The RealGM Wizards Board Draft Thread 2008/2009

[fishercob]

Yeah, I don't get projecting Jennings has a high lotto pick. SHouldn't the fact that he couldn't get his act together to play a year of college ball count against him? What separates him from Bassie Telfair or Booger Smith?

[Ji]

the more I read about Griffen, the more I think Franchise player

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2009 ... ugh-090330

[Dat2U]

Dat, I like your list in general but don't have in my mind that clear a picture of where they stand.

Based on glimpses in the NCAAs, I'd bump Green farther up that list. DeRozan's more of a 3 IMO, but he's real good.

Nobody did more to hurt their stock than Harden. Henderson was just as bad in the tourney, but his bloodlines and athleticism will still have him drafted high.

The two guys I like where you have them rated are Lawson and Maynor (just based on big shots hit over time) . Both those guys can play.

The most underrated guy on the list besides Lawson is Steph Curry. That guy will be deadly in the NBA.

It means you have a life unlike me. I've read enough scouting reports & watched enough footage to get paid by somebody! I've got the top 20 or so prospects down, now I'm starting to pay attention to the lesser names and find out more about them.

Green may deserve to be higher, but keep in mind that this draft is so top heavy in guards that right now Green is still a late 1st rounder in my book although he's the 20th guard prospect.

This is a terrible, just terrible draft in terms of big men. Outside of Griffin & Blair, IMO there's not a big capable of contributing in the NBA next season. Thabeet is a bust in the making. Cole Aldrich might be a half way decent prospect but he may go back to school. We've talked about Monroe, he's likely going back. It's incredible the lack of depth there.

Harden didn't hurt his stock in my eyes. His tourney play re-confirmed my thoughts about him. He's a late lottery/mid-first rounder this year. He might be late first rounder in other years.

Henderson projects to be a good role player IMO. He's seriously overvalued as a mid-lottery pick though.

Lawson IMO could end up as a top 5 pick like Felton did. He's got elite quickness and shows solid PG instincts.

I think Curry has even better court vision than Lawson, is bigger and a better shooter (not quite the athlete) but he may not go as high. Personally I think Curry's one of the best five players in this draft but may only go top ten.

[pancakes3]

the more I read about Griffen, the more I think Franchise player

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2009 ... ugh-090330

look at the unmitigated fear in hansborough's eyes.

[DCZards]

Co-sign on Felton. I've come around on him. I've been very impressed with his tourney performance. He's shorter than Felton, but quicker with better PG instincts. He can get to anywhere he wants on the court and is strong enough to finish around the basket.

My list changes everyday but at the moment I'd rate the guards like this:

PGs

1. (1) Ricky Rubio
2. (4) Ty Lawson
3. (6) Eric Maynor
4. (9) Brandon Jennings
5. (13) Jonny Flynn
6. (15) Darren Collison
7. (16) Nick Calathes
8. (18) Patrick Mills

Combo Guards

1. (2) Tyreke Evans
2. (3) Stephen Curry
3. (10) Jeff Teague
4. (12) Willie Warren
5. (14) JRue Holiday

Shooting Guards

1. (5) Chase Budinger
2. (7) Gerald Henderson
3. (8) DeMar DeRozan
4. (11) James Harden
5. (17) Wayne Ellington
6. (19) Danny Green
7. (20) Terrence Williams

Yep, there's some future NBAers here. But the #1 talent on the list, imo, is Tyreke Evans.

Call me crazy, but I'm taking Evans #1 overall. Yes, ahead of Griffin. Blake is a great physical presence and is extremely quick and athletic for a man his size. He has tremendous potential at the next level. As one poster has said, he could very well average a double-double as a rookie. But Griffin's offensive game, which I know will improve, is limited. He's also not much of a shotblocker. However, Griffin could turn out to be as good as Amare Stoudamire...and that's pretty damn good.

But today's NBA is dominated by guys with Evans's physical tools. Tall and rangy (Evans is a true 6-6 and growing) with a diverse set of offensive skills. And capable of playing both guard positions as well as some SF. (Think Kobe, Wade or LeBron: or Joe Johnson or Brandon Roy)

Some posters have talked about comparisions to Griffin and Beasley. Here's a question: if last year's draft were held again would Beasley go ahead of OJ Mayo? Maybe...maybe not.

I get a sneaky feeling that 3-4 years from now Evans will be the best player from this year's draft.

Ok...I'm ready for the incoming fire.

[fishercob]

DCZ, in the unlikely event the Wiz get the #1 pick, I'm fairly confident it's going to be Griffin. His body of work is far superior than anyone else's out there.

That said, you and others have me warming to the idea of picking Evans if we pick anywhere other than first. There's a lot to like about him.. I'd still try to trade the pick for an upgrade at PF or SG, but the Evans options is one I'm getting more interested in.

And now I see that he has a 1.1 A/TO ratio and shot 27% from the college 3. So I'll just be quiet now

[closg00]

Red-Alert regarding Evans

The problem is that he's almost amongst the NCAA leaders in field goal attempts and turnovers (at a dismal 4.5 per-40), highlighting one of his biggest flaws—his shoot-first mentality.

We have enough shoot-first guys on the team.

[DCZards]

Red-Alert regarding Evans

The problem is that he's almost amongst the NCAA leaders in field goal attempts and turnovers (at a dismal 4.5 per-40), highlighting one of his biggest flaws—his shoot-first mentality.

We have enough shoot-first guys on the team.

Don't be put off by Evans's numbers. The kid was playing h.s. ball this time last year. And he was asked to play PG (a position he did not play in h.s.) on a Memphis team that had just lost 3 players to the NBA. So I'm sure he was being encouraged to have a short-first mentality.

Yes, Griffin is the safe bet....but Evans, imo, has the greater upside.

[queridiculo]

But today's NBA is dominated by guys with Evans's physical tools. Tall and rangy (Evans is a true 6-6 and growing) with a diverse set of offensive skills. And capable of playing both guard positions as well as some SF. (Think Kobe, Wade or LeBron: or Joe Johnson or Brandon Roy)

Evans to me looks like he's closer to 6'4" than 6'6". Not a big difference but certainly not anywhere near Kobe, Wade or Lebron when it comes to pure athleticism.

Evans biggest weapons are his hesitation moves and how smooth and intuitively he can change directions on defenders to leave them flat footed.

He's not a jump out of gym dunk in your face type player like Kobe, Wade or Lebron. In fact I don't think it's even close. Young is closer to that elite athleticism than Evans in my opinion and he's a legit 6'7".

I like Evans a lot, but I would compare him to Arenas more than anybody.

Now Evans Turner is a completely different story, he compares much more favorably to the guys you mentioned.

Some posters have talked about comparisions to Griffin and Beasley. Here's a question: if last year's draft were held again would Beasley go ahead of OJ Mayo? Maybe...maybe not.

I get a sneaky feeling that 3-4 years from now Evans will be the best player from this year's draft.

Ok...I'm ready for the incoming fire.

I was pretty adamant about Mayo being the best player in last years draft going as far as suggesting we move Arenas in a sign and trade for Chicago's or Miami's pick and rescinding our Bird rights to Jamison to sign Josh Smith.

To this day I will not understand how Beasley and Rose were drafted ahead of Mayo. He clearly did more with less than those other guys and the same is true for Griffin this year.

Griffin is going to be the man, believe it.

[nate33]

Yes, Griffin is the safe bet....but Evans, imo, has the greater upside.

I can buy the argument that Evans might be the sleeper pick at #3. But do you actually think he has greater upside than Griffin?

Sorry, I just don't see it. Evans is an intriguing talent but he can't shoot and doesn't pass well. You are assuming an awful lot to predict that he will develop those skills sufficiently to become more valuable than a guy who is surely going to be a rock-solid above-average NBA big man (if not better).

Right now, he looks like he might pan out to be an O.J. Mayo or Larry Hughes type of player. While that's nice, I prefer Griffin who is likely to fall somewhere between Carlos Boozer and Karl Malone.

[DCZards]

Right now, he looks like he might pan out to be an O.J. Mayo or Larry Hughes type of player. While that's nice, I prefer Griffin who is likely to fall somewhere between Carlos Boozer and Karl Malone.

Boozer/Malone...that's good company and probably close to the mark as far as Griffin's future is concerned. Don't get me wrong, Blake will be a STAR. But I'm talking about both talent and the ability to control the game...tempo, playmaking, etc. That's why I give the edge to a guy like Evans. (Of course, based on the Wizards needs you'd probably go with Griffin since we have a playmaker in GA.)

Take Utah, for example, as good as Boozer is...Deron Williams is far and away the Jazz's most important player. Utah could probably afford to lose Boozer to an injury. If Deron gets hurt, they're sunk.

[nate33]

Take Utah, for example, as good as Boozer is...Deron Williams is far and away the Jazz's most important player. Utah could probably afford to lose Boozer to an injury. If Deron gets hurt, they're sunk.

I don't like that analogy because Deron Williams is arguably a top 10 player in this league. Any team that loses a top 10 player is sunk. I just don't see top 10 talent in Evans.

If the 2004/05 Wizards lost prime Larry Hughes, it would've cost them a few wins but it wouldn't destroy the team. (Indeed, they actually did lose Hughes and went 14-16 in the 30 games without him.)

[Dat2U]

I like Tyreke Evans and honestly, as of now, I think he's the 3rd best prospect in the draft. But there's no way in hell I'd draft him over Griffin or Rubio. Griffin is on a tier by himself. Rubio is on the 2nd tier by himself. Tyreke Evans is the best of the rest on the 3rd tier IMO. His weaknesses have been pointed out. He's a questionable decision maker, a bit of a volume scorer and is not a consistent shooter. In many other years he'd be a top 10 choice, not a top five.

He's got great handles, excellent athleticism (although not elite) and a real developed skillset. I think the Larry Hughes comparisons are good although Evans has the frame to withstand the contact of attacking the rim the way Hughes couldn't. Evans could very well put up the type of numbers for us that Hughes did alongside Gil but that doesn't make him a better prospect then Griffin or Rubio.

[queridiculo]

[q

Take Utah, for example, as good as Boozer is...Deron Williams is far and away the Jazz's most important player. Utah could probably afford to lose Boozer to an injury. If Deron gets hurt, they're sunk.

Evans isn't even a pure pointguard, to compare him to Deron Williams is ludicrous as far as I'm concerned. Evans turns the ball over at a disgustingly high clip and his lack of reliable outside shot is going to limit his effectiveness in the pros.

Gilbert light would be flattery at this point. His game is so far from polished it's not even funny.

[DCZards]

Evans isn't even a pure pointguard, to compare him to Deron Williams is ludicrous as far as I'm concerned. Evans turns the ball over at a disgustingly high clip and his lack of reliable outside shot is going to limit his effectiveness in the pros.

Gilbert light would be flattery at this point. His game is so far from polished it's not even funny.

Evans game is "far from polished." Duh. Of course it is, he's a college freshman for crying out loud. And, btw, there have been a lot of college players who came into the NBA with an unreliable outside shot, including a guy named Jordan. Many of them managed to improve their shooting. So, please, let's not act as if Evans is a finished product at the tender age of 19.

As for the turnovers, hopefully with some "polish" he'll have fewer of them. Three of the top turnover prone guys in the NBA are LeBron James, D. Wade and G. Arenas. When you're the go-to-guy and you are called upon to handle the ball a lot you usually turn it over a lot. It's just the way it is.

Speaking of turnovers, I'm sure the NBA folks love the fact that Ty Lawson can play at such a breakneck speed and rarely turn the ball over. That's a GREAT attribute for a PG, which, along with his improving perimeter shooting, will probably earn Lawson a draft spot somewhere between 5-10.

[nate33]

As for the turnovers, hopefully with some "polish" he'll have fewer of them. Three of the top turnover prone guys in the NBA are LeBron James, D. Wade and G. Arenas. When you're the go-to-guy and you are called upon to handle the ball a lot you usually turn it over a lot. It's just the way it is.

Actually, that's not true. Wade is definitely among the league leaders in turnovers, but Arenas and Lebron are not. If you rank the past 5 player-seasons by turnovers per minute, Wade ranks 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 16th and 25th; Lebron ranks 23rd, 31st, 32nd, 42nd and 84th; and Arenas ranks 12th, 39th and 61st (plus 2 incompletes).

[LyricalRico]

DCZards on the wrong side of the facts? Imagine that...

[DCZards]

Actually, that's not true. Wade is definitely among the league leaders in turnovers, but Arenas and Lebron are not. If you rank the past 5 player-seasons by turnovers per minute, Wade ranks 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 16th and 25th; Lebron ranks 23rd, 31st, 32nd, 42nd and 84th; and Arenas ranks 12th, 39th and 61st (plus 2 incompletes).

Point well taken, nate. However, my basic point is that most superstars, especially those who handle the ball a lot and play a lot of minutes, have a ton of turnovers. DWade, Kobe, LeBron, Chris Paul and Dwight Howard--five pretty good players--all average between 2.5 and 3.5 turnovers a game, well above the NBA average.

[queridiculo]

Evans game is "far from polished." Duh. Of course it is, he's a college freshman for crying out loud. And, btw, there have been a lot of college players who came into the NBA with an unreliable outside shot, including a guy named Jordan. Many of them managed to improve their shooting. So, please, let's not act as if Evans is a finished product at the tender age of 19.

I like Evans, don't get me wrong, but the tweener label is going to hurt him come draft day. I wouldn't be shocked to see him drop into the early, late teens because of that.

Then again, this draft class becomes really murky after the first pick, anything could happen between pre-draft camp and the night the Wizards will call out Griffin as their 1st pick.

[Dat2U]

I like Evans, don't get me wrong, but the tweener label is going to hurt him come draft day. I wouldn't be shocked to see him drop into the early, late teens because of that.

Then again, this draft class becomes really murky after the first pick, anything could happen between pre-draft camp and the night the Wizards will call out Griffin as their 1st pick.

I wouldn't call Evans a tweener. I'd call him versatile. I think he's got the height and length to be fine at SG. But it's his ballhandling skills, ability to breakdown defenders and finish around the basket which makes him a tempting prospect. He's an ideal combo guard in terms of size & skillset.

In this draft, there's no way he's falling into the teens. IMO, come draft day, he's a guaranteed top 6 pick. Like I said, I believe he's the 3rd best prospect in this draft, but he's not on the level of Griffin or Rubio.