The (way too early) 2024 Draft thread. Woo! Tanking!

[jangles86]

Risachers measurements will define whether he ends up going number 1. If he measures big enough to play the 4 then he’s probably the best pick.

[nate33]

Risachers measurements will define whether he ends up going number 1. If he measures big enough to play the 4 then he’s probably the best pick.

One of the better scenarios would be if Sarr slips to #3 or so and we pick him there. I'm willing to risk the upside bet on Sarr, but it would be nice not to have the pressure of the #1 overall pick on his shoulders. I could see a couple of teams taking other guys ahead of Sarr if they jump us in the lottery. Teams like Detroit (Risacher) or San Antonio (Topic).

[Silvie Lysandra]

I'd say Brooklyn is also in worse position. Claxton's value just disappeared because he is now an unrestricted free agent. They don't own their own picks until 2028 so tanking doesn't help them at all. All they have are a bunch of late first round picks coming in from Phoenix, which may start becoming valuable later in this decade, but not for the next few years. They have one good player under contract with high trade value in Mikal Bridges, but they can't trade him and tank because tanking doesn't help them.

so my thing here is that the Suns finished 3 games out of the 10th seed and 8 games out of missing the playoffs entirely, in a season where Kevin Durant played 76 games (something he hadn't done in half a decade), Josef Nurkic played 76 games (something he's only done once in his career) and Grayson Allen led the league in 3PT%. Bradley Beal is only getting worse from here. Booker has sometimes struggled with injury too. Durant is a top 25 player of all time, but you never know when and how fast the wheels could come off - look at Klay; in theory his game SHOULD age really well (Reggie Miller did similar stuff in a far more physical league well into his late 30s), but he's very obviously cooked at this point. And while the Lakers and Warriors are declining (but its the Lakers, they'll find a way, and they still have AD even after LeBron goes), and the Clips are imo living on borrowed time, the Spurs are a ticking time bomb with Wemby and Houston looks ready to become at least relevant.

This obviously has implications for our pick swaps down the road, especially in 2028 and later.

[nate33]

I'd say Brooklyn is also in worse position. Claxton's value just disappeared because he is now an unrestricted free agent. They don't own their own picks until 2028 so tanking doesn't help them at all. All they have are a bunch of late first round picks coming in from Phoenix, which may start becoming valuable later in this decade, but not for the next few years. They have one good player under contract with high trade value in Mikal Bridges, but they can't trade him and tank because tanking doesn't help them.

so my thing here is that the Suns finished 3 games out of the 10th seed and 8 games out of missing the playoffs entirely, in a season where Kevin Durant played 76 games (something he hadn't done in half a decade), Josef Nurkic played 76 games (something he's only done once in his career) and Grayson Allen led the league in 3PT%. Bradley Beal is only getting worse from here. Booker has sometimes struggled with injury too. Durant is a top 25 player of all time, but you never know when and how fast the wheels could come off - look at Klay; in theory his game SHOULD age really well (Reggie Miller did similar stuff in a far more physical league well into his late 30s), but he's very obviously cooked at this point. And while the Lakers and Warriors are declining (but its the Lakers, they'll find a way, and they still have AD even after LeBron goes), and the Clips are imo living on borrowed time, the Spurs are a ticking time bomb with Wemby and Houston looks ready to become at least relevant.

This obviously has implications for our pick swaps down the road, especially in 2028 and later.

All that is true, but the Suns do have Booker, who, by himself, could get them a massive pick package that would immediately put them in better position than us if they chose to rebuild.

[NatP4]

I keep trying to watch more Sarr footage and talk myself into the potential, but he’s just not good at all.

Topic is apparently back on Monday for the ABA playoffs

[Silvie Lysandra]

so my thing here is that the Suns finished 3 games out of the 10th seed and 8 games out of missing the playoffs entirely, in a season where Kevin Durant played 76 games (something he hadn't done in half a decade), Josef Nurkic played 76 games (something he's only done once in his career) and Grayson Allen led the league in 3PT%. Bradley Beal is only getting worse from here. Booker has sometimes struggled with injury too. Durant is a top 25 player of all time, but you never know when and how fast the wheels could come off - look at Klay; in theory his game SHOULD age really well (Reggie Miller did similar stuff in a far more physical league well into his late 30s), but he's very obviously cooked at this point. And while the Lakers and Warriors are declining (but its the Lakers, they'll find a way, and they still have AD even after LeBron goes), and the Clips are imo living on borrowed time, the Spurs are a ticking time bomb with Wemby and Houston looks ready to become at least relevant.

This obviously has implications for our pick swaps down the road, especially in 2028 and later.

All that is true, but the Suns do have Booker, who, by himself, could get them a massive pick package that would immediately put them in better position than us if they chose to rebuild.

Eh, if the wheels came off the Suns that badly (think Durant degrading to just an All-Star instead of All-NBA, and Beal degrading to the point Klay is now), both missing 20+ games a season, trading Booker wouldn't save them unless the person they get back turns out to be a SGA-style lateish surprise (Shai was 6th in ROY vote and looked more like a 2nd option peak at most, not a future MVP level player) - any picks they take back are likely to be low/mid. 2026 imo is the earliest a meltdown could happen and the Wizards have Deni on an incredible steal of a contract (especially if the last 25 games of the season Deni is the real Deni), Poole and Kuzma coming off the books (or traded for assets), Bilal showing more improvement, two top 5 picks over the next 2 seasons (and if we're not contending for a top 5 pick in 2025, that means Bilal, Butler and Deni have shown massive improvement, and/or the rookie has made an immediate impact). I could absolutely see us in the playin in 2026 and maybe even winning, and the Suns missing the playoffs outright, or losing a playin game. At that point, the Suns would be heading into a rebuild with us holding pick swaps in 2026, 2028, and 2030, and with the Nets owning their picks outright, so no help on that front either.

[Dat2U]

I keep trying to watch more Sarr footage and talk myself into the potential, but he’s just not good at all.

Topic is apparently back on Monday for the ABA playoffs

If your looking for a guy worthy of a #1 or even a top 3 pick your going to be disappointed.

You compare Sarr (and others) to guys in the mid-lottery the last few years and suddenly he doesn't look so bad.

The only reason I would want a top 2-3 pick in this draft is too trade it away and even then the value might be diminshed based on this draft class.

Ideally i want to pick in the 4-6 range. That way the guy you draft doesn't feel pressure to live up to being something he's not and you don't get caught up in the group think of only looking at the very top of the draft and missing out on guys ranked a little lower.

[dckingsfan]

I keep trying to watch more Sarr footage and talk myself into the potential, but he’s just not good at all.

Topic is apparently back on Monday for the ABA playoffs

If your looking for a guy worthy of a #1 or even a top 3 pick your going to be disappointed.

You compare Sarr (and others) to guys in the mid-lottery the last few years and suddenly he doesn't look so bad.

The only reason I would want a top 2-3 pick in this draft is too trade it away and even then the value might be diminshed based on this draft class.

Ideally i want to pick in the 4-6 range. That way the guy you draft doesn't feel pressure to live up to being something he's not and you don't get caught up in the group think of only looking at the very top of the draft and missing out on guys ranked a little lower.

This is where I think either we will get the 5th pick in the draft and it takes the pressure off the FO.

Or they show what they are worth and make a trade down. I would LOVE to trade the #1 or #2 pick for Portland's two picks (say if they ended up with #5 & 14) if they don't move up in the lottery.

Edit: That may be a false dichotomy, the FO probably is analyzing more than two paths forward for this year's draft...

[9 and 20]

Suns pick swaps looking real juicy. Too far away to get real excited about just yet - 2030 draft picks are like 12 years old right now. But things are shaping up nicely.

[doclinkin]

Thoughts after the Winger/Dawkins presser. Seems to me they have a formula of the sort of player they like. Dawkins said "We're going to draft people first, not players" then skips over the core characteristics that he might be looking for, except to suggest that they will have to fit with the sort of people they have in the building. However, throughout the conference they emphasized accountability and working closely with players about checking off personal goals during the season. Hitting and exceeding benchmarks then building on that.

I got irked with Tommy Sheppard's mindset emphasizing drafting character over actual basketball skill, but I understand the idea. If you are going to be working with a guy you'd rather have a team full of hard working players who will not poison a locker room with complaints. No prima donnas or low character guys who have been treated as stars their whole lives. Winger/Dawkins take it another step further, hiring hard workers then not abandoning them to develop on their own but challenging them to live up to their own high standards. Coupled with a greater focus on talent (size for the position, athleticism, BBIQ) this seems like an actual plan for long term improvement. Hire hard workers with untapped potential and significant upside, then shape them towards maximizing that talent. Trust their own internal processes to encourage growth.

A minor secondary emphasis in the roster they currently have, before hiring a new coach, and before the draft. Currently they have seen some success in the 2nd half of the season in playing with pace. The team is young, not physically dominant, but able to run until their tongues are hanging out. There is no player so good on the team that they wouldn't re-shape the roster around a player who is more talented but of a more methodical mindset. Still, if you consider Deni a core player, an uptempo style does work to his best advantage. Kispert said he plays best that way. Among others.

So, in any draft pick I think they will look for the greatest match of work ethic, mindset, and talent to pick players with the greatest upside at their natural position. And if there are two who are about equal in all other qualities, then the ability to play an uptempo style may tip the decision in their favor.

Here was my thoughts on assessing the mocks' top 6 on Size for position, Athleticism, BBIQ, Pace, Intangibles and question marks/ areas of growth for best development.

Sarr.
Size ++++ Athleticism ++++ BBIQ ++ Pace +++ Intangibles ?

Spoiler:

Greatest upside if he were to develop. Defensively has an effect on the game. Plays smaller than his talent. Needs strength and interior skills. Young, room to grow, under-productive in an adult league. Sure to add strength, but if he wants to keep taking that jumper he will need to shoot it better. Bonus: French connection with Bilal? Able to play together over the years in FIBA play.

Risacher
Size +++ Athleticism +++ BBIQ +++ Pace +++ Intangibles ??

Spoiler:

Great length for his role at the next level. Good foundation, strong base for adding core strength even if his upper body might not add much muscle. Always balanced despite high center of gravity. Like many tall ballhandlers he will need work on his high dribble before this becomes a strength. Productive as a role playing scorer/defender in a high level adult league. Inconsistent results after peaking midseason then taking a blow. Good team defender, active and aware, playing to the end of the possession, if a step slow vs the quicker 1v1 ballhandlers. Occasionally blows a read on defense. Smooth stroke needs no help. YOung and developing, sure to build strength. Great developmental team around him building useful basketball strength and skills. But does he want it? Is he competitive and personally driven? Does he meet his own challenges? Or is he a product of a basketball family and is working towards that top draft pick vs towards sustained success in the league. Driven by lifelong expectations more than love of the game? Also: is he any better than say, Johnny Furphy, available lower down. (If better on defense). Bonus: French connection with Bilal part deux? Both wing players. Will they work well off each other, learn together in FIBA play? Will Bilal pick up tips from ZR's development team?

Reed Sheppard
Size ++ Athleticism ++ BBIQ ++++(+) Pace +++ Intangibles ++++

Spoiler:

His BBIQ is so fundamentally sound that he plays as if he were a much more talented player. More athletic than he looks, he can get to the rim and take contact. As a defender he wins by reading the floor better than most, even though he does get outquicked and outplayed. Not a high usage player but found ways to be successful every time the ball found him. Good size if he can play as a lead PG, too small if he's only offball. Can he run the team as a lead guard? Pressure may shut off his utility here, he is not blowing past anyone. Either way he's a useful asset even when playing off the ball. Does everything you would ask of him. Can he defend 1v1 at the next level? He will work to tick every box on the checklist, but may have already maxed out his limit in terms of quick twitch muscles or physical reaction speed. Can play with pace since he sees the floor faster than anyone. Does his BBIQ and intangibles mean he has any upside left untouched? If his efficiency is not a fluke of an unusual team construction, if it translated through out his NBA career, then he would be a HOF player at the end of a long and productive run. But. He did come up short in the tourney. Overmatched by the moment? Or see 'unusual team' above.

Stephon Castle
Size +++ Athleticism +++ BBIQ +++ Pace +++ Intangibles ++++

Spoiler:

Significant untapped upside in an already productive player. Work ethic and win oriented focus are at the top of the charts. Coaches' dream role-player. Swiftly adapted to his role as as a prodigal defender and glue guy, a surprise from a player who was a first-option attacking ballhandler in high school. Good size as a combo guard. Needs strength to defend forwards, but has the frame to take it. Needs a jumper but his form is not broken, hits it with accuracy from midrange and FT stripe. Can add range with repetition and trusting his legs on the follow through. Has a hitch in the jumper because he likes to re-balance midair. Competitive mindset extends to both ends of the court. 2nd most important defender on the championship run, he will call his own number on defense and pick up full court to harass opponents into wasted possessions. Pace: can play slow or fast. Upside: he has the frame to get stronger, athleticism to get quicker. Significant leadership potential in his character, temperament, and chemistry.

Donovan Clingan
Size: ++++ Athleticism ++ BBIQ +++ Pace ++ Intangibles ++++

Spoiler:

Long defender, smart passer, dedicated competitor. Instantly productive though he will meet bigger faster players at the next level and end up in the highlight reels of other players. Still, not afraid of the moment. He will put up his own highlight reels on defense.Unlikely to build much strength. Productive at defending outside then recovering to the paint. Plays well as a ball distributing big above the FT line. This could become a strength but he would needs a reliable jumper from there. His FT% betrays the flat shot and poor angle that many seven footers have dropping it in. On offense, he's tall. Gets offensive boards but has to tap a few times to get it in. No dominant move or countermove. He sets a high target for interior passes and will score over shorter players, so he can get you double digit scoring with regularity. WYSIWYG as far as upside is concerned. But what you see is one of the better inside/outside defenders in the game. If health allows he will have a long and productive career.

Topić
Size ++++ Athleticism ++ BBIQ +++ Pace ++(+) Intangibles ??

Spoiler:

Great size for the position. A prodigy offensively. Disinterested defensively, currently. Huge results at lower level play, not enough games to assess if his play against better talent would have been better than the initial poor results. Does his game scale? So far he can get past anybody and get off his lay-up. Jumpshot needs to be built from the ground up. Floorbound athleticism but superior ball handling and unusual proportions mean he is always under control. Pace: could be fast, but tends to dribble to assess the floor before he goes on the attack. Needs the ball in his hands to be successful since he currently adds little else. That said he's both young and highly productive in a lower level adult league. A truly unusual natural talent, so who knows where the upside might be.

Rob Dillingham
Size: - Athleticism: ++(+) BBIQ +++ Pace ++++ Intangibles ++(+)

Spoiler:

Shifty, canny, cunning, wily. On offense anyway. He can score on anybody. Sets up his own shot, and can set up teammates as well when motivated. Better with the ball than off the ball. Still he does shoots a pretty ball from outside, off the catch or off the dribble. Carries serious gravity when he has the ball, and uses that as a weapon. He's on the Trae Young/Kyrie spectrum of undersized players who can affect the game with offense alone. But currently is not as good as either. Doesn't quite show the range of a Dame/Curry. In an era where smallball high usage guards are falling off, he is entering a league that might not prove friendly to his game. But damn he can be fun to watch. Murmurs may hint at something of prima donna status. Though Coach Cal is something of a diva as well. Still, if Jordan Poole were not a great teammate this year might have been even more miserable in that locker room. No? And if Poole were better this year wouldn't have sucked as bad. Dillingham plays like Poole's highlight reel. As if a higher percentage of those crazy shots actually went in.

[nate33]

Thoughts after the Winger/Dawkins presser. Seems to me they have a formula of the sort of player they like. Dawkins said "We're going to draft people first, not players" then skips over the core characteristics that he might be looking for, except to suggest that they will have to fit with the sort of people they have in the building. However, throughout the conference they emphasized accountability and working closely with players about checking off personal goals during the season. Hitting and exceeding benchmarks then building on that.

I got irked with Tommy Sheppard's mindset emphasizing drafting character over actual basketball skill, but I understand the idea. If you are going to be working with a guy you'd rather have a team full of hard working players who will not poison a locker room with complaints. No prima donnas or low character guys who have been treated as stars their whole lives. Winger/Dawkins take it another step further, hiring hard workers then not abandoning them to develop on their own but challenging them to live up to their own high standards. Coupled with a greater focus on talent (size for the position, athleticism, BBIQ) this seems like an actual plan for long term improvement. Hire hard workers with untapped potential and significant upside, then shape them towards maximizing that talent. Trust their own internal processes to encourage growth.

To be fair, Sheppard's emphasis on character over innate ability arguably paid off. Most of his guys seemed like lousy picks at first, but they were all grinders who continued to improve well into their 3rd and 4th (and perhaps more?) seasons rather than plateauing early. Rui and Kispert ended up being relatively solid picks for their draft position, and Deni was a very good pick. (Davis is looking bad, but the fat lady hasn't sung just yet.)

But yeah, I agree that it seems like the number 1 criteria for Winger/Dawkins is work ethic. I'm not sure if they're as worried as Sheppard was about drafting boy scouts, but they better be workers.

Ultimately, I think their selection in this draft is going to depend on the background research they do on these prospects. We can talk until we're blue in the face about which guy we like more based on on-the-court demeanor, or which guy is a better fit, but the reality is, we don't really know that much about what makes them tick. I have high hopes that the Winger/Dawkins scouting department is digging deep to answer those questions. At a surface level, I'd say Castle probably has the character makeup that fits their criteria the most. But there's only so much one can discern from our vantage point.

I'd also include Ron Holland on your list of potential selections.

[J-Ves]

Thoughts after the Winger/Dawkins presser. Seems to me they have a formula of the sort of player they like. Dawkins said "We're going to draft people first, not players" then skips over the core characteristics that he might be looking for, except to suggest that they will have to fit with the sort of people they have in the building. However, throughout the conference they emphasized accountability and working closely with players about checking off personal goals during the season. Hitting and exceeding benchmarks then building on that.

I got irked with Tommy Sheppard's mindset emphasizing drafting character over actual basketball skill, but I understand the idea. If you are going to be working with a guy you'd rather have a team full of hard working players who will not poison a locker room with complaints. No prima donnas or low character guys who have been treated as stars their whole lives. Winger/Dawkins take it another step further, hiring hard workers then not abandoning them to develop on their own but challenging them to live up to their own high standards. Coupled with a greater focus on talent (size for the position, athleticism, BBIQ) this seems like an actual plan for long term improvement. Hire hard workers with untapped potential and significant upside, then shape them towards maximizing that talent. Trust their own internal processes to encourage growth.

To be fair, Sheppard's emphasis on character over innate ability arguably paid off. Most of his guys seemed like lousy picks at first, but they were all grinders who continued to improve well into their 3rd and 4th (and perhaps more?) seasons rather than plateauing early. Rui and Kispert ended up being relatively solid picks for their draft position, and Deni was a very good pick. (Davis is looking bad, but the fat lady hasn't sung just yet.)

But yeah, I agree that it seems like the number 1 criteria for Winger/Dawkins is work ethic. I'm not sure if they're as worried as Sheppard was about drafting boy scouts, but they better be workers.

Ultimately, I think their selection in this draft is going to depend on the background research they do on these prospects. We can talk until we're blue in the face about which guy we like more based on on-the-court demeanor, or which guy is a better fit, but the reality is, we don't really know that much about what makes them tick. I have high hopes that the Winger/Dawkins scouting department is digging deep to answer those questions. At a surface level, I'd say Castle probably has the character makeup that fits their criteria the most. But there's only so much one can discern from our vantage point.

I'd also include Ron Holland on your list of potential selections.

Winger/Dawkins will draft the most physically impressive player who isn’t deemed lazy with their top pick. Sarr might get hit with the lazy tag. Castle and Holland are both great guesses, nate

[doclinkin]

Thoughts after the Winger/Dawkins presser. Seems to me they have a formula of the sort of player they like. Dawkins said "We're going to draft people first, not players" then skips over the core characteristics that he might be looking for, except to suggest that they will have to fit with the sort of people they have in the building. However, throughout the conference they emphasized accountability and working closely with players about checking off personal goals during the season. Hitting and exceeding benchmarks then building on that.

I got irked with Tommy Sheppard's mindset emphasizing drafting character over actual basketball skill, but I understand the idea. If you are going to be working with a guy you'd rather have a team full of hard working players who will not poison a locker room with complaints. No prima donnas or low character guys who have been treated as stars their whole lives. Winger/Dawkins take it another step further, hiring hard workers then not abandoning them to develop on their own but challenging them to live up to their own high standards. Coupled with a greater focus on talent (size for the position, athleticism, BBIQ) this seems like an actual plan for long term improvement. Hire hard workers with untapped potential and significant upside, then shape them towards maximizing that talent. Trust their own internal processes to encourage growth.

To be fair, Sheppard's emphasis on character over innate ability arguably paid off. Most of his guys seemed like lousy picks at first, but they were all grinders who continued to improve well into their 3rd and 4th (and perhaps more?) seasons rather than plateauing early. Rui and Kispert ended up being relatively solid picks for their draft position, and Deni was a very good pick. (Davis is looking bad, but the fat lady hasn't sung just yet.)

But yeah, I agree that it seems like the number 1 criteria for Winger/Dawkins is work ethic. I'm not sure if they're as worried as Sheppard was about drafting boy scouts, but they better be workers.

Ultimately, I think their selection in this draft is going to depend on the background research they do on these prospects. We can talk until we're blue in the face about which guy we like more based on on-the-court demeanor, or which guy is a better fit, but the reality is, we don't really know that much about what makes them tick. I have high hopes that the Winger/Dawkins scouting department is digging deep to answer those questions. At a surface level, I'd say Castle probably has the character makeup that fits their criteria the most. But there's only so much one can discern from our vantage point.

I'd also include Ron Holland on your list of potential selections.

Winger/Dawkins will draft the most physically impressive player who isn’t deemed lazy with their top pick. Sarr might get hit with the lazy tag. Castle and Holland are both great guesses, nate

I agree with both these takes. I can see Holland in the mix at 4-5-6 depending on workouts and measurements. In this run I was working my way down the top 6 or so of the Tankathon list, but I can see Buzelis being in the mix as well.

My sense is they will look for athletic outliers or positionally long players who work hard at both ends of the court. I know I am biased towards Castle and would lean that way in my pick, but players like Sarr and Buzelis are standouts in either length or athleticism and guys like Holland may pop in workouts and hustle metrics.

My instinct though is that if we are in that #2-4 range I think they take Risacher if he's on the board. Long, two way player, work ethic, skills that fit the position and role, areas of improvement are more about being consistent and getting stronger than about entirely re-working his game or adding totally new skillsets. He's got a jumpstart on reaching that top end potential. from what I can tell from players who know his game say he can come off as having a shy personality but is focussed to the point of singleminded in setting his own goals and achieving them.

At #1 I get the sense that nobody passes up Sarr since he is simply an unmatchable anomaly as a physical specimen. Info from players like Rayan Rupert say he is a good guy and hard worker and nice character off the court.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

To be fair, Sheppard's emphasis on character over innate ability arguably paid off. Most of his guys seemed like lousy picks at first, but they were all grinders who continued to improve well into their 3rd and 4th (and perhaps more?) seasons rather than plateauing early. Rui and Kispert ended up being relatively solid picks for their draft position, and Deni was a very good pick. (Davis is looking bad, but the fat lady hasn't sung just yet.)

But yeah, I agree that it seems like the number 1 criteria for Winger/Dawkins is work ethic. I'm not sure if they're as worried as Sheppard was about drafting boy scouts, but they better be workers.

Ultimately, I think their selection in this draft is going to depend on the background research they do on these prospects. We can talk until we're blue in the face about which guy we like more based on on-the-court demeanor, or which guy is a better fit, but the reality is, we don't really know that much about what makes them tick. I have high hopes that the Winger/Dawkins scouting department is digging deep to answer those questions. At a surface level, I'd say Castle probably has the character makeup that fits their criteria the most. But there's only so much one can discern from our vantage point.

I'd also include Ron Holland on your list of potential selections.

Winger/Dawkins will draft the most physically impressive player who isn’t deemed lazy with their top pick. Sarr might get hit with the lazy tag. Castle and Holland are both great guesses, nate

I agree with both these takes. I can see Holland in the mix at 4-5-6 depending on workouts and measurements. In this run I was working my way down the top 6 or so of the Tankathon list, but I can see Buzelis being in the mix as well.

My sense is they will look for athletic outliers or positionally long players who work hard at both ends of the court. I know I am biased towards Castle and would lean that way in my pick, but players like Sarr and Buzelis are standouts in either length or athleticism and guys like Holland may pop in workouts and hustle metrics.

My instinct though is that if we are in that #2-4 range I think they take Risacher if he's on the board. Long, two way player, work ethic, skills that fit the position and role, areas of improvement are more about being consistent and getting stronger than about entirely re-working his game or adding totally new skillsets. He's got a jumpstart on reaching that top end potential. from what I can tell from players who know his game say he can come off as having a shy personality but is focussed to the point of singleminded in setting his own goals and achieving them.

At #1 I get the sense that nobody passes up Sarr since he is simply an unmatchable anomaly as a physical specimen. Info from players like Rayan Rupert say he is a good guy and hard worker and nice character off the court.

If I had to take a guess on their pick right now, it would be Castle. Hard not to be swayed by his performance in the tournament.

Here's a good article from Draft Room on how there's no clear cut #1 in this draft...
https://nbadraftroom.com/there-is-no-number-one-worthy-pick-in-the-2024-nba-draft-but-here-are-10-possibilities/

The Candidates For No.1
Alexandre Sarr – C – Perth, NBL (France) – If I was a betting man I’d put my money on Sarr being the no.1 overall pick. But I wouldn’t bet much. This class is too wide open. Sarr is a special athlete and has tantalizing upside. Some of his game is still theoretical but he has also been productive in a pro league and has gained valuable experience this year playing against grown men. I’ve long compared him to Evan Mobley and I think that level of player is about what we can expect from Sarr. That is, not a no.1 option or a franchise cornerstone but a really solid starter with some star upside.

Donavan Clingan – C – UConn – I’m convinced that Clingan will be a really good starting level center in the league and, while he might be the sexiest pick, he’d be a solid selection at no.1 overall. We all love to see offense, deep 3 pointers and flashy dribbling but defensive anchors are incredibly valuable in the league, especially in the playoffs, and Clingan is one of the best defensive big men I’ve ever scouted. He’s also a talented passer off the short role, has good touch in the paint and is a solid FT shooter. His outside shot will probably develop in time but his value at the top of this draft is the way he shuts down the rim.

Stephon Castle – PG – UConn – Castle at no.1 overall is starting to make more and more sense. If there’s a team in need of a versatile, high-upside guard they could be very tempted by the two-way talents of the UConn freshman. Castle was a key cog on a national championship team and he got better and better as the season went on. If he shoots the ball well in workouts it’ll go a long ways towards boosting his draft stock and putting him squarely in the no.1 overall conversation.

Nikola Topic – PG – Serbia – Topic going no.1 overall would be a bit of a surprise but he’s consistently mocked in that range (top 5) and if a team falls in love with his creative abilities and has a need at the point guard position they could select the 6-6 Serbian at the top of this class. He feels like a natural fit in San Antonio or Washington and so it’ll be interesting to find out on May 12th what number picks the Spurs and Wizards land. Topic is one of the younger players in the draft (he’ll still be 18 years old at the time of the draft) and had some incredibly productive months in the Adriatic League ,earlier this season before getting injured in Euro League play.

Matas Buzelis – SF – Ignite – He would have to shoot the lights out in workouts for this to happen but big wings who can dribble, pass and shoot are very valuable in the League. I’m a big fan of Buzelis but I think he projects more as a high level role player than a star at the NBA level and so he would be a stretch at no.1 overall. He’s a really good athlete for his size, showed improved aggressive over the course of the G league season and his trajectory is pointing up. He didn’t shoot the ball as well as I expected but I’m still a believer in his shot. If the shot does come around he’ll be a really high level player, and could be a good value in the top half of the lottery.

Zaccharie Risacher – SF – France – Risacher’s draft stock has been on a roll coaster ride. Last spring and summer his stock plummeted and there were questions about whether he would even be a first round pick. Then he had a strong first half of the season with JL Bourg in France and his draft stock soared, with many mocks listing him as the potential top pick. But over the past 2 months he’s hit a wall, has been shooting the ball poorly and there are once again major questions about his NBA talents and whether he’s got star potential at the next level. I see Risacher as a very good third option or possibly a second star on a NBA team but not a go-to first option or franchise-altering talent. And so even in this weak draft that’s the type of player I’d rather draft in the 4-10 range, not in the top 3.

Cody Williams – SF – Colorado – Realistically, probably not…but there could be a scenario where Cody shines in workouts and a team falls in love with his upside, length and promise of being a do-everything wing built in the mold as his older brother. My bet is he falls in the 4-10 range on draft night and if things go right, he could be a steal in that range. It’s going to take some time for him to add weight and strength, develop his off-the-dribble shooting and get more consistent from 3pt land but he’s got all the tools to be great and I’d bet he reaches his considerable upside.

Robert Dillingham – PG – Kentucky – Coming into the season I was convinced that Dillingham would be exciting but inefficient and probably more of a second round prospect – or a multi-year college player. But he blew my expectations away, not only with his efficient shooting but his willingness to get teammates involved. He is hands down the most exciting player with the ball in his hands in this draft, a blur with the ball who puts defenders on skates and can shake free for jumpers whenever he wants. His awesome season at Kentucky puts him in the high lottery conversation, and in this draft with no clear no.1 player he could even be considered for the top spot. Drafting an undersized guard that high isn’t unprecedented, but it does come with a fair amount of risk. I’d prefer to take Dillingham in the 5-10 range…but I could say that about most of these prospects.

Ron Holland – SG/SF – Ignite – Nine months ago Holland was consistently mocked in the top 3 and seeing him listed at no.1 overall wouldn’t have come as a surprise. After a solid to mixed season in the G League, which confirmed both his strengths and his weaknesses, Holland’s draft stock has lost some luster and he is now usually mocked in the second half of the lottery. I see him as a RJ Barrett type of player; aggressive with the ball in his hands, high energy on both ends and an overall impactful player but not a sure-fire All Star. Holland showed flashes of self creation ability and the promise of a 3pt shot but his strengths are based around his athleticism, hustle and tenacity. There’s an outside chance he develops into a first option on offense but more likely is a complimentary piece who impacts winning in lots of subtle ways but isn’t a true star.

Reed Sheppard – PG/SG – Kentucky – At the beginning of the season anyone having Reed Sheppard in the running for the top pick in the draft would have been considered clinically insane and promptly institutionalized. But Sheppard had one of the best seasons I can remember ever seeing from a freshman guard, shooting the 3-ball with incredible accuracy while also being a disruptive defender, a solid connector and a guy who made winning plays all over the court. Drafting a 6-3 (maybe 6-2) guard with average athleticism at no.1 doesn’t, on the surface, seem like a smart move (and it probably isn’t) but if a team sees him as an ideal fit in their rotation he could be considered for the top spot. More likely Sheppard gets drafted in the 5-12 range in June.

[doclinkin]

If I had to take a guess on their pick right now, it would be Castle. Hard not to be swayed by his performance in the tournament.

And all year really. I think he's exactly the player they are looking for as far as competitive fire and rising to the occasion. Highest upside when it comes to the mesh of defense/work ethic/frame to build strength/BBIQ and competitiveness. It comes down to this.

If he shoots the ball well in workouts it’ll go a long ways towards boosting his draft stock and putting him squarely in the no.1 overall conversation.

I leaned slightly towards ZR on the idea that he would actually get playing time to develop. As a shooter who defends there are ready minutes for him to get on court and succeed. He can start to work on checking boxes on his list. Early production can lead to future upside. And a 6'9" shooting guard has more length at the spot than the 6'6" Castle. Though Castle plays big. And if he's at PG he's huge.

It's always harder to find minutes for a shooter with limited range. Castle is a good enough glue guy that a coach will find a role for him, but he reminds me of the guard version of Deni coming in to the league. A plus defender at 3 positions but without a defined role except for "Team Player". That said, he makes it easier to play a non-defender next to him since he can defend well both man and in a team scheme. So that opens minutes for Poole or Vuk.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

If I had to take a guess on their pick right now, it would be Castle. Hard not to be swayed by his performance in the tournament.

And all year really. I think he's exactly the player they are looking for as far as competitive fire and rising to the occasion. Highest upside when it comes to the mesh of defense/work ethic/frame to build strength/BBIQ and competitiveness. It comes down to this.

If he shoots the ball well in workouts it’ll go a long ways towards boosting his draft stock and putting him squarely in the no.1 overall conversation.

I leaned slightly towards ZR on the idea that he would actually get playing time to develop. As a shooter who defends there are ready minutes for him to get on court and succeed. He can start to work on checking boxes on his list. Early production can lead to future upside. And a 6'9" shooting guard has more length at the spot than the 6'6" Castle. Though Castle plays big. And if he's at PG he's huge.

It's always harder to find minutes for a shooter with limited range. Castle is a good enough glue guy that a coach will find a role for him, but he reminds me of the guard version of Deni coming in to the league. A plus defender at 3 positions but without a defined role except for "Team Player". That said, he makes it easier to play a non-defender next to him since he can defend well both man and in a team scheme. So that opens minutes for Poole or Vuk.

Yeah I can see Poole & Castle in the backcourt together. I can see him at SG with either Poole or Butler at PG, or Castle at PG with Kispert at SG. And it would be fun to see Castle and Bilal together running a full court press at teams. We'd have a lot of versatility..

Basically Poole & Butler at PG, Castle PG/SG, Coulibaly SG/SF, Kispert SG/SF, Deni SF/PF, Kuz PF.

I mean I can see right away Poole, Bilal, Deni starting 1-3, with Butler, Castle, Kispert off the bench.

[NatP4]

I’d be happy with any of Topic, Sheppard, Clingan, Castle.

I do think Castle is the player they are leaning towards based on the comments in the press conference.

[NatP4]

It’s early, but I like Harper more than Flagg&Bailey:

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We haven’t seen this level of shot creation/shot making in a guard prospect in awhile.

[nate33]

The more top tier prospects in the 2025 draft, the better. I'm not sure it's worth it to try and rank them just yet. What I love about Flagg is his two-way ability. And Bailey looks like he can pull up for that jumper whenever and wherever he wants - almost Kevin Durant like. Harper's pullup jumper off the dribble reminds me of Lillard.

[dobrojim]

this is probably unrealistic but it sure would be nice to draft this years
version of Jaquez with #26. I was quietly perplexed last year at how little
attention people paid to him.

Is Kolek maybe that guy?