The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking!

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Matisse Thybulle is an elite defender. One of the best in the league. Would you draft him with a top 5 pick?

If your predicting the 1% percentile development for him where he turns his weaknesses into a strength and becomes an all-star or even franchise player ... then we'll have to agree to disagree. Nothing on his film says he's going to be Butler or Kawhi. It's a projection that doesn't appear realistic.

I don't think I'm saying he'll be Jimmy Butler. I'm saying he has room for improvement in the areas where his game falls short. Yes. But has shown the aptitude, work ethic, frame, and track record to improve in that area, with nothing preventing him from doing so. Like bButler, I expect him to consistently improve over his career. Where that tops out is anyone's guess.

If your thought is that he lacks offensive skills entirely, cannot improve, and will only be a defensive sub his entire career, I'm willing to bet you are way wrong on that. When selecting a player for upside, you want the balance of athleticism, length for position, frame to build strength, AND BBIQ, instincts, competitiveness, to arrive at a conclusion of how likely and possible it is for a player to achieve their upside. When you have a young player with a track record that shows good marks in all of the above, its a good bet they won't stay static, but will continue that growth. So what is the top end of that growth curve and can they reach it?

I think people get too hung up on their opinion of what a draft position is 'worth'. Top pick. 1-5. Whatever. I think it is more a question of when you look back at their career, will people say this guy is one of the top 5 best players in this draft? Is this a player likely to improve. Do they have the foundation to build on. Are they going to max out on their progression or is there something preventing them from doing so.

You can cite Johnny Davis. But Davis measured small, was never going to add strength or length, was an undersized high-usage low-efficiency 2-guard with obvious flaws-- and aside from hustle on defense and hard work, did nothing in particular unless he had the ball. He was never going to be an auxiliary glue guy. Even if he added range he still would need to add playmaking, length, offball skills, etc. pretty much everything. Plus height.

Whereas Castle has everything he would need to succeed as a superior role-player coming into the league, and only needs to show the offensive aggression he displayed in highschool in head to head match-ups against Collier. And a shooting coach. He has shown the aptitude to adjust to what his team needed, on a squad that had high volume attackers, and an outside gunning specialist. His job on UConn was not to put up shots that Spencer and Karaban got off the screens he set. His job was to get them open. Cut to the basket on backdoor attacks. Feed the post and play a 2-man game with Clingan. In short order he fit in with an established team and role, then amplified that role and improved over the season. When stakes were highest he played his best. The only way to tell if a player will improve is if they have shown an ability to improve. Castle did. Peaked when it mattered most. And won. If it's me I bet on him being able to continue that trend. Yes the top end of that trend is Jimmy Butler (not Kawhi, who is a freak of nature with a handspan bigger than most Centers). But if you land a guy who tops out as a longer more athletic Marcus Smart. In this draft. I'm thinking that is probably one of the top 5 best players in this draft. And less likely to flame out as a wasted pick on a guy who will never live up to his potential. I am banking on Castle to realize that potential. Based on his history.

If JaVale McGee showed BBIQ and work ethic and a rage to compete as well as the humility to fit in to a scheme and constantly improve, he could have been a HOF player. A Kareem level of superlatives. He didn't and even in college was noted as kinda flaky. His physical make-up was better than Alex Sarr. We will never again see a guy dunk 3 balls at once in a dunk contest. We will never see a guy dunk on 2 baskets at the same time. His career did not live out to his potential. Few do. I think Castle does. Based on the foundation and trends of what he has shown so far.

Work ethic is one factor on upside. It is not the sole factor.

I'd argue McGee did maximize his potential.

I think McGee and Kwame Brown both did well with what they had. Everyone isn't motivated with the same idea of success. What others see as their potential might not be what they aspire to. I don't think McGee aspired to be great. Another factor is aptitude. Some people are bad at math. Others can't dance. Just because a player has standout measurables and athleticism, it doesn't mean they have the aptitude to successfully apply skill on the court.

McGee was briefly out of the league between Philadelphia and Denver. He came back and played on championship teams. Kwame played 14 years. Neither guy was sharp. IMO. Both knew enough to show up over time.

doclinkin, sorry for hijacking your thread. I totally agree with you. McGee didn't achieve



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[doclinkin]

I'd argue McGee did maximize his potential.

I think McGee and Kwame Brown both did well with what they had. Everyone isn't motivated with the same idea of success. What others see as their potential might not be what they aspire to. I don't think McGee aspired to be great. Another factor is aptitude. Some people are bad at math. Others can't dance. Just because a player has standout measurables and athleticism, it doesn't mean they have the aptitude to successfully apply skill on the court.

McGee was briefly out of the league between Philadelphia and Denver. He came back and played on championship teams. Kwame played 14 years. Neither guy was sharp. IMO. Both knew enough to show up over time.

doclinkin, sorry for hijacking your thread. I totally agree with you. McGee didn't achieve

Lol not my thread. (Now I know I need to stop posting for a day or two).

McGee was so disappointing because he was deficient in the things his mom (and aunt) were so damned good at. Tough under the basket, fierce in the paint, gritty play. Championship mindset whether at USC or the Olympics. Focus. BBIQ. Determination.

He was raised to be a basketball god. But decided he'd rather not. Didn't really care as much as all that, just was in it for a good time. The original Shaqtin' a Fool all-star.

[DCZards]

The hesitancy in shooting is just as big as poor percentages. Castle averaged 2.2 attempts a game from the college 3. It's a massive jump to assume he'll become a volume shooter from NBA 3. I have no doubt he'll work at it but I have legitimate concerns that he'll crater spacing the moment he steps on an NBA floor as teams will dare him to prove he can make shots.

Dat, I’m a little surprised you keep bringing this up as a criticism of Castle.

Why would Castle take more than two 3s a game when he was sharing the court with Newton, Spencer, Diarra, and Karaban…all of whom are better 3pt shooters? Shooting 3s was not Castle’s role…nor should it have been. But that doesn’t mean he lacked the confidence or willingness to take them.

Personally, I like the fact that a five-star recruit like Castle understood his role (and limitations) and did not try to be 'da man.

[payitforward]

SI has us taking Ron Holland at 2, which seems unlikely (but what do I know?), & gives us Kelel Ware at 26 plus Trevon Brazile at 52 -- leaving Pacome Dadiet (whom someone likes a fair bit) on the board for Memphis to nab at 58.

[nate33]

SI has us taking Ron Holland at 2, which seems unlikely (but what do I know?), & gives us Kelel Ware at 26 plus Trevon Brazile at 52 -- leaving Pacome Dadiet (whom someone likes a fair bit) on the board for Memphis to nab at 58.

I don't think Ron Holland at #2 is unlikely at all.

[NatP4]

Read on Twitter

Based on this: I’d take Topic at #2(or #1), Dadiet at #26(insane value), and #51 simply has an absurd amount of talent available including Nikola Djurisic, Ulrich Comche, Pelle Larsson, Nique Clifford, Ariel Hukporti, Mark Sears, JT Toppin, Jalen Bridges.

[DCZards]

SI has us taking Ron Holland at 2, which seems unlikely (but what do I know?), & gives us Kelel Ware at 26 plus Trevon Brazile at 52 -- leaving Pacome Dadiet (whom someone likes a fair bit) on the board for Memphis to nab at 58.

I don't think Ron Holland at #2 is unlikely at all.

I don’t think it’s unlikely either. Holland is in my top 5.

[Dat2U]

SI has us taking Ron Holland at 2, which seems unlikely (but what do I know?), & gives us Kelel Ware at 26 plus Trevon Brazile at 52 -- leaving Pacome Dadiet (whom someone likes a fair bit) on the board for Memphis to nab at 58.

I don't think Ron Holland at #2 is unlikely at all.

I don’t think it’s unlikely either. Holland is in my top 5.

Holland is my #1 wing and lock in my top 4. He could definitely go 2.

[payitforward]

...He is Marcus Smart. Smart went #6 in a better draft (2014) and was probably about the 9th best player in his draft class. (Ahead of him, I have Jokic, Embiid, Randle, Capela, Gordon, Bogdanovic, Grant and Lavine.)

If you can land a Marcus Smart clone at #4 or #5 in this draft, that's not bad. I'm not necessarily sold on him as our pick, but I don't hate it either.

Interesting way of looking at it, nate.

Given the realities of drafting, it would be rare, obviously, to get the 6th best player with the 6th pick. You might do better - i.e. maybe even get the very best player at 6 - but, I'd say that if you get the 9th best player with the 6th pick you''ve probably done reasonably well.

Here are the other 9 players taken at #6 in the ten drafts from 2010-2019: Ekpe Udoh, Jan Vesely, Damian Lillard, Nerlens Noel, Willie Cauley-Stein, Buddy Hield, Jonathan Isaac, Mo Bamba, Jarrett Culver.

Lillard was obviously one of the very best from 2012, & Noel was likely among the top 9 in 2013. Isaac too in 2017.

But 6 of the 10 -- Udoh, Vesely, Cauley-Stein, Hield, Bamba & Culver -- weren't anywhere near the top 9 of their classes.

[payitforward]

I don't think Ron Holland at #2 is unlikely at all.

I don’t think it’s unlikely either. Holland is in my top 5.

Holland is my #1 wing and lock in my top 4. He could definitely go 2.

Yeah, I was writing quickly, w/o looking back at a list, & I confused his name w/ someone else.... Holland does seem likely to be taken near the top.

[Dat2U]

The hesitancy in shooting is just as big as poor percentages. Castle averaged 2.2 attempts a game from the college 3. It's a massive jump to assume he'll become a volume shooter from NBA 3. I have no doubt he'll work at it but I have legitimate concerns that he'll crater spacing the moment he steps on an NBA floor as teams will dare him to prove he can make shots.

Dat, I’m a little surprised you keep bringing this up as a criticism of Castle.

Why would Castle take more than two 3s a game when he was sharing the court with Newton, Spencer, Diarra, and Karaban…all of whom are better 3pt shooters? Shooting 3s was not Castle’s role…nor should it have been. But that doesn’t mean he lacked the confidence or willingness to take them.

Personally, I like the fact that a five-star recruit like Castle understood his role (and limitations) and did not try to be 'da man.

I'm glad he knows how to be a good role player. I think that's great if I'm drafting late lottery or lower. If I'm drafting top 3 or 5, I need core piece that can create offense or at least provide elite switchability and rim protection, not another jack-of-all trades who knows how to fit in.

The love affair Wizards fans have with role playing guards is quite interesting. Castle, Black & Daniels represent what Wiztwitter especially seems to love with the last 3 draft cycles. Tall, non-shooting guards who can defend their ass off. I don't know if its burn out from the Gil/Wall eras of ball-dominant guards who didn't always play D or what but it's clear there's a fascination among DC basketball fans with long high IQ guys that play the right way, even if scoring is a real struggle for them.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

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Based on this: I’d take Topic at #2(or #1), Dadiet at #26(insane value), and #51 simply has an absurd amount of talent available including Nikola Djurisic, Ulrich Comche, Pelle Larsson, Nique Clifford, Ariel Hukporti, Mark Sears, JT Toppin, Jalen Bridges.

Hey Nat what's your assessment of Durisic? I'm not high on Topic as a top 3 pick, but Durisic as a potential 2nd round bargain has my interest (rookiescale has him going 52). He's only a year older than Topic, and seems like a comparable prospect?

Per NBA DRAFT ROOM:
Draft Notes
Nikola is a big, strong 6-8 guard/wing from Serbia who has an intriguing mix of play-making ability, shot making and size.
He’s got a rock solid frame for a young guard and can hold his own physically at higher levels of competition, even as a teenager.
Nikola is a good ball handler who can break his man down with the dribble and create space to get his shot. He’s got the height to shoot over the defense and a really nice shooting stroke. He’s not yet consistent from 3 or from the FT line but has good form and all the makings of a high level scorer.
Nikola isn’t the most explosive athlete (think more like a Joe Johnson than a Tracy McGrady) but should be able to add some vertical pop with more training.

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[SUPERBALLMAN]

SI has us taking Ron Holland at 2, which seems unlikely (but what do I know?), & gives us Kelel Ware at 26 plus Trevon Brazile at 52 -- leaving Pacome Dadiet (whom someone likes a fair bit) on the board for Memphis to nab at 58.

Give us Dadiet at 52 (or is it 51?), and I'll be a happy camper... Holland, Ware, Dadiet, I'll take it! (Although personally I would prefer Castle over Holland.). I would be absolutely thrilled if we come away with Ware at 26 & Dadiet at 51!

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Another prospect has my eye late 2nd round is 20 yr old 6-7 G Adama Bal. NBA DRAFT ROOM has him going 49, rookiescale looks like he's undrafted... And then there's 6-5 JR G Ajay Mitchell, NBA DRAFT ROOM has him 47 & rookiescale at 49.

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[doclinkin]

I don't think Ron Holland at #2 is unlikely at all.

I don’t think it’s unlikely either. Holland is in my top 5.

Holland is my #1 wing and lock in my top 4. He could definitely go 2.

Wing.

Ron Holland who shot 24% from 3. On only 3 shots a game to Castle's 2. Who hogged the ball so much that he starved the stats of the other players on his squad, and whose squad consequently lost so consistently that the NBA eliminated the showcase team as a bad look.

I think he will measure with average length at the combine and despite a max jump that will be impressive with a runway to take off, he does not look to me like he will be a force forward when matched against better competition. Considering he had a total of 3 double digit rebounding games as a forward, against weak competition.

But it's okay because we project him to play as a face-up perimeter player I guess? Help me understand the difference then. A face-up outside player with a negative ast/TO ratio, vs the non playmaker Castle who showed a 4:2 ast/to ratio. A face-up player who also can't shoot. And whose offense is 90% about running the floor to get liftoff to dunk. But we are giving him the benefit of the doubt despite worse shooting.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=stephon-castle--ron-holland

I like his hustle and athleticism and moxie. Quick first step on slashing attacks. His 1 on 1 defense is likewise elite. Love that most of his steals came from shutting off the ball handler, more than jumping passing lanes alone. But intangibles wise his overall game did not translate to winning basketball. At over 18 shots per 36 mins. So is his rating like PER, the stat that gives credit for simply putting up shots even if you miss?

If you subbed 6'8" Holland for 6'8" Karaban, does UConn win? I say if you subbed him for Castle the answer is no, since he'd be taking possessions from more effective shooters, and did not show quite the team play on defense.

So what's missing here. Curious about the reasoning and different standard. Do you project Holland's 24% 3pt shooting to improve significantly? Compared to Castle. Or, I guess, the rest of his game will? Hmmn, his FT% was below 70% for most of the season, so maybe his late improvement is a sign his outside shot will improve?

I saw a few Elite games and it seemed to me Holland was a key part of the problem with that team's chemistry. He wanted to star and carry the team, but was not as effective as his efforts. WIth a 30% usage, but a negative offensive score. He's got straightline speed, but nothing of the length, ball skills, and standstill explosion of players like Ausar and Amen. So why does this one get a pass? He is young with competitive fire, so like Castle I give him an upside chance to improve, but in my eyes the combo guard has the edge since he played larger for his supposed position, and was more effective in +/- and team play. At PG/SG he can play next to an undersized gunner and make them better. Has shown enough offball skills to boost a team with his screen and cut game. As a ball dominant 3/4 does Holland add enough as a point forward to improve the guys around him?

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I always love the 2nd round. That's been one of the most frustrating things about the management of this team throughout the years, the complete disregard for the 2nd round of the draft. So many players I like. For example, they don't fit our "timeline" like high upside prospects I prefer to take like Adem Bona, Dadiet & Durisic , but I do really like a few high floor seniors, like Baylor Scheierman (potential Kispert replacement?), PJ Hall (my comp is Tom Gugliotta), and Jalen Bridges (gives me total Trevor Ariza vibes).

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[NatP4]

Djurisic has 1st round talent, with 2nd round production. If he’s there at #51, I wouldn’t hesitate to take him. Bet he goes somewhere in the 25-45 range.

Topic has significantly better numbers across the board, and is 1.5 years younger, but Djurisic has been exploding lately:

Last 10 games: 22.9 points 4.0 rebounds 3.6 assists 1.5 steals 0.8 blocks on 52/46/80 shooting splits 65% TS.

Mega finished the regular season on a heater. Won their last 7 games. Djurisic scored in double figures in all of them. Had a random 12 assist game, and 3 games with 20+ points.

[Dat2U]

I don’t think it’s unlikely either. Holland is in my top 5.

Holland is my #1 wing and lock in my top 4. He could definitely go 2.

Wing.

Ron Holland who shot 24% from 3. On only 3 shots a game to Castle's 2. Who hogged the ball so much that he starved the stats of the other players on his squad, and whose squad consequently lost so consistently that the NBA eliminated the showcase team as a bad look.

I think he will measure with average length at the combine and despite a max jump that will be impressive with a runway to take off, he does not look to me like he will be a force forward when matched against better competition. Considering he had a total of 3 double digit rebounding games as a forward, against weak competition.

But it's okay because we project him to play as a face-up perimeter player I guess? Help me understand the difference then. A face-up outside player with a negative ast/TO ratio, vs the non playmaker Castle who showed a 4:2 ast/to ratio. A face-up player who also can't shoot. And whose offense is 90% about running the floor to get liftoff to dunk. But we are giving him the benefit of the doubt despite worse shooting.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=stephon-castle--ron-holland

I like his hustle and athleticism and moxie. Quick first step on slashing attacks. His 1 on 1 defense is likewise elite. Love that most of his steals came from shutting off the ball handler, more than jumping passing lanes alone. But intangibles wise his overall game did not translate to winning basketball. At over 18 shots per 36 mins. So is his rating like PER, the stat that gives credit for simply putting up shots even if you miss?

If you subbed 6'8" Holland for 6'8" Karaban, does UConn win? I say if you subbed him for Castle the answer is no, since he'd be taking possessions from more effective shooters, and did not show quite the team play on defense.

So what's missing here. Curious about the reasoning and different standard. Do you project Holland's 24% 3pt shooting to improve significantly? Compared to Castle. Or, I guess, the rest of his game will? Hmmn, his FT% was below 70% for most of the season, so maybe his late improvement is a sign his outside shot will improve?

I saw a few Elite games and it seemed to me Holland was a key part of the problem with that team's chemistry. He wanted to star and carry the team, but was not as effective as his efforts. WIth a 30% usage, but a negative offensive score. He's got straightline speed, but nothing of the length, ball skills, and standstill explosion of players like Ausar and Amen. So why does this one get a pass? He is young with competitive fire, so like Castle I give him an upside chance to improve, but in my eyes the combo guard has the edge since he played larger for his supposed position, and was more effective in +/- and team play. At PG/SG he can play next to an undersized gunner and make them better. Has shown enough offball skills to boost a team with his screen and cut game. As a ball dominant 3/4 does Holland add enough as a point forward to improve the guys around him?

It sounds like you want the best role player and fit right now. Not the best talent but the guy that's a ready made role player that can contribute to winning sooner than later. I guess that's fine but definitely not my personal preference with a high lottery pick, weak draft or not. I simply prefer Holland based on the physical tools he has to work with. Finding the guy that fits better with a winning framework seems more ideal if its later in the draft. I'm not necessarily making determinations off how seamlessly a 19 yr fits into a role because high in the lottery, I'm not trying to project who's going to be the best complimentary piece. I'm trying to determine who can potentially be shot creator and legit scoring option.

To me both have the physical tools and instincts to elite defenders. Both are poor shooters but Holland is a better athlete, has a much quicker first step and has more in his bag as a ball handler. I'm going to err with the guy that can potentially do more on the ball than a guy who plays the right way, but has clear limitations.

[Dat2U]

Djurisic has 1st round talent, with 2nd round production. If he’s there at #51, I wouldn’t hesitate to take him. Bet he goes somewhere in the 25-45 range.

Topic has significantly better numbers across the board, and is 1.5 years younger, but Djurisic has been exploding lately:

Last 10 games: 22.9 points 4.0 rebounds 3.6 assists 1.5 steals 0.8 blocks on 52/46/80 shooting splits 65% TS.

Mega finished the regular season on a heater. Won their last 7 games. Djurisic scored in double figures in all of them. Had a random 12 assist game, and 3 games with 20+ points.

Where is the first step? Because I didn't see one. Everything looks very perimeter oriented. Very skilled with the ball in his hands tho, seems good from midrange, good court vision. BBQ chicken on D. I gotta do a deeper dive but I think late 1st/early 2nd is reasonable.

[DCZards]

Dat, like you, I’m a fan of Holland’s athleticism and high end potential as a scorer, as well as the energy with which he plays. (I’ve heard comparisons to Westbrook in that regard.)

As you point out, Castle is a guy who plays the right way. The kind of player who will make his teammates, and therefore his team, better. A glue guy who will find a way to contribute—on both ends of the court—regardless of who he is sharing the court with.

Oftentimes, it’s easier to find a scorer than a guy like that.