Chasing History: Game 18 (Phoenix)

[supersub15]

Game Stats:
Pace: 97.0
Defensive Efficiency: 116.5
Offensive Efficiency: 96.9

We gave up our season average on defence (still worst in NBA history), but our offence sputtered with 1-20 shooting from 3. We go even a mediocre 4-20, and the game is going down to the wire. However, this proves one thing. This team cannot win, unless it's firing on all cylinders. If 2 or 3 players sputter on offence, we lose, and we lose badly, because we cannot hunker down and play some D when things are not going well offensively. If this is how things are going to transpire for the rest of the season, then no playoffs.


4 factors of success:

Code: Select all

                      eFG%   FT Rate   OReb%   TOV%
        Phoenix       0.589   0.167    0.275   0.175
        Toronto       0.397   0.228    0.288   0.124

We were badly outshot. Period. We won the battle of offensive rebounding, free throws and turnovers, but the disparity in shooting was so pronounced, it was game over.

Code: Select all

                                Toronto   Phoenix
        Fast break points:         6          16
        Points in the paint:      52          36
        Points off turnovers:     21          13

We dominated the paint for once, but that's due to Channing Frye on the Suns, who camps out at the 3-point line all day. Bosh was a force inside against their weak frontcourt, but it wasn't enough.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Cumulative Stats:
Pace: 93.5 (12th)
Defensive Efficiency: 116.9 (30th) / Worst DRTG Ever: 1990-1991 Nuggets: 114.7
Offensive Efficiency: 112.2 (3rd) / Best ORTG Ever: 1986-1987 Lakers: 115.6

4 factors:
eFG% (offence): 0.513 (10th) - eFG% (league average): 0.496 (diff: +3.4%)
eFG% (defence): 0.527 (27th) - eFG% (league average): 0.496 (diff: -6.3%)

FT% (offence): 0.267 (3rd) - FT% (league average): 0.228 (diff: +17.1%)
FT% (defence): 0.268 (27th) - FT% (league average): 0.228 (diff: -17.5%)

OReb% (offence): 0.269 (14th) - OReb% (league average): 0.266 (diff: +0.7%)
OReb% (defence): 0.279 (23rd) - OReb% (league average): 0.266 (diff: -4.9%)

TOV% (offence): 0.126 (3rd) - TOV% (league average): 0.138 (diff: +9.5%)
TOV% (defence): 0.114 (29th) - TOV% (league average): 0.138 (diff: -21.1%)

Miscellaneous Stats:

Code: Select all

                Fastbreak    Paint Pts    Pts off TOs
                For   Agst   For   Agst   For   Agst
    Cleveland   12     9     38     32    13     22
    Memphis      6    15     52     52    22     18
    Orlando      5    14     38     28    15     18
    Detroit      9     9     34     38    17      9
    New Orleans  6     7     36     42    27      7
    Dallas      12    24     38     56    11     21
    San Antonio 12     5     44     50     9     18
    Chicago     16    13     50     34    12     12
    Clippers     7     8     44     34    24     14
    Phoenix      4    10     40     38    17      6
    Denver      15    21     34     68    21     21
    Utah        12    19     36     54    13     12
    Miami        6     6     38     38    12     25
    Orlando      9     4     42     28     8      8
    Indiana     13    14     38     26    20     12
    Charlotte   10    41     44     74     8     29
    Boston      22    22     48     68    19     24
    Phoenix      6    16     52     36    21     13
   _________________________________________________
    Average    10.6  13.8   41.4   44.2  16.1   16.0

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Next Opponent: Washington Wizards

Pace: 92.3
DRtg: 108.1 (20th)
ORtg: 103.5 (25th)

Team Four Factors

Code: Select all

                 Team                 Opp
eFG%    .467 (26th of 30)    .491 (14th of 30)
TOV%    .139 (16th of 30)    .126 (24th of 30)
ORB%    .285 (6th of 30)    .272 (19th of 30)
FT/FGA    .231 (14th of 30)    .246 (24th of 30)

Watch out for the Wizards's offensive rebounding. They might not be the best shooters, but with all the second-chance points they're going to get, it might be closer than it should, which might allow them to win it.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Eastern Conference Rankings (SRS) - with SoS:
(1) 2. Boston Celtics - #28
(2) 5. Atlanta Hawks - #8
(3) 6. Orlando Magic - #10
(4) 13. Cleveland Cavaliers - #22
(5) 15. Charlotte Bobcats - #15
(6) 16. Milwaukee Bucks - #25
(7) 17. Miami Heat - #26
(8) 18. Detroit Pistons - #5
____________________________________
(9) 20. Toronto Raptors - #4
(10) 22. Indiana Pacers - #30
(11) 24. Washington Wizards - #17
(12) 25. Chicago Bulls - #3
(13) 27. Philadelphia 76ers - #23
(14) 28. New York Knickerbockers - #24
(15) 29. New Jersey Nets - #20

Despite all the losses piling up lately, the Raptors are still in a decent position. We've played the 4th toughest schedule in the NBA, and the bottom half of the playoffs seedings in the Eastern Conference is still pretty weak.

[vini_vidi_vici]

Amir and Bosh have really improved our OReb from last year, but it seems we still give up too many second chance points, and our defense in general have really disappointed, so they are only marginal in terms of helping us. Thanks for this Sub, you are easily the best poster here.

[Fairview4Life]

Is 4-20 from 3 really "firing on all cylinders"?

[supersub15]

Is 4-20 from 3 really "firing on all cylinders"?

No, it's "mediocre 4-20".

[jim todd]

Is 4-20 from 3 really "firing on all cylinders"?

No, it's "mediocre 4-20".

man i would have loved to see 4-20 yesterday instead of 47 minutes of three point bricks. thanks for the stats, supersub.

[Fairview4Life]

Is 4-20 from 3 really "firing on all cylinders"?

No, it's "mediocre 4-20".

So the Raps really wouldn't have needed to be firing on all cylinders then, right? Just have a normal day from 3. Perhaps a nice 8-20 or a firing on all cylinders 10 or 12 for 20 and we're talking about how great the team is again.

Gotta make some shats!

[supersub15]

Is 4-20 from 3 really "firing on all cylinders"?

No, it's "mediocre 4-20".

So the Raps really wouldn't have needed to be firing on all cylinders then, right? Just have a normal day from 3. Perhaps a nice 8-20 or a firing on all cylinders 10 or 12 for 20 and we're talking about how great the team is again.

Gotta make some shats!

Sorry, shats come and go. Defence should be the constant. If you expect hot shooting to bail you out game in and game out, you're going to disappointed.

[Fairview4Life]

Sorry, shats come and go. Defence should be the constant. If you expect hot shooting to bail you out game in and game out, you're going to disappointed.

It is my friend, it is.

Anyway, I thought we already covered that we didn't need hot shooting, just mediocre shooting. Or even just bad shooting. Not "make me want to drive to the ACC and start choking bitches" shooting.

[D-Wins-RingsIMO]

hey SS,

do you have the ORtg and DRtg saved for each game and easy to get in a spreadsheet? If you do can you just post the data in bulk?

I want to see what the variance of our ORtg / DRtg is as per the formulae in Oliver's book.

I have a bad feeling our ORtg variance is much higher which does not bode well at all .....

Yeah, if we went 4/20 yest things would be different. But if we're a high variance shooting team, there's going to be games where we go 13/20 and win by 15 pts .... in a sense those are "wasted" made buckets that you pay the price on the next time you go 1/20 ... and it's not like we can D up to grind out those games.

High variance is great to beat teams that are better than you, but it's a **** bitch when it causes you to drop games to shite teams.

[dacrusha]

Is 4-20 from 3 really "firing on all cylinders"?

No, it's "mediocre 4-20".

So the Raps really wouldn't have needed to be firing on all cylinders then, right? Just have a normal day from 3. Perhaps a nice 8-20 or a firing on all cylinders 10 or 12 for 20 and we're talking about how great the team is again.

Gotta make some shats!

What's sad is that PHX was leaving our outside shooters open over and over again but, unfortunately, we missed wide open 3 after wide open 3.

[plainballing]

Game Stats:
Pace: 97.0
Defensive Efficiency: 116.5
Offensive Efficiency: 96.9

We gave up our season average on defence (still worst in NBA history), but our offence sputtered with 1-20 shooting from 3. We go even a mediocre 4-20, and the game is going down to the wire. However, this proves one thing. This team cannot win, unless it's firing on all cylinders. If 2 or 3 players sputter on offence, we lose, and we lose badly, because we cannot hunker down and play some D when things are not going well offensively. If this is how things are going to transpire for the rest of the season, then no playoffs.


4 factors of success:

Code: Select all

                      eFG%   FT Rate   OReb%   TOV%
        Phoenix       0.589   0.167    0.275   0.175
        Toronto       0.397   0.228    0.288   0.124

We were badly outshot. Period. We won the battle of offensive rebounding, free throws and turnovers, but the disparity in shooting was so pronounced, it was game over.

Code: Select all

                                Toronto   Phoenix
        Fast break points:         6          16
        Points in the paint:      52          36
        Points off turnovers:     21          13

We dominated the paint for once, but that's due to Channing Frye on the Suns, who camps out at the 3-point line all day. Bosh was a force inside against their weak frontcourt, but it wasn't enough.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Cumulative Stats:
Pace: 93.5 (12th)
Defensive Efficiency: 116.9 (30th) / Worst DRTG Ever: 1990-1991 Nuggets: 114.7
Offensive Efficiency: 112.2 (3rd) / Best ORTG Ever: 1986-1987 Lakers: 115.6

4 factors:
eFG% (offence): 0.513 (10th) - eFG% (league average): 0.496 (diff: +3.4%)
eFG% (defence): 0.527 (27th) - eFG% (league average): 0.496 (diff: -6.3%)

FT% (offence): 0.267 (3rd) - FT% (league average): 0.228 (diff: +17.1%)
FT% (defence): 0.268 (27th) - FT% (league average): 0.228 (diff: -17.5%)

OReb% (offence): 0.269 (14th) - OReb% (league average): 0.266 (diff: +0.7%)
OReb% (defence): 0.279 (23rd) - OReb% (league average): 0.266 (diff: -4.9%)

TOV% (offence): 0.126 (3rd) - TOV% (league average): 0.138 (diff: +9.5%)
TOV% (defence): 0.114 (29th) - TOV% (league average): 0.138 (diff: -21.1%)

Miscellaneous Stats:

Code: Select all

                Fastbreak    Paint Pts    Pts off TOs
                For   Agst   For   Agst   For   Agst
    Cleveland   12     9     38     32    13     22
    Memphis      6    15     52     52    22     18
    Orlando      5    14     38     28    15     18
    Detroit      9     9     34     38    17      9
    New Orleans  6     7     36     42    27      7
    Dallas      12    24     38     56    11     21
    San Antonio 12     5     44     50     9     18
    Chicago     16    13     50     34    12     12
    Clippers     7     8     44     34    24     14
    Phoenix      4    10     40     38    17      6
    Denver      15    21     34     68    21     21
    Utah        12    19     36     54    13     12
    Miami        6     6     38     38    12     25
    Orlando      9     4     42     28     8      8
    Indiana     13    14     38     26    20     12
    Charlotte   10    41     44     74     8     29
    Boston      22    22     48     68    19     24
    Phoenix      6    16     52     36    21     13
   _________________________________________________
    Average    10.6  13.8   41.4   44.2  16.1   16.0

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Next Opponent: Washington Wizards

Pace: 92.3
DRtg: 108.1 (20th)
ORtg: 103.5 (25th)

Team Four Factors

Code: Select all

                 Team                 Opp
eFG%    .467 (26th of 30)    .491 (14th of 30)
TOV%    .139 (16th of 30)    .126 (24th of 30)
ORB%    .285 (6th of 30)    .272 (19th of 30)
FT/FGA    .231 (14th of 30)    .246 (24th of 30)

Watch out for the Wizards's offensive rebounding. They might not be the best shooters, but with all the second-chance points they're going to get, it might be closer than it should, which might allow them to win it.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Eastern Conference Rankings (SRS) - with SoS:
(1) 2. Boston Celtics - #28
(2) 5. Atlanta Hawks - #8
(3) 6. Orlando Magic - #10
(4) 13. Cleveland Cavaliers - #22
(5) 15. Charlotte Bobcats - #15
(6) 16. Milwaukee Bucks - #25
(7) 17. Miami Heat - #26
(8) 18. Detroit Pistons - #5
____________________________________
(9) 20. Toronto Raptors - #4
(10) 22. Indiana Pacers - #30
(11) 24. Washington Wizards - #17
(12) 25. Chicago Bulls - #3
(13) 27. Philadelphia 76ers - #23
(14) 28. New York Knickerbockers - #24
(15) 29. New Jersey Nets - #20

Despite all the losses piling up lately, the Raptors are still in a decent position. We've played the 4th toughest schedule in the NBA, and the bottom half of the playoffs seedings in the Eastern Conference is still pretty weak.

I think this is what I mean it takes a team to win. That's why I wouldn't judge the Raps until Evans come back.

[The Notic]

Bobcats at 5!

[supersub15]

Bobcats at 5!

They're rolling offensively now, and they're the #1 defensive team in the entire league. They should be in the playoffs. That trade was golden.

[Fairview4Life]

Bobcats at 5!

They're rolling offensively now, and they're the #1 defensive team in the entire league. They should be in the playoffs. That trade was golden.

It's crazy that someone was able to predict that trade and it's consequences before the season even began.

[supersub15]

It's crazy that someone was able to predict that trade and it's consequences before the season even began.

Who? You?

[Fairview4Life]

It's crazy that someone was able to predict that trade and it's consequences before the season even began.

Who? You?

No, The Notic, who keeps reminding us about the mighty Bobcats.

[The Notic]

Bow down before their greatness, Un-Fairview.

[Fairview4Life]

Bow down before their greatness, Un-Fairview.

I am good sir, I am.

[Mustard_Tiger]

Bobcats at 5!

They're rolling offensively now, and they're the #1 defensive team in the entire league. They should be in the playoffs. That trade was golden.

Weren't you the one that called Stephen Jackson overrated? Didn't you say his effect on a basketball team was minimal?

When Steve Jack is motivated, he's a very good player in this league.