Curry and the Web.com tour

[Gert42]

I think Curry's odds to make the cut are 5% or under. If he hits his average of 76 he'll be +8 and will miss the cut. I just would be shocked that he could have either one great round to make up for a round that would be over par, or two consistent enough rounds to make the cut.

I also don't understand the outrage either. It's a sponsor's exemption so I don't find it to be a big deal. It will bring more exposure to the Web.com Tour and will increase revenue for the tournament.

[LAL]

As a recently graduated D1 golfer and aspiring professional, I can assure the board that there is a 0% chance of Curry making the cut. Last year, it took -3 (137) to make the cut. 2 handicaps (which Curry claims he is) are not capable of playing at that level on the difficulty of course he will be competing on. According to the USGA exceptional tournament score probability sheet, Curry shooting -3 over two days would be over a 1:47,000,000 chance (conservatively).

Although it is good exposure for the event and charities the event sponsors, he is 99% likely to come in last place, with a 1% chance of coming in 2nd to last place. A 2 handicap is not even close to being a top high school level golfer. If you stuck an average level high school basketball player in the NBA G League, they would have no chance of being anything but the worst player in the league. Golf is no different and the Web.com is much more competitive and closer to the big leagues than the G League, comparatively.

Nothing against Curry though, it will be good for the event and he's a great guy.

[azcatz11]

As a recently graduated D1 golfer and aspiring professional, I can assure the board that there is a 0% chance of Curry making the cut. Last year, it took -3 (137) to make the cut. 2 handicaps (which Curry claims he is) are not capable of playing at that level on the difficulty of course he will be competing on. According to the USGA exceptional tournament score probability sheet, Curry shooting -3 over two days would be over a 1:47,000,000 chance (conservatively).

Although it is good exposure for the event and charities the event sponsors, he is 99% likely to come in last place, with a 1% chance of coming in 2nd to last place. A 2 handicap is not even close to being a top high school level golfer. If you stuck an average level high school basketball player in the NBA G League, they would have no chance of being anything but the worst player in the league. Golf is no different and the Web.com is much more competitive and closer to the big leagues than the G League, comparatively.

Nothing against Curry though, it will be good for the event and he's a great guy.

If he's a 3 handicap how is it a 47M chance he shoots -3 over two rounds? That sounds awfully high...

[LAL]

As a recently graduated D1 golfer and aspiring professional, I can assure the board that there is a 0% chance of Curry making the cut. Last year, it took -3 (137) to make the cut. 2 handicaps (which Curry claims he is) are not capable of playing at that level on the difficulty of course he will be competing on. According to the USGA exceptional tournament score probability sheet, Curry shooting -3 over two days would be over a 1:47,000,000 chance (conservatively).

Although it is good exposure for the event and charities the event sponsors, he is 99% likely to come in last place, with a 1% chance of coming in 2nd to last place. A 2 handicap is not even close to being a top high school level golfer. If you stuck an average level high school basketball player in the NBA G League, they would have no chance of being anything but the worst player in the league. Golf is no different and the Web.com is much more competitive and closer to the big leagues than the G League, comparatively.

Nothing against Curry though, it will be good for the event and he's a great guy.

If he's a 3 handicap how is it a 47M chance he shoots -3 over two rounds? That sounds awfully high...

Because 2 handicap doesn't mean he shoots 2 over par on average. It means that for the best 10 of his last 20 rounds, he has averaged a course rating differential of +2. Each course has a rating that roughly estimates the difficulty of the course and was created to account for the differences in course difficulty when comparing handicaps. The course the tournament is on is a par 70 for tournament play and has a course rating of 74.8. This means that if a 2 handicap played this course 20 times, his 10 best rounds would average roughly 2 over the course rating, which would equal about 77. Since 77 is about 2 over the course rating of 74.8, this score would be a differential of about +2.

Now, since Curry would have to shoot somewhere around 68-69 for two days to make the cut, these scores, compared to the course rating, would be about -7 and -6 (74.8 - 68 and 69). The USGA publishes a chart of what the odds of a golfer shooting an exceptionally low score, relative to their handicap, are (to combat sandbagging in handicapped competitions). This chart is here http://www.popeofslope.com/sandbagging/odds.html. Since Curry is a 2 handicap, the odds of him shooting a score 6 below the course rating in a tournament competition is 1:790 and the odds of him shooting 7 below the course rating is 1:2349.

Because Web.com tournaments are set up more difficult than in regular play (which is when the course rating is taken), the course is more likely to be actually playing like a 76 or 77 rated course. This would conservatively make the differentials of rounds of 68 and 69 in the -7 or -8 range. The odds of a 2 handicap shooting 7 and 8 below the course rating is calculated as 1:2349 and 1:20111, respectively. Multiply those together for the two days in a row he would have to shoot those scores, and you get over 1:47,000,000 odds, on the conservative end.

The handicap system is much more complex than most realize and this information is pretty overkill, but I think it helps provides context for just how good professionals are. Last year the winner shot -30. This is an average of 62.5 per day, or about 12 below the course rating of 74.8. The odds of Curry, as a 2 handicap, shooting 12 below the course rating, even for 1 day, is so astronomically low it is not even on the referenced chart.

It's just incredibly unlikely for Curry to beat even a single professional in this event, and there is nothing wrong with that. Like I said above, a 2 handicap would be pretty average in the high school aged competitive scene. Sticking that level player in a tournament where the players are on average just slightly worse than the PGA Tour, is not going to end well. But all that is fine really, he is not in the event for competitive purposes.

[12footrim]

Curry is +1 through 3 holes so far. Bogeyed the first, probably to be expected. Seems to be settled down.

His playing partner is in the top 200 in the world and he is tied with him so far.

[12footrim]

It's just incredibly unlikely for Curry to beat even a single professional in this event, and there is nothing wrong with that.

I think it's more likely he doesn't finish last. Someone always blows up. Good chance even if it's him there is still someone worse on the course having a day of it with a 150 something or whatever field this is.

[clyde21]

Curry is tied for 67th right now.

[12footrim]

Curry is tied for 67th right now.

Yeah, he missed a 4 foot put to save par on that last hole. That's the kind of shots he needs to capitalize on.

I read he shot a 68 at whatever the last pro am he played in was. He should be in pretty good form.

[Goudelock]

A few weeks ago, I was helping film a music video at a sports bar, and on the giant projector screen the tour was being shown. Tony Romo and some other old retired guys were golfing. I figured it must've been some sort of special tournament for retired athletes. Then I saw Curry and was like ".............so my Lakers have a chance now!"

And that's my random Web.com tour story.

[12footrim]

A few weeks ago, I was helping film a music video at a sports bar, and on the giant projector screen the tour was being shown. Tony Romo and some other old retired guys were golfing. I figured it must've been some sort of special tournament for retired athletes. Then I saw Curry and was like ".............so my Lakers have a chance now!"

And that's my random Web.com tour story.

I think you just saw some celebrity pro am event on TV not a web.com event.

Web.com is the 3rd best professional tour in the world or close to it with the Japaneses tour. Curry is paired with with a top 200 player in the world. There are legit world class players in this field many that have made cuts in majors or even finished in the top 10 and been on the PGA or European tour and won events on there. Serious money as well. I think the winner gets like 115k.

Here is the world rankings of the field

http://www.owgr.com/en/Events/EventResult.aspx?eventid=6702

Eric Compton and DJ Trahan are down around 1000 in the world and have both won on the PGA tour and have top 4 finishes at the US Open for example.

[12footrim]

+2 through 9 holes

Got his first birdie

[LAL]

It's just incredibly unlikely for Curry to beat even a single professional in this event, and there is nothing wrong with that.

I think it's more likely he doesn't finish last. Someone always blows up. Good chance even if it's him there is still someone worse on the course having a day of it with a 150 something or whatever field this is.

I must admit, through 11 holes he is doing better than I expected. Lots of golf left but he is playing respectable golf for his ability level so far. If he can avoid the blowup holes he may beat a couple players.

[LakersLegacy]

LOL his first shot he made a bucket!!! You can't make this stuff up. The pressure got to him some and he hooked it. It landed IN THE CUP HOLDER OF A GOLF CART!!!

Steph can't stop help but make buckets. It's what he does

[12footrim]

It's just incredibly unlikely for Curry to beat even a single professional in this event, and there is nothing wrong with that.

I think it's more likely he doesn't finish last. Someone always blows up. Good chance even if it's him there is still someone worse on the course having a day of it with a 150 something or whatever field this is.

I must admit, through 11 holes he is doing better than I expected. Lots of golf left but he is playing respectable golf for his ability level so far. If he can avoid the blowup holes he may beat a couple players.

I thought he was someone that could surprise particularly with his putting and chipping around the green and even potentially get a hot putter. He's probably been more respectable than even I expected as well and it is his short game that is saving him. Only 36% Greens in regulation but had only 13 putts through 9 holes.

Best shooter in the game ever has to have some elite hand / eye coordination and touch. Putting and chipping is kind of the same talents and feel and touch that shooting 30 foot basketball shots in a way, that's why I thought he might be able to get a hot putter.

[ProfessorJM]

Not familiar with Curry's game at all, but I would guess a handicap of 2 would likely be much higher than plus 2 on a tougher course. I am a pretty good golfer and can shoot at my uncle's course (he lives in a retirement community) straight par or even barely under sometimes, but it's a shorter course due to lots of older golfers there with one par 4 even reachable in one for me. At a regular fairly easy course, I range from 74-82 pretty consistently, but on a very tough course out here, it's always 78+. Best score 76, worst over 90 so I think Curry would have almost no chance competing with pros unless he is a lot better than I realize.

[ProfessorJM]

LOL his first shot he made a bucket!!! You can't make this stuff up. The pressure got to him some and he hooked it. It landed IN THE CUP HOLDER OF A GOLF CART!!!

Steph can't stop help but make buckets. It's what he does

Lol, that's awesome.

[12footrim]

.

He shot 4 over today. A very solid respectable debut. He probably comes out and is more comfortable tomorrow as well having got most of the jittery 1st day out of the way.

265 yards off the tee, but did a lot of his damage putting. 3 birds I believe including a 26 foot putt.

He had a better day than Casey Wittenberg who is the 2012 Web.com Player of the year and who was on the PGA tour and had some huge finishes in the biggest tournaments

T10 US Open
T13 Masters
T8 Players

A lot of top 50 players can't sport finishes that high in those tournys. He isn't some washed up senior either. He is 32 years old and he beat him by 2 strokes. That's kind of a big deal. That was a guy that was a legit blue chipper finished #2 in the US Amateur in 2003.

2 shots better than Frank Licklitter as well who was once a top 50 player in the world.