Moderator: Doctor MJ
I wonder how your net ratings of your shot charts would look if you used this method.
lorak wrote:Doctor MJ wrote:-Malone clearly beating Stockton is really worth noting. As I've been saying, I wanted to see if Stockton's +/- trend really continued back through the S & M prime. Not looking likely.
Keep in mind it's just raw +/-. Malone also beats Stockton in raw +/- in 1997, 1998 or 1999, but RAPM tells quite different story.
ElGee wrote:lorak wrote:Doctor MJ wrote:-Malone clearly beating Stockton is really worth noting. As I've been saying, I wanted to see if Stockton's +/- trend really continued back through the S & M prime. Not looking likely.
Keep in mind it's just raw +/-. Malone also beats Stockton in raw +/- in 1997, 1998 or 1999, but RAPM tells quite different story.
Wait, it does? What data do you have?
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lorak wrote:Doctor MJ wrote:-Malone clearly beating Stockton is really worth noting. As I've been saying, I wanted to see if Stockton's +/- trend really continued back through the S & M prime. Not looking likely.
Keep in mind it's just raw +/-. Malone also beats Stockton in raw +/- in 1997, 1998 or 1999, but RAPM tells quite different story.
colts18 wrote:We now have 8 years of plus/minus data for Stockton and Malone (94, 97-03). Here is what their total plus/minus are for that span
Stockton +3306 Plus/Minus
+8.4 on court per 48 minutes
-1.5 off court per 48 minutes
+9.9 Net +/- per 48 minutes
Malone +3264 Plus/Minus
+6.8 on court per 48 minutes
-2.2 off court per 48 minutes
+8.9 Net +/- per 48 minutes
Stockton has the slight advantage based on that though Malone did play 4200+ more minutes (525 MP per season) than Stockton in that span.
fpliii wrote:colts18 wrote:We now have 8 years of plus/minus data for Stockton and Malone (94, 97-03). Here is what their total plus/minus are for that span
Stockton +3306 Plus/Minus
+8.4 on court per 48 minutes
-1.5 off court per 48 minutes
+9.9 Net +/- per 48 minutes
Malone +3264 Plus/Minus
+6.8 on court per 48 minutes
-2.2 off court per 48 minutes
+8.9 Net +/- per 48 minutes
Stockton has the slight advantage based on that though Malone did play 4200+ more minutes (525 MP per season) than Stockton in that span.
Stockton has been in the conversation a bit recently. Hopefully I can get ahold of the 94-95 and 95-96 data before his first runoff (probably coming up soon).
colts18 wrote:fpliii wrote:colts18 wrote:We now have 8 years of plus/minus data for Stockton and Malone (94, 97-03). Here is what their total plus/minus are for that span
Stockton +3306 Plus/Minus
+8.4 on court per 48 minutes
-1.5 off court per 48 minutes
+9.9 Net +/- per 48 minutes
Malone +3264 Plus/Minus
+6.8 on court per 48 minutes
-2.2 off court per 48 minutes
+8.9 Net +/- per 48 minutes
Stockton has the slight advantage based on that though Malone did play 4200+ more minutes (525 MP per season) than Stockton in that span.
Stockton has been in the conversation a bit recently. Hopefully I can get ahold of the 94-95 and 95-96 data before his first runoff (probably coming up soon).
Have you tried emailing Harvey Pollack? He might have some copies of his book left. Based on a google search, I haven't found a copy yet of those two books.
Double Clutch wrote:Hey fpliii, I found some information that might interest you in regards to the 1995 and 1996 books. Not sure if you can directly contact the author of these articles and in some cases, the articles don't have a listed author for some odd reason but they all refer to those books in one way or the other.
Excerpt below that contains Seattle's +/- data midway into the 1994-95 season (Feb 27, 1995 to be exact). Not sure if this data was collected from Pollack or whether a Seattle Times writer was keeping track of it on his own or perhaps some of the coaching staff/scouts were responsible for it.Spoiler:
No author for this article but there's a few statistical leaders listed for the 1995-96 season taken from Pollack's yearbook. No +/- data but categories such as most dunks, most traveling violations, etc.Spoiler:
George Karl talking about Nate McMillan's plus-minus early in the 1994-95 season. Once again, not sure who was keeping track of the data.Spoiler:
A few other references to +/- data by a couple of Seattle Times writers.Spoiler:
fpliii wrote:Spoke to Harvey Pollack today, and ordered the 95-96 and 96-97 yearbooks (with data from 94-95 and 95-96). I'll upload the new scans when the books arrive.
colts18 wrote:fpliii wrote:Spoke to Harvey Pollack today, and ordered the 95-96 and 96-97 yearbooks (with data from 94-95 and 95-96). I'll upload the new scans when the books arrive.
Awesome news. How did the chat go?
I wouldn't be surprised if David Robinson beats out Michael Jordan in 96 plus/minus. I'm most excited about the 96 seasons. I want to see how MJ, Pippen, Rodman, DRob, and Shaq do in plus/minus.
fpliii wrote:colts18 wrote:fpliii wrote:Spoke to Harvey Pollack today, and ordered the 95-96 and 96-97 yearbooks (with data from 94-95 and 95-96). I'll upload the new scans when the books arrive.
Awesome news. How did the chat go?
I wouldn't be surprised if David Robinson beats out Michael Jordan in 96 plus/minus. I'm most excited about the 96 seasons. I want to see how MJ, Pippen, Rodman, DRob, and Shaq do in plus/minus.
Pretty good. Turns out that prior to Kennedy becoming commissioner, a lot of things were informal disorganized. A few years into his tenure (Pollack said 1968), a couple key changes were made:
• teams held onto box scores for both home and away games (beforehand, the only copy was held by home teams; he noted that teams didn't always hold onto the individual box scores, and it was common to say, only maintain records of each player's totals against certain opponents)
• all teams had to publish media guides
At some point later, but prior to 79-80 (since Pollack decided to keep track of four-point plays starting that year, he noted), teams began to maintain play-by-plays. It seems from speaking with him that not every team did at the time, though by the mid-80s they did (starting with 87-88 at which point he semi-retired as PR director and took on a less demanding position with the organization time-wise, he and his team went through the physical play-by-plays for the dunks numbers, and calculated plus/minus for the Sixers; they also calculated stats for some players like average FG distance, which were great mentions on broadcasts).
The takeaway being that the league play-by-play goes back at least 10 years prior to the first digitalized records, though likely not back to the beginning of the league. I asked him if he still had copies of the old play-by-plays, and he said he's not sure if they're still in storage, but he's not very confident that they're still around (though other teams might have their own; Pollack noted that he had to request play-by-plays for other teams directly from the league office before they were available online). So the data could still be out there somewhere, in some form, from 87-88 through 95-96.
fpliii wrote:Pretty good. Turns out that prior to Kennedy becoming commissioner, a lot of things were informal disorganized. A few years into his tenure (Pollack said 1968), a couple key changes were made:
• teams held onto box scores for both home and away games (beforehand, the only copy was held by home teams; he noted that teams didn't always hold onto the individual box scores, and it was common to say, only maintain records of each player's totals against certain opponents)
• all teams had to publish media guides
At some point later, but prior to 79-80 (since Pollack decided to keep track of four-point plays starting that year, he noted), teams began to maintain play-by-plays. It seems from speaking with him that not every team did at the time, though by the mid-80s they did (starting with 87-88 at which point he semi-retired as PR director and took on a less demanding position with the organization time-wise, he and his team went through the physical play-by-plays for the dunks numbers, and calculated plus/minus for the Sixers; they also calculated stats for some players like average FG distance, which were great mentions on broadcasts).
The takeaway being that the league play-by-play goes back at least 10 years prior to the first digitalized records, though likely not back to the beginning of the league. I asked him if he still had copies of the old play-by-plays, and he said he's not sure if they're still in storage, but he's not very confident that they're still around (though other teams might have their own; Pollack noted that he had to request play-by-plays for other teams directly from the league office before they were available online). So the data could still be out there somewhere, in some form, from 87-88 through 95-96.
RebelWithACause wrote:fpliii wrote:colts18 wrote:Awesome news. How did the chat go?
I wouldn't be surprised if David Robinson beats out Michael Jordan in 96 plus/minus. I'm most excited about the 96 seasons. I want to see how MJ, Pippen, Rodman, DRob, and Shaq do in plus/minus.
Pretty good. Turns out that prior to Kennedy becoming commissioner, a lot of things were informal disorganized. A few years into his tenure (Pollack said 1968), a couple key changes were made:
• teams held onto box scores for both home and away games (beforehand, the only copy was held by home teams; he noted that teams didn't always hold onto the individual box scores, and it was common to say, only maintain records of each player's totals against certain opponents)
• all teams had to publish media guides
At some point later, but prior to 79-80 (since Pollack decided to keep track of four-point plays starting that year, he noted), teams began to maintain play-by-plays. It seems from speaking with him that not every team did at the time, though by the mid-80s they did (starting with 87-88 at which point he semi-retired as PR director and took on a less demanding position with the organization time-wise, he and his team went through the physical play-by-plays for the dunks numbers, and calculated plus/minus for the Sixers; they also calculated stats for some players like average FG distance, which were great mentions on broadcasts).
The takeaway being that the league play-by-play goes back at least 10 years prior to the first digitalized records, though likely not back to the beginning of the league. I asked him if he still had copies of the old play-by-plays, and he said he's not sure if they're still in storage, but he's not very confident that they're still around (though other teams might have their own; Pollack noted that he had to request play-by-plays for other teams directly from the league office before they were available online). So the data could still be out there somewhere, in some form, from 87-88 through 95-96.
Amazing fpliii!
Really hope we can get that data from somewhere to calculate the RAPM of the 80s and 90s.
Who do you plan to contact now?
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