The RealGM Wizards Board Draft Thread 2008/2009

[dobrojim]

I don't think Chad Ford should ever be cited in this thread. It doesnt help your argument.

Sure as hell has more credibility than you and me. He scouts these guys as a living.

wait. I thought Ford was a journalist. He's not a scout AFAIK. He may be better
informed but that doesn't necessarily mean his judgment is any better.

[nate33]

I want Bosh, but with Matrix there now, no way they drop him if they think they can keep him. And they're thick in finesse bigs so not the best partner. Tawn (or Caron) are no real upgrade from Marion.

Marion might just be a 3-month rental. His contract expires this summer. Marion could be part of the rebuilding plan. Assuming they suck for the remainder of the season, Toronto would seriously consider attaching Kapono to Bosh in exchange for some picks, prospects and cap relief.

Unfortunately, I don't see us getting involved in a Bosh deal. There's no way Abe can pay Butler, Jamison and Bosh, and I don't see a way to unload Jamison in the Bosh trade.

[Ed Wood]

I can tell you easily that Omri is a much better athlete than Nocioni, his moves reminds me a little bit of Kevin Durant, but not so good shooter, anyway, Omri's not ready for NBA, needs to gain maturity, he has flashes of a very good player, but that's only flashes, at this moment .

You're right, the Nocioni comparison is selling Omri short on athleticism. I guess I was trying to convey his sassy on-court demeanor. He's also unlike Nocioni because his tweenerdom is the result of having some ability to play power forward rather than being pretty slow for a perimeter player. He's certainly more NBA ready than Montie is, but the advantage to both as second round picks is that you don't have to bring them over right away, they'd have a year or two in Europe before seeing minutes for Washington.

[doclinkin]

Ford ain't much, mostly. He's you or me, but with a paycheck. He got his job because he was one of the first to create essentially a blog talking about basketball, ESPN hired him because they were trying out online content and needed people who could churn it out. Later when execs were startled that anyone actually cared about what he thought they learned of his use as a mouthpiece to disseminate disinformation. Around draft time anything that you hear Chad reporting as insider info is generally a smokescreen, or via reverse psychology a half truth masquerading as a smokescreen, to obfuscate your real intent. He's just a keyboard joe who's paid to have an opinion, and parlayed it into a sweet deal flying around the world to watch basketball games. BUt it's not like any team ever offered him money to run an analysis of their squad, or track their statistics, or whatnot. Not like he has real insight & critical assessment skills. He's wrong 50/50. Plenty of posters on here luck into a better ratio than that.

[doclinkin]

I want Bosh, but with Matrix there now, no way they drop him if they think they can keep him. And they're thick in finesse bigs so not the best partner. Tawn (or Caron) are no real upgrade from Marion.

Marion might just be a 3-month rental. His contract expires this summer. Marion could be part of the rebuilding plan. Assuming they suck for the remainder of the season, Toronto would seriously consider attaching Kapono to Bosh in exchange for some picks, prospects and cap relief.

Unfortunately, I don't see us getting involved in a Bosh deal. There's no way Abe can pay Butler, Jamison and Bosh, and I don't see a way to unload Jamison in the Bosh trade.

No. Or maybe not. But if Matrix plans to leave I can see something around a swap of CB's (CB3 for CB4) much as it pains me. I know Torontofan in the aggregate loves Caron. Dunno if we can stack up enough salaries to match, but... eh prob'ly a pipe dream anyway. I'm just thinking the blog possibilities are phenomenal (though naturally we'd have to draw Mo Almond as well, and really nerd out with the internets).

[Rafael122]

I still wouldn't write Ford completely off though. I don't take his stuff as Gospel, but I mean..he's been doing this for years, literally going to Europe or Israel or wherever the hell he goes, and he sees these people in person.

And about all the rumors, isn't that pretty much guaranteed for ANY professional draft? Look at how many rumors pop out for the NFL Draft.

[closg00]

Re: Ford

Yeah, it's true that GM's use Ford to spread disinformation, but with all disinformation, there is some truth mixed in there as-well. He does have his "sources" and he does get some "inside" info. Also,
he gets paid to watch a lot of hoops and write about prospects so his column is worth reading FWIW.

[dobrojim]

on this whole Curry thing (I LOVE Indian or Thai!) but seriously

Conventional wisdom seems to be he has no chance to be a defender
of the caliber that would help the team and therefore even if he were
the next Pete Maravich, we should pass on him. His size appears to be the
main "proof" of that.

My own view is that the future of our defense is VASTLY more
dependent on who we get as coach then on any player we might
draft or trade for. So I don't look past the positives of Curry
just because he's not expected to be a great defender.

So as much as I've hated our porous D for the last umpteen years,
I don't at all mind the idea of getting Curry. The guy is a crazy sick
shot maker in big games and situations. His intangibles are off the charts.
And even if Gil comes back, he'd be a big help with improving our 3 ball threat
which right now sucks monkey gonads.

I'd actually love to get him and use the following 4 G rotation: Zero, Critt, Curry, N1.

re the Dixon comparison - Doc may have already covered this but while Dixon
was a great college player and played big in a lot of big games, Curry is at
another level beyond that...29 ppg! while the Ds are trying to load up on him.
I hope his ankle heals fast. We'll see what happens in the NCAAs.
Ideally, we draft Griffin at #1 and smile. But I wouldn't mind Curry at all,
especially if we trade down and pick up other assets/unload liabilities in
the process.

re the cap - if it shrinks, aren't all teams going to be in the same boat?
It's not like we're the only team right up against the current cap/lux tax.

[nate33]

I'm looking at trade partners, and don't see many great drop-down options

I think there are lots of options. The key is to have the draft rights for Thabeet. The Timberwolves, Raptors, Pacers and Bulls are picking 7, 8, 9 and 11 respectively (as of now). All of them could use a center. If we end up with the #3 or so pick and have Thabeet on the board, the trade down possibilities are numerous.

Basically, we'd be looking to package Songaila and/or Stevenson for 2010 contracts, preferably of a pretty good player, while hopefully getting a little extra cap relief with the 125% Exemption. We'd also save a little by paying Curry much less than Thabeet.

Minnesota trade:

Washington trades: Songaila + James + #3
Minnesota trades: M.Miller + #7

We save $1.1M in 09/10 salary plus another $1.3M in the draft pick's salary which might get us out of the luxtax. And we shave off $4.8M in 2010/11 salary (plus about $1.4M in the draft pick's salary) to give us enough luxtax room to resign Haywood.


Toronto trade:

Washington trades: Songaila + #3
Toronto trades: #8.

Toronto will be under the cap this summer if they let Marion walk so they can absorb the salary. This trade helps us avoid the luxtax in each of the next 2 seasons.


Chicago trade:

Washington trades: Stevenson + Songaila + James + #3
Chicago trades: Hughes + #11

We save $1.2M next year plus $8.9M the year after plus about $2M each year in the salary difference between the #3 pick and the #11 pick.


None of these trades are particularly inspiring from our standpoint. We'd all like to believe we will utilize the high pick to get a stud player. But if Griffin is gone, I could totally understand EG pulling off one of these cap-saving deals. If such a deal gets us out of the luxtax in each of the next two seasons, it could save Abe more than $20M. It might also mean we get to resign Haywood in 2010. Considering the relatively mild dropoff from Thabeet to Curry, they're all deals I could live with.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

DeJuan Blair's per-40 adjusted stats are at 24.1 points and 19.3 rebounds.

Code: Select all

Basic Statistics Per 40 Pace Adjusted
Pts  FG   FGA  FG% 2Pt  2PtA   2P% FTM FTA FT%  Off Def  TOT  Ast Stl Blk TO

24.1 10.2 16.9 60.0 10.2 16.9 60.0 3.8 6.5 58.0 9.1 10.2 19.3 1.8 2.7 1.2 1.7
 

[Rafael122]

Nate - also the Thunder are a possibility. I don't think they have a true center on their roster, and they have 5, count them, 5 first round draft picks in the next 2 years.

I would gladly trade them our first round pick if its not number one plus players for at least 3 of those 5 draft picks.

That would give us, presumably, 4 first round picks in the next 2 years.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Code: Select all

 
Basic Statistics Per 40 Pace Adjusted
Pts FG  FGA  FG%  2Pt 2PtA  2P%  FTM FTA  FT% Off  Def  TOT Asts Stls Blks TOs
26.4 9.8 15.3 63.8 9.6 15.0 64.1 6.7 11.4 59.2 4.1 12.3 16.5 2.9 1.5  1.6  3.8
 

Blake Griffin totals out at 26.4 and 16.5 per-40 FWIW.

[Dat2U]

Nate - also the Thunder are a possibility. I don't think they have a true center on their roster, and they have 5, count them, 5 first round draft picks in the next 2 years.

I would gladly trade them our first round pick if its not number one plus players for at least 3 of those 5 draft picks.

That would give us, presumably, 4 first round picks in the next 2 years.

Bleh, what's the point of adding marginal draft picks when we've already got plenty of marginal young talent on the roster?

I don't think trading for a bunch of future draft picks does us much good. We need help now.

I guess my question now is, with Thabeet playing so well lately, has he become the clear cut #2 pick?

[Rafael122]

Dat - Trade the pick to acquire more picks, and then use the picks as bait to get rid of bad contracts. Phoenix did that with Kurt Thomas I believe.

And yeah, I think Thabeet is the number two guy now. It took awhile b/c I had him on a list with guys like Monroe, Harden, etc, but he's clearly established himself as the best player available after Blake Griffin.

After that I'd go with Harden, Hill, and Monroe. Those are my top 5.

[barelyawake]

Nate - also the Thunder are a possibility. I don't think they have a true center on their roster, and they have 5, count them, 5 first round draft picks in the next 2 years.

And you get Joe Smith and Des Mas to boot. If you can get those guys (and resign them cheap) and get rid of alot of the dead weight on our roster, you're actually doing quite a bit already. Not close to enough, but it makes our bench look MUCH better.

[nate33]

DeJuan Blair's per-40 adjusted stats are at 24.1 points and 19.3 rebounds.

Code: Select all

Basic Statistics Per 40 Pace Adjusted
Pts  FG   FGA  FG% 2Pt  2PtA   2P% FTM FTA FT%  Off Def  TOT  Ast Stl Blk TO

24.1 10.2 16.9 60.0 10.2 16.9 60.0 3.8 6.5 58.0 9.1 10.2 19.3 1.8 2.7 1.2 1.7
 

That stat that gets me is the 9.1 offensive boards.

Seriously, how can a man average 9.1 offensive boards per 40? That doesn't even make sense.

[dobrojim]

in the dark

who is Des Mas?

[nate33]

^
Desmond Mason.

[nate33]

Code: Select all

 
Basic Statistics Per 40 Pace Adjusted
Pts FG  FGA  FG%  2Pt 2PtA  2P%  FTM FTA  FT% Off  Def  TOT Asts Stls Blks TOs
26.4 9.8 15.3 63.8 9.6 15.0 64.1 6.7 11.4 59.2 4.1 12.3 16.5 2.9 1.5  1.6  3.8
 

Blake Griffin totals out at 26.4 and 16.5 per-40 FWIW.

Don't overlook that Griffin shoots a whopping 11.4 FTs per game. He's clearly a much more potent offensive threat, even if his PPG and FG% is only modestly higher than Blair's.

The thing about Blair that is overlooked are his steals per game. He's like Ben Wallace out there with his ability to disrupt the passing lanes with his quick hands. On the other hand, he is short and not particularly athletic. Is he the next Reggie Evans or the next Wes Unseld?

[Ruzious]

Code: Select all

 
Basic Statistics Per 40 Pace Adjusted
Pts FG  FGA  FG%  2Pt 2PtA  2P%  FTM FTA  FT% Off  Def  TOT Asts Stls Blks TOs
26.4 9.8 15.3 63.8 9.6 15.0 64.1 6.7 11.4 59.2 4.1 12.3 16.5 2.9 1.5  1.6  3.8
 

Blake Griffin totals out at 26.4 and 16.5 per-40 FWIW.

Don't overlook that Griffin shoots a whopping 11.4 FTs per game. He's clearly a much more potent offensive threat, even if his PPG and FG% is only modestly higher than Blair's.

The thing about Blair that is overlooked are his steals per game. He's like Ben Wallace out there with his ability to disrupt the passing lanes with his quick hands. On the other hand, he is short and not particularly athletic. Is he the next Reggie Evans or the next Wes Unseld?

I like that Blair gets so few turnovers. With 3.9 combined steals and blocks per pace adjusted 40 and only 1.7 to's - along with his 19 rebounds - he is Mr. Possession. With him on your team, you get lots more chances. Play him and Blatche or Griffin together.