Armchair Coaching, Scouting, etc thread.

[LyricalRico]

Curious: Is it a foregone conclusion that Demarr Johnson is the odd man out among him, Dixon and Dee Brown?

I would like to keep Johnson but I can't give you a great answer on who should be the guy cut but it appears that the organization has fallen in love w/Dee Brown and we already know they love Dixon.

I wouldn't hold my breath on Dermarr making the team. IIRC both Brown and Dixon rec'd partial guarantees on their deals. I don't think Johnson got anything like that. I also agree with you that EJ has fallen hopelessly in love with Dee Brown so I think he's a lock to make the team. EJ also leaned on Dixon a lot during his first stint here so one would think that Juan has the inside track for the final spot.

IMO Johnson would have to be nothing short of spectacular and Dixon would have to be truly atrocious for there even to be a discussion on keeping Dermarr instead of Juan.

[W. Unseld]

Lyrical that s#cks but I think you're right. The partial guarantees will control and if you add the love-fest factor those guys definitely make it over Dermarr.

[doclinkin]

IMO Johnson would have to be nothing short of spectacular and Dixon would have to be truly atrocious for there even to be a discussion on keeping Dermarr instead of Juan.

Paradoxically I think the deck is stacked against DerMarr since Juan Dixon is injured. There can be no head-to-head competition between the two so DMJ has to outperform the team memory of the Juanderdawg.

On the other hand Coach Eddie has stated in the past he prefers bigger guards, ideally every player in the offense can fill out in other spots. That's part of the strength of the offense, setting up confusion and mismatches. You look at the Nets with Kidd, Kerry Kittles, RJeff, Luscious Harris, etc. all were 6'5"+ And EJ grew up in the league next to Magic and James Worthy. There's a reason why DerMarr has been playing exclusively at the offguard spot this preseason, and it ain't because DMac has been offensively incendiary at SF...

I recall early on in their first stint together fans were complaining that Jordan wasn't giving JDix a chance to play. But a few come-from-behind victories when all else looked lost sold him on the little guy. Break glass in case of emergency. Hard to say. Sounds like Juan is trying to play in Barcelona, Friday. If he can't go, can the team afford to carry another injured guard? It would be a hard press conference letting him go. If we had a 16th roster spot there's no question, but on the other hand, if he wasn't a known quality there's no way we'd keep him.

What intrigues me though are the murmurs of defensive effectiveness re: the Other Johnson. Linton. He' was credited for choking off Rudy Gay, and apparently played well in the huslte and effort and defense categories in the other games. Roster is full, and we're still waiting on Dominic to play that role. But it's interesting is all. LeBron-wise for instance.

But back to the topic of the thread:

So clearly we're doomed without Haywood. No lie. No happy talk. But _IF_ you were to devise a winning gameplan using just the bits and scraps we have on the roster (take your pick of Juan or DrMrJo) what would that look liek for you? Who plays what role. Sketch out a sequence at both ends of the court.

Same question as usual. With Coaching alone, how could you win using the roster on hand....

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Curious: Is it a foregone conclusion that Demarr Johnson is the odd man out among him, Dixon and Dee Brown?

I would like to keep Johnson but I can't give you a great answer on who should be the guy cut but it appears that the organization has fallen in love w/Dee Brown and we already know they love Dixon.

I wouldn't hold my breath on Dermarr making the team. IIRC both Brown and Dixon rec'd partial guarantees on their deals. I don't think Johnson got anything like that. I also agree with you that EJ has fallen hopelessly in love with Dee Brown so I think he's a lock to make the team. EJ also leaned on Dixon a lot during his first stint here so one would think that Juan has the inside track for the final spot.

IMO Johnson would have to be nothing short of spectacular and Dixon would have to be truly atrocious for there even to be a discussion on keeping Dermarr instead of Juan.

I agree with you, LR.

Recall on draft night this team sold the rights to Bill Walker (who's IMO better than Dixon or DerMarr or Linton, but that's besides the point). The Wizards are looking to save a dime and since they've already committed partial guarantees to Brown and Dixon this roster's already set.

Remember last year when they couldn't even afford a 10-day player like Mike Wilks? Or how they couldn't bring in a veteran at the minimum due to the cap?

This year they've made Gilbert very comfortable in his grotto, but the Wizards don't value guys like DerMarr or Linton enough to spend the short money it would take to maybe let Dixon go.

[LyricalRico]

But back to the topic of the thread:

So clearly we're doomed without Haywood. No lie. No happy talk. But _IF_ you were to devise a winning gameplan using just the bits and scraps we have on the roster (take your pick of Juan or DrMrJo) what would that look liek for you? Who plays what role. Sketch out a sequence at both ends of the court.

Same question as usual. With Coaching alone, how could you win using the roster on hand....

I think more of the offense would have to go through the post. Playing Jamison at SF and Butler at SG gives them mismatches on the block so maybe we go big. Etan also has to be able to convert down low and that's probably easier for him to do if he's out there with the starters since there would be better spacing.

Etan
Blatche
Jamison
Butler
Daniels

That lineup gives you 3 post scorers, an excellent game manager in Daniels, and a guy in Blatche who can be somewhat of an X-factor. He'd have to pass and shoot well for it to work, though. I haven't seen enough of him this camp/pre-season to know if he's truly progressed in those areas.

Defensively you get two shot blockers in there against the other team's starters, which is about as good as we're going to get defensively.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'd try this lineup:

Starters: Daniels, Butler, Jamison, Pecherov, and Blatche.

Bench: Stevenson, Thomas, Songaila, Young, D Johnson, Brown, McGuire, McGee

Butler can play SG and Jamison can play SF. What they lack in quickness they'd make up for in rebounding and post ups.

I'd start Pecherov and pray he finds his shot. He can space the floor for Jamison, Butler, and Blatche inside. Eddie once tried OPEC, Blatche and Wood altogether. It didn't look half bad. Pecherov averaged 14 pts and 7 rebs per-36 last season with terrible shooting percentages. I think with Daniels, Butler, and Jamison being so solid offensively and with Blatche having some tricky moves inside; OPEC could do what he does offensively and just stand at the three point line and get buckets. Pecherov could shoot prior to his foot injuries and he can rebound okay. I start him knowing I got better guys on the bench.

The bench would be the key to the team. Stevenson, Brown, Thomas, and Songaila stop the bleeding defensively and Young, D Johnson, and McGee all come in for scoring.

My team would probably not be that good but I'd find PLAY BLATCHE BIG MINUTES because he can play. I'd get Pecherov's value up. I'd have 2 of the (at or near) 7 footers out there on the floor for better or worse. I'd have a big lineup that would rebound and score well, and not get killed on the perimeter. Other teams would be forced to try and match up defensively.

I would not have a small forward tandem of Butler and Jamison come playoffs.

As for Caron and Antawn, I'd play them a lot less minutes. Probably 32-26 mins most nights. I'd give the young guys a lot more burn at backup SG and SF, as well as the young bigs more time at PF and C.

I'd really try to trade Daniels, Songaila, and Thomas for expirings, if possible.

I think the Wizards could be near .500 with the talent on hand if they get away from small ball, porous perimeter defense, and if they adjust to having no post defender with Haywood out. Etan wouldn't be the way I went except that he'd be a good sub off the bench.

INSTEAD OF STARTING PECHEROV might even try Daniels, Butler, Jamison, McGuire, and Blatche. All McGuire would be asked to do is pass, rebound, and run the floor.

[nate33]

I can't believe you people are even considering benching Stevenson. Without Haywood, Stevenson is the only guy on the team who can play above-average defense.

Regarding Doc's original challenge, Pradmaster over at BulletsForever.com had a good point. In years past, Haywood's on/off differential on defense was terrific. Basically, when he was on the floor, we were average defensively, and when he was off, we were among the worse defenses in the history of the NBA. That may have partially attributable to the system (or lack thereof). The rest of the team was really bad at sticking to their man and there was less accountability overall. We played matador defense and just hoped Haywood would clean up the mess.

But under Randy Ayers, our defense has more structure and accountability. It's notable that Haywood's defensive on/off differential last year was much less significant. We were only 1.5 points better defensively when he was on the floor. Perhaps, we are no longer as dependent on him cleaning up the mess. We may not suffer quite as much without him.

[LyricalRico]

I can't believe you people are even considering benching Stevenson. Without Haywood, Stevenson is the only guy on the team who can play above-average defense.

I did think about that. But my idea had less to do with wanting to bench Stevenson than it did with wanting to use Butler at SG to create post up opportunities. We can only have 5 guys on the court at a time.

But under Randy Ayers, our defense has more structure and accountability. It's notable that Haywood's defensive on/off differential last year was much less significant. We were only 1.5 points better defensively when he was on the floor. Perhaps, we are no longer as dependent on him cleaning up the mess. We may not suffer quite as much without him.

This is the first I'm hearing this and it is a very interesting point. But can we really use last year's data as a predictor for this year? Consider the following two factors.

First, Arenas was out for the season last year for all intents and purposes. That alone improved our perimeter defense, which would make the center's job easier. Assuming that the predcitions about Gil's return are accurate, he'll be playing a majority of the games this year. Not having Haywood back there to clean up his mistakes could be disastrous.

Second, the years that Haywood had the huge +/- differential were when he was being backed up by Etan and Ruffin. Last year he was backed up by an ever improving Andray Blatche. This year Etan is back and with EJ's recent comments about matching Blatche up with perimeter players, we're also likely to see Songaila at C even more than we did last year.

I'll throw in a third one factor for free - slower pace and more minutes for Haywood. The team gave up less points as a whole, while Haywood was on the floor for a higher percentage of those points. So it would make sense that his +/- numbers would drop (based on my understanding of the +/- statistic). With Gil presumably back on the floor we're back to the races. Not to mention that were Haywood healthy he'd likely lose minutes to Etan and that would mean a return higher +/- numbers.

My point is that I don't think you can use last year's numbers as a predictor for this year because the factors that contributed to those numbers will probably not be present. It could very well be a return to the typical defensive numbers under EJ. Heck, if Blatche were to start at C it's possible that we could see him have similar +/- differentials to what Haywood has traditionally put up.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I can't believe you people are even considering benching Stevenson. Without Haywood, Stevenson is the only guy on the team who can play above-average defense.

Regarding Doc's original challenge, Pradmaster over at BulletsForever.com had a good point. In years past, Haywood's on/off differential on defense was terrific. Basically, when he was on the floor, we were average defensively, and when he was off, we were among the worse defenses in the history of the NBA. That may have partially attributable to the system (or lack thereof). The rest of the team was really bad at sticking to their man and there was less accountability overall. We played matador defense and just hoped Haywood would clean up the mess.

But under Randy Ayers, our defense has more structure and accountability. It's notable that Haywood's defensive on/off differential last year was much less significant. We were only 1.5 points better defensively when he was on the floor. Perhaps, we are no longer as dependent on him cleaning up the mess. We may not suffer quite as much without him.

I can't believe you forgot Etan backed up or started ahead of Haywood in years past.

Before Etan's heart issue, I posted that the Wizards played like a 60-loss team with Thomas at C and played like a 60-win team with Haywood. Last season the Wizards had Blatche or at times Jamison at C (with Songaila at PF). Wasn't as bad as having Etan in there. I think that's one of the reasons the Wizards were surprisingly competitive--no Etan at C.

As for suggesting not having Stevenson in the lineup I'll simply say I'd bet you good money Butler's a better SG than DeShawn. I'd take my chances with OPEC launching threes as a SF, with Butler, Jamison, and Blatche in there. I'd also take my chances that McGuire could get a lot more rebounds than DeShawn and that he'd find his game.

Best of all with not starting DeShawn I'd be very happy with Stevenson as a sixth man. Ginobilii's done it. Posey did it. With DeShawn being able to move his feet on defense and with him being a streaky three point shooter he'd be a very good sub.

Not starting DeShawn doesn't mean I wouldn't still find him 25 mins at least every game.

[doclinkin]

Second, the years that Haywood had the huge +/- differential were when he was being backed up by Etan and Ruffin. Last year he was backed up by an ever improving Andray Blatche. This year Etan is back and with EJ's recent comments about matching Blatche up with perimeter players, we're also likely to see Songaila at C even more than we did last year.

I'll throw in a third one factor for free - slower pace and more minutes for Haywood. The team gave up less points as a whole, while Haywood was on the floor for a higher percentage of those points. So it would make sense that his +/- numbers would drop (based on my understanding of the +/- statistic).

I was about to make this same point, I don't remember if I said it on Bulletsforever. Andray's improvement, and possibly Etan's absence may have made some part of the difference in the +/- category. Dray taking the starting position on merit (and the sudden development of one other frontcourt player) is the key for any stalling action while we wait for health, in my opinion. Unless somehow Etan were to come back and even better player than he ever was, which is unlikely, probability-wise.

If Dray isn't ready, fast, it's a lost season. A rebuilding year. That's not a total loss, sometimes you take a step forward by regrouping and gaining good experience. Just saying, if health remains as it is today (pray for status quo and better) it's all gonna pivot around Dray's improvement until the starters come back healthy.

That said, Gil was much improved defensively in early returns last year. We'll see who the new Gil is when he makes it all the way back. But if we still can't score without him, it's gonna be much the same. Nick Young needs to step it up from the bench and keep the bleeding even, punish second team defenders. If we hit a scoring drought I would not be surprised to see him start a couple games before it's clear that's a maybe bad idea.

But otherwise, who else is scoring from the backcourt? If N1 could pass at all, we'd be deadly. Too bad.

[nate33]

I can't believe you forgot Etan backed up or started ahead of Haywood in years past.

Before Etan's heart issue, I posted that the Wizards played like a 60-loss team with Thomas at C and played like a 60-win team with Haywood. Last season the Wizards had Blatche or at times Jamison at C (with Songaila at PF). Wasn't as bad as having Etan in there. I think that's one of the reasons the Wizards were surprisingly competitive--no Etan at C.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not at all optimistic about the loss of Haywood. I'm just desperately looking for a reason to hope. You may be well be right that the reduction of Haywood's usually fabulous defensive on/off differential has more to do with Blatche replacing Etan as Haywood's backup, than it does the new defensive system.

As for suggesting not having Stevenson in the lineup I'll simply say I'd bet you good money Butler's a better SG than DeShawn. I'd take my chances with OPEC launching threes as a SF, with Butler, Jamison, and Blatche in there. I'd also take my chances that McGuire could get a lot more rebounds than DeShawn and that he'd find his game.

I'm sorry. I think you're a stark raving lunatic if you think that Pecherov isn't a huge dropoff from Stevenson.

The bottom line is that Stevenson >>>> Pecherov. I guess you are arguing that by moving Butler and Jamison to SG and SF, it somehow makes up from the MASSIVE disparity between Stevenson and Pecherov. The problem is that there is no evidence whatsoever that supports the notion that the team plays better with Butler and Jamison at SG and SF respectively. Individually, Jamison is a little better defensively and a little worse offensive at SF. Butler puts up better individual numbers at SG in a very small sample size. However, in each of the past 3 seasons, the team has fared dramatically better with Jamison at PF rather than SF (going by point differential and W%) and the team has fared slightly better with Butler at SF rather than SG (in small sample sizes).

I'm not opposed with experimenting with a big lineup for stretches, but I certainly wouldn't start from Day 1 with Stevenson on the bench and I absolutely wouldn't bench Stevenson in favor of Stewie Pecherov. Pecherov is arguably the worst player on the team right now. I'd go with a big man tandem of Blatche + Etan, or Songaila + Blatche long before I'd play Pecherov.

[doclinkin]

I'd play JaVale + Dray before I'd play Pech out there. I expect JVMcG quickly takes Pech's minutes this year.

[miller31time]

Other than Pesh's ability to miraculously make a three once in a blue moon, I don't see anything he does better than McGee (which doesn't really say much about JaVale so much as it speaks volumes of Pesh's incredible suckitude).

I see no reason for Opec to be ahead in a rotation against McGee, whatsoever.

[LyricalRico]

I'd play JaVale + Dray before I'd play Pech out there. I expect JVMcG quickly takes Pech's minutes this year.

First of all, I love "JVMcG". Totally bril, doc (as always).

Second, I agree 100%. Man, if McGee can surpass the minimum expectations and actually contribute, he simultaneaously makes Etan, Pecherov, and Songaila expendable. And if Dee Brown looks like a legit 2nd stringer, that makes AD expendable (assuming Gil is healthy at some point ever).

Etan+Song+AD+Pesh+09first isn't the worst package out there, especially if the first 3 can raise their value with Haywood and Arenas out.

[MJG]

I'm with just about everyone on the idea that OPec should in no way be playing minutes ahead of McGee. OPec is like a poor man's Pat Garrity out there. McGee, we're not sure exactly what we have in him yet, but it couldn't possibly be much worse than that.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I can't believe you forgot Etan backed up or started ahead of Haywood in years past.

Before Etan's heart issue, I posted that the Wizards played like a 60-loss team with Thomas at C and played like a 60-win team with Haywood. Last season the Wizards had Blatche or at times Jamison at C (with Songaila at PF). Wasn't as bad as having Etan in there. I think that's one of the reasons the Wizards were surprisingly competitive--no Etan at C.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not at all optimistic about the loss of Haywood. I'm just desperately looking for a reason to hope. You may be well be right that the reduction of Haywood's usually fabulous defensive on/off differential has more to do with Blatche replacing Etan as Haywood's backup, than it does the new defensive system.

As for suggesting not having Stevenson in the lineup I'll simply say I'd bet you good money Butler's a better SG than DeShawn. I'd take my chances with OPEC launching threes as a SF, with Butler, Jamison, and Blatche in there. I'd also take my chances that McGuire could get a lot more rebounds than DeShawn and that he'd find his game.

I'm sorry. I think you're a stark raving lunatic if you think that Pecherov isn't a huge dropoff from Stevenson.

The bottom line is that Stevenson >>>> Pecherov. I guess you are arguing that by moving Butler and Jamison to SG and SF, it somehow makes up from the MASSIVE disparity between Stevenson and Pecherov. The problem is that there is no evidence whatsoever that supports the notion that the team plays better with Butler and Jamison at SG and SF respectively. Individually, Jamison is a little better defensively and a little worse offensive at SF. Butler puts up better individual numbers at SG in a very small sample size. However, in each of the past 3 seasons, the team has fared dramatically better with Jamison at PF rather than SF (going by point differential and W%) and the team has fared slightly better with Butler at SF rather than SG (in small sample sizes).

I'm not opposed with experimenting with a big lineup for stretches, but I certainly wouldn't start from Day 1 with Stevenson on the bench and I absolutely wouldn't bench Stevenson in favor of Stewie Pecherov. Pecherov is arguably the worst player on the team right now. I'd go with a big man tandem of Blatche + Etan, or Songaila + Blatche long before I'd play Pecherov.

nate, I NEVER said Pecherov was better than Stevenson.

Further, I NEVER said Pecherov isn't the worst player on the team. Could well be.

All I did was respond to doc's question of what I'd do with the lineup.

I even said the team might not be good but would have a strong bench. Sometimes having a better player off the bench works best.

Where I philosphically disagree with you is in the notion that Stevenson is >>>>>> than Pecherov. I could easily say Pecherov is >>>> rebounding the ball. Pecherov is 22 years old. I remember a time when Stevenson was so atrocious shooting the ball that folks cringed ... before he really found his game last year, at age 25 or so.

My only point in putting Pecherov in my lineup is that at 7 fi he could shoot threes like a Radmanovic. He might start hitting them, just like DeShawn did last season.

Or, he could prove to be one atrocious basketball player--which would make EG look like he failed.

As a guy who wanted Millsap over Pecherov I still think Pecherov could EVENTUALLY be a guy who hits threes and rebounds, like Mehmet Okur.

[doclinkin]

I'd play JaVale + Dray before I'd play Pech out there. I expect JVMcG quickly takes Pech's minutes this year.

First of all, I love "JVMcG". Totally bril, doc (as always).

I was gonna call him Jammin Java, but that's got bad connotations for some on here.

Apologies my man daSwami, sick bastid here, I read the reco-journal and think: HEY now that's a great nickname for the kid...

[Wizards2Lottery]

Pecherov is not a three point shooter. He just pretends to be one.

He sucks at every phase of the game.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

How's Pecherov doing so far?

http://www.nba.com/wizards/stats/

So far in preseason, Pecherov's shooting a pathetic .273 ( 6-22 FG). However, he's 4-9 (.444 3PT) from three point range. (Hmmm, he's 2-13 every where else but 4-9 from deep. He didn't pretend the ball in the hoop from deep four times.) The only conclusion I make is the three point shot is the only shot Opec CAN make ....

In 55 mins of play (18.3 per game over 3 games) Oleksiy Pecherov has led the team in rebounds at 5.7 and he has scored 6.7 per game. (20 points and 17 rebounds in 55 minutes. Not pathetic IMO) My opinion is the stats are pretty nondescript, but he's rebounded WELL.

Compared to other Wizards:

Stevenson is shooting .286 and so is Dee Brown. Both are 6-21 FG. Not much better than Oleksiy's 6-22.

Stevenson has made 5 three pointers. 5-15 (.333 3PT)

No one else on the team has made more than 2 three pointers. Dee Brown is 2-8 and Dermarr is 2-10 from deep. Pecherov, the guy who supposedly sucks at everything is 4-9.

Javale McGee has impressed. In 57 minutes he has 35 points and 20 rebound and 5 blockss, with a VERY NICE .520 FG. Most impressive is he's been to the line 18 times. Comparison to Pecherov is if Pecherov is a stiff so far he's rebounding the exact same as the uber athlete.

MY FINAL POINTS:

1. Preseason stats don't mean jack but this is the time of year that players get cut and lineups get set. If all were fair you'd simply just look at the numbers and the players' +/- to see who's doing well. My whole point for introducing Pecherov to any conversation is I SUSPECT it the guy played with the starters he'd SHOOT THE THREE WELL and HE'D REBOUND WELL. If you don't see how I can make that leap you don't like stats that would seem to indicate I'm right -- even if they are preseason stats.

2. I think a lot of you guys just pile on when it's popular to do so. Right now it's Pecherov season.

3. We SHOULD BE UPSET OR WORRIED right now because the team looks like what Lyrical Rico wrote earlier: UNSTABLE. New contracts, injuries to Haywood and as far as I'm concerned Jamison's already nicked, combined with the loss of Roger Mason which I believe will be felt. So far, the teams shooting I'd venture to say the worst FG% in the league in preseason at .372 as a team. Getting outscore 77-87 a game. Ouch! My point is this season's going to suck most likely and that's the time to play young guys.

4. I think things are so bad I'd play Pecherov over Etan and that I'd bring Stevenson off the bench and use Caron at SG. The REAL REASON is that without Haywood in there I want BOTH BLATCHE AND ANOTHER BIG in there besides Jamison. I never explained but I believe Blatche will foul out quickly but maybe with a perimeter big stretching the defense it would stimulate more scoring and rebounding. I'd bring Stevenson off the bench quickly for Blatche or Pecherov but I'd let those to learn by baptism of fire.

PS I KNOW an NBA coach would never bench starter Stevenson or past starter Thomas but in this case I would. I'd make those guys a strong second unit and I'd end the game with whomever was most effective during the game. I want young guys to play.

5. I WOULD LOSE MORE GAMES WITH YOUNG BIGS PLAYING and with Butler at SG and Jamison at SF until, hopefully, Gil and Brendan return. My way, Pecherov or McGuire develop and the second unit is stronger making trades a real possibility later on.

doclinkin got this started saying what would I do. Now that I've alienated myself over defending Stewie, I challenge the rest of you who haven't already stepped up to name your lineups and reasons why.

[DCZards]

As for suggesting not having Stevenson in the lineup I'll simply say I'd bet you good money Butler's a better SG than DeShawn.

I just don't see CB as a regular SG. Yes, he can play the position in spurts but, imo, he doesn't have the handle, the outside shot or the quickness on defense to play extended minutes at SG. And CB is not very good at all at taking his opponent off the dribble. In fact, he often ends up committing an offensive foul when he tries to penetrate. I love Tough Juice but he's no SG.