The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking!

[NatP4]

Coulibaly was not an “extremely inefficient player”.

[nate33]

Coulibaly was not an “extremely inefficient player”.

An ORtg of 103 is horrific in a league that averages 115.

Out of the 266 guys who played 1000 or more minutes, only 9 had a worse ORtg than Coulibaly. His TS% of .543 is bad enough, but then factor the 2.4 turnovers on extremely low usage and you can't conclude that he was anything but awful on offense.

Don't get me wrong. He was excellent on defense and showed enough flashes on offense relative to his age that I'm not at all worried. I'm just saying that, right now, he is a terrible offensive player. There's no denying it.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I think our squad is markedly more talented than the other bottom dwellers like Portland, Detroit, Toronto, and Brooklyn. Charlotte was bad too but that's due to Lamelo being injured; they've got talent on their roster.

We were sunk by Poole playing historically awful, and also playing a bunch of guys major minutes that have no business getting major minutes (Johnny Davis, Muscala, Anthony Gill, Omoruyi, Champagnie).

Next season, we have a decent roster that in my estimation is comparable to Orlando/Atlanta, which is good enough for late lottery picks but also play-in competitive. And the east is soft enough that even if we drew a Knicks or Cavs, it'd be a 7 game series.

But that fits my personal expectations for the Wizards - to be marginally competitive. Cooper Flagg would be great, but I don't think we'll be in the running unless Poole inexplicably has another historically terrible 55-game run, and we decide to give 10+mpg to a bunch of 2-way contract guys again.

Sorry, but you are totally wrong on this. Yes, Poole was a trainwreck for most of the year, but that alone doesn't turn a 36-win team into a 15-win team.

This team is NOT good. Our starting center is a guy who couldn't get minutes on freaking Detroit. Our backup center is a guy who only managed to play 237 minutes in Dallas, a team with only one true center - a rookie. Coulibaly is an extremely inefficient player despite extremely low usage. His on/off on the second worst team in the league was -4.4. He has a long way to go. Kispert is a nice backup who would start on maybe 6 or 7 teams in the league. Poole wouldn't start on more than a handful of teams either. The only guys on our roster who would start on 75% of the teams in the NBA are Kuzma and Deni. Deni would be the third or fourth best player on most teams. Kuzma, the fourth or fifth. We have nobody on our roster who would be a top 2 player on a .500 team.

This team is going to stink next year. Maybe they'll be a bit better than 15 wins, but I wouldn't expect more than 24 or so. The league has gotten really good.

Look at it this way. How many teams in the NBA are worse than us next year? I can't confidently name a single team. I think Portland will probably finish with a worse record because they play in the West, but they have more talent than us. Detroit has more talent than us too, though they have terrible coaching. So maybe we beat Portland and Detroit. Probably one more kinda bad team has a bunch of injuries and finishes below us too. But that's about it. There's no way we finish better than the 4th worst record in the league.

My expectation for next season is 20 wins max.

[NatP4]

Coulibaly was not an “extremely inefficient player”.

An ORtg of 103 is horrific in a league that averages 115.

Out of the 266 guys who played 1000 or more minutes, only 9 had a worse ORtg than Coulibaly. His TS% of .543 is bad enough, but then factor the 2.4 turnovers on extremely low usage and you can't conclude that he was anything but awful on offense.

Don't get me wrong. He was excellent on defense and showed enough flashes on offense relative to his age that I'm not at all worried. I'm just saying that, right now, he is a terrible offensive player. There's no denying it.

Measuring 19 year old rookies on tanking teams by offensive rating. Give me a break.

Scoot Henderson posted a 97 offensive rating. Your favorite player, Jaden Ivey posted a 103 and 104 offensive rating last year and this year. Cade Cunningham posted a 96 offensive rating and 50% TS in his rookie season and 100 offensive rating and 49% TS last year.

[nate33]

Coulibaly was not an “extremely inefficient player”.

An ORtg of 103 is horrific in a league that averages 115.

Out of the 266 guys who played 1000 or more minutes, only 9 had a worse ORtg than Coulibaly. His TS% of .543 is bad enough, but then factor the 2.4 turnovers on extremely low usage and you can't conclude that he was anything but awful on offense.

Don't get me wrong. He was excellent on defense and showed enough flashes on offense relative to his age that I'm not at all worried. I'm just saying that, right now, he is a terrible offensive player. There's no denying it.

Measuring 19 year old rookies on tanking teams by offensive rating. Give me a break.

Scoot Henderson posted a 97 offensive rating. Your favorite player, Jaden Ivey posted a 103 and 104 offensive rating last year and this year. Cade Cunningham posted a 96 offensive rating and 50% TS in his rookie season and 100 offensive rating and 49% TS last year.

I don't get your point. I'm not saying Coulibaly is a bad prospect or that he won't turn out to be a good offensive player. I'm just saying that 19-year-old Coulibaly in the 2023-24 season was, in fact, an awful offensive player. When I said earlier that he was inefficient, it was factual. I don't understand why you are arguing with me on it.

I don't disagree that Ivey was also an awful offensive player. Guys can improve. When projecting a guy's future, you look for proficiency in the things that are hard to learn, and you worry less about deficiencies in the aspects of the game that you know you can teach over time. With Ivey, I see a guy that can get to the rim and I'm not that worried about the mediocre shooting. And with Coulibaly, I see a guy with a high release point on his jumper and the length and athleticism to finish at the rim, so I'm not too worried about the inconsistent shooting touch and his weak handle.

[AFM]

How the hell do you fellas have predictions already when we don't even know what the roster is going to look like

[SUPERBALLMAN]

How the hell do you fellas have predictions already when we don't even know what the roster is going to look like

Nate broke it down pretty good... But IMO, your looking at pretty much the same team next year minus Tyus, and adding 2 or 3 rookies. Vukcevic is very raw, his upside is higher but next season I expect he'll be less effective than Gafford. Bagley can't stay healthy and has a bad back. Kuz is what he is. I don't expect much from Bilal til year 3 or 4. Kispert isn't going to turn into Kobe Bryant. And Deni is improving but he can only do so much. Poole was more efficient at PG, but he's still bad defensively. And we're not signing any big free agents. So it looks like a bad team. And we didn't have any major injuries this season to Kuzma, Deni or Poole. Also we probably are rolling with Keefe a 1st year head coach. So if they win more than 20 games Ill be surprised.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

The more I look at these prospects the less I like. Most drafts its the opposite. I'm not at all sold on Risacher or Sarr. I have a hard time taking an offensively challenged big man like Sarr or Clingan with a top 5 pick. Sarr is not the physically dominating big he perceives to be. Clingan has foot issues which is never a good sign. Topic is not a top 10 talent IMO, although compared to Johnny Davis maybe he is.

With a top 5 pick, I want a versatile wing with size, length, skill, athleticism and upside...

The player I like, to hell with the mocks and experts.... is Kyshawn George.

NBA DRAFT ROOM:
SG – Miami (Switzerland) – HT: 6-8 – WT: 205 – WING: NA – Fr– A jumbo-sized guard/wing with big time upside ability. He gets where he wants on the court and has shown improved 3pt shooting, hitting over 40% from 3 this year. A standout and versatile defender.

Draft Notes
George is a jumbo-sized guard/wing with awesome physical tools and big time upside. He instantly passes the eye test, not only because of his height but how he moves on the court.
He’s got great handles, good passing vision and the size to see over the defense. And he makes good decisions with the ball, knowing when to move the rock and when to get his shot.
He showed off a really nice outside shot during his freshman season at Miami, hitting an outstanding 41% from 3 on decent volume. This floor spacing ability takes his game to the next level.
George can guard up and down the line-up and does a good job of pressuring the ball, using his size and agility. While he’s not the quickest or most explosive athlete he can stay with smaller guards and uses his size and athleticism well to defend in space.
He’s got a lot of development to do but the sky is the limit for this kid.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

The other guy I'd be looking at in a serious way is Cody Williams...

NBA DRAFT ROOM:

Draft Notes
The younger brother OKC wing Jalen Williams, Cody is an elite level prospect with all the skills and tools to be a star in the NBA. After a slow start at Colorado he’s coming on strong and starting to dominate on the court, showing why he deserves to be in the top 5 discussion.
He has ideal size on the wing at 6-8 with good length, allowing him to play above the rim with ease and impact the game on both ends. He’s an excellent ball handler, driver and finisher who can go left or right and finish over length.
Cody is a solid rebounder and defender who can guard 1-4 and is a good shot blocker for a wing.
Is great with the ball in his hands; can run the offense, set up teammates and create offense for himself. Has a good first step and likes to get downhill and attack the rim. Does a good job of playing with his head up and finding open teammates after collapsing the defense.
Comparisons: His game reminds me of Tracy McGrady, although he’s not as explosive vertically

Watch on YouTube

And the other guy I can be talked into that has been discussed a lot here and is Stephon Castle...

Watch on YouTube

IMO we can get a defensive big man with our 2nd pick...

[SUPERBALLMAN]

So our 2nd pick....

Here we can get the dog, the defensive big we need.
How about 7 foot 7-6 wingspan 20 yr old Yves Missi ??

NBA DRAFT ROOM:
A mobile big with huge upside as a rim protector and defender, Missi’s best basketball is far ahead of him and he’s just scratching the surface of how good he can be. He’s getting more comfortable with the ball in his hands and showed impressive flashes on the offensive end during his freshman season.
Draft Notes
Missi is an incredibly mobile, fluid and naturally talented center who is just scratching the surface of his potential.
He runs the floor and changes ends in a flash, has great feet, agility and is a very fluid athlete for a near 7-footer. His coordination allows him to guard all over the court.
Missi is a good rim protector, showing good timing and instincts to go along with good vertical pop. He’ll be an even more effective interior defender as he adds more weight and strength.
Missi is mostly a play finisher on offense with good touch around the rim and from in the lane. He’s a strong finisher who can handle contact and still finish the play.
He’s a good screener and has a good feel for rolling to the rim and catches the ball very well.
His overall game is still raw and developing but the flashes he shows are elite and he has a chance to develop into a big time NBA player.

Watch on YouTube

Or Adem Bona ...

NBA DRAFT ROOM:
PF – UCLA (Nigeria) – HT: 6-10 – WT: 235 – WING: 7-4 – So – A quick, explosive athlete with great open court speed, tons of strength and above the rim ability. A masterful defender and improving offensive player. Can play a clear role from day 1.
Draft Notes
Adem Bona is an incredibly fast and explosive open court athlete with quick twitch athleticism. He changes ends in a flash, has great upside as a defender and transition player and makes incredibly quick cuts to the basket.
Bona has a strong build but is also a very graceful and fluid athlete. He’s got a great feel for making cuts for back door lobs and for filling the lane in transition, where he’s a great at attacking the rim.
At this point he does most of his scoring in the lane and he does a really good job of facing up and taking his man of the dribble, using his elite quickness to blow by the defender.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

And last but not least DaRon Holmes.

NBA DRAFT ROOM:
NBA DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT
POSITION: C FROM: Dayton HT: 6-10 WT: 235
YEAR: Jr. WING: 7-0 1/2
Draft Notes
Holmes II is a solid interior player who has expanded his offensive game, becoming a legit floor spacer and overall offensive talent.
He’s the type of hard-working post scorer, rebounder and interior defender that might not get a fan base excited but can provide good value in the draft.
Protects the rim well. He’s not the biggest center but has decent length, good timing and natural shot blocking instincts.
Does most of his damage in the paint and looks to dunk everything around the rim.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

[doclinkin]

I don’t know what Risacher has to do with Topic. I simply corrected you posting incorrect information, which you just did again when you said “Risacher has played well in Euroleague play”.]

Tell that to the 17 year old Risacher, who shot 39% from 3, and 58% from 2 in EuroLEAGUE play in 18 games with ASVEL in 13 mins a game. Since you like to rely so heavily on a player's high school numbers to predict the future.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/international/teams/villeurbanne/2023.html

Not what I meant, so I don't mind the correction. But the facts actually bore out my error. Which amuses me. Enjoying the irony.

But sure
I'll happily connect the dots on why to compare Risacher and Topic.
Both are basketball players.
Both are in the same draft.
Both are likely to be picked in the lotto.
We have one draft pick in the lotto.
That means if we want one, we have to decide which is better than the other.
Or more likely to succeed at the NBA level.
That means we should rank them.
You like Topic better.
I like Risacher better.
You told us to keep in mind that Topic played in a pro league with many former high level NCAA guys.
I kept that in mind.
Then looked it up.
He didn't.
For comparison's sake I cited Risacher's performance in a similar overseas league.
Turns out his competition was tougher.
Statistically, Topic was dominant. Though in a lesser league.
Whereas Risacher played a useful role, but against better competition.
The question in ranking them is: which guy's skill set is more likely to translate?
If both guys are available and other players we like are not. Which guy do you pick and why?
If Sarr, Castle, Sheppard and Clingan are gone and the Wiz slid to 5 in the lotto,
and are now on the clock looking at Topic or Risacher or anybody else.
Who do you got and why?

I say um, trade down for Kel'El Ware. Or let someone trade up for Topic and we take Knecht. Take a long hard look at Buzelis.
But if the FO is determined to pick one of the two Euros. I'm saying I think Risacher's skill set translates better and quicker to an NBA team. And he never seems disinterested on Defense.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

With our 2nd round pick, and I'd like to move up if possible, there are some guards and shooters that could be available...

Carlton "Bub" Carrington
NBA DRAFT ROOM:
PG – Pittsburgh – HT: 6-5 – WT: 190 – WING: NA – Fr – A complete point guard who can penetrate, pass and shoot the rock. Was an underrated recruit who had a big time freshman season.

Watch on YouTube

Ajay Mitchell

NBA DRAFT ROOM:
PG – UC Santa Barbara (Belgium) – HT: 6-5 – WT: 190 – WING: NA – Jr – A high scoring guard with NBA size and skills. Very efficient and effective on the court.
A high scoring lefty guard from Belgium who has a chance to make it in the league thanks to his ability to put the ball in the basket.
Has good size for a shooting guard and a high skill level. Isn’t the most explosive athlete but is crafty, gets to his spots well and just has a knack for scoring the ball.

Watch on YouTube

And don't sleep on Baylor Scheierman !!

NBA DRAFT ROOM:
SG – Creighton – HT: 6-6 – WT: 205 – WING: NA – Sr – A complete wing who can score inside and out and rebounds at a high level. Looks the part of a NBA role player.
Baylor Scheierman is a sweet shooting lefty who plays a nice all around game and really fills up the stat sheet. He’s got good size for the SG position and is deadly accurate from downtown.
Has deep range on his jumper and can shoot off movement.
An excellent rebounder for a guard.
He’s not a big time athlete and might struggle defending at the next level but in a league that values shooters he should get a long look.

Watch on YouTube

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

How the hell do you fellas have predictions already when we don't even know what the roster is going to look like

I agree.

How can you be certain the Wizards won't draft like OKC did 2 years ago? When they drafted SGA, where was he selected? Where did he go in the draft? This year's SGA might be Castle.

If the Wizards draft Castle and Sears, how can you be certain they don't begin a marked turnaround?

Sent from my SM-A146U using RealGM mobile app

[DCZards]

If Sarr, Castle, Sheppard and Clingan are gone and the Wiz slid to 5 in the lotto,
and are now on the clock looking at Topic or Risacher or anybody else.
Who do you got and why?

You break out in a big sh*t-eating grin and draft Rob Dillingham. Why? Because he’s one of the top 2 or 3 players in this draft.

[deneem4]

How the hell do you fellas have predictions already when we don't even know what the roster is going to look like

I agree.

How can you be certain the Wizards won't draft like OKC did 2 years ago? When they drafted SGA, where was he selected? Where did he go in the draft? This year's SGA might be Castle.

If the Wizards draft Castle and Sears, how can you be certain they don't begin a marked turnaround?

Sent from my SM-A146U using RealGM mobile app

Sga was a clipper

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I'm sorry I don't want to draft a 6 ft PG or a 6-2 SG with a top 5 pick. Positional size does matter in today's NBA.

[NatP4]

If Sarr, Castle, Sheppard and Clingan are gone and the Wiz slid to 5 in the lotto,
and are now on the clock looking at Topic or Risacher or anybody else.
Who do you got and why?

You break out in a big sh*t-eating grin and draft Rob Dillingham. Why? Because he’s one of the top 2 or 3 players in this draft.

If the Wiz drop to 6 and the top 5 goes Sarr, Topic, Castle, Clingan, Sheppard, I’m going Buzelis over Risacher and Dillingham.

[DCZards]

I'm sorry I don't want to draft a 6 ft PG or a 6-2 SG with a top 5 pick. Positional size does matter in today's NBA.

Size matters…but so does talent.

[nate33]

The more I look at these prospects the less I like. Most drafts its the opposite. I'm not at all sold on Risacher or Sarr. I have a hard time taking an offensively challenged big man like Sarr or Clingan with a top 5 pick. Sarr is not the physically dominating big he perceives to be. Clingan has foot issues which is never a good sign. Topic is not a top 10 talent IMO, although compared to Johnny Davis maybe he is.

With a top 5 pick, I want a versatile wing with size, length, skill, athleticism and upside...

The player I like, to hell with the mocks and experts.... is Kyshawn George.

George is an interesting prospect. He is very long, I'm guessing at least a 6-11 wingspan to go with that 6-8 height. He has a pretty tight handle and the ability to make plays off the bounce, but he has no explosion whatsoever and never seems to jump, either when shooting or finishing at the rim. Because of that lack of explosion, I don't see him taking on any kind of playmaking or on-ball shot creation role in the NBA. He just won't get the necessary separation. You can see it in the stats in that he attempts virtually no free throws at all. But it looks like he has the instincts and b-ball IQ to be a good connector on offense.

He reminds me a bit of Nicholas Batum crossed with a bit of Talen Horton-Tucker. He needs to get stronger and develop more of a big man's mindset, though. His NBA role is as a sharp-shooting 4 like Rui Hachimura, not a big PG.

It wouldn't surprise me if he panned out as an NBA starter, but probably only a 4th or 5th starter. I don't see the upside to draft him in the lottery, but he'd be a fine pick in the teens and definitely someone to look at if he is still on the board at #26.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

The more I look at these prospects the less I like. Most drafts its the opposite. I'm not at all sold on Risacher or Sarr. I have a hard time taking an offensively challenged big man like Sarr or Clingan with a top 5 pick. Sarr is not the physically dominating big he perceives to be. Clingan has foot issues which is never a good sign. Topic is not a top 10 talent IMO, although compared to Johnny Davis maybe he is.

With a top 5 pick, I want a versatile wing with size, length, skill, athleticism and upside...

The player I like, to hell with the mocks and experts.... is Kyshawn George.

George is an interesting prospect. He is very long, I'm guessing at least a 6-11 wingspan to go with that 6-8 height. He has a pretty tight handle and the ability to make plays off the bounce, but he has no explosion whatsoever and never seems to jump, either when shooting or finishing at the rim. Because of that lack of explosion, I don't see him taking on any kind of playmaking or on-ball shot creation role in the NBA. He just won't get the necessary separation. You can see it in the stats in that he attempts virtually no free throws at all. But it looks like he has the instincts and b-ball IQ to be a good connector on offense.

He reminds me a bit of Nicholas Batum crossed with a bit of Talen Horton-Tucker. He needs to get stronger and develop more of a big man's mindset, though. His NBA role is as a sharp-shooting 4 like Rui Hachimura, not a big PG.

It wouldn't surprise me if he panned out as an NBA starter, but probably only a 4th or 5th starter. I don't see the upside to draft him in the lottery, but he'd be a fine pick in the teens and definitely someone to look at if he is still on the board at #26.

He reminds me of Jalen WIlliams. Love the vision, and he’s still developing physically literally just grew 3 inches. Respect & appreciate the assessment, glad to get another set of eyes.

[Dat2U]

I don’t know what Risacher has to do with Topic. I simply corrected you posting incorrect information, which you just did again when you said “Risacher has played well in Euroleague play”.]

Tell that to the 17 year old Risacher, who shot 39% from 3, and 58% from 2 in EuroLEAGUE play in 18 games with ASVEL in 13 mins a game. Since you like to rely so heavily on a player's high school numbers to predict the future.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/international/teams/villeurbanne/2023.html

Not what I meant, so I don't mind the correction. But the facts actually bore out my error. Which amuses me. Enjoying the irony.

But sure
I'll happily connect the dots on why to compare Risacher and Topic.
Both are basketball players.
Both are in the same draft.
Both are likely to be picked in the lotto.
We have one draft pick in the lotto.
That means if we want one, we have to decide which is better than the other.
Or more likely to succeed at the NBA level.
That means we should rank them.
You like Topic better.
I like Risacher better.
You told us to keep in mind that Topic played in a pro league with many former high level NCAA guys.
I kept that in mind.
Then looked it up.
He didn't.
For comparison's sake I cited Risacher's performance in a similar overseas league.
Turns out his competition was tougher.
Statistically, Topic was dominant. Though in a lesser league.
Whereas Risacher played a useful role, but against better competition.
The question in ranking them is: which guy's skill set is more likely to translate?
If both guys are available and other players we like are not. Which guy do you pick and why?
If Sarr, Castle, Sheppard and Clingan are gone and the Wiz slid to 5 in the lotto,
and are now on the clock looking at Topic or Risacher or anybody else.
Who do you got and why?

I say um, trade down for Kel'El Ware. Or let someone trade up for Topic and we take Knecht. Take a long hard look at Buzelis.
But if the FO is determined to pick one of the two Euros. I'm saying I think Risacher's skill set translates better and quicker to an NBA team. And he never seems disinterested on Defense.

I like Kel'el Ware as well. Projects as the modern 5. Probably won't be as productive as Edey but should defend the position better.

Knecht looks like the legit SF'sized version of Kispert. I don't think those two can play together as neither will be able to defend their position - I think long term Knecht will be more valuable as he appears to be a more aggressive scorer plus he has the frame to absorb contact.

I want to like Buzelis but I'm having trouble fully buying the jumper. I lean Holland over Buzelis after watching both take turns struggling in a #1 option role in the G-league. Holland's activity & athleticism give him a better baseline to work with.