The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking!

[NatP4]

I would go for Holmes and trade up a few spots if I have to. Productive as a freshman, sophomore, and junior. Carried an awful mid major team all year. Was a big time recruit out of high school. Can play the 4/5, still only 21 years old on draft night.

Produces steals, blocks, rebounds, positive A/TO ratio, draws an absurd amount of free throws, developed a passable 3pt shot this year. Projects to be a floor spacer in the NBA. Crazy underrated defensively. Can slide his feet and defend the perimeter, has great feel for team defense and can provide rim protection/paint defense. Seemingly checks all the character/work ethic boxes.

I think he’s a future high end starter. Mixture of Al Horford/Pascal Siakam.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I would go for Holmes and trade up a few spots if I have to. Productive as a freshman, sophomore, and junior. Carried an awful mid major team all year. Was a big time recruit out of high school. Can play the 4/5, still only 21 years old on draft night.

Produces steals, blocks, rebounds, positive A/TO ratio, draws an absurd amount of free throws, developed a passable 3pt shot this year. Projects to be a floor spacer in the NBA. Crazy underrated defensively. Can slide his feet and defend the perimeter, has great feel for team defense and can provide rim protection/paint defense. Seemingly checks all the character/work ethic boxes.

I think he’s a future high end starter. Mixture of Al Horford/Pascal Siakam.

Yeah I like Holmes. Really, what's not to like? Excellent defender, long, athletic, plays hard, gets rebounds, has that dog in his game, physical, doesn't back down. Skilled, can shoot and handle the ball for a big man. Especially when compared to other bigs like Missi & Bona, Holmes is much more offensively polished and versatile. He can pick and pop, he can shoot out to 3, midrange, has low post moves, up and unders, spin moves, can score with finesse or with power, can get above the rim with athletic dunks and bring the hammer. Probably more of a 4 than a true 5, but is an ideal small ball 5 with his length and shot blocking. Would be a perfect match with Vukcevic either as his backup or playing next to him. He's the type of player we need and we've lacked for a while. I'd definitely be happy with him at 26.

[NatP4]

I think they want Sarr to pair with Vukcevic, and will look to #26 for a young PG that will spend some time in the G-league next year. guys like Devin Carter, Tyler Kolek, and KJ Simpson are some great options in that range.

Still like the idea of trading down with Portland for #5&#14 if we land the top pick. Would still go Topic or Sheppard at #5, Filipowski, Holmes, or Devin Carter at #14, or package #14&#26 to move up and get Buzelis/Clingan in the 8-12 range.

[nate33]

I like all of those. Consensus big board says Ware and Furphy are gone by then.

https://www.rookiescale.com/2024-consensus-board/

Which puts it at Kolek and Holmes. I'd lean Holmes. They have McCullar and Shannon available at 26 as well. Doubt this FO even looks at Shannon. McCullar is tough but fell off later in the season.

Looking at Shannon's game log makes me want Stephon Castle!

[nate33]

I would go for Holmes and trade up a few spots if I have to. Productive as a freshman, sophomore, and junior. Carried an awful mid major team all year. Was a big time recruit out of high school. Can play the 4/5, still only 21 years old on draft night.

Produces steals, blocks, rebounds, positive A/TO ratio, draws an absurd amount of free throws, developed a passable 3pt shot this year. Projects to be a floor spacer in the NBA. Crazy underrated defensively. Can slide his feet and defend the perimeter, has great feel for team defense and can provide rim protection/paint defense. Seemingly checks all the character/work ethic boxes.

I think he’s a future high end starter. Mixture of Al Horford/Pascal Siakam.

Yeah I like Holmes. Really, what's not to like? Excellent defender, long, athletic, plays hard, gets rebounds, has that dog in his game, physical, doesn't back down. Skilled, can shoot and handle the ball for a big man. Especially when compared to other bigs like Missi & Bona, Holmes is much more offensively polished and versatile. He can pick and pop, he can shoot out to 3, midrange, has low post moves, up and unders, spin moves, can score with finesse or with power, can get above the rim with athletic dunks and bring the hammer. Probably more of a 4 than a true 5, but is an ideal small ball 5 with his length and shot blocking. Would be a perfect match with Vukcevic either as his backup or playing next to him. He's the type of player we need and we've lacked for a while. I'd definitely be happy with him at 26.

It'll be interesting how Holmes fares in private workouts. He looks great by the eye test, and his numbers are terrific. The only issue is that the competition in his league stinks and he's a little old. It would be nice to see how he stacks up against better players. Overall, I like him. I think he can get better still just by spending some time with NBA trainers to work on his balance and core strength. He is athletic and bouncy but looks a little top-heavy and unbalanced at times. That can improve. He gives me Pascal Siakam vibes.

[DCZards]

Watching Jalen Suggs (defending Mitchell), Lu Dort (defending Ingram), and OG Anunoby (defending everybody) impact the game makes me value Castle and his outstanding D even more.

And with his passing and playmaking, there’s a good chance that Castle will be a better all-around offensive player than all three of them…if he can improve his shooting.

[NatP4]

Just can’t make my mind up about Sarr. On one hand, it’s wildly impressive that he posted 4.0 steals&blocks and solid 57% TS in the NBL, which is a really good league. Not even comparable to the level of competition in the NCAA. Other 1st round picks like Giddey, Ball, Hampton, and Ferguson were extremely inefficient in the NBL. He can clearly switch out and guard on the perimeter and moves like a wing. Can be a switch everything 5 in the NBA.

On the other hand, I’m not even sure that he’s a plus defender. The paint defense/rebounding is really bad. He has terrible hands, absolutely does not play with physicality. He can’t shoot. NBL teams left him wide open and his misses are brutal.

Reminds me so much of Jonathan Kuminga. Plays hard, has a great motor and poor feel. Can put up a ton of box score numbers thanks to the motor+physical gifts, but doesn’t bring much positive impact at all.

[nate33]

Just can’t make my mind up about Sarr. On one hand, it’s wildly impressive that he posted 4.0 steals&blocks and solid 57% TS in the NBL, which is a really good league. Not even comparable to the level of competition in the NCAA. Other 1st round picks like Giddey, Ball, Hampton, and Ferguson were extremely inefficient in the NBL. He can clearly switch out and guard on the perimeter and moves like a wing. Can be a switch everything 5 in the NBA.

On the other hand, I’m not even sure that he’s a plus defender. The paint defense/rebounding is really bad. He has terrible hands, absolutely does not play with physicality. He can’t shoot. NBL teams left him wide open and his misses are brutal.

Reminds me so much of Jonathan Kuminga. Plays hard, has a great motor and poor feel. Can put up a ton of box score numbers thanks to the motor+physical gifts, but doesn’t bring much positive impact at all.

Interesting comp in Kuminga. If that holds up, Sarr may still pan out as a very good NBA player, but it might take him longer than usual to reach his potential. Kuminga was terrible in his first two seasons, but he played pretty well in Year 3 with solid statistical production, good one-on-one defense, and a +3.0 on/off differential

My biggest concern with Sarr is his stone hands.

[NatP4]

In the last 5 draft cycles, how many U20 guards/wings have averaged 19+ points on 60%+ TS in their draft year?

Brandin Podziemski, Amen Thompson, Juan Nunez, Jalen Green, and Nikola Topic.

How many U20 guards/wings have averaged 7+ assists?

Josh Giddey, Scoot Henderson, Killian Hayes, Nikola Topic, and the Thompson twins.

Thompson twins shouldn’t count, having played in the OTE league, which is basically AAU. There’s really one player that has posted (per36): 19+ points 7+ assists and a 60%+ TS, and that’s one of the youngest players in any of the 5 draft cycles, playing in a pro league:
Nikola Topic

[doclinkin]

I like all of those. Consensus big board says Ware and Furphy are gone by then.

https://www.rookiescale.com/2024-consensus-board/

Which puts it at Kolek and Holmes. I'd lean Holmes. They have McCullar and Shannon available at 26 as well. Doubt this FO even looks at Shannon. McCullar is tough but fell off later in the season.

Looking at Shannon's game log makes me want Stephon Castle!

Now look at Boo Buie of Northwestern:
19 ppg.
Coming off games of 23, 29, and 22 pts
vs Castle: 2 for 15. 9pts

Or Jalen Blackmon of Stetson:
21.3ppg
Had just scored 43pts to win his conference tournament.
vs Castle: shot 4 for 17. 1-9 from 3.

Baylor Scheierman of Creighton.
19+ppg
Vs Uconn. 12pts apiece both games, on bad %'s

Obviously Clingan also had a lot to do with the defense as well, but you can pick a perimeter player who is the top scorer on their team and Castle tended to twist the spigot on them. Call him Off Night.

[NatP4]

Such weird comparisons out there for Topic.

Rubio: 14.8 points 9.5 assists 4.5 rebounds 5.0 turnovers 3.6 steals 55.2% TS in the ACB league. Similar level of comp and age as Topic.

Giddey: 12.1 points 8.3 assists 8.3 rebounds 1.2 steals 3.7 turnovers 50.6% TS in the NBL. Better competition but similar age.

Dragic: 12.7 points 3.8 rebounds 4.0 assists 1.5 steals 3.3 turnovers 55.6% TS in the Slovenia league at 22 years old.

The best comparison is Luka playing in the ACB/Euroleague in his draft year: 20.9 points 7.5 rebounds 6.6 assists 1.6 steals 3.2 turnovers 59.1% TS. Better competition, was 6 months older than Topic.

Topic played much of the year on a developmental club full of young players in the ABA league, Luka played on a loaded Madrid team that featured 8 players that were drafted into the NBA.

[J-Ves]

Alright question for you fellas... who do you have as your #1 DO NOT DRAFT HE IS FOOLS' GOLD for this year?

Cody Willams, Risacher. The two forwards are so forgettable. They’ll go 2-4 from 3 and play passible defense and call it a day. I just don’t have interest in drafting low impact players

[NatP4]

Interesting comp in Kuminga. If that holds up, Sarr may still pan out as a very good NBA player, but it might take him longer than usual to reach his potential. Kuminga was terrible in his first two seasons, but he played pretty well in Year 3 with solid statistical production, good one-on-one defense, and a +3.0 on/off differential

My biggest concern with Sarr is his stone hands.

I’m intrigued by the idea of building our own French national team. Landing #1 and taking Sarr, giving him time to develop.

Nolan Traore is looking like a serious candidate for the top pick next year. The efficiency and turnovers are rough, but he’s posting 20&9 per 36 as a 17 year old in the French pro league. Just dropped 25&5 the other day, 18&8 a week ago. That level of production from a 17 year old in that league is completely ridiculous. The big question is whether or not he improves as a shooter next year.

7 years from now, after tons of international competitions playing together, we pitch Wemby on joining Bilal, Sarr, and Traore.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I think they want Sarr to pair with Vukcevic, and will look to #26 for a young PG that will spend some time in the G-league next year. guys like Devin Carter, Tyler Kolek, and KJ Simpson are some great options in that range.

Still like the idea of trading down with Portland for #5&#14 if we land the top pick. Would still go Topic or Sheppard at #5, Filipowski, Holmes, or Devin Carter at #14, or package #14&#26 to move up and get Buzelis/Clingan in the 8-12 range.

I think my dream scenario would be a trade down with Utah. Our top pick + 52 for 8, 29, 32.

Then rake in an all upside draft of Cody Williams or Kyshawn George at 8, Ware at 26, Carrington at 29, and draft and stash Dadiet at 32.

[payitforward]

Jonathan Kuminga... Can put up a ton of box score numbers thanks to the motor+physical gifts, but doesn’t bring much positive impact at all.

...Kuminga was terrible in his first two seasons, but he played pretty well in Year 3 with solid statistical production, good one-on-one defense, and a +3.0 on/off differential....

I don't get this. Seems wrong on both your parts.

Kuminga does not "put up a ton of box score numbers," not even this year. Compared to the NBA average at his position, he committed more fouls, blocked fewer shots, turned the ball over more, & grabbed fewer rebounds. His TS% was 1% higher than average, it is true. But, once you figure in the turnovers & low rebounding the overall result doesn't look good.

Don't get me wrong: Jonathan Kuminga is still only 21 years old! He may develop into a terrific player.

[nate33]

Jonathan Kuminga... Can put up a ton of box score numbers thanks to the motor+physical gifts, but doesn’t bring much positive impact at all.

...Kuminga was terrible in his first two seasons, but he played pretty well in Year 3 with solid statistical production, good one-on-one defense, and a +3.0 on/off differential....

I don't get this. Seems wrong on both your parts.

Kuminga does not "put up a ton of box score numbers," not even this year. Compared to the NBA average at his position, he committed more fouls, blocked fewer shots, turned the ball over more, & grabbed fewer rebounds. His TS% was 1% higher than average, it is true. But, once you figure in the turnovers & low rebounding the overall result doesn't look good.

Don't get me wrong: Jonathan Kuminga is still only 21 years old! He may develop into a terrific player.

Compared to the previous year, his USG jumped 25% with no loss in scoring efficiency and a significant decline in turnover percentage. Meanwhile his rebounding improved as did his defense. He improved by PER, BPM, WS/48 and VORP. And he was doing it as a starter with a heavier minute load and heavier responsibility. The only real decline was in 3P%, which, at his low volume, is mostly just statistical noise.

[closg00]

I think they want Sarr to pair with Vukcevic, and will look to #26 for a young PG that will spend some time in the G-league next year. guys like Devin Carter, Tyler Kolek, and KJ Simpson are some great options in that range.

Still like the idea of trading down with Portland for #5&#14 if we land the top pick. Would still go Topic or Sheppard at #5, Filipowski, Holmes, or Devin Carter at #14, or package #14&#26 to move up and get Buzelis/Clingan in the 8-12 range.

I think my dream scenario would be a trade down with Utah. Our top pick + 52 for 8, 29, 32.

Then rake in an all upside draft of Cody Williams or Kyshawn George at 8, Ware at 26, Carrington at 29, and draft and stash Dadiet at 32.

Don’t like this for us, there is too-high a likely hood that we miss-out on the Top-7 players at top, Ware is likely gone before 26, and we end up tanking for Keyshawn George, that’s a bad scenario for me.

[dobrojim]

I would go for Holmes and trade up a few spots if I have to. Productive as a freshman, sophomore, and junior. Carried an awful mid major team all year. Was a big time recruit out of high school. Can play the 4/5, still only 21 years old on draft night.

Produces steals, blocks, rebounds, positive A/TO ratio, draws an absurd amount of free throws, developed a passable 3pt shot this year. Projects to be a floor spacer in the NBA. Crazy underrated defensively. Can slide his feet and defend the perimeter, has great feel for team defense and can provide rim protection/paint defense. Seemingly checks all the character/work ethic boxes.

I think he’s a future high end starter. Mixture of Al Horford/Pascal Siakam.

Yeah I like Holmes. Really, what's not to like? Excellent defender, long, athletic, plays hard, gets rebounds, has that dog in his game, physical, doesn't back down. Skilled, can shoot and handle the ball for a big man. Especially when compared to other bigs like Missi & Bona, Holmes is much more offensively polished and versatile. He can pick and pop, he can shoot out to 3, midrange, has low post moves, up and unders, spin moves, can score with finesse or with power, can get above the rim with athletic dunks and bring the hammer. Probably more of a 4 than a true 5, but is an ideal small ball 5 with his length and shot blocking. Would be a perfect match with Vukcevic either as his backup or playing next to him. He's the type of player we need and we've lacked for a while. I'd definitely be happy with him at 26.

It'll be interesting how Holmes fares in private workouts. He looks great by the eye test, and his numbers are terrific. The only issue is that the competition in his league stinks and he's a little old. It would be nice to see how he stacks up against better players. Overall, I like him. I think he can get better still just by spending some time with NBA trainers to work on his balance and core strength. He is athletic and bouncy but looks a little top-heavy and unbalanced at times. That can improve. He gives me Pascal Siakam vibes.

Maybe I'm being naive but I'd say the Atlantic 10 was a respectable league.

[nate33]

Yeah I like Holmes. Really, what's not to like? Excellent defender, long, athletic, plays hard, gets rebounds, has that dog in his game, physical, doesn't back down. Skilled, can shoot and handle the ball for a big man. Especially when compared to other bigs like Missi & Bona, Holmes is much more offensively polished and versatile. He can pick and pop, he can shoot out to 3, midrange, has low post moves, up and unders, spin moves, can score with finesse or with power, can get above the rim with athletic dunks and bring the hammer. Probably more of a 4 than a true 5, but is an ideal small ball 5 with his length and shot blocking. Would be a perfect match with Vukcevic either as his backup or playing next to him. He's the type of player we need and we've lacked for a while. I'd definitely be happy with him at 26.

It'll be interesting how Holmes fares in private workouts. He looks great by the eye test, and his numbers are terrific. The only issue is that the competition in his league stinks and he's a little old. It would be nice to see how he stacks up against better players. Overall, I like him. I think he can get better still just by spending some time with NBA trainers to work on his balance and core strength. He is athletic and bouncy but looks a little top-heavy and unbalanced at times. That can improve. He gives me Pascal Siakam vibes.

Maybe I'm being naive but I'd say the Atlantic 10 was a respectable league.

The were the 11th best league in college basketball by SRS. Dayton was the only team in the conference to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. (Duquesne won the A10 tournament to earn the automatic bid, but did so with a 10-8 conference record). In other words, none of the 14 conference opponents Holmes faced were good enough to earn at at-large bid to the NCAA tournament, and none of them were ever ranked in the AP top 25 at any point in the season.

5 of Holmes' 34 games were against teams from one of the top 10 conferences in the league.

[dobrojim]

Perhaps I was basing my evaluation on VCU which after just missing winning the A-10 conference tourney
and therefore the NCAAs, had a respectable NIT showing.