NYG wrote:Wizards
1. The following players will 100% be back with the team next year...
2. The following players will 100% be gone next year...
3. The 3 things my team must accomplish this off-season are... (Note: this could be cap wise, on the court needs wise, coaching change, free agency/draft needs/targets, etc.)
1. Keep.
The team has one proven core player in
Deni Avdija. Homegrown player who is improving swiftly. On a great contract, resigned and extended. He's easy to build around since he is a team player who passes willingly and plays good defense. Switchable at either forward spot and versatile enough to guard both interior and wing players, he fits in every configuration at that end. He's probably the Wizards only untouchable player, inasmuch as his contract is such a good value and his improvement has been so significant that it would be unlikely for any team to offer anything of equivalent value. 100% he stays on the team.
For opposite reasons
Jordan Poole will remain with the team since he would be impossible to trade. With an albatross contract, he had a historically awful start to the season. Turned it around late season when moved to the bench so he could develop confidence attacking back-ups. He actually played faux-good enough as a lead ballhandler combo guard that it may allow the team to start the year with him at PG, even while knowing the greatest benefit he adds will be as a tank commander in a year with a handful of potential franchise talents. He will give dynamic losses. Nothing is more important next year than draft position. Interestingly he actually is thought of as a good teammate and hard worker in practice, so his teammates seem not to resent his lack of defense, overdribbling and shotjacking. All seem to think he will turn it around at some point. Late game play says, maybe so. And probably not. In any significant way. But given that he is here no matter what, that is what the front office can hope for: maybe with occasional highlight reel hot streaks he turns out to be tradable later in his contract. For now: he's our best chance at Cooper Flagg or Ace Bailey. 100% he's here next year.
This year's rookies of course will undoubtedly remain with the team.
Slow playing his development, they are happy with 6'8" F
Bilal Coulibaly's potential and will have very clear assignments to work on over the summer. Add an offensive move. Work on his handle. Get stronger. He has a few obvious areas of development but his length, instincts and upside are still enticing, especially on defense. They're process oriented and hope to see incremental growth not anything world shattering. 98%, it would take a startling offer with 2025/2026 lotto picks to pry him away.
Surprising promise was shown by 7' F/C
Tristan Vukcevic overseas. To the extent that they brought him over midway through the year to give him late season developmental time in games that didn't matter. He startled with the skills he did show. Passing, outside shooting, a bit of a handle, on offense he popped. On defense he was more lean and quick than when he was last seen in Summer League. Solid improvement though he still needs work. They will want him to add strength in the offseason so he can handle the physicality demanded in the front court. Currently he plays only as a stretch forward but his limited laterality means his ability to guard outside is not a strength. So anything he adds there is a positive. Fortunately he has a chance to play for any of four different Olympic teams, so whoever wants him from Sweden, Greece, Serbia or Italy can add him as a practice player where he can earn more valuable experience. 85% he sticks.
Jared Butler played solidly in a back-up role late season and earned a contract with the team. A pro's pro, his contract provides good value. His age fits their timeline, he was a success story as a mid-season pick up. 80% except that he's a good trade throw in if something shows up during the season.
2. Trades.
Kyle Kuzma will be a draft day trade. He has a nice contract, excellent highlight reel, championship resume, enough of a game to be desirable. Good teammate. Plays defense when his offensive role is reduced. Rebounds when he can focus on it. Has triple doubles in his history. Versatile at being mediocre to good. Known and well liked by many around the league. He does not carry the team to wins, and does not fit the timeline. He is the team's best trade asset. He doesn't have veto power but they'd like to make him happy. If his agent can find a contender who wants him the team will swap him for a package of picks. 90% he is gone before the season. His exit makes room for Deni to take a leadership role, and opens play time for Bilal.
Tyus Jones, solid soldier, good player. Poor fit next to Jordan Poole. I wish we could keep him and swap Poole, but he is a free agent who will earn offers. Nice if we could sign and trade him, but likely he will get offers that make this unnecessary. 80% he is gone. If we landed either Reed Sheppard or Stephon Castle in the draft I'd hope to pay Jones a little above the market rate to mentor them, so they learn professional habits from the NBA record holding Ast:TO leader. As opposed to whatever Poole models.
2.A. Assets.
All other players are gettable with the right offer. Probably the 2nd most valuable trade asset is Corey Kispert. I expect him to stick with the team, especially as he is showing growth as a potential guard prospect. But a team could get him as part of a strong package deal.
In order of value the rest are all gettable as throw-ins for trades.
Shamet -- reliable off ball shooter
Bagley -- physical frontcourt talent with injury history, rejuvenated some value with sturdy play when healthy
Holmes -- late career banger, likewise showed he has something left in the tank with the right team, competent back-up C.
Omoruyi -- solid end of bench undersized C hustlefck
Baldwin -- looks so good, performs so bad. Tall talented outside shooter who misses most shots. But hit a few late season. Late bloomer? Bet on a 3rd year break out?
Davis -- undersized 2-guard who can't shoot, but does play defense.
3. Offseason.
Nothing matters more than the draft. This year, next year, all future years. We can pick for upside not instant production. Positional needs are secondary. We have no position that is too deep that we can't add a new talent and get better.
This year we have a top 6 pick guaranteed. Plus one in the mid 20's. And a late 2nd rounder. This year is deep in playable talent even if it's not topheavy in all-stars and franchise players. I have my favorites, but in a year with no consensus picks the team can gamble on their hunches and data. Take a swing. No fans will tear up their season tickets because you took that player over this one. Nobody is a surefire hit.
That means you can even trade down and trade it forward if you get a good offer. We are still in the business of stockpiling draft picks. Either round. A win total in the teens means the team is happy to trade anybody on the roster for future draft picks. Our cap situation is good enough that we can even eat other teams' terrible contracts so long as they overpay in picks and swaps.
The team is transparent that we are in the rebuilding phase. Last year we talked about building from the middle. It didn't happen. We lost at an unprecedented rate. That gives them a PR shield to commit to next year as a developmental year, where they constantly audition call-ups from the G league etc. and play young players heavy minutes. Most importantly we need to lose heavy in a year when other teams will be tanking. Get a franchise player, or more than one, then build around them. Nothing else matters.