Long Term Plan? (merged threads)

[LyricalRico]

Hey, Jamison and Butler looked good tonight at SF and SG respectively. Let's see if that lineup gets results over the longterm.

[dobrojim]

With a new coach I think a new long term plan should be in order.

1.Play the right lineup.
2.Try to make the playoffs this season.
3.Let Jamison continue to play hard and lead this team, but at his new position, SF.

Tapscott said rebounding would be the key. The right lineup will rebound and defend the best. Here is the right lineup:

PG Dee Brown, SG Caron Butler, SF Antawn Jamison, PF Andray Blatche, C Javale McGee

Let Young, McGuire, and Pecherov get the bulk of the bench minutes. Make the keys to the rest of the season be getting Blatche and McGee accustomed to playing together and getting Young at least 30 minutes each game. I'm convinced that Blatche and McGee will be very effective together and that Caron CAN play SG and Antawn CAN play SF. Dee Brown grabs the long rebounds, steals the ball, runs the court and doesn't turn it over much. Put him with bigs that can dunk and rebound his bricks, and with the big two.

Trade the rest of the guys like Stevenson, Daniels,Thomas for better veterans.

Later this season, Gil replaces Dee and Brendan replaces Andray, and the Wizards are set.

My long term plan would make this team try to win 35 games and at least get close to playoff contention.

strongly agree with points 1-3.

not sure about letting Pech have "bulk" of min off the bench. That may
not be consistent with making the playoffs this year. Plus I'm not sure
I want to go to your starting lineup. Right now with McGee and Brown
our starters are OK and our bench just needs to be consistent with
N1, 'dray and DMac, unless or until they really prove to be ineffective.
Spot Songaila some min (but not at C except in very limited/restricted
situations ie NOT ROUTINELY). Also spot Juan some minutes here and
there, matchup depending obviously. EJ's weakness at rotations/matchups
might end up being a bigger weakness than even some of his harshest
critics thought. Getting hungry and guys with size and/or athleticism
could make any defense better.

Restricting Etan to spot duty might be the biggest single thing though.
As Nate pointed out in the game (or EJ fired thread, Etan's numbers
this year are off the charts terrible.

[hands11]

It's just so funny to read some poster who come so strong with their views that are wrong.

I wish this site had a search engine. If it does, mine doesn't work.

I just wish there was some way to have an integrated calculator that keeps track of this stuff and tallies it in by your SN. - LOL

You could have poll questions that are tallied to your SN. Then when something happens, the mods would update the correct answer on their side and it would tally it up. Pretty cool idea. I hope someone makes a board program that does that one day.

It would bring a whole new dimension to these kind of boards.

You would be reading this really strong view from someone saying how wrong you are, then look over to their SN. and see the 15% right rating - LMAO

CCJ has it right. Even if he was slow to the fire EJ position. But he did get in right before the deadline That was a close one ahhh CCJ?

[Ruzious]

It's just so funny to read some poster who come so strong with their views that are wrong.

I wish this site had a search engine. If it does, mine doesn't work.

I just wish there was some way to have an integrated calculator that keeps track of this stuff and tallies it in by your SN. - LOL

You could have poll questions that are tallied to your SN. Then when something happens, the mods would update the correct answer on their side and it would tally it up. Pretty cool idea. I hope someone makes a board program that does that one day.

It would bring a whole new dimension to these kind of boards.

You would be reading this really strong view from someone saying how wrong you are, then look over to their SN. and see the 15% right rating - LMAO

CCJ has it right. Even if he was slow to the fire EJ position. But he did get in right before the deadline That was a close one ahhh CCJ?

Any particular poster you're talking about their, hands? Fwiw, I have a helluvalot more respect for CCJ's posts than I do for yours.

[klemen4]

Today I took time to make a deep look into you team and was surprised that you have promising young nucleus. Ok, you over payed for both Jamison and Arenas but the future looks bright.


ARENAS(26)/BROWN(24)
STEVENSON(27)/YOUNG(23)
BUTLER(28)/MCGUIRE(23)
JAMISON(32)/BLATCHE(22)/SONGAILA(30)
HAYWOOD(29)/MCGEE(20)/PECHEROV(23)

THOMAS(30), DANIELS(33), DIXON(30)

As I look the roster you are very deep under the boards, but thin at pg/sg...Thomas and Daniels luckly expire by 2010, Dixon has no future here. Also it looks there is no minutes for Songaila left.
As a lot of teams want to get under the cap for 2010, Washington could get something out of this trading Thomas, Daniels for a very good player, the best on sg position.

Maybe a package of Daniels, Thomas + Young for Vince Carter.

ARENAS
CARTER
BUTLER
JAMISON
HAYWOOD

With the right coach I would put this team right behind Boston, Cleveland and Detroit.

From Boston fan.

[nate33]

Thanks.

This should probably be merged into the Long Term Plan thread.

[nate33]

It's way too early to get too excited, but let's just say for argument's sake that Blatche just broke out and is now poised to be a consistent double-double kind of player with above-average defense - sort of a poor man's Chris Bosh averaging 17 points, 10 boards, 3 assists and 2 blocks. In that case, most of our lineup looks pretty darn good as it is. We've got:

PG: Arenas/Brown
SG: Young/Stevenson
SF: Butler/Jamison
PF: Blatche/Jamison
C: Haywood/McGee

It looks to me like our front line is set. It's a perfect combination of quality two-way players as starters with offensive firepower off the bench at forward, and D off the bench at center.

Our backcourt is close, but not quite ideal. First of all, Brown is not a quality backup PG. Ideally, we get a guy who is a great defender with PG skills who also has the size to play alongside Arenas and guard quick shooting guards. Hinrich is the kind of guy I'm thinking of, though maybe we can get a guy like Earl Watson more cheaply. The other piece we need is a SG/SF wing defender who hits open shots. Stevenson is the right kind of player but he's just not quite big enough, good enough defensively, or a good enough shooter. Here's where we need a younger version of Posey or the reincarnation of Doug Christie. Indeed, if we had a Doug Christie, we might start him and bring Young off the bench.

So maybe the focus of the offseason should be to clear some longterm salary and acquire a defensive backup PG/SG while upgrading Stevenson at backup SG/SF. We have what is likely to be a fairly high pick, plus the MEM pick, plus a bunch of 2010 contracts to help make that happen.

Any suggestions?

[StitchJones]

Outsider looking in here. How does your current lineup, even with Gil and Haywood back and an improving Blatche and Young, get you to the top of the Eastern Conference or near a championship, which is what this should all be about? Jamison, Butler and Gil are for the most part way to deficient on defense to ever get a team too far in the playoffs. I do believe there is some talent there with Blatche, Young, and a few others who are good pieces, but other than that the best move is to move Jamison, and yes even Gil out for talented young guys, expiring contracts and picks.

I say this because i think Washington is in a unique position that few teams find themselves in. You have a very bad start already that could net you a high lottery pick and you have veteran players on your team who could net you some very nice returns in a trade. Add to that a few young guys who have excellent potential to be big contributors on a championship caliber team down the road.

Long term:

Trade Jamison and Gil once he returns and proves he is back for expiring contracts, young players, picks or some mix of the three. Let Butler play out his contract if you can't get a great deal for him, as he is sufficient for now as a SF for this team. Then start adding pieces to Blatche, Young, and your young center. I'm not saying they would be your center pieces, but they are great starting points for rebuilding. As the Wizards are constructed now, they will not reach an eastern conference finals, too many guys playing big roles out of position and too many guys who can't play defense and get critical stops during the course of a game.

[LyricalRico]

It's way too early to get too excited, but let's just say for argument's sake that Blatche just broke out and is now poised to be a consistent double-double kind of player with above-average defense - sort of a poor man's Chris Bosh averaging 17 points, 10 boards, 3 assists and 2 blocks. In that case, most of our lineup looks pretty darn good as it is. We've got:

PG: Arenas/Brown
SG: Young/Stevenson
SF: Butler/Jamison
PF: Blatche/Jamison
C: Haywood/McGee

<snip>

So maybe the focus of the offseason should be to clear some longterm salary and acquire a defensive backup PG/SG while upgrading Stevenson at backup SG/SF. We have what is likely to be a fairly high pick, plus the MEM pick, plus a bunch of 2010 contracts to help make that happen.

Any suggestions?

I'm actually not all that opposed to having Stevenson as a backup guard. He's a solid ball handler, can make the open 3, and gets decent assist numbers. He's not ideal, but we could do worse. And you're right about Brown not being a guy you want in your regular rotation, although having him as a change of pace, emergency player isn't bad.

But to answer your question, I absolutely think we should pool our assets to get a third guard and a solid 2/3 who would likely only play spot minutes. Etan+AD+Pesh is over $15M in expiring contracts (assuming Pesh's option isn't picked up) and we'd have a late lottery or mid-first rounder to package with that. Ernie would have one of the more attractive draft day packages on the market next summer. Not to mention the MLE (if Abe is willing to pay the tax).

Potential combo guard targets:
Kirk Hinrich
Jamal Crawford
Javaris Crittenton
Charlie Bell
Willie Green
Leandro Barbosa
Roger Mason
Steve Blake

Potential swingman targets:
Alexander Pavlovic
Marquis Daniels
Trevor Ariza (*FA - would require Abe to approve the MLE)
Rasual Butler
John Salmons
Jason Kapono
Martell Webster

I'm not saying that I'd go for all of those guys but they seem to be the type of guys we'd be looking at.

[dobrojim]

not sure who hands is referring to either...

I had him on ignore for a while...couldn't take the loooong detailed
posts about exactly who should get how many minutes over and
over again along with the stubborn adherence to calling our
second year SG New York.



But I agree Ruz, I'd much rather read what CCJ has to say.

Someone remind us how many year did we sign 'dray for?
Was it 5? That's what I remember. Last year was
year 1 of that contract. I believe a number of us
said at the time that if he did pan out, that would
be a real bargain contract. We'll see. A quality big
for a mere 3 mil a year. Me likes.

Plus I do wonder how quickly JaVale could challenge Haywood
for the starters job at C.

ps- in the paper this morning I read how Tapps said that JaVale
may only play 20-22 min/gm...Sounds like 'dray is going to have to
learn not to commit fouls so he can play the 30ish min/gm that
would be coming to him. Plus 'drays small man skilz could bode
well as far as clearing space in the paint for guys like AJ and Caron
(and one day Gil) esp when the 2 fwds become a SF and a SG where
they would often have size advantages.

[jimij]

O
Trade Jamison and Gil once he returns and proves he is back for expiring contracts, young players, picks or some mix of the three. Let Butler play out his contract if you can't get a great deal for him, as he is sufficient for now as a SF for this team. Then start adding pieces to Blatche, Young, and your young center. I'm not saying they would be your center pieces, but they are great starting points for rebuilding. As the Wizards are constructed now, they will not reach an eastern conference finals, too many guys playing big roles out of position and too many guys who can't play defense and get critical stops during the course of a game.

Why trade Arenas or let Butler walk, they're both relatively young and can be here for the long haul. If Gil comes back healthy, why would we want to trade him? If he's not healthy, no one will take him anyway.

I'm not willing to give up on any of these guys as far as their defensive potential until they've had significant time under a different coach to prove whether or not they can play in a solid defensive system. Jordan was a lost cause on the defensive side of the ball and I'll reserve judgement on whether or not he can get players like Arenas to apply themselves to defense (Twan might be lost cause on D but I still will give him a chance).

[go'stags]

Nate, I agree completley, and I think Hinrich is by far the best option. I believe you posted a few trades to get him. Any of those would do.

As for a perimieter defending SF, I still am far from giving up on Dmac. Yea, he may never be a great shooter, but he is a good defender who will only get better with more expirience, a solid shot blocker, and a GREAT rebounder. And I believe he has some passing skills which he will eventually show as he gains confidence. And hey, maybe he develops a jumper to boot.

A rotation of Arenas, Young, Butler, Blatche, Haywood, Hinrich, D-mac, Jamison, and Mcgee with spot minutes for Songaila and a decen fourth guard would be great. Add in a decent draft pick, maybe at PG [Stephen Curry?}, and that team can cause damage, both now and in the future.

[StitchJones]

Gil defensively is out of position at PG and SG. He's not quick enough as a PG for the likes of CP3, Deron, Ford, Rose, ect and he's not big and physical enough for Rashad Lewis, Richardson, Kobe, TMac, ect. He can score, no doubt, but he's lacking defensively and looking injury prone. if he comes back healthy and looks good for a month or so, you should trade him for good young talent, a pick or two and an expiring contract. Butler might be a good fit at SF, so let him play it out and if it works out you can resign him. Jamison definitely needs to go as he is in the same predicament as Gil but at SF and PF.

You guys are in almost the exact same spot as Portland about 3-4 years ago. Gil and Jamison can get you a pretty good return in young players and high pics. You should take advantage of it and try to build a championship caliber team. If Gil comes back healthy and Haywood comes back healthy, at it's best this team is probably still only a second round caliber team. If that's good enough for you then so be it, but I think the opportunity is there to start again without having to be awful for years.

[nate33]

Potential combo guard targets:
Kirk Hinrich
Jamal Crawford
Javaris Crittenton
Charlie Bell
Willie Green
Leandro Barbosa
Roger Mason
Steve Blake

Potential swingman targets:
Alexander Pavlovic
Marquis Daniels
Trevor Ariza (*FA - would require Abe to approve the MLE)
Rasual Butler
John Salmons
Jason Kapono
Martell Webster

I'm not saying that I'd go for all of those guys but they seem to be the type of guys we'd be looking at.

If Arenas plays 36 minutes and Young 32, then we need about 28 minutes of guard play plus another 4-8 minutes of SF play. If we're going to divie up those minutes between a combo guard and a swingman, I figure we should invest decent money/assets into one real good player (capable of starting if there are injuries) for 24 minutes a night plus a somewhat cheaper reserve for 8-12 minutes a night

So among the "good" players who would probably take more assets to acquire, I see Hinrich, Crawford, Barbosa, Ariza, Salmons and Daniels. We should probably go after one of those guys, and then see if we can pick up a cheaper guy to fill the other spot.

For example: trade Daniels for Earl Watson and then use our pick to dump Stevenson and Songaila so that we can afford to sign Ariza. Watson is our cheap backup PG. Ariza is our good 24 mpg defensive swingman.

Or, acquire Hinrich by trading Stevenson, Etan and a pick and then look to pick up a cheap swingman like Pavlovic. go stags, makes a fair point that we shouldn't give up on DMac yet. He might at least improve to the level of "cheap swingman" so that we only have to worry about spending our money/assets on a good combo guard.

[Benjammin]

I am proposing this with a few assumptions: 1. Gil comes back pretty fully 2. Blatche develops enough to be a quality starting 4, allowing Jamison to be the swing forward getting around 28 minutes a game. 3. Haywood comes back to his same level of play.

I think a reasonably good risk/reward move would be to go after Vince Carter. I wouldn't sell the farm for him but if a deal something like Young, Thomas, Daniels, Memphis pick, I would go for it. NJ may not be at the point of making a deal like that. I wouldn't offer Blatche or McGee or our 2009 pick unprotected. Is there potential for it to backfire? Sure. But I think the risk is well worth the cost

What are the arguments against it?
1. Carter is just an offensive player. This is not true. He is an excellent passer and rebounder from the 2 guard and a decent defender.
2. Carter is declining in his play. So far his play has not declined. He's been quite durable the last few years. There is a concern that shooting guards over the age of thirty decline in their play, but I think his game is varied enough to continue a high level of play.
3. His salary is very high. It is high, but his last year is a team option I believe.
4. Why give up on Nick Young? I don't believe Nick Young in his prime will ever approach the play of Vince Carter now or in the next few years.
5. Let's use this money for another position. This is a reasonable argument, but if Blatche develops, then the Wizards are in good shape.
6. Carter is a selfish player, and will have bad chemistry. I don't believe that. I believe he has a relationship with Haywood and Jamison. I think he wants to win a ring like Paul Pierce, and I believe his game is multi-faceted enough to fill a variety of roles.

Of course Mr. Pollin would have to be willing to pay the luxury tax to keep the team together, and to sign free agents as needed to fill backup spots. If a better player than Carter is available that would fit our needs, then I would be for that. With four quality offensive players (Gil, Carter, Butler, Jamison) we could always have at least TWO of those guys on the court at the same time. That would be a huge advantage. Would we have enough defense on the perimeter? That might need to be addressed in the draft or free agency. At the 4 and 5 the hope would be that Haywood, Blatche, and McGee would form a strong trio.

I know that there is the specter of Mitch Richmond, but we're not trading a young Chris Webber here. I think Carter can keep up his level of play like Drexler and Pippen did, more so than Stackhouse, Richmond, and Jeff Malone did as examples.

[nate33]

Gil defensively is out of position at PG and SG. He's not quick enough as a PG for the likes of CP3, Deron, Ford, Rose, ect and he's not big and physical enough for Rashad Lewis, Richardson, Kobe, TMac, ect. He can score, no doubt, but he's lacking defensively and looking injury prone. if he comes back healthy and looks good for a month or so, you should trade him for good young talent, a pick or two and an expiring contract. Butler might be a good fit at SF, so let him play it out and if it works out you can resign him. Jamison definitely needs to go as he is in the same predicament as Gil but at SF and PF.

You guys are in almost the exact same spot as Portland about 3-4 years ago. Gil and Jamison can get you a pretty good return in young players and high pics. You should take advantage of it and try to build a championship caliber team. If Gil comes back healthy and Haywood comes back healthy, at it's best this team is probably still only a second round caliber team. If that's good enough for you then so be it, but I think the opportunity is there to start again without having to be awful for years.

StichJones, you are not listening.

Arenas will not be traded. He'll either come back healthy, in which case we all want him here. Or he'll come back at 75%, in which case he is untradable. And you are also incorrect about Arenas lacking the quickness to guard PG's. He has one of the quickest first steps in the league and the longest reach among any NBA PG. His athleticism and body type are perfect for defense. Indeed, his individual man-to-man defense is fine. He's no lockdown player and surely ultraquick guys like Iverson and Parker can get past him, but those guys can get past anybody. Arenas' defensive problems are mostly mental, not physical. He's a ball watcher and far too often lets his man drift away far enough to can an open jumper.

If it means anything to you, Arenas came back at the start of last year and played pretty good defense until he had to shut it down again because of his knee. His offense was lousy, but his defense was solid.

Trading Jamison is something we've been discussing ever since EJ was fired. I'd look carefully at any Jamison trade that brought back a younger player (28 years old or younger) who was an above-average starter or better at any position other than PG or C. Somebody like G.Wallace, Kirilenko or Battier would be great.

[nate33]

I think a reasonably good risk/reward move would be to go after Vince Carter. I wouldn't sell the farm for him but if a deal something like Young, Thomas, Daniels, Memphis pick, I would go for it. NJ may not be at the point of making a deal like that. I wouldn't offer Blatche or McGee or our 2009 pick unprotected. Is there potential for it to backfire? Sure. But I think the risk is well worth the cost

I think Blatche and McGee will be excellent players, but I still think it'll take a few more years before they reach the point of reliability and consistency. I just don't believe that we'll be ready for a title run this year or next year. So if the window of opportunity really open until the 2010/11 season, then Vince Carter is not a guy I want to invest in. By then, he'll be 34 and he will have certainly lost a step. I'm not sure if a 34-year Carter will be any better than Nick Young with 2 more years of experience under his belt.

If we're going to make a big trade, I'd target a younger player like Joe Johnson.

[Benjammin]

I think a reasonably good risk/reward move would be to go after Vince Carter. I wouldn't sell the farm for him but if a deal something like Young, Thomas, Daniels, Memphis pick, I would go for it. NJ may not be at the point of making a deal like that. I wouldn't offer Blatche or McGee or our 2009 pick unprotected. Is there potential for it to backfire? Sure. But I think the risk is well worth the cost

I think Blatche and McGee will be excellent players, but I still think it'll take a few more years before they reach the point of reliability and consistency. I just don't believe that we'll be ready for a title run this year or next year. So if the window of opportunity really open until the 2010/11 season, then Vince Carter is not a guy I want to invest in. By then, he'll be 34 and he will have certainly lost a step. I'm not sure if a 34-year Carter will be any better than Nick Young with 2 more years of experience under his belt.

If we're going to make a big trade, I'd target a younger player like Joe Johnson.

I have no problem with going after Joe Johnson, but he's going to cost a lot more. It would not be my first move, it's not a slam dunk move, but I think it's a reasonable risk to make a deal like this for Carter. I don't believe that Nick Young will become a top ten SG, but I hope I'm wrong. Of course we're not making a run this year. McGee doesn't need to develop that much to be a quality backup center. If Blatche is going to develop, assuming he gets the time, it should happen this year and next.

[AgentOvechkin08]

What would it take to get Joe Johnson...i mean i dont want to give up Nick Young, or would we have to. What about 2010 exprings?? I dont even know. Would Jamison be attractive to them? Horford is listed as a center, with Pachulia (sp) there. Somebody help me out.

[StitchJones]

Atlanta under no circumstances is looking to give up or trade Joe Johnson, he is just under elite status to them and i would agree. it's hard to find a SG who can bury the open jumper, get to the lane, handle like a point guard and play defense. Even being an allstar, I think he might be underrated for how good he is.