We're going to be awful in 2024

bkohler · Post #21 » by **bkohler** » Mon Feb 27, 2023 11:50 pm

Lauri's health is hard to gauge because he's had fluke injuries: Ankle Sprains, Right Hip stress fractures, Oblique strain, and Shoulder issues. He's definitely not Zion, but he's not exactly Cal Ripken, either.

I hope that he can maintain this level of play with the wear and tear that comes with it. But so far, the numbers don't lie, he's only played 75% of the games he's been eligible to play in. I think you have to consider that a factor when projecting forward.

FranchisePlayer · Post #22 » by **FranchisePlayer** » Tue Feb 28, 2023 7:33 pm

bkohler wrote:Lauri's health is hard to gauge because he's had fluke injuries: Ankle Sprains, Right Hip stress fractures, Oblique strain, and Shoulder issues. He's definitely not Zion, but he's not exactly Cal Ripken, either.

I hope that he can maintain this level of play with the wear and tear that comes with it. But so far, the numbers don't lie, he's only played 75% of the games he's been eligible to play in. I think you have to consider that a factor when projecting forward.

"You're as good as you last game". I'd concentrate more on this season than what happened a few years ago.

Lauri's played 90% of the games this season and with career high MP. If you really want to compare him:

He's played more than guys like Davis, Doncic, Giannis, Bron, Towns, Wiggins, Gobert, Beal, George, and even Mitchell for that matter (and I don't think the list ends there, Jokic?). Zion is a complete wreck next to those guys.

I really do think the issues Jazz will face are way outside of worrying about the Finnisher's health. Among star players he currently seems to be elite even in that respect.

bkohler · Post #23 » by **bkohler** » Tue Feb 28, 2023 9:04 pm

FranchisePlayer wrote:
bkohler wrote:Lauri's health is hard to gauge because he's had fluke injuries: Ankle Sprains, Right Hip stress fractures, Oblique strain, and Shoulder issues. He's definitely not Zion, but he's not exactly Cal Ripken, either.

I hope that he can maintain this level of play with the wear and tear that comes with it. But so far, the numbers don't lie, he's only played 75% of the games he's been eligible to play in. I think you have to consider that a factor when projecting forward.

"You're as good as you last game". I'd concentrate more on this season than what happened a few years ago.

Lauri's played 90% of the games this season and with career high MP. If you really want to compare him:

He's played more than guys like Davis, Doncic, Giannis, Bron, Towns, Wiggins, Gobert, Beal, George, and even Mitchell for that matter (and I don't think the list ends there, Jokic?). Zion is a complete wreck next to those guys.

I really do think the issues Jazz will face are way outside of worrying about the Finnisher's health. Among star players he currently seems to be elite even in that respect.

I'm not overly worried but he is such a hinge point that any sustained time missed drastically changes the outlook win/loss-wise. Hence why I think it should be factored into projecting next season.

Jiipee84 · Post #24 » by **Jiipee84** » Wed Mar 1, 2023 4:49 am

bkohler wrote:Lauri's health is hard to gauge because he's had fluke injuries: Ankle Sprains, Right Hip stress fractures, Oblique strain, and Shoulder issues. He's definitely not Zion, but he's not exactly Cal Ripken, either.

I hope that he can maintain this level of play with the wear and tear that comes with it. But so far, the numbers don't lie, he's only played 75% of the games he's been eligible to play in. I think you have to consider that a factor when projecting forward.

Bulls beer league level player development and medical staffs
didn't do much favors for Lauri in those 4 years what he spent in Chicago.
So it is kinda stupid to think that Lauri is injury prone 4 years ago was 4 years go and now is now.
Lauri has fixed a lot of his summer workouts etc and you can see results now if you're not totally blind.

bkohler · Post #25 » by **bkohler** » Sat Jul 1, 2023 1:11 pm

Unless a major trade happens I stand by my thoughts in this thread. We’re going to reallly struggle to close games without a primary play maker.

It’ll also be hard to replicate the good vibes of last years team with so many duplicative parts.

AGE1207 · Post #26 » by **AGE1207** » Sat Jul 1, 2023 1:43 pm

There are some holes in our selection but I see a pretty big upside instead.

Objectively looking at the situation, we now have Rudy Gay out and John Collins in. And we have a couple of rookies on board, who may or may not contribute quickly.

Yes, we will probably miss some veteran leadership at PG to close out games (ie.Mike Conley) but barring injuries, there’s no reason to think we will now be awful all of a sudden. In fact, if we can repeat our player development rate of last season, we may actually be even better.

Post #27 » by **Inigo Montoya** » Sat Jul 1, 2023 1:59 pm

This is probably a 42-45 win team.

AingesBurner · Post #28 » by **AingesBurner** » Sat Jul 1, 2023 3:28 pm

Inigo Montoya wrote:This is probably a 42-45 win team.

Yep, 7th or 8th seed.

bkohler · Post #29 » by **bkohler** » Sat Jul 1, 2023 6:18 pm

Inigo Montoya wrote:This is probably a 42-45 win team.

I think it’s more likely a team with a ceiling of 36-38 wins. Partly because of the roster construction, but also because of how good the west is.

What team, besides maybe Portland, is tanking next year? SAS maybe? The Jazz will be in a cluster of teams around the play-in level and any missed time or regression from Lauri could drop them precipitously.

Post #30 » by **Inigo Montoya** » Sat Jul 1, 2023 6:34 pm

bkohler wrote:
Inigo Montoya wrote:This is probably a 42-45 win team.

I think it’s more likely a team with a ceiling of 36-38 wins. Partly because of the roster construction, but also because of how good the west is.

What team, besides maybe Portland, is tanking next year? SAS maybe? The Jazz will be in a cluster of teams around the play-in level and any missed time or regression from Lauri could drop them precipitously.

Sounds like a win-win to me.

AingesBurner · Post #31 » by **AingesBurner** » Sat Jul 1, 2023 8:01 pm

Inigo Montoya wrote:
bkohler wrote:
Inigo Montoya wrote:This is probably a 42-45 win team.

I think it’s more likely a team with a ceiling of 36-38 wins. Partly because of the roster construction, but also because of how good the west is.

What team, besides maybe Portland, is tanking next year? SAS maybe? The Jazz will be in a cluster of teams around the play-in level and any missed time or regression from Lauri could drop them precipitously.

Sounds like a win-win to me.

If Utah has the 10-11 pick and OKC has the 14-15 pick. We could offer a swap and get our pick rights back. I’m okay with it. Gives us more ammo for Luka.

babyjax13 · Post #32 » by **babyjax13** » Sun Jul 2, 2023 5:32 am

I think our goal is to convey the pick to OKC this year and evaluate what we have with some of the 'young but not super young' guys (Sexton, THT, Lauri, Collins). 2024 has a terrible looking incoming class, it seems like a bad year to have a high pick. In the 2024 offseason we will make bigger moves as we decide who to build around.

bkohler · Post #33 » by **bkohler** » Sun Jul 2, 2023 1:55 pm

Agreed that is the goal, but I worry about us slipping into the top ten, keeping the puck and then potentially losing the pick in 25/26 which are much better drafts.

Feels like this team still isn’t sure what it wants to be and with a west that got better nearly everywhere hard to see where we gain any ground from last year.

mark53 · Post #34 » by **mark53** » Sun Jul 2, 2023 4:37 pm

I don't think we are trying to be anything but a team acquiring assets and tradable contracts. I think that's it. When the time comes Danny will pull something large off.

mudsak · Post #35 » by **mudsak** » Mon Jul 3, 2023 1:14 am

AGE1207 wrote:There are some holes in our selection but I see a pretty big upside instead.

Objectively looking at the situation, we now have Rudy Gay out and John Collins in. And we have a couple of rookies on board, who may or may not contribute quickly.

Yes, we will probably miss some veteran leadership at PG to close out games (ie.Mike Conley) but barring injuries, there’s no reason to think we will now be awful all of a sudden. In fact, if we can repeat our player development rate of last season, we may actually be even better.

yeah... I'm with you here. We actually had to try pretty hard to lose games down the stretch last season. Lauri/Kessler were so impactful it would just make it difficult to lose games if both of them played. Now we've got Collins instead of Rudy Gay... I don't care how bad Collins might be... he'll be infinitely better than Gay was. Ochai will probably keep improving. A few rookies who can all shoot... always a chance at least one of them catches on to their game quickly. PG is the weak-link for this team, but they'll definitely compete every night. If Lauri/Kessler play at their same level as last year the team will be winning some games.

SoCalJazzFan · Post #36 » by **SoCalJazzFan** » Mon Jul 3, 2023 1:54 am

I think something that people are overlooking is that the Jazz could be better and only a play in playoff team or even miss out on the playoffs. For example, the Rockets are a much different, better team. Teams aren’t tanking for the generational talent this year and all teams have to spend 90% of the cap, so all the bottom dwellers are going to be better this year than they were last year.

bkohler · Post #37 » by **bkohler** » Mon Jul 3, 2023 1:48 pm

SoCalJazzFan wrote:I think something that people are overlooking is that the Jazz could be better and only a play in playoff team or even miss out on the playoffs. For example, the Rockets are a much different, better team. Teams aren’t tanking for the generational talent this year and all teams have to spend 90% of the cap, so all the bottom dwellers are going to be better this year than they were last year.

This!

The Jazz struggled to lose last year because half the league didn’t want to win. They also caught people by surprise and had a roster that made way more sense last year.

Catchall · Post #38 » by **Catchall** » Sat Jul 8, 2023 11:09 pm

Kessler / Olynyk
Collins / Hendricks
Markkanen / Fontecchio / Sensabaugh
Clarkson/ Agbaji
Sexton / THT / George

This team should win 40 - 45 games. There should be a lot of congestion among in the 5 - 10 seeds again. I think the Jazz are in that mix. The only teams that are definitively better than the Jazz are the Nuggets, Suns, Pels (with Zion playing), Memphis, and I'll say Twolves. Kings, Lakers, Clippers, Warriors, Mavericks and Thunder could be bunched up within a few games of one another.

SoCalJazzFan · Post #39 » by **SoCalJazzFan** » Sun Jul 9, 2023 12:17 am

Catchall wrote:Kessler / Olynyk
Collins / Hendricks
Markkanen / Fontecchio / Sensabaugh
Clarkson/ Agbaji
Sexton / THT / George

This team should win 40 - 45 games. There should be a lot of congestion among in the 5 - 10 seeds again. I think the Jazz are in that mix. The only teams that are definitively better than the Jazz are the Nuggets, Suns, Pels (with Zion playing), Memphis, and I'll say Twolves. Kings, Lakers, Clippers, Warriors, Mavericks and Thunder could be bunched up within a few games of one another.

You just mentioned 11 teams, LOL. Jazz could be a solid playoff team, barely in the playoffs or even just out of the playoffs this year.

Also, I wonder where the rookies are going to get their burn.
Kessler/Reed/
Collins/KO/Hendricks/Samanic
Markk/THT/ Sensabaugh or Fontecchio
Agbaji/Clarkson/
Sexton/Dunn/KG

MalonesElbows · Post #40 » by **MalonesElbows** » Thu Jul 13, 2023 1:52 pm

I'm not expecting much. The Jazz have no absolutely no talent or athleticism in the 6'6" to 6'8" range, critical for defending the elite wings of the NBA. Conley is gone and was instrumental into getting Utah off to a good start next year. The Jazz rookies might be promising, but outside of superstars, rookies do not contribute to winning in the NBA. 38 wins looks optimistic.