2024 Draft Thread - Part II

[dobrojim]

Isn't youth potentially a 2 edged sword though?
You need to be patient with younger players and work harder at developing them
but you could be using part of the 4 year guaranteed window you have them for
waiting for them to figure it out. There's no guarantee you will have them beyond 4 years.

Players like Knecht and Kolek may not get much better physically, but they are probably
better positioned, mentally and by experience, to contribute sooner. Like Jaquez was.

That said, I'm not arguing that you shouldn't, in general, consider youth to be a strength
when looking at a prospect but just noting that there could be a drawback.

[Endless Loop]

The biggest reason I like Castle is because of the comments about his great work ethic.

But I'm not buying him as a great shooter just based on a 3 point drill at the combine-
* He shot terribly during real games in real conditions- 27%. Granted, it was a sample size of 75 shots, but still... There's a massive difference between shooting in practice and shooting in front of defenders and fans. Almost not even the same thing.
* Yeah, he was on a great, great team, but still, if he'd been a truly very good 3 point shooter, then he would have taken more shots. His role would have expanded.

He may still be awesome based on all of his other pluses. But I'm still in the Sheppard camp. Sheppard isn't just a good shooter, he's a historically good shooter. And statistically Sheppard isn't one dimensional, either. If anything, Sheppard was held back by his team more than Castle.

[nate33]

The biggest reason I like Castle is because of the comments about his great work ethic.

But I'm not buying him as a great shooter just based on a 3 point drill at the combine-
* He shot terribly during real games in real conditions- 27%. Granted, it was a sample size of 75 shots, but still... There's a massive difference between shooting in practice and shooting in front of defenders and fans. Almost not even the same thing.
* Yeah, he was on a great, great team, but still, if he'd been a truly very good 3 point shooter, then he would have taken more shots. His role would have expanded.

He may still be awesome based on all of his other pluses. But I'm still in the Sheppard camp. Sheppard isn't just a good shooter, he's a historically good shooter. And statistically Sheppard isn't one dimensional, either. If anything, Sheppard was held back by his team more than Castle.

Sheppard really might be as accurate of a shooter as Curry, but he hasn't yet demonstrated the quick release. His release is pretty quick but not Curry level. The question is, if given enough off-ball screens, can he run around the perimeter and launch threes with enough frequency and accuracy to pull defenses away from the paint with the same type of gravity that Curry demonstrated?

I'm sure teams will test that with him in private workouts. We all know he can shoot. Can that shot be weaponized?

[tontoz]

The biggest reason I like Castle is because of the comments about his great work ethic.

But I'm not buying him as a great shooter just based on a 3 point drill at the combine-
* He shot terribly during real games in real conditions- 27%. Granted, it was a sample size of 75 shots, but still... There's a massive difference between shooting in practice and shooting in front of defenders and fans. Almost not even the same thing.
* Yeah, he was on a great, great team, but still, if he'd been a truly very good 3 point shooter, then he would have taken more shots. His role would have expanded.

He may still be awesome based on all of his other pluses. But I'm still in the Sheppard camp. Sheppard isn't just a good shooter, he's a historically good shooter. And statistically Sheppard isn't one dimensional, either. If anything, Sheppard was held back by his team more than Castle.

Sheppard really might be as accurate of a shooter as Curry, but he hasn't yet demonstrated the quick release. His release is pretty quick but not Curry level. The question is, if given enough off-ball screens, can he run around the perimeter and launch threes with enough frequency and accuracy to pull defenses away from the paint with the same type of gravity that Curry demonstrated?

I'm sure teams will test that with him in private workouts. We all know he can shoot. Can that shot be weaponized?

His release might not be as quick as Curry, but his release point is a lot higher. I watched Kentucky a lot and saw him making 3s on the move going both directions, off the dribble and catch. Good pullup j as well. He makes it all look easy.

I think in workouts they will be testing his ability to run the pick and roll. His shot creation ability is unclear. He was fairly passive at Kentucky much of the time.

[NatP4]

If you watch the 10 minute “scoring” section of this video, you’ll never see Sheppard receive an off ball screen/action. Was used exclusively as a PNR ball handler-with low usage, and a spot up shooter.

In the “playmaking” section at the 10:00 mark, you’ll see the UK halfcourt offense featuring Dillingham and Reeves running around screens repeatedly, while Sheppard is up top with the ball as the passer.

Bounced in round 1, coach was run out of town to a job at a lesser program. Sheppard was underused/misused.

Watch on YouTube

[Malapropism]

I would take Sheppard and not think twice. He's the closest thing to a sure thing as this draft is going to get. His feel is so good I just can't see a player like that not becoming an effective player.

[tontoz]

I happened to be watching live a couple of times when Sheppard did get aggressive. There were a couple of second halves when they were losing and he was like F this and just went off. It was a show.

[tontoz]

These games were fun to watch.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

[NatP4]

Also a fun one:

Watch on YouTube

[tontoz]

Nobody talks about Antonio Reeves but I think he could be a big help to a good team that needs scoring off the bench. He had a strong season and measured/tested well at the combine.

[badinage]

Here’s the thing:

Dawkins won’t take him, if the reports of “positional size” are to be believed. And why wouldn’t they be? You look at OKC — every player they drafted is bigger than average for his position.

If Sheppard is the best pick at 2, then we ought to take him.

But I doubt they do, even if he is.

[Dat2U]

I think Djurisic is my high upside sleeper, like Vukcevic last year

Read on Twitter

I will agree. To be honest he looks nothing like a 2nd round pick. I see him ranked in the 50s & below but on film he's looks like a 1st rd lock, shall I say, Luka-lite. I'd say he's my new favorite at 26.

[Dat2U]

Here’s the thing:

Dawkins won’t take him, if the reports of “positional size” are to be believed. And why wouldn’t they be? You look at OKC — every player they drafted is bigger than average for his position.

If Sheppard is the best pick at 2, then we ought to take him.

But I doubt they do, even if he is.

Positional size matters. Offensive skill, processing ability and work ethic matter more.

The PG position for the most part is still dominated by guys 6-3 or shorter. OKC has not shied away from taking these guys in the past or recently. I think the size thing is overblown, at least in regards to PGs.

[J-Ves]

man, Sheppard is an impressive athlete despite his size and t-rex arms. You really notice it when he goes for blocks on the perimeter. Usually guards fall into the "shooter" or "athlete" archetype and Sheppard may be one of the few who ticks both boxes

[9 and 20]

I hope San Antonio takes Clingan and Sheppard. They're going to go from 20 wins to like 60 overnight. Wemby is so good he can play with anyone. Would be hilarious to watch teams try to score on a front line that averages 7 feet, all good defenders.

[gesa2]

I hope San Antonio takes Clingan and Sheppard. They're going to go from 20 wins to like 60 overnight. Wemby is so good he can play with anyone. Would be hilarious to watch teams try to score on a front line that averages 7 feet, all good defenders.

Disagree on Clingan for the Spurs. Their offense is going to really hum as a 5 out drive and kick machine if they use Wemby as C. I think shooting is really important for them, I’d go with Sheppard and Risacher or Buzelis

[doclinkin]

Isn't youth potentially a 2 edged sword though?
You need to be patient with younger players and work harder at developing them
but you could be using part of the 4 year guaranteed window you have them for
waiting for them to figure it out. There's no guarantee you will have them beyond 4 years.

Players like Knecht and Kolek may not get much better physically, but they are probably
better positioned, mentally and by experience, to contribute sooner. Like Jaquez was.

That said, I'm not arguing that you shouldn't, in general, consider youth to be a strength
when looking at a prospect but just noting that there could be a drawback.

I used to like late draft upperclassmen more than the phenoms at the top of the draft for exactly that reason: you get production early, better value for production ratio. But I read a Sloan Sports Conference/MIT paper analyzing the best of the best, which determined that the surest mark of top level success is for a player to show it early. That is the players who show skill younger had a higher top end and were more likely to develop further. This applied primarily to players whose stats show up in box scores though, not just those who show athletic talent. The earlier you show the ability to help your team win, the greater the upside. Late bloomers exist, there are Giannis and Paul George types, and Bigs tend to take longer to season, but in general looking for the combination of youth and productivity can be an asset for a team that is able to develop them. If they develop slow then you can lock them into a Deni contract and benefit from their peak at a discount rate.

[nate33]

I hope San Antonio takes Clingan and Sheppard. They're going to go from 20 wins to like 60 overnight. Wemby is so good he can play with anyone. Would be hilarious to watch teams try to score on a front line that averages 7 feet, all good defenders.

Disagree on Clingan for the Spurs. Their offense is going to really hum as a 5 out drive and kick machine if they use Wemby as C. I think shooting is really important for them, I’d go with Sheppard and Risacher or Buzelis

Agreed. I'm not sure if they should go with Sheppard or Dillingham though. Dillingham's penetration ability can be maximized in a 5-out scheme whereas 5-out helps Sheppard less. Also, if anyone can compensate for the defensive inadequacies of Dillingham, it's Wemby. Topic also works for them.

I like Sheppard with Detroit. He can provide spacing on Day 1 for them as they run the offense through Cade. And as Sheppard improves his PG game, he can help take the load off of Cade.

Sheppard also fits fairly well with us if you assume we will still have Poole, Deni and Kuzma handing a lot of pick and roll initiation..

[doclinkin]

Does not look like a 42" vert to me:

Read on Twitter

By contrast, Nate Robinson had a 43" vert.

Watch on YouTube

Wish there was a way to keep folks from tainting the numbers on reach vs jump. Or better yet, just give us the max reach of vert+jump. What's the highest you can tap on the sticks. That information is actually useful. The old DraftXpress database used to have that.

But hey maybe. He did uncork one high flier this year:

Watch on YouTube

That there looks like a legit 42" with enough runway to get up to speed.

[penbeast0]

Wow, lots of different opinions - this draft strikes me as interesting that way. I wonder if this is going on in the FOs around the league.

Looks like most of the board will be disappointed on draft night no matter who we pick.

Then again if we did draft someone like Reed at 2 i wouldn't be that disappointed even though i wouldn't advocate doing it.

I said this on another board, but for practically the first time in almost 40 years, I am willing to suspend my #soWizards disbelief and trust that they will make good calls on their draft picks. I don't know that but based on track record and what I've seen so far, I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.