Jazz are #1

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Jazz are #1  

Post#1 » by DFO » Tue Jan 26, 2010 5:41 pm

For what its worth ESPN's John Hollinger's statistical formulas rate the Jazz as the best team in the entire NBA.

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings

The team-oriented system that generates a ton of assists is beneficial in his scoring system.

How they lost to the freakin Timberwolves twice is a mystery.
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Re: Jazz are #1  

Post#2 » by DelaneyRudd » Tue Jan 26, 2010 5:43 pm

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Re: Jazz are #1  

Post#3 » by kebutah » Tue Jan 26, 2010 6:06 pm

The only ranking that matters is the one at the end of the season (playoffs).
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Re: Jazz are #1  

Post#4 » by Matt007b » Tue Jan 26, 2010 6:25 pm

what a change around...

we were losing to the worst teams in the NBA and now with a couple of lineup changes and AK shooting the ball well now we're talking playoffs and a high draft pick.
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Re: Jazz are #1  

Post#5 » by erudite23 » Tue Jan 26, 2010 6:42 pm

Well, let's be real here. His system is based largely around margin of victory, strength of schedule, and home/road splits with heavy weighting towards the most recent 25% of each team's schedule. So, basically, the fact that the Jazz (in their last 11 games) are 8-3, with an average margin of victory of 11+ against a SOS of .550 (3rd highest in the league over that time) is weighting things in their favor. This Jazz team has been easily the best team in the league over the last 2-3 weeks, and that is why they are coming in just ahead of the Cavs and Lakers.
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Re: Jazz are #1  

Post#6 » by StocktonShorts » Tue Jan 26, 2010 7:35 pm

Anyone remember the last time the Jazz were No. 1 in Hollinger's rankings?
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Re: Jazz are #1  

Post#7 » by DelaneyRudd » Tue Jan 26, 2010 7:58 pm

Uhhh.... they started to do terribly afterward?
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Re: Jazz are #1  

Post#8 » by StocktonShorts » Tue Jan 26, 2010 8:14 pm

DelaneyRudd wrote:Uhhh.... they started to do terribly afterward?


No.. no.. it was an actual question. When were they last No. 1?
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Re: Jazz are #1  

Post#9 » by tylero87 » Tue Jan 26, 2010 8:44 pm

Is Utah really NBA's best team?
By John Hollinger
ESPN.com


I know what you're all thinking: Utah?

Utah?!

OK, Utah.

The Jazz are No. 1 in the Power Rankings, ahead of the mighty Cavs and Lakers, after rallying from 17 down to beat Phoenix on Monday night -- their latest high-profile win in a torrid 10-game stretch. The Jazz are 8-2 in their past 10 games, including six victories against teams with winning records, and several of the wins were impressive: They beat Memphis by 23 without Deron Williams, topped Miami by 29 and dumped Dallas by 18 on the road. They also, of course, had that dramatic nationally televised win over Cleveland, when little-known Sundiata Gaines hit a game-winning 3 at the buzzer.

Still, the Jazz are 26-18 overall, while the Lakers and Cavs are seven and eight games ahead of them in the standings at 33-11 and 35-11, respectively. Are we really saying that the Jazz are better than those two?

Let me offer a brief defense of the Jazz before I give the final answer:

1. The records lie
Utah is 26-18, but has the scoring margin of a team that should be 30-14. The Jazz haven't been fortunate in close games (5-8 in games decided by five points or fewer) but have been in nearly every other contest. Utah's only two blowout losses have come in the infamous 101-77 loss to the Lakers in which they scored only six points in the fourth quarter, and a 96-83 loss to Atlanta in which they pulled the starters when trailing by 27 in the middle of the third quarter.

As a result, the standings don't reflect Utah's true strength. Most notably, the Jazz trail Dallas by three games in the standings despite a much better scoring margin.

2. Their schedule has been difficult
The Jazz have played more home games than road games, something they have in common with several West rivals at this point (among the conference's upper crust, only the Mavs have played more on the road than at home). That may make it seem like the tough part of their schedule is still to come. In truth, the Jazz just finished the tough part and they slapped it around.

Utah opponents have a .521 winning percentage when not playing the Jazz; only Houston, Miami and Toronto have faced tougher slates thus far. Cleveland opponents are at .497 (19th), and the Lakers, at .512 (seventh), aren't too far behind Utah. But L.A. has had even more home cookin' than the Jazz, having played 26 home games and only 18 away from Staples Center.

Looking ahead, the Jazz should be able to make up some of the ground in the standings, as Utah faces only one elite team on the road the rest of the season (the Lakers). The next-best team the Jazz play away from home is Oklahoma City, with the rest coming against losing teams or fringe playoff contenders.

3. They have held up against the big guns
In addition to their well-chronicled 4-0 season sweep of the Spurs and the aforementioned win over Cleveland, the Jazz nearly beat the Cavs on the road without Williams on Nov. 14 (a 107-103 loss in Cleveland) and split the season series with both Orlando and the Lakers (with two more games against L.A. still to come). It's a small sample and I don't put a lot of weight on it, but since a lot of people want to compare how heavyweights did against one another, it's worth noting that the Jazz have held their own in this department.

4. Recent history
OK, this is the crux of the issue. The most recent 25 percent of games played are weighed most heavily by the Power Rankings, and that's only 11 games at this point in the season. It may not seem like it because they aren't on a huge winning streak -- they're 8-3 in their past 11 games -- but the Jazz have been far and away the best team in the league in that span.

Against the fourth-most-difficult schedule, the Jazz's average scoring margin over their past 11 games is plus-11.3 -- nobody else is better than plus-7.0. Even if you take away the scrimmage against the lowly Nets on Jan. 23 they're plus-9.1, and that's against opponents with an average winning percentage near .600; no other team has faced opposition better than .562 in the same stretch. Use any formula you wish, mutilate the calculation as badly as you want, and you'll still reach the same conclusion: The Jazz have been the league's best team over the most recent quarter of the schedule.

5. It's a compressed league
I keep getting back to this because it's true ... and because it's a huge point. The Lakers and Cavs may have the two best records, but the margin between those two and the pack has never been as large as the distance last season between the top four teams and everybody else.

We perceive the Lakers and Cavs as miles ahead of the field, but in reality that hasn't been true. L.A. and Cleveland have scoring margins of 61-win teams, which is excellent but hardly dominant. Factor in the schedules, and the Playoff Odds project the Lakers and Cavs to finish with 57 and 60 wins, respectively.

Those are the two best projected records in the league, and nobody else projects to win more than 53 games. If that holds up, it would be the first time since 2002-03 that no team won more than 60 games, the first time since 2001-02 that the league didn't have multiple 60-game winners and the first time since 1987-88 (when it was a 23-team league) that there weren't at least three 55-game winners.

We're seeing that reflected in the Power Rankings. The Jazz, Cavs and Lakers all have ratings in the 106 range -- which is good, but in a normal year, it would not be leading the league. Nine teams behind them clump together with ratings between 102.3 and 104.8, and their positions shift almost daily. A second group of seven hopefuls between 100.0 and 101.5 stands in a similar herd.

Compaction is an important concept to remember when eyeing the Lakers, Cavs and Jazz as well. Remember, the number in the second column of the Rankings (overall record) is more important than the number in the first column (rating). Utah's lead over the other two is small enough in the first column (0.57 over L.A., 0.70 over Cleveland) that a bad outing in Portland on Wednesday night could easily shift the Jazz back to third.

So ... on to the big question: Am I saying the Jazz are better than the Cavs and Lakers? Depends on what you mean by "better." The Jazz are playing better than anyone in basketball right now, and that's why they're No. 1 in the Power Rankings -- which, by nature, are designed to put a heavy weight on a team's current form. If the Jazz were to start a series against Cleveland or L.A. that tipped off Tuesday, I'd be seriously inclined to pick them.

But "better" in the global sense? I'm not going anywhere near there yet. The Jazz earned the top spot in the Rankings thanks to a lack of dominance from the league's elite and their own recent torrid play, and props to them for it. That said, I need to see them do it for more than a couple weeks before I anoint them as legitimate challengers to the throne.
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Re: Jazz are #1  

Post#10 » by Ming Kong! » Tue Jan 26, 2010 9:34 pm

This team has probably gotten a lot better due to injuries, and now that the squad is healthy, most of our players have played a pretty big role this season, experience that has served them very well, and now with the whole team at full strength and with Kirilenko's confidence apparently restored and back to starter worthy, well the team is pretty much legit. Ofcourse, how long the team can stay healthy, and focused is difficult to access. It does seam as if the team has finally learned how to play together, and they are looking a lot more like a veteran team than the third youngest team in the league. I really hope the Jazz can take it a step farther this year, ATLEAST 2nd round, that would make me atleast a little satisfied for this season. The Knicks are looking real bad of late too, hopefully both teams continue to move in the same direction. Imagine if we finish top 5-8 in the NBA, and we get a top 5-8 pick! #1 is even POSSIBLE. :-)

EDIT: Oh I forgot to say, I don't know how long the Jazz can keep this up, but when we play like this, we definitely can survive against any team in a 7 game series, except probably the Lakers. :-/
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Re: Jazz are #1  

Post#11 » by Ming Kong! » Tue Jan 26, 2010 9:40 pm

BTW check this out...

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Re: Jazz are #1  

Post#12 » by JDubJazz » Tue Jan 26, 2010 9:45 pm

I should've sent the screenshot of the Jazz getting #1, which I had happen for me today.
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Re: Jazz are #1  

Post#13 » by edfmx86 » Tue Jan 26, 2010 9:56 pm

mines on the knicks thread :D
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Re: Jazz are #1  

Post#14 » by Tapoona » Wed Jan 27, 2010 3:28 am

Did anyone notice Hollinger's NBA playoff odds? A week or so ago he had the Jazz as the 2 seed in the West, but now they are at the 3 seed. What caught my eye is the % odds that they will be the champs. Cleveland has the highest percentage chance at 18.7%. The next team has a 17.1% chance to be champs. Which team is that you ask? The Lakers, they're at 14.4%, the Nuggets, they're only at 6.5%, the Celtics, they're at 7.0%. The Jazz have the second best odds at being champs according to Hollinger's system. Them Jazz are playing good! (note: I'm not convinced they have the second best chance of winning the title)
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Re: Jazz are #1  

Post#15 » by erudite23 » Wed Jan 27, 2010 7:23 pm

HappyProle wrote:Anyone remember the last time the Jazz were No. 1 in Hollinger's rankings?



Well, they were #1 briefly at the beginning of last year, but they finished the 08 season as the #1 team in his rankings, and in his playoffs forecast he actually predicted a Jazz championship. That year we went on to play the Lakers, losing in 6 games. Of course, revisionist history has painted that as being an easy series, but the Jazz were every bit as good as that team and that series came down to some horrible blown calls late in a ultra-tight game 5. The Jazz were a legitimately dominant team from January to May that year, and even our own fans think that we were better in 06-07, just because a once-in-a-decade upset by GS allowed us to advance to the WCF instead of getting eliminated like we likely would have. We were probably neck and neck for being the 2nd contender in the NBA that year, behind only the eventual champ Boston, and were certainly no worse than 3rd.

But, hey, we didn't make it to the WCF so we couldn't have been as good as the year before, right?
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Re: Jazz are #1  

Post#16 » by HammerDunk » Wed Jan 27, 2010 8:50 pm

erudite23 wrote:
HappyProle wrote:Anyone remember the last time the Jazz were No. 1 in Hollinger's rankings?



Well, they were #1 briefly at the beginning of last year, but they finished the 08 season as the #1 team in his rankings, and in his playoffs forecast he actually predicted a Jazz championship. That year we went on to play the Lakers, losing in 6 games. Of course, revisionist history has painted that as being an easy series, but the Jazz were every bit as good as that team and that series came down to some horrible blown calls late in a ultra-tight game 5. The Jazz were a legitimately dominant team from January to May that year, and even our own fans think that we were better in 06-07, just because a once-in-a-decade upset by GS allowed us to advance to the WCF instead of getting eliminated like we likely would have. We were probably neck and neck for being the 2nd contender in the NBA that year, behind only the eventual champ Boston, and were certainly no worse than 3rd.

But, hey, we didn't make it to the WCF so we couldn't have been as good as the year before, right?

Interesting stuff.
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Re: Jazz are #1  

Post#17 » by StocktonShorts » Wed Jan 27, 2010 8:58 pm

erudite23 wrote:
HappyProle wrote:Anyone remember the last time the Jazz were No. 1 in Hollinger's rankings?



Well, they were #1 briefly at the beginning of last year, but they finished the 08 season as the #1 team in his rankings, and in his playoffs forecast he actually predicted a Jazz championship. That year we went on to play the Lakers, losing in 6 games. Of course, revisionist history has painted that as being an easy series, but the Jazz were every bit as good as that team and that series came down to some horrible blown calls late in a ultra-tight game 5. The Jazz were a legitimately dominant team from January to May that year, and even our own fans think that we were better in 06-07, just because a once-in-a-decade upset by GS allowed us to advance to the WCF instead of getting eliminated like we likely would have. We were probably neck and neck for being the 2nd contender in the NBA that year, behind only the eventual champ Boston, and were certainly no worse than 3rd.

But, hey, we didn't make it to the WCF so we couldn't have been as good as the year before, right?


YES. It has really annoyed me how the story of that season has be completely re-written. I agree that the 07-08 team was better than the 06-07 team.
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