shot off incredibly quickly, already possessing NBA range on his jump-shot. Because of how few open looks he gets, he’s had to become a prolific off the dribble shooter as well, especially going left after creating his own shot, and particularly in transition, where he excels.
Because of the incredibly high difficulty of shots he’s capable of converting, Curry has a tendency to settle for a couple of truly awful attempts every game, showing absolutely no conscious. It’s difficult to gauge whether this has more to do with his role on the team, or if he just really overestimates his shooting ability at times. As cool and composed as he looks on the court at all times, he may even be a little too nonchalant on occasion, making some careless plays that lead to turnovers. He does rank 14th in the NCAA in turnovers per-40 after all.
One of the bigger concerns about Curry’s offensive game is that he does not project to become a prolific slasher at the NBA level. His first step is average at best, and considering his skinny frame and poor explosiveness around the basket in traffic, it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to get to the free throw line anywhere near as much in the NBA as he does in college. While he is a good ball-handler and is excellent at using change of speeds, fakes and hesitation moves to get by defenders, he usually prefers to settle for a pull-up jumper rather than take the way all the way to the rim. For that reason he’ll probably need to have some other shot-creators playing alongside him, especially in order to take full advantage of his perimeter shooting ability. He is extremely crafty about getting to the basket, really knowing how to exaggerate contact (some would say flopping) in order to draw fouls, which currently gets him to the line at a very nice rate.
Defensively, Curry puts a solid effort in, but is extremely limited by his poor physical tools on this end of the floor. He lacks great height, length or strength, and possesses below average lateral quickness, making him a potential defensive liability when being matched up with some of the more explosive guards the NBA is known for. He is a fairly tough kid, willing to stick his nose in and take a charge, and also seems to have a terrific knack for getting in the passing lanes (ranking amongst the top ball-thieves in the NCAA in steals), being extremely intelligent about following the scouting report. His lack of strength makes him susceptible to being posted up, though, and also makes it difficult for him to fight through screens. Although offensively it appears that he can play both guard spots, on the defensive end he would likely struggle badly guarding NBA shooting guards.
All in all, Curry has had a tougher time than he did last season with all the added attention that has been thrown his way, but he still projects as a very solid pro. In the right situation, alongside the right teammates, he could be a very effective NBA player, and his excellent intangibles and winning mentality lead you to believe that he’ll find a way to carve out a successful niche. The real question is whether he indeed decides to come out this year—so far he’s given little indication of that, as all signs point to him being extremely happy at Davidson. From a business standpoint, it makes little sense not to declare for the draft, though, as there is almost nothing left for him to prove at the collegiate level, and quite a bit to lose if things go wrong. It wouldn’t shock us to see the decision go either way.
Again not without flaws but I like what he brings to the table.
