2024 Draft Thread - Part II

[dckingsfan]

I hope San Antonio takes Clingan and Sheppard. They're going to go from 20 wins to like 60 overnight. Wemby is so good he can play with anyone. Would be hilarious to watch teams try to score on a front line that averages 7 feet, all good defenders.

Disagree on Clingan for the Spurs. Their offense is going to really hum as a 5 out drive and kick machine if they use Wemby as C. I think shooting is really important for them, I’d go with Sheppard and Risacher or Buzelis

Agreed. I'm not sure if they should go with Sheppard or Dillingham though. Dillingham's penetration ability can be maximized in a 5-out scheme whereas 5-out helps Sheppard less. Also, if anyone can compensate for the defensive inadequacies of Dillingham, it's Wemby. Topic also works for them.

I like Sheppard with Detroit. He can provide spacing on Day 1 for them as they run the offense through Cade. And as Sheppard improves his PG game, he can help take the load off of Cade.

Sheppard also fits fairly well with us if you assume we will still have Poole, Deni and Kuzma handing a lot of pick and roll initiation..

Topic would be ugly for the rest of the league. Someone who can reliably get in the lane along with Wemby would be a nightmare to defend. I am truly worried he is going to fall to the Spurs.

My 1/2 cent.

[Zonkerbl]

Isn't youth potentially a 2 edged sword though?
You need to be patient with younger players and work harder at developing them
but you could be using part of the 4 year guaranteed window you have them for
waiting for them to figure it out. There's no guarantee you will have them beyond 4 years.

Players like Knecht and Kolek may not get much better physically, but they are probably
better positioned, mentally and by experience, to contribute sooner. Like Jaquez was.

That said, I'm not arguing that you shouldn't, in general, consider youth to be a strength
when looking at a prospect but just noting that there could be a drawback.

I used to like late draft upperclassmen more than the phenoms at the top of the draft for exactly that reason: you get production early, better value for production ratio. But I read a Sloan Sports Conference/MIT paper analyzing the best of the best, which determined that the surest mark of top level success is for a player to show it early. That is the players who show skill younger had a higher top end and were more likely to develop further. This applied primarily to players whose stats show up in box scores though, not just those who show athletic talent. The earlier you show the ability to help your team win, the greater the upside. Late bloomers exist, there are Giannis and Paul George types, and Bigs tend to take longer to season, but in general looking for the combination of youth and productivity can be an asset for a team that is able to develop them. If they develop slow then you can lock them into a Deni contract and benefit from their peak at a discount rate.

NILs will solve this problem - no more being forced to draft 17 year olds and then lose them right when they start to produce. Full impact won't be felt for a few seasons yet

But we're feeling the impact now - this year's top five picks all probably decided to stay at school this year

[NatP4]

Dawkins was promoted to scouting coordinator in 2011-2012. OKC 1st round draft picks in that time:

2012:
28: Perry Jones

2013:
12: Steven Adams
26: Andre Roberson

2014:
21: Mitch McGary
29: Josh Huestis

2015:
14: Cam Payne

2016:
11: Domantis Sabonis

2017:
21: Terrence Ferguson

2018:
None

2019:
23: Darius Bazley

2020:
17: Aleksej Pokusevski

2021:
6: Josh Giddey
18: Tre Mann

2022:
2: Chet Holmgren
11: Ousmane Dieng
12: Jalen Williams

11 players out of the NCAA, 4 international, 1 out of high school (Bazley). Guys like Sabonis and Adams probably would’ve stayed overseas in today’s landscape.

[NatP4]

Topic would be ugly for the rest of the league. Someone who can reliably get in the lane along with Wemby would be a nightmare to defend. I am truly worried he is going to fall to the Spurs.

My 1/2 cent.

Don’t know much about Sam Vecenie/how reliable, but he claims he called around to some league execs, and no one is concerned about the Topic injury.

Still think he’s going #2.

[dckingsfan]

Topic would be ugly for the rest of the league. Someone who can reliably get in the lane along with Wemby would be a nightmare to defend. I am truly worried he is going to fall to the Spurs.

My 1/2 cent.

Don’t know much about Sam Vecenie/how reliable, but he claims he called around to some league execs, and no one is concerned about the Topic injury.

Still think he’s going #2.

Makes me feel a bit better... but, I just have this feeling.

[Dat2U]

I'm admittedly struggling with Nikola Topic. I have questions but I can't dismiss him either just yet.

I love his age. I love his aggression. I love his passing.

I'm unsure about his jumper. It doesn't look terrible but I don't see any shot versatility.

He has no middle game. No floaters or runners.

His handle is basic for a PG (not dissimilar from Reed Sheppard). Most of his drives are straight line drives. I don't see him chaining moves together.

He's a walking paint touch overseas. I'm unsure if that translates against NBA comp.

Weird frame. Long torso, short legs. Is he an injury risk?

[NatP4]

Topic would be ugly for the rest of the league. Someone who can reliably get in the lane along with Wemby would be a nightmare to defend. I am truly worried he is going to fall to the Spurs.

My 1/2 cent.

Don’t know much about Sam Vecenie/how reliable, but he claims he called around to some league execs, and no one is concerned about the Topic injury.

Still think he’s going #2.

Makes me feel a bit better... but, I just have this feeling.

Oh, come on. You’ve watched plenty Topic this year. He’s absolutely going to end up in SAS and form a dominant 2 man game with Wemby that terrorizes the league for the next 15 years.

[DCZards]

Topic sounds a lot like LaMelo Ball as a playmaker and ballhandler, which is a good thing. My biggest concern is his defense. He’s considered an unathletic, below average defender. That’s a major red flag for me.

[J-Ves]

Right now my big board looks like:

1. Sarr
2. Sheppard

These two guys are the only players I view as having a high floor and a reasonably high ceiling. Every other prospect has a high floor or a high ceiling but not both. Sheppard won’t be Curry but he can be Curry-lite if things work out which probably translates to an uber efficient 20 ppg as a starting PG

[NatP4]

2: Topic, Clingan, Sheppard

26: Dadiet, Simpson, Holmes

I’d be looking to move up/buy into the earlier 2nd round, but 2nd round I like Djurisic, Karaban, Chomche, Mogbo, and Toppin.

[TGW]

MODS: is it possible to add a poll (with revoting allowed) to this thread?

[NatP4]

I will agree. To be honest he looks nothing like a 2nd round pick. I see him ranked in the 50s & below but on film he's looks like a 1st rd lock, shall I say, Luka-lite. I'd say he's my new favorite at 26.

I see major upside with two major questions: shooting and defense.

30% from 3 in 3 full seasons with Mega. 73% from FT. Don’t see any reason why he won’t improve the shooting, his form looks great.

His defense is stupid bad. Doesn’t try at all or seem to care whatsoever about that end. His defensive rating is unbelievably terrible. It’s not for any lack of physical ability. Could just be because he’s playing for a Serbian league development team. Wouldn’t surprise me if he comes over and tries more against better competition.

[tontoz]

MODS: is it possible to add a poll (with revoting allowed) to this thread?

I think you would have to create a separate thread for that.

[Rafael122]

I need a "freak trait." Bilal had/has it, the hands, wingspan, length, athleticism, etc. Topic doesn't have that trait IMO. He looks like he's in that Goran Dragic mold, and its...eh.

[DCZards]

But I'm not buying him as a great shooter just based on a 3 point drill at the combine-
* He shot terribly during real games in real conditions- 27%. Granted, it was a sample size of 75 shots, but still... There's a massive difference between shooting in practice and shooting in front of defenders and fans. Almost not even the same thing.

Agree that shooting without defenders in front of you is a far cry from the real thing. But the fact that Castle excelled at all of the combine’s shooting drills shows that his shot is not broken.

That gives me a great deal of confidence in his ability to improve his shooting….especially when you factor in his reportedly great work ethic.

Castle has all the other tools: size and length, playmaking, high IQ, great defense.

Assuming Sarr is gone, I’m squarely on the fence between Holland and Castle. I like Holland’s athleticism, slashing ability, defense and max effort.

[AFM]

I'd take Goran Dragic in this draft though.

[doclinkin]

I need a "freak trait." Bilal had/has it, the hands, wingspan, length, athleticism, etc. Topic doesn't have that trait IMO. He looks like he's in that Goran Dragic mold, and its...eh.

Have you seen Topić's neck? It's carnival sideshow freaky.

[Dat2U]

But I'm not buying him as a great shooter just based on a 3 point drill at the combine-
* He shot terribly during real games in real conditions- 27%. Granted, it was a sample size of 75 shots, but still... There's a massive difference between shooting in practice and shooting in front of defenders and fans. Almost not even the same thing.

Agree that shooting without defenders in front of you is a far cry from the real thing. But the fact that Castle excelled at all of the combine’s shooting drills shows that his shot is not broken.

That gives me a great deal of confidence in his ability to improve his shooting….especially when you factor in his reportedly great work ethic.

Castle has all the other tools: size and length, playmaking, high IQ, great defense.

Assuming Sarr is gone, I’m squarely on the fence between Holland and Castle. I like Holland’s athleticism, slashing ability, defense and max effort.

Huh, hitting shots in an open gym with no one guarding him gives you a great deal of confidence?

I prefer real live game play. I prefer seeing instinctive on court reactions vs defenses such as him hesitating when wide open. That tells me a helluva lot more than pressure free shots with no one guarding you.

[closg00]

Tanking for Topic, I just can't get on-board with the idea, the knee thing puts him in the Hell No category for me.

[DCZards]

But I'm not buying him as a great shooter just based on a 3 point drill at the combine-
* He shot terribly during real games in real conditions- 27%. Granted, it was a sample size of 75 shots, but still... There's a massive difference between shooting in practice and shooting in front of defenders and fans. Almost not even the same thing.

Agree that shooting without defenders in front of you is a far cry from the real thing. But the fact that Castle excelled at all of the combine’s shooting drills shows that his shot is not broken.

That gives me a great deal of confidence in his ability to improve his shooting….especially when you factor in his reportedly great work ethic.

Castle has all the other tools: size and length, playmaking, high IQ, great defense.

Assuming Sarr is gone, I’m squarely on the fence between Holland and Castle. I like Holland’s athleticism, slashing ability, defense and max effort.

Huh, hitting shots in an open gym with no one guarding him gives you a great deal of confidence?

I prefer real live game play. I prefer seeing instinctive on court reactions vs defenses such as him hesitating when wide open. That tells me a helluva lot more than pressure free shots with no one guarding you.

Did you read my first sentence? Or did you just ignore it?

And I’m not buying this hesitation to shoot stuff. Castle didn’t hesitate to shoot (and make) 3s when they left him open at the outset of a Final Four game with 60,000 people in attendance.

And, yes, I believe the 19 yr old Castle can improve as a shooter. As many other players have.