The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking!

[AFM]

Yeah and now mine looks like both of those posts. Inception level sht. Leave it to PIF to break the entire board. SMH!!!

[payitforward]

PIF, you broke RealGm.

Yeah it was weird!
But I edited & fixed it....

[Rafael122]

We're killing Clingan here, yes the FT% is a concern, limited offensively, etc. I get it. But Castle can't shoot, Sarr is a worse shooter but we're calling him the top pick for reasons.

Topic has defensive and shooting issues. Sheppard, I've already made my feelings known on him. Dillingham is small, Holland for a guard shot 68% from the line.

It's a bad draft, I wouldn't even want the Wizards to pick 1st to be honest. This is a draft I'd be OK picking 3rd or 4th because it takes away the guessing game a bit. You can't teach height, Clingan is 7'2'' with a 7'7'' wingspan. If you're getting Walker Kessler upside with him, that's a 24-28 minute per game type of player with A1 defense. It's not up to us to figure the rest of his game out, or how to play him, or when to play him. That's on Winger/Dawkins and the coaching staff.

[Rafael122]

Check out Tankathon's plus/minus on Clingan, and then the rest of the prospects in the top 5. The only guy that comes close is Sheppard. Clingan's weaknesses are free throw %, which again, he improved his FT % and I think shot 65% or so from the Big East Tournament on, and three point shooting. I'm not expecting this kid to come out and start raining 3s. We have no interior defense, we were one of the worse rebounding teams in the league and had one of the worse rebounding differentials in the league. Sarr isn't going to help that any time soon.

[J-Ves]

Check out Tankathon's plus/minus on Clingan, and then the rest of the prospects in the top 5. The only guy that comes close is Sheppard. Clingan's weaknesses are free throw %, which again, he improved his FT % and I think shot 65% or so from the Big East Tournament on, and three point shooting. I'm not expecting this kid to come out and start raining 3s. We have no interior defense, we were one of the worse rebounding teams in the league and had one of the worse rebounding differentials in the league. Sarr isn't going to help that any time soon.

I like the idea of picking a developmental player like Sarr or Holland. The last thing we want to do is to lower our chances at picking Ace or Flagg next year because our rookie is NBA ready

[nate33]

We're killing Clingan here, yes the FT% is a concern, limited offensively, etc. I get it. But Castle can't shoot, Sarr is a worse shooter but we're calling him the top pick for reasons.

Topic has defensive and shooting issues. Sheppard, I've already made my feelings known on him. Dillingham is small, Holland for a guard shot 68% from the line.

It's a bad draft, I wouldn't even want the Wizards to pick 1st to be honest. This is a draft I'd be OK picking 3rd or 4th because it takes away the guessing game a bit. You can't teach height, Clingan is 7'2'' with a 7'7'' wingspan. If you're getting Walker Kessler upside with him, that's a 24-28 minute per game type of player with A1 defense. It's not up to us to figure the rest of his game out, or how to play him, or when to play him. That's on Winger/Dawkins and the coaching staff.

How do you figure Sarr is a worse shooter than Clingan?

Clingan shoots .583 from the FT line and .250 from 3 (in just 8 total attempts all year).
Sarr shoots .707 from the FT line and .276 from 3 on 3.9 attempts per 36. And he is a full year younger.

But the "reasons" for Sarr over Clingan is Sarr projects to be a versatile defender who can switch, show-and-recover, trap or drop in pick-and-roll coverage. That type of defensive versatility is what is necessary to advance in the playoffs. Drop coverage is fine to win you regular season games against middling opponents, but it tends not to work against the more talented teams who have A-List playmakers handling the ball.

And I'm not killing Clingan. I think he will be very good at what he is: a drop coverage big who will be exclusively a roll man on offense. Those kinds of players are nice, they're just not that hard to obtain. It's rare to have a top 5 pick. Don't waste it on the type of player who is consistently available in free agency.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Clingan is the only one in the top 10 of that mock draft that has a chance to play day one in the NBA. He's already there defensively, and Dat, as much as I respect your NBA draft knowledge, he's got a higher upside than Hartenstein. I liked the fact that from his first to second year, his FT% jumped from 51% to 58%. That to me shows he was working on his game, and he can only improve from there. Do we need him to be a 3 point shooter? Gobert is a walking 14 and 12. That's his ceiling IMO.

Everyone else in that top 10 either can't shoot or has a athleticism issues.

I don't know the picks well yet. I have a philosophy, however. There are a few guys in every draft who can come in and play day one.

On a hunch, I think Mark Sears out of Alabama has the quickness and the explosive scoring ability to start an NBA game. He averaged 21.6 in the SEC. He's an 86% FT shooter. He's a mature senior who played in two conferences. Sears had a strong NCAA run.

Sears is small but woefully underrated.



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[The Consiglieri]

I


Lol not my thread. (Now I know I need to stop posting for a day or two).

McGee was so disappointing because he was deficient in the things his mom (and aunt) were so damned good at. Tough under the basket, fierce in the paint, gritty play. Championship mindset whether at USC or the Olympics. Focus. BBIQ. Determination.

He was raised to be a basketball god. But decided he'd rather not. Didn't really care as much as all that, just was in it for a good time. The original Shaqtin' a Fool all-star.

doclinkin, one of my sons weighed 197 lbs in middle school. He is strong. He is quick. He played goalie on his youth soccer team. People said he would be a D-1 football player. A former NFL player who I know well raved about my son's build.

I totally committed my time and resources to putting my son on the path for future success. But during practice time, it was if my son's mind was a thousand miles away. Others ran. He walked. Some have a mean streak. He has a passive streak. He rebelled in a sparky way, starting at around 12. My efforts were for naught.

About a dozen years have passed since I last saw my son. The court system took him away. He went with his mother to Georgia. Now he's somewhere homeless.

What does this have to do with McGee? Ironically, when Javale came to Hawaii, KENDALL got his autograph. (Both my sons did.) That was his favorite player. I don't know about Javale, but I'm pretty sure my son has a cognitive issue. Everyone doesn't process reality the same way.

I hope I haven't said too much.

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Before I had a child of my own, I loved this, after I had my son (turning 8 this month) I loved this even more, though at times bittersweetly:

Kahlil Gibran on Children:

"And a woman who held a babe against her bosom said, Speak to us of Children.
And he said:
Your children are not your children.
They are the sons and daughters of Life’s longing for itself.
They come through you but not from you,
And though they are with you yet they belong not to you.

You may give them your love but not your thoughts,
For they have their own thoughts.
You may house their bodies but not their souls,
For their souls dwell in the house of tomorrow, which you cannot visit, not even in your dreams....."

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Lol not my thread. (Now I know I need to stop posting for a day or two).

McGee was so disappointing because he was deficient in the things his mom (and aunt) were so damned good at. Tough under the basket, fierce in the paint, gritty play. Championship mindset whether at USC or the Olympics. Focus. BBIQ. Determination.

He was raised to be a basketball god. But decided he'd rather not. Didn't really care as much as all that, just was in it for a good time. The original Shaqtin' a Fool all-star.

doclinkin, one of my sons weighed 197 lbs in middle school. He is strong. He is quick. He played goalie on his youth soccer team. People said he would be a D-1 football player. A former NFL player who I know well raved about my son's build.

I totally committed my time and resources to putting my son on the path for future success. But during practice time, it was if my son's mind was a thousand miles away. Others ran. He walked. Some have a mean streak. He has a passive streak. He rebelled in a sparky way, starting at around 12. My efforts were for naught.

About a dozen years have passed since I last saw my son. The court system took him away. He went with his mother to Georgia. Now he's somewhere homeless.

What does this have to do with McGee? Ironically, when Javale came to Hawaii, KENDALL got his autograph. (Both my sons did.) That was his favorite player. I don't know about Javale, but I'm pretty sure my son has a cognitive issue. Everyone doesn't process reality the same way.

I hope I haven't said too much.

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You've said too little...always love reading your posts

P.S.

My other (youngest) son is a Marine. He's been promoted ahead of his peers. He's about to become an instructor on a technical platform. He is accomplished in jiu-jitsu.

You just never know. Both grew up in the same home.

[Rafael122]

We're killing Clingan here, yes the FT% is a concern, limited offensively, etc. I get it. But Castle can't shoot, Sarr is a worse shooter but we're calling him the top pick for reasons.

Topic has defensive and shooting issues. Sheppard, I've already made my feelings known on him. Dillingham is small, Holland for a guard shot 68% from the line.

It's a bad draft, I wouldn't even want the Wizards to pick 1st to be honest. This is a draft I'd be OK picking 3rd or 4th because it takes away the guessing game a bit. You can't teach height, Clingan is 7'2'' with a 7'7'' wingspan. If you're getting Walker Kessler upside with him, that's a 24-28 minute per game type of player with A1 defense. It's not up to us to figure the rest of his game out, or how to play him, or when to play him. That's on Winger/Dawkins and the coaching staff.

How do you figure Sarr is a worse shooter than Clingan?

Clingan shoots .583 from the FT line and .250 from 3 (in just 8 total attempts all year).
Sarr shoots .707 from the FT line and .276 from 3 on 3.9 attempts per 36. And he is a full year younger.

But the "reasons" for Sarr over Clingan is Sarr projects to be a versatile defender who can switch, show-and-recover, trap or drop in pick-and-roll coverage. That type of defensive versatility is what is necessary to advance in the playoffs. Drop coverage is fine to win you regular season games against middling opponents, but it tends not to work against the more talented teams who have A-List playmakers handling the ball.

And I'm not killing Clingan. I think he will be very good at what he is: a drop coverage big who will be exclusively a roll man on offense. Those kinds of players are nice, they're just not that hard to obtain. It's rare to have a top 5 pick. Don't waste it on the type of player who is consistently available in free agency.

From Bullets Forever post from January, numbers might be updated now but at that time, he was 29.5% from 3, 66% from the line. Initially, he would have the same problems Clingan has now, it's 4 on 5 on offense. As of now he's a rim runner. Do you take that number one overall? In any draft? He's also 6'11'' 217. IDK...this draft is awful, Sarr looks to be 2 years away. How is he any different than Jan Vesely? Clingan at the very least gives you something to work with initially.

[dckingsfan]

Josh Giddey, a #6 overall pick, has developed very slowly and has stagnated this year.
Ousmane Dieng, a 11 overall picked, hasn't developed at all....

I don't agree about Giddey, who has become a terrific player. OTOH, you are certainly correct about Dieng.

But, this cuts both ways, nate -- e.g., OKC's other '21 pick -- Wiggins, who has already played almost 4000 minutes & who posted a .61 TS% last year & .66 TS% this year, is looking like an extremely solid player.

&, so far at least, the other OKC rookies from '22-23 (Holmgren, Jalen Williams, & Jaylin Williams) have done very well. & '23 draft pick Cason Wallace had a terrific rookie year.

Sometimes, it's hard to develop too many youngsters at once....

Everything is "hard" sometimes -- in fact... most things that produce above average results are hard all the time!

In any case, it's fair to say that either of us can find examples to support our point. I really doubt this issue can be resolved at an abstract level.

In the case of the Wizards, it's hard for me to see much choice, tbh. If we only add 2 rookies this year, that would be a sloooowww rate of change for a team that is, essentially, devoid of meaningful talent.

We have 7 veterans who seem unlikely to have significant productivity jumps in their future (Poole, Kuz, Jones, Bagley, Holmes, Shamet, Gill). Of those guys, only Kuz has much possibility to bring much talent in return.

We have 4 guys (Davis, Baldwin, Butler & Omoruyi) who are, at best, long shots even to become role-players -- at best! & it's awfully unlikely that even 2 of the 4 reach at that level.

Essentially, that leaves Coulibaly, Avdija, Kispert & Vukcevic as our entire talent base for the future. Better than nothing, but... not much all the same!

I think this is what Doc was describing as well... add three new players vs. two until you have something and then add two.

I was on with the "you can add too many youngsters" mantra as well. But... I think he effectively disabused me of that notion.

Another way to say what you are saying. If we have 4 assets to build on and we hit on 1 of 3 going forward... well then, we are ready to compete in 3 years (7 person rotation).

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Josh Giddey, a #6 overall pick, has developed very slowly and has stagnated this year.
Ousmane Dieng, a 11 overall picked, hasn't developed at all....

I don't agree about Giddey, who has become a terrific player. OTOH, you are certainly correct about Dieng.

But, this cuts both ways, nate -- e.g., OKC's other '21 pick -- Wiggins, who has already played almost 4000 minutes & who posted a .61 TS% last year & .66 TS% this year, is looking like an extremely solid player.

&, so far at least, the other OKC rookies from '22-23 (Holmgren, Jalen Williams, & Jaylin Williams) have done very well. & '23 draft pick Cason Wallace had a terrific rookie year.

Sometimes, it's hard to develop too many youngsters at once....

Everything is "hard" sometimes -- in fact... most things that produce above average results are hard all the time!

In any case, it's fair to say that either of us can find examples to support our point. I really doubt this issue can be resolved at an abstract level.

In the case of the Wizards, it's hard for me to see much choice, tbh. If we only add 2 rookies this year, that would be a sloooowww rate of change for a team that is, essentially, devoid of meaningful talent.

We have 7 veterans who seem unlikely to have significant productivity jumps in their future (Poole, Kuz, Jones, Bagley, Holmes, Shamet, Gill). Of those guys, only Kuz has much possibility to bring much talent in return.

We have 4 guys (Davis, Baldwin, Butler & Omoruyi) who are, at best, long shots even to become role-players -- at best! & it's awfully unlikely that even 2 of the 4 reach at that level.

Essentially, that leaves Coulibaly, Avdija, Kispert & Vukcevic as our entire talent base for the future. Better than nothing, but... not much all the same!

Wiggins flew under the radar. I think it had something to do with his height measuring only 6'4" when his listed height as a Maryland Terrapin was 6'6".

Wiggins was not the best player on his college team, BTW.

Take a look at Jalen Smith's minutes. Could he help the Wizards?

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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

doclinkin, one of my sons weighed 197 lbs in middle school. He is strong. He is quick. He played goalie on his youth soccer team. People said he would be a D-1 football player. A former NFL player who I know well raved about my son's build.

I totally committed my time and resources to putting my son on the path for future success. But during practice time, it was if my son's mind was a thousand miles away. Others ran. He walked. Some have a mean streak. He has a passive streak. He rebelled in a sparky way, starting at around 12. My efforts were for naught.

About a dozen years have passed since I last saw my son. The court system took him away. He went with his mother to Georgia. Now he's somewhere homeless.

What does this have to do with McGee? Ironically, when Javale came to Hawaii, KENDALL got his autograph. (Both my sons did.) That was his favorite player. I don't know about Javale, but I'm pretty sure my son has a cognitive issue. Everyone doesn't process reality the same way.

I hope I haven't said too much.

Sent from my SM-A146U using RealGM mobile app

Before I had a child of my own, I loved this, after I had my son (turning 8 this month) I loved this even more, though at times bittersweetly:

Kahlil Gibran on Children:

"And a woman who held a babe against her bosom said, Speak to us of Children.
And he said:
Your children are not your children.
They are the sons and daughters of Life’s longing for itself.
They come through you but not from you,
And though they are with you yet they belong not to you.

You may give them your love but not your thoughts,
For they have their own thoughts.
You may house their bodies but not their souls,
For their souls dwell in the house of tomorrow, which you cannot visit, not even in your dreams....."

So beautiful.

So true.

Thanks, Consiglieri

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[NatP4]

Partizan won their series today, so the ABA finals will be as expected: Partizan vs Red Star. Starting with game 1 on Monday. Both Euroleague clubs, high level competition, 16 NBA draft picks across both rosters.

Topic probably won’t play much. He’s basically been the 3rd PG in the rotation, playing an off-ball complimentary role with Red Star. Still good to see him still playing against high level competition in May.

Wish we could send Vukcevic back to Partizan to play in what will be a great series. When he actually got minutes with Partizan, he put up absurd offensive numbers.

[NatP4]

I really think Dadiet is a big time prospect. Very unpolished as a playmaker, but big time scoring upside. Yesterday, another good showing: 11 points on 5 shots (3-3 from 3) in 15 minutes.

Last 10 games per 36:

17.5 points 6.3 rebounds 1.7 assists 1.0 steals 2.1 turnovers 51/40/73 shooting splits 62% TS

Last 5 games per 36:

21.0 points 7.9 rebounds 1.2 assists 1.6 steals 2.7 turnovers 62/43/78 shooting splits 73.7% TS

Turns 19 end of July, playing in a pro league. Reminding me of Bilal from last year. Exploding late. Don’t think he’ll even be there at #26.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

We're killing Clingan here, yes the FT% is a concern, limited offensively, etc. I get it. But Castle can't shoot, Sarr is a worse shooter but we're calling him the top pick for reasons.

Topic has defensive and shooting issues. Sheppard, I've already made my feelings known on him. Dillingham is small, Holland for a guard shot 68% from the line.

It's a bad draft, I wouldn't even want the Wizards to pick 1st to be honest. This is a draft I'd be OK picking 3rd or 4th because it takes away the guessing game a bit. You can't teach height, Clingan is 7'2'' with a 7'7'' wingspan. If you're getting Walker Kessler upside with him, that's a 24-28 minute per game type of player with A1 defense. It's not up to us to figure the rest of his game out, or how to play him, or when to play him. That's on Winger/Dawkins and the coaching staff.

How do you figure Sarr is a worse shooter than Clingan?

Clingan shoots .583 from the FT line and .250 from 3 (in just 8 total attempts all year).
Sarr shoots .707 from the FT line and .276 from 3 on 3.9 attempts per 36. And he is a full year younger.

But the "reasons" for Sarr over Clingan is Sarr projects to be a versatile defender who can switch, show-and-recover, trap or drop in pick-and-roll coverage. That type of defensive versatility is what is necessary to advance in the playoffs. Drop coverage is fine to win you regular season games against middling opponents, but it tends not to work against the more talented teams who have A-List playmakers handling the ball.

And I'm not killing Clingan. I think he will be very good at what he is: a drop coverage big who will be exclusively a roll man on offense. Those kinds of players are nice, they're just not that hard to obtain. It's rare to have a top 5 pick. Don't waste it on the type of player who is consistently available in free agency.

Yeah, I'm seeing Clingan mocked to the Wizards quite a lot. I do like Clingan, I think he'd be a good player to throw at guys like Joker & Embiid.. But I just don't know he fits with this team that wants to build a team with pace and position-flex. I think that need can be filled with a 3rd center off the bench like Alex Len. I mean after this past season, it appears this management team doesn't exactly seem to consider the center position a high priority. Look at OKC as a model.

Clingan reminds me of Greg Ostertag. And. I just think the speed and athleticism of today's NBA would expose him. Plus my other concern is he has had foot issues, and a player his size and weight that is not something you want to hear. That's something that rarely goes away or gets better, it usually only gets worse, and can completely derail the career of a big man.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I really think Dadiet is a big time prospect. Very unpolished as a playmaker, but big time scoring upside. Yesterday, another good showing: 11 points on 5 shots (3-3 from 3) in 15 minutes.

Last 10 games per 36:

17.5 points 6.3 rebounds 1.7 assists 1.0 steals 2.1 turnovers 51/40/73 shooting splits 62% TS

Last 5 games per 36:

21.0 points 7.9 rebounds 1.2 assists 1.6 steals 2.7 turnovers 62/43/78 shooting splits 73.7% TS

Turns 19 end of July, playing in a pro league. Reminding me of Bilal from last year. Exploding late. Don’t think he’ll even be there at #26.

Yeah, he's already starting to move up boards , and we haven't even gotten to the combine and workouts. His physical attributes and skill set at his age, he's just going to keep rising. Especially in a draft like this.

[NatP4]

Yeah, he's already starting to move up boards , and we haven't even gotten to the combine and workouts. His physical attributes and skill set at his age, he's just going to keep rising. Especially in a draft like this.

Agreed. Saw KOC has him at #24, think he ends up somewhere in the 8-13 range. Bilal went #8, Ousmane Dieng went #11. Dadiet is a prospect that I would absolutely move Kuzma for.

Looks like Ulm has one more regular season game and then a mid-seed in the playoffs. Should face some really good competition.

[Wiz99]

I'd argue McGee did maximize his potential.

I think McGee and Kwame Brown both did well with what they had. Everyone isn't motivated with the same idea of success. What others see as their potential might not be what they aspire to. I don't think McGee aspired to be great. Another factor is aptitude. Some people are bad at math. Others can't dance. Just because a player has standout measurables and athleticism, it doesn't mean they have the aptitude to successfully apply skill on the court.

McGee was briefly out of the league between Philadelphia and Denver. He came back and played on championship teams. Kwame played 14 years. Neither guy was sharp. IMO. Both knew enough to show up over time.

doclinkin, sorry for hijacking your thread. I totally agree with you. McGee didn't achieve

Lol not my thread. (Now I know I need to stop posting for a day or two).

McGee was so disappointing because he was deficient in the things his mom (and aunt) were so damned good at. Tough under the basket, fierce in the paint, gritty play. Championship mindset whether at USC or the Olympics. Focus. BBIQ. Determination.

He was raised to be a basketball god. But decided he'd rather not. Didn't really care as much as all that, just was in it for a good time. The original Shaqtin' a Fool all-star.

But one thing he did do was stand up to a bully. Shaq went hard at that young man's livelihood and, in a way, his family.

McGee is in the league still.

He has as many rings as Shaq.

Shaq-tin a Fool was no longer funny about Javale. Even Charles Barkley told Shaq to pump the breaks.

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Bullies are a-holes. Shaq’s an a-hole.

[Wiz99]

Clingan is the only one in the top 10 of that mock draft that has a chance to play day one in the NBA. He's already there defensively, and Dat, as much as I respect your NBA draft knowledge, he's got a higher upside than Hartenstein. I liked the fact that from his first to second year, his FT% jumped from 51% to 58%. That to me shows he was working on his game, and he can only improve from there. Do we need him to be a 3 point shooter? Gobert is a walking 14 and 12. That's his ceiling IMO.

Everyone else in that top 10 either can't shoot or has a athleticism issues.

I don't care if our draft pick is NBA-ready on Day One. In fact, I actually prefer that he NOT be NBA-ready on Day One to ensure tanking next year. What matters to me is long term upside and Clingan's long term upside is one of the lowest among all the guys discussed in the top 10.

I disagree that his upside is Gobert. Gobert is on the short list for greatest defenders of all time. Gobert is much more mobile than Clingan with an even longer wingspan. Clingan looks more like Zubak to me. Zubac is good in a specific scheme with the right defensive guards around him, but a drop coverage center has limited versatility. They can put up good overall regular season defensive production, but they lack the versatility to defend good teams with the elite on-ball scorers in the playoffs.

Then throw in the fact that Clingan is such a limited offensive player it is easy to see how he can get run off the floor against the right matchup. If you have a sturdy PF who can shoot, you can go small and play him off the floor, like what often happens to even Rudy Gobert.

Basically, I think Clingan pans out to be an average starting center, but nothing more than that. You can get a guy like that every offseason in free agency. Hartenstein and Claxton are available this year for instance. Capela and Zubac will be available next year. Mitchell Robinson the year after. In most cases (except perhaps with Hartenstein) their existing teams will not match an offer significantly more than the MLE.

If we took Clingan, I can't even express how colossally disappointed I'd be. I don't like anything about this draft and I'd trade out if I could with both picks, but Clingan is worse than trading out, he's taking a guy with little ceiling, and a subterranean risk at floor. Hell no to taking him.

The good news is I can't see us taking him, I simply can't see this FO looking at this 15ish win roster, and thinking Clingan is a long term answer to anything.


Additionally man, the rate at which I draw slot 5 or 6 for us in the lottery sim is ridiculous. I cannot believe we are using these rules, who, anywhere, thought it was a good idea to make it harder for bad teams to get better?!?! and easier for good teams to get better even faster?!?! Just insanity.

Welcome to 21st century America. We bail out the winners, not the losers, and the gap between the two keeps getting bigger and bigger.