payitforward wrote:If we get the top pick, I can't imagine Will looking past Sarr. After that... who knows?
Take another look at Reed Sheppard's numbers. They are simply amazing.
Overall, Reed Sheppard's Freshman numbers per 40 minutes are significantly better than James Harden's. They are significantly better than Steph Curry's. They are better than any guard I can find.
& I don't just mean shooting, though yes he did post a .702 TS% as a college Freshman! But he also got almost 6 boards, just over 6 assists, & almost 3.5 steals.
Now... show me another Freshman guard who shot anywhere near the level of Reed Sheppard. I don't mean this year. I mean ever.
I think there is a solid chance Dat's boy Jared McCain ends up a comparable player to Reed Sheppard at the next level. Maybe better.
I think McCain will ultimately prove better on defense. He's going to measure long for his height and while strong already, looks to have a frame that can build even more strength and quickness. Reed anticipates as well as anyone in the game, jumping passing lanes for steals and harassing his man from end to end. When blown past he still was able to chase after a player to swat at a shot from behind.
Players in the NBA are quicker though and once they get by you you're more likely to pick up a foul running after them, unless you have the length to make up the difference. Reed is going to measure short in reach and wingspan, whatever his height. As for footspeed I do expect Sheppard will grade out well in lane agility drills, but in games I get the sense McCain will prove better able to stand up his man and keep in front of them, fight over picks to challenge a shot. Surprising strength for his position, he was a hellacious rebounder this year. Similar averages to the steady Sheppard, but more games with high total boards.
As for shooting, McCain's shot is pure (TS .611) and he got it off at a high rate despite pressure and the scouting report. McCain was the 2nd option for Duke behind PF/C Filipowski, ahead of senior G Jeremy Roach. Whereas Sheppard was better able to pick his spots on a team that was loaded with guard talent. Shep was 4th on his team in FG attempts per game. Evaluation of Reed's game depends on if you think his awe inspiring 3FG efficiency was a product of the system and shot selection and if you think it is sustainable at the next level. I think at the college level he often had juuuust enough room to get his shot off. I think he will have to recalibrate against the longer quicker defenders at the next level. Though I do think he will adjust. McCain showed an ability to hit his shot against pressure and the scouting report, playing well coming off screens on the catch and shoot or making his own shot with the ball in his hands.
Where Sheppard has the clear edge in stats is his potential as a lead guard, putting up solid assist numbers including one double-double, and one 8pt/11ast game. Still McCain throws a pretty pass as well, nice ast/TO ratio, and had the edge in rebounding with six double digit rebounding games, 4 of which were double doubles.
When the lights were brightest on the tournament stage though McCain came up huge while Sheppard struggled. Reed managed only 3 points in his teams flame out in the round of 64. By contrast McCain hit for 15 pts vs Vermont, then 30pts against James Madison his 2nd highest point total of the year at that time, going 8-11 on three pters. He managed only 7 against the fiercest backcourt defense in the NCAA in Houston, but topped his earlier output with 32pts against NC State when he had to carry the team with Filipowski fouled out. Only hit 5 for 11 from 3, and 8 for 20 overall, but 11-11 from the FT line trying to win it all by himself.
I like Sheppard's efficiency and BBIQ. But I'm not sure I'd gamble that he could keep up that anomalous and historically unprecedented efficiency if he were given the ball at higher usage. Personally if I had that #1 pick I'd be tempted to trade back for Toronto's 6 & 17, where I would hope to get Castle (6) and Ware (17), or Clingan (6) and McCain (17) as a consolation prize. And hope Edey slips to our 26. That said I bet Toronto would rather keep their picks to take Castle then take Edey early at 17.
https://youtu.be/91yDHFzyAws?si=8wfb0cbF91hHLQYM
;ab_channel=ACCDigitalNetwork
! & I think e.g. Castle & Ware plus whoever seems bpa at 26 would be a phenomenal get for a rebuilding team like ours.
