Hollinger: No clue how Raps will perform

[Alodar]

Statistically, Hollinger’s analysis is spot on.

It is impossible to predict based on previous performance how the Raptors will do next season.

From the 2008/2009 33 win roster only 3 players are returning whom I would consider in the top 10 of this year’s depth chart ( Calderon , Jack, Derozan, Belinelli, Wright, Turkoglu, Evans, Bosh , Bargnani , Nesterovic). It is even difficult to predict the play of the returning players based on last season’s performance. Jose was fighting injuries for most of the season, Andrea was inconsistent but came on in the second half and Chris, although 20/10, had injuries, and for half the season was fighting Jermaine O’Neal for space.

You might like the moves, or think the individuals that were brought in are an improvement over the individuals that went out. You might think our front court is a mismatch nightmare for other teams, or you might think our defence will be porous, depending of course on what system we use and how the players might work together. You might think we’ll win 50 games next season, or 41 or 74 or 12. But none of our predictions are based on stats or previous permorance.

And, between the drivel, that is what Hollinger is stating: There is nothing statistical to base his prediction on how well the Raptors will do next season. He is simply guessing – as are we all.

[Yuri Vaultin]

One thing is for certain this season, that was definitely not last year; when in crunch time and nursing a lead we now have the depth to give starters a rest and have players with a higher defensive b-ball IQ than a grapefruit.

Nice avatar, Yuri. Oldboy is a classic, can you believe holywood will be remaking this classic?

Don't even get me started on this... I heard Speilberg and &*%$#@! Wil Smith no less... Makes me want to puke. A project like this (if it HAS to be made) should be reserved for Quentin Tarantino and Benicio Del Toro.

[Prop]

I'm not sure why people are finding "Euroraps" so offensive, unless of course people find being European offensive, in which case you should be looking at yourself. In North America, when a team is made of a majority that aren't North American players, articles make note of this. Its not just in sports either. Regular news articles usually make note of a person's nationality.

It is always amusing how much people love anyone who gives the Raptors positive comments, and hate everyone who gives them negative. You don't need to be loved by everyone; this is just one guy's personal opinion. I would say the Raptors aren't going to be beating their all-time win record, but they will not be below .500 either.

well, this is the raptors board: where emotional instability happens.

[vulture]

One thing is for certain this season, that was definitely not last year; when in crunch time and nursing a lead we now have the depth to give starters a rest and have players with a higher defensive b-ball IQ than a grapefruit.

Nice avatar, Yuri. Oldboy is a classic, can you believe holywood will be remaking this classic?

Don't even get me started on this... I heard Speilberg and &*%$#@! Wil Smith no less... Makes me want to puke. A project like this (if it HAS to be made) should be reserved for Quentin Tarantino and Benicio Del Toro.

No, Yuri! Keep it away from them. I can't see Hollywood recreating the beautiful cinematography and that hallway scene can never be duplicated.

[Natural11]

I agree with what he's saying. We have so many wildcards that it's impossible to predict how it will all go down. If Jose and Bargs have break-out years and Turk improves as well, we will be a very dangerous team. On the other hand, if Turk struggles and we get nothing out of the 2 guard, all of a sudden we're a weak rebounding team with weak wings (last year anyone?). I can't see this team being worse than last years, but how much better, only time will tell.

[burn1down]

Interesting how the Kapono for Evans trade is so often overlooked and forgotten. I am not suggesting he will solve our defensive and rebounding problems, but he will add things that have been missing for sure. I look forward to seeing him come in and define his role.

These rankings are pretty premature as well. To say that Washington and the Raps are mysteries. . . .well, they were both bad teams last year who on paper got a lot better.

I also tend to think that there is a MUCH better chance that you will see a good and consistent year from Bargs than you will of a healthy 82 games from KG. . .so that kind of breaks down his ranking right there.

What does bug me about the article is that he could have at least mentioned how much better the Raps got. This team started to get embarrasing last season. Then they add key free agents, make trades to address depth and weakness, and no doubt about it got better. However all that is mentioned is he doesnt know were the raps fit.

[carlosey]

Summary: The raptors could be good or they could be bad.

Great analysis. I want that job. Maybe I could also score a sweet salary to write things like Euraptors thinking its funny and not 5th grade-ish at all.

[Indiana Jones]

the only thing that bugs me about this article is the slight at DeMar. Had just about any other team picked him, Hollinger would probably like his potential, especially given his SL play. But since he's a Raptor, it's wide open to the typical Raptor bashing.

[Brinbe]

the only thing that bugs me about this article is the slight at DeMar. Had just about any other team picked him, Hollinger would probably like his potential, especially given his SL play. But since he's a Raptor, it's wide open to the typical Raptor bashing.

Remember this? http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft200 ... ter-090618

The unpleasant surprise: DeMar DeRozan

I'd be hard-pressed to name a potential high lottery pick throughout the years about whom the Draft Rater has been less excited. I rated 90 prospects for this draft, and DeRozan ranked 54th among them. Two of his USC teammates -- Daniel Hackett and Taj Gibson -- outranked him, as did assorted other nonentities such as Kevin Rogers, Chinemelu Elonu and Ben Woodside. I'll wait here while you Google them.

Why? Because there really isn't anything in DeRozan's statistical profile that makes you think "NBA star." He rarely took or made 3-pointers, and he had a strongly negative pure point rating, which are two powerful indicators for a wing player. His numbers in other areas were unimpressive, too. In particular, he was a bad free throw shooter, which indicates that his outside shot might never be a strong suit.

Some scouts I have talked to have compared DeRozan to Rudy Gay in terms of being an NBA athlete but having a questionable motor. But that comparison falls flat, according to the Draft Rater: Gay was the top-rated player in his draft class, while DeRozan is nowhere close. And although he's supposed to be a great athlete, he didn't show it on the court often enough: His rebound, block and steal totals were all very ordinary.

As I mentioned above, one-and-done players sometimes fool the system -- they're the youngest, least experienced guys in the pool, and thus, a major factor is how much they improve post-draft rather than just how good they are pre-draft.

Nonetheless, I would back away from DeRozan if the 12 relatively safe guys at the top of the Draft Rater are still on the board.

Speaking of which, let's take a look at the collegians for 2009.

Yeah, he's never really been a DD fan...

[SilentRAM]

I hate to admit it, but I agree with Hollinger.

There are so many question marks about our team.

Will Andrea live up to his performance in the second half of last season?

Will Marco thrive with more playing time?

Will Hedo continue to play well now that he has a big contract?

Will Triano prove critics wrong and show us he's capable of being a head coach with more talent under him?

Is DeMar the REAL DEAL?

Can Calderon stay healthy and return to being one of the top point guards in the league?

Will the Raps be able to play good enough defense and grab enough boards to win games?

Since I am a BIG Raptor fan, I am obviously optimistic we'll have a great season, but I can understand why outsiders see us as a BIG question mark.

[Vorticity]

thanks for the nothingness, Hollinger.

[hotsizzle262]

its hard to say because i thought we were going to do good with JO but that didn't happean

[Kevin Willis]

Statistically, Hollinger’s analysis is spot on.

It is impossible to predict based on previous performance how the Raptors will do next season.

From the 2008/2009 33 win roster only 3 players are returning whom I would consider in the top 10 of this year’s depth chart ( Calderon , Jack, Derozan, Belinelli, Wright, Turkoglu, Evans, Bosh , Bargnani , Nesterovic). It is even difficult to predict the play of the returning players based on last season’s performance. Jose was fighting injuries for most of the season, Andrea was inconsistent but came on in the second half and Chris, although 20/10, had injuries, and for half the season was fighting Jermaine O’Neal for space.

You might like the moves, or think the individuals that were brought in are an improvement over the individuals that went out. You might think our front court is a mismatch nightmare for other teams, or you might think our defence will be porous, depending of course on what system we use and how the players might work together. You might think we’ll win 50 games next season, or 41 or 74 or 12. But none of our predictions are based on stats or previous permorance.

And, between the drivel, that is what Hollinger is stating: There is nothing statistical to base his prediction on how well the Raptors will do next season. He is simply guessing – as are we all.

But that can be said about all teams (uncertainty) and part of his job is to make predictions or educated guesses. The thing is he's stating that they will be spectacular or horrible and his reasons for it are generic. Hey Cleveland can be great with Lebron and horrible without him. Orlando's offense may suffer with VC and their defense may not get for half a season. Boston's Big 4 can regress to a point that they get blown by athletic teams. But based off of his basketball acumen he should be able to do a better prediction that someone like me, and I could say what he said. Some teams have less "ifs" and they're usually the ones that really suck or are really good. LAC, LAL. He can do better.

[FluLikeSymptoms]

I still have yet to read a Hollinger piece which would make me believe he watches basketball games.

I think we're going to see a lot of blowouts this year, but that we'll be on the right side of the majority of those. We can score, get out to a big lead if everyone is hitting, and have Jack to maintain things. Teams quit in the regular season, ask Cleveland. Having Jack to fall back on puts us in a separate class from last year, subbing offense/defense at PG at the end of games sounds great. Yuri also made a great point about our team IQ. We're so much smarter than last year- the only smart player we lost was Parker, who folded in crunch time. Marion was a smart player, but then he'd shoot(shove?).

We're built for the regular season, it's the playoffs which are going to be a problem. We'll get pasted when our bigs get in foul trouble and people aren't hitting, or when we go up against powerful teams who don't have to hope for makes, but we've got the offense to win regular season games. I don't see how we could be a "spectacular failure" with the punch we've got unless everybody gets hurt. We're going to get good looks because we've got Jose, Hedo and Jack distributing and players who need to be double-teamed. Oh, and there are 3 good teams in the East.

[T0R0NT0_RAPT0RS]

Remember this? http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft200 ... ter-090618

Nonetheless, I would back away from DeRozan if the 12 relatively safe guys at the top of the Draft Rater are still on the board.

Speaking of which, let's take a look at the collegians for 2009.

Yeah, he's never really been a DD fan...

Thanks Brinbe for the insider post. Would it be possible to post those "12 relatively safe guys" he thinks should have been drafted before DD?

[Marz]

Shows Hollinger's usefullness without his precious statistics. By saying he's expecting a brilliant success or spectacular failure he's giving himself a nice window to be somewhat right. What would he do without stats? Well, he'd probably guess that every team has a chance of brilliant success or spectacular failure.

[redshortz]

To hell with this Hollister cat, or whatever his name is. His opinions are vague and generalized.

[Reignman]

I'm going to disagree with John on this one. This season, we'll be neither "Brilliantly Successful" nor a "Spectacular Failure". Chances are this is a 45 win team hoping to get some internal development to take the next step in a couple of years. Internal growth and future trades will take us to "Brilliantly Successful" (or "Spectacular Failure").

[bballsparkin]

No, Yuri! Keep it away from them. I can't see Hollywood recreating the beautiful cinematography and that hallway scene can never be duplicated.

I've never seen this movie Oldboy. You two have me intrigued. I'm putting it on my list to see. Thanks.
You know Hollywood, they'll wreck anything for money.


As to the write up. Meh, he has a point. I think Washington should do well too, but, we'll see. I agree, the menu write up is lame though.

[bballsparkin]

Interesting how the Kapono for Evans trade is so often overlooked and forgotten. I am not suggesting he will solve our defensive and rebounding problems, but he will add things that have been missing for sure. I look forward to seeing him come in and define his role.

Considering how Tdot fans love blue collar players, and how our team was dubbed "the Cottenelles" as of late, I think Evans is going to love playing here. All he has to do is play hard and rugged and he will be appreciated.