payitforward wrote:This "weak draft" stuff is driving me a little batty.
1. Take 3 guys out of the 2011 draft -- Kyrie, Kawhi & Jimmy -- & how does it look? Horrible. Especially the lottery.
2. Did anyone -- even a single commentator -- predict that Kawhi & Jimmy would become two first-ballot HOF players? Two of the very best players of their or any era? No, no one did.
3. Of the 13 players taken after Kyrie & before Kawhi, how many of them turned into outstanding NBA players -- not just good but outstanding, tho not necessarily perennial all stars? Answer: 2 of them: the 9th pick (Kemba Walker) & the 11th pick (Klay Thompaon).
4. Did anyone predict big upsides of that kind for Kemba Walker & Klay Thompson? Answer: no -- that is, they both outperformed expeectations.
In other words, we have not the faintest idea of whether 2024 will turn out to be a strong draft , a weak one, or somewhere in between.
Its weak, deal with it. Doesn't mean there aren't going to be huge values, or guys much better than expected. The take that they have no clue about anything is just silly. It really is. I think part of the problem too is that people are not taking into account what makes people like drafts, and it aint freaking kemba walkers. People like drafts and rate them strongly when they have prospects projected to have elite, very high ceilings from the jump. Are they wrong sometimes, yes, do they miss on a Giannis here, or a Kawhi there, yes (although I find the Kawhi stuff particularly amusing since he and MKG had the same knock: broken shots, and now people pretend MKG was always stupid and Kawhi was always genius), but classes get judged both on the depth of their high end quality, and on the overall presence or lack thereof of obvious, elite, franchise changing talents in terms of potential, does a draft have guys like Ja Morant, Wemby, Antonio Davis, Kevin Durants, Doncic's, etc or does it not. The reason people are hating on this is because it's light on high end guys with star potential (nobody can identify anyone that seems likely to be that) and its completely absent of transformative, superstar potential.
I don't know why this is hard. Could a Giannis happen? Yes. It can always happen. Could a 2000 or 2013 happen where the top end of the draft is total ----, and the vast bulk of it is landmine after landmine with a few hidden gems, yes, equally so. We don't know who will be great and who will be bad, but its always a better draft when the draft features talent that appears to have higher ceiling players present, and lots of them as opposed to ones that do not. If its the latter, its far, far more difficult to avoid the land mines and find that hidden giannis or gobert etc.
You just cherry pick the hell out of this like the two hits between slot 11 and 60 are obvious when they are not, and for some reason you fixate on complimentary players when they don't move the needle much at all, Were you and the rest of the board that loved Brandon Clarke 5 years ago right? Yep. Did Brandon Clarke transform anything at all for anyone? Nope. Collecting complimentary 4th and 5th best players on a playoff teams aint winning squat, and suggesting that there are two superstars hidden between 7 and 45 is all well and good, but you do know the 36 other guys taken there are not needle movers or franchise transformative and generally speaking there is a reason those guys are going in those random odd spots, and are impossible to identify with any consistency ahead of time both for good and for bad.
I'm all for your strategy when we're picking low and outside the obvious stud tier, but otherwise, no, and its not a magic solution to any problem to begin with because the bulk of franchise transforming players have been at the top of drafts and the ones that aren't were typically blind folded pin tail/donkey scenario selections rather than GM genius.