payitforward wrote:DCZards wrote:payitforward wrote:
OTOH, obviously, for the guy who winds up being the best player in his draft class to be picked in that 5-10 range -- or significantly further down the ranks for that matter-- happens all the time.
In fact it's rare for the best player in a draft class to be picked in the top 3.
The best player in the draft is often in the top 3. It’s not rare.
2023: Victor W.
2022: Banchero or Holmgren
2020: Anthony Edwards
2019: Zion Williamson or Morant
2018: Luka Doncic? (or SGA not in top 3)
2017: Jayson Tatum
2012: Anthony Davis
Except that we don't "know" that Victor will be "the best" out of the '23 class -- it's too early to say that.
Rinse & repeat for '22 (& I sure don't think it's likely to be Banchero -- tho for sure Holmgren seems to be fantastic!)
As to '20, Anthony Edwards is definitely a good player, but Tyrese is way better, & you could argue that so are both Maxey (21) & Bane (30).
But... lets dig a bit deeper!
'03 LeBron --
yes'04 Dwight --
yes'05 no -- CP3 didn't go in the top 3 -- NO
'06 -- unclear Rondo, Lowry, Gay, Redick -- all equal to Aldridge (taken at 2)
'07 -- KD --
yes'08 -- No & not even close
‘09 – No -- Curry (9)
‘10 – No -- George (10)
‘11 – No -- Kawhi (15) & Butler (30)
‘12 – No -- Dame (6)
‘13 –No -- Giannis (15)
‘14 – No -- Jokic
‘15 – No -- (Booker/14 )
‘16 – No -- (Sabonis / 11)
‘17 –
yes (Tatum at 3), but both #1 & #2 were major disappointments. Ditto #4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12… -- only at 13 & 14 do we get to Mitchell & Bam. & much further down come the rest of the best players from what turned out to be an outstanding draft overall (19 – Collins; 22 – Jarrett Allen; 23 – Anunoby; 29 – Derrick White; 30 – Josh Hart)
‘18 –
yes, Doncic. But, not Ayton, not Bagley, not Mo Bamba, not Carter, not Sexton, not Knox. That’s 6 failures out of the top 9 picks. Meanwhile R2 gave us 13 guys with successful NBA careers – including Jalen Brunson & Mitchell Robinson & Bruce Brown & Jarred Vanderbilt
'19 – Williamson has by no means lived up to the hype that got him picked at the top. Morant is stunning on court (but a problem off court). IMO, Garland (5) might be the best out of the 1-10 picks. & there are undrafted players from that year who have been better than more than half the lottery picks!
So... in 5 of the 20 drafts from 2003 - 2022 the best player went in the top 3. I don't think that's much of a pattern.
Still, you are right, Zards, that 5 out of 20 shouldn't be called "rare," so that was an overstatement on my part.
Could just say that, by and large, the best player in the draft isn't usually among the first 3 picks. Or, for that matter, in the first 5.
I gotta disagree with a bunch of these, or at least provide some context.
2023 - We do know that Wemby will be the best, barring a major injury.
You may not know, but the rest of us do.
2022 - Banchero (#1) or Chet (#2)
2021 - Mobely (#3) or Barnes (#4) or Cade (#1) with a small chance that Green (#2) or Suggs (#5) or Trey Murphy III (#17) move up the ranks.
2020 - Edwards (#1) or Haliburton (#12) Every GM in the league takes Edwards over Maxey right now because of his two-way play. It's not even arguable.
2019 - Morant (#2) or Zion (#1). And even if you want to say Zion hasn't lived up to the hype, it's because of injuries.
2018 - Doncic (#3) or SGA (#11)
2017 - Tatum (#3)
So that's a 7 year run where the top 3 pick was the best, or at least arguably the best player in the draft. 7 straight years! So let's not act like the draft is a random crapshoot. High picks matter.
2016 - Sabonis (#11) might be best but it's certainly very close. Jaylen Brown (#3) and Ingram (#2) are very good. Nobody is disappointed in grabbing an all-star wing at the top of the draft. Simmons (#1) was also on a trajectory to be perhaps the best before whatever happened to him mentally.
2015 - I'll give you Booker (#13), but Karl-Anthony Towns at #1 was not a disappointment either. He was ROY and a 4-time All-Star.
2014 - Yes Jokic (a total fluke at #41) is the best, but Embiid at #3 would be the best in nearly any other draft.
2013 - No argument. It was a horrible draft, but IIRC, everyone knew it was a horrible draft going in. Sometimes a draft does not have any clear-cut top picks.
2012 - Davis (#1) is better than Lillard (#6). Or certainly he is more valuable given the scarcity of truly elite centers.
2011 - No argument. Kawhi and Butler are better than the best of the top 3 (Kyrie)
2010 - No argument. PG was best. But John Wall (#1) wasn't disappointing.
2009 - Curry at #7 was the best, but Griffin at #1 and Harden at #3 are two probable HOFers.
2008 - Rose #1, would have been the best if not for injuries. He was an All-Star in his 2nd, 3rd and 4th seasons, and MVP in his 3rd season.
2007 - KD #2. And Oden (#1) was actually real good except for the injuries. Horford at #3 is no slouch either.
2006 - What a horrible draft! Aldridge (#2) is still the clear best pick though, though Brandon Roy (#5) was on pace to be better until the injuries.
2005 - CP4 was best at #4, but Bogut (#1) would have been close if not for the injuries.
2004 - Howard (#1) was best
So this idea that the best player in the draft isn't usually in the top 3 is pretty conclusively disproven.
In the last 20 drafts, the top 3 pick was best or at least arguably the best in 12 out of 20 drafts:
2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2012, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2004.
And in 5 other drafts, a top 3 pick yielded multi-time All-Stars who would not in any way be considered disappointing:
2016, 2015, 2014, 2010, 2009.
So there are really only 3 out of 20 drafts where all 3 of the top 3 picks would be considered disappointing: 2013, 2011, 2005. And even that 2011 draft produced Kyrie, who only seems disappointing when compared to Kawhi and Butler, but would be fine in a normal draft.
All that said, I think it's true that in the one instance when the draft had no clear cut upper tier, it ended up being a bad draft for the top 3. That year was 2013. I think the 2024 draft is likely to be similar so I'm not expecting much out of the top 3 this time around either.