Armchair Coaching, Scouting, etc thread.

[Dat2U]

As for suggesting not having Stevenson in the lineup I'll simply say I'd bet you good money Butler's a better SG than DeShawn.

I just don't see CB as a regular SG. Yes, he can play the position in spurts but, imo, he doesn't have the handle, the outside shot or the quickness on defense to play extended minutes at SG. And CB is not very good at all at taking his opponent off the dribble. In fact, he often ends up committing an offensive foul when he tries to penetrate. I love Tough Juice but he's no SG.

This is one of the rare times where I agree with DCZards. Although undersized, Caron is a natural SF. That's his best position by far. He might be effective at SG, but he's an all-star SF. Also, sliding Caron down to SG & Jamison to SF really makes the Wizards a slow & unathletic basketball team.

One alternative that I would be open to is Dominic McGuire on the perimeter alongside Jamison & Caron. Dom leaves alot to be desired offensively, but he's got all the tools to be a very good perimeter defender with his length & athleticism. Dom might eventually be effective in a Jared Jeffries type of role.

We could go with a lineup of:

PF Jamison
SF Butler
C Blatche
SG McGuire
PG Daniels

This might give us the best chance for success with Wood & Gil out. Alot would be dependent on Blatche stepping up, staying out of foul trouble and becoming a relatively reliable 3rd option offensively while improving as a weakside defender.

In fact, outside of health, I think Blatche is the most important factor this year in whether the Wizards will sink or swim this offseason.

[Pradamaster]

Don't get me wrong. I'm not at all optimistic about the loss of Haywood. I'm just desperately looking for a reason to hope. You may be well be right that the reduction of Haywood's usually fabulous defensive on/off differential has more to do with Blatche replacing Etan as Haywood's backup, than it does the new defensive system.

Like Nate mentioned, it was more of a hope-for-the-best post that threw out something else to consider than a bold declaration. In fact, the title wasn't "We'll survive the loss of Haywood," but rather "We're better equipped to survive the loss of Brendan Haywood." Reasons being, we have a system that spreads responsibility around and we have Blatche hopefully playing more center minutes. I also hope, (probably against hope), that Etan will be more effective as a help defender in Ayers' system, just because he should have less responsibility to deal with all the penetration we used to allow. Brendan was always a smart defender that could cover for everyone, and Etan isn't. My feeling is he has the physical tools to be a good defender, but not the brain. Maybe under Ayers, where helpside defense is simpler, his deficiencies will be masked.

Plus, maybe McGee progresses better than expected. He has to be better than Ruffin, right?

The bottom line, as far as I see it, is that losing Haywood for the season would have absolutely destroyed us in 2005, 2006 or even 2007 (when he was basically not playing at the end of the year, our defense sucked). Now? We might actually be able to survive it. Key word being "might."

[pancakes3]

I don't know about butler not being able to handle the SG position. He has a similar game to Pierce, who has played tons of minutes at SG before Ray Allen came into town. In fact, Butler may have a better game as Pierce because their perimeter games are comparable, and Butler has a better post-up offense. I also disagree with that Butler doesn't have the requisite dribble to play SG. He's not Ai in terms of dribble penetration, but I've never seen Butler dribble to the hole and think... gee... that was awkward, as i often have when I see Blatche do a similar move.

But, I do think that we should start the game with our best possible lineup and though Butler has an absolute advantage over DS at SG, comparative advantage dictates that he should be at SF where the team can be most effective. Until we have a PF that would be better at PF than DS at SG, our forward spots are locked up with Butler/Jamison.

As for letting the young kids play, i'm all for that, except not as a starting unit. A starting unit of veterans would keep the game closer than young guys who would likely shoot us out of the game as soon as we hit a 10 point deficit (nick young... andray blatche... cough cough). However I wouldn't be opposed to giving Young, Maguire, Blatche, McGee, or Opec 20 minutes a game, if it meant limiting Butler and Jamison to 30mpg until gilbert and brenden comes back.

[fugop]

Butler should have no problem on offense at SG, especially if he's alongside Daniels, who won't need help with ball handling duties. It's on the defensive end that I worry, especially if Jamison is the SF beside him. Butler has decent speed/quickness for a SF, but mediocre-to-poor for a SG.

I'd be ok with one of the young bigs in the starting lineup, either Blatche or McGee at C. But I'm cool with Etan getting the nod as well.

I agree that Etan's defensive struggles are very system-based, though I think it's much more physical than mental -- he's just not big or long enough to do everything he needs to as the only interior presence. Based on observation (and at this point, sketchy memory), I think he does fine, man-up, against strong interior players. I think he's a nice asset against Okafor, J. O'Neal, Randolph, Howard, Dalembert, Horford, even Perkins. He's got a solid individual matchup against those guys, if he isn't forced to leave them to help with Bosh, Garnett, Lewis, Brand, et al. But that's not been the way our defense has operated historically, and I don't know that it's going to be so different this year.

As an aside, I'm really annoyed by how good Hibbert has looked in the preseason, and think that he's the sort of guy who would just kill Etan, much like Z. Hell, at least McGee probably has a standing reach advantage over Hibbs. McGee is just a giant.

[doclinkin]

Thing is without Haywood we're waaay small again in our starting unit defensively:

6'4" Daniels -- not small but slowing down a bit, matched against the speed position.
6'5" DSteve -- about average though the best players at this position tend to be 6'6" or so. Problem is as our best defender DSteve often shifts to SF to protect CB from foul troubles.
6'5" Caron. -- 'best shape of his life' means maybe he's less footslow laterally? He's strong, but the mega SFs (6'8"+) are occasionally mismatch for him.
6'8" Jamison. -- was better this past year, but not great.

Dropping Etan into the center would be a mistake AFAIC. Having missed a year, with new defensive concepts, recovering timing and confidence, and his legs & wind, one year older, and playing a position where he's fighting a mismatch most games anyway -- would seem to be a tough assignment for the guy.

Seems to me to make the most sense to start Dray Blatche. He works hardest when he's expected to perform. This is the sort of kid who responds well to a hardass coach, never seems to take it personally when he's called out in the media by his teammates. At the center position his footspeed is less of a liability -- if he's already near the basket he doesn't have to reach and chase the action as much to defend the lane. There aren't many big beast centers who will purely throw him around, he could stand to learn to flop better, but is coordinated enough to pull it off. And he rebounds well even in traffic with a little effort. Size is good, in past years we've mentioned we have to squint sometimes to see if that's Big Wood or Dray out there.

On offense he's too quick for his match-up, especially in the highpost. He knows the offense now and a couple times a game will make the right, smart pass to the cutter. With more repetitions I expect he and Daniels could form a good pick and roll threat, but better still with his soft hands I can see Caron setting him up well to finish in the paint unguarded.

And that's key for me. McGee has no real idea what he's doing out there. Does well on pure length and raw athleticism. That works well for a high energy uptempo second line, but would not necessarily benefit players like Caron or Jamison who work very well in the context of the offense.

We'll have some ups and downs for certain. But seizing a leadership role will be key for Dray's maturation. He's ball-smart, with good instincts. Jamison alluded to it in the paper the other day but the Center should be quarterback of the defense -- since he can see the whole court with his back to the basket. He calls out the help assignments etc. Dray is developing well, but will be a reliable player once he can take this role. Force him to keep his focus. Then when Haywood comes back he can carry this strength to the 2nd unit and help them develop the same way.

Absent that focus, yeah he could go either way.

[miller31time]

Nice post, doc. I agree with what you said about Etan and feel that, for this team at this time, he's best suited as a role player (and situational starter, say, against teams like Orlando).

McGee is too raw to start at this point. If he REALLY shows us something with the minutes he's given, and both Dray and Etan under-perform, then I could see a case for starting him, but under the current circumstances, I just don't think it would be a wise move.

[fugop]

Do people think there's any chance McGee could see time at PF? He seems to have the quickness to play the position, even out on the perimeter against the Bosh's of the world. The idea of nineteen feet of interior defense -- McGee/Haywood -- makes me salivate in an unhealthy, unnatural way.

[LyricalRico]

Do people think there's any chance McGee could see time at PF? He seems to have the quickness to play the position, even out on the perimeter against the Bosh's of the world. The idea of nineteen feet of interior defense -- McGee/Haywood -- makes me salivate in an unhealthy, unnatural way.

I've always contended that quickness doesn't necessarily make someone a good defender. I'll take a guy who's a step slow but understands how to play defense over an ultra-quick guy who has no idea what he's doing (which is the impression I have of McGee).

With the league gravitating towards smaller, more perimeter oriented PFs (Josh Smith, David West, etc) I just don't think we can live with McGee out there on an island. Frankly we can't live with Blatche either but I would rather have McGee worry about helping on everything below the foul line instead of chasing guys around the perimeter.

[doclinkin]

With the league gravitating towards smaller, more perimeter oriented PFs (Josh Smith, David West, etc) I just don't think we can live with McGee out there on an island. Frankly we can't live with Blatche either but I would rather have McGee worry about helping on everything below the foul line instead of chasing guys around the perimeter.

Thing is big JaVa has shown that he can occasionally block a perimeter shot from inside the foul line. If he continues to develop he acts as a one-man zone for us.

I have no problem with him on court in an ultra-big line, whether you call him the 4, 5, or 3 even, depending on the opponent. Defensively he can take up a ton of room just by sitting down in his stance and spreading his wings. Players like LeBron will encoutner a few 'Whut the F***?' moments per game deciding how to drive into all those trees. Especially the first time an LBJ jumper is plucked out of the air like a ripe plum.

Offensively JVMcG's got a decent repertoire that's developing nicely. If the young bigs all continue to improve there ain't many teams in the league who can match the Wiz on pure Huge. But it'll take a couple years to really see full benefit.

[fugop]

I was thinking of him along the Tayshaun Prince model, only as an absurdly long PF instead of an absurdly long SF. I'd like to see if he can use his length to smother quicker perimeter PFs.

My real question is if McGee/Haywood could work together on the court.

[nate33]

When AD went down last year, we still managed to play reasonably effectively with Stevenson and Mason sharing PG duties. Stevenson isn't a creator, but he can take care of the ball as a PG with minimal turnovers. I also think that the fitter, trimmer Butler can play more minutes at SG this year. I wouldn't mind seeing the following lineup:

PG Stevenson
SG Butler
SF Jamison
PF Blatche
C McGee

Butler would be the primary ball handler, with Stevenson helping him out. That lineup is tall, athletic, and skilled. Everybody can shoot, everybody has good hands, everybody can rebound well for their position (except perhaps, McGee). If backcourt pressure forces too many turnovers, Daniels or Brown could replace Stevenson.

The lineup might also work fairly well with Songaila in place of either McGee or Blatche. I know he is slow-footed, but Songaila is a smart player and a good passer. We might need his passing in a lineup without a true PG. Songaila's medicore rebounding would be offset by the rebounding advantage we have at guard and small forward.

[pancakes3]

my first inclination is to say that's too young/inexperienced/scrawny of a front court and they'll get banged around too easily but honestly, our offense and defense had never had that great of a down low presence anyway. Haywood is a lone bright spot in a long line of popeye jones's and Jahidi Whites. Also with Blatche and McGee checking in at around 240-250 apiece, they're not total flyweights either. And though McGee has impressed me fully in the preseason, i'm not going to give him the starting nod just yet. That lineup with Thomas at C would be more effective and not let the likes of Jason Maxiel, Ben Wallace, or Kendrick Perkins bully us down there too bad. McGee would be an intriguing change of pace against Howard since there's no chance Thomas would slow him down anyway, we might as well try and draw him from the paint.

As for the frontcourt, I'm not worried bout DS handling the point. Our offense flows through weaving, cutting, and screening so a traditional point man isn't as essential. Stevenson is more than capable of bringing the ball up and making that initial pass.

[nate33]

Sorry. I didn't mean to imply that that should be the starting lineup. It's just a lineup that I'd like to see on the court at times. We have so few reliable guards that it would probably pay off to play Butler in the backcourt a bit. I guess what I'm saying is that I'd rather see more McGee and Blatche, and less Dixon and Dee Brown.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

When AD went down last year, we still managed to play reasonably effectively with Stevenson and Mason sharing PG duties. Stevenson isn't a creator, but he can take care of the ball as a PG with minimal turnovers. I also think that the fitter, trimmer Butler can play more minutes at SG this year. I wouldn't mind seeing the following lineup:

PG Stevenson
SG Butler
SF Jamison
PF Blatche
C McGee

Butler would be the primary ball handler, with Stevenson helping him out. That lineup is tall, athletic, and skilled. Everybody can shoot, everybody has good hands, everybody can rebound well for their position (except perhaps, McGee). If backcourt pressure forces too many turnovers, Daniels or Brown could replace Stevenson.

The lineup might also work fairly well with Songaila in place of either McGee or Blatche. I know he is slow-footed, but Songaila is a smart player and a good passer. We might need his passing in a lineup without a true PG. Songaila's medicore rebounding would be offset by the rebounding advantage we have at guard and small forward.

I'd have absolutely no problem at all with that lineup, nate.

You could also use McGuire in place of McGee or Blatche.

[Dat2U]

^Defensively I think that lineup would be a disaster. DeShawn really can't guard quick PGs. Caron really can't guard SGs and so on. Yes, its a big lineup but its also a slow one.

I agree that we need to see Blatche & McGee get minutes to further their development but for all their physical tools neither can play a lick of team defense. It's a risk to play those two together at this stage.

I do think we need one or the other on the floor at all times with Wood out. Maybe McGee & Jamison, Blatche & Jamison, Blatche & Etan or even Songaila & McGee. We should pair a vet with one of the young guys, to provide some leadership to the kids while there out their.

I have been a fan of seeing McGuire at SG since last year. His skills are no worse than Jared Jeffries and with his length & athleticism he could become a damn good perimeter defender.

[nate33]

^Defensively I think that lineup would be a disaster. DeShawn really can't guard quick PGs. Caron really can't guard SGs and so on. Yes, its a big lineup but its also a slow one.

Stevenson is a better defender of PG's than Daniels. Butler at SG could work against some matchups, but I agree it's not ideal against quicker, energetic types like Rip Hamilton or D Wade. He'd do fine against the likes of JRich or Wally Z though.

Again, I think it boils down to the fact that McGee is a better option than Dixon. Assuming the core 8-man rotation is: Daniels, Stevenson, Young, Butler, Jamison, Blatche, Songaila and Etan; whenever there's a need for a 9th man, I'd rather it be McGee than Dixon. This is a way to make it work.

[doclinkin]

Interesting to see the adjustment from NJ to Detroit. Caron and Jamison were bound to have bounce-back games, but the increased roles for Darius Songaila, Dixon, and Nick Young was intriguing. Offensively.

Defensively the three point woes were unchanged, and rebounding was gruesome. And opponent FG% was ass. Daniels and DSteve look awkward next to each other. I agree with Nate33's concept that the pair should be split, play JDix next to DS2 and N1 next to Daniels.

BUt what to do about the Pivot position? Blatche is trying to do too much, when he's trying to do anything at all. Etan is the same Etan, not skilled, not big, but strong works hard. Darius is the skilled version of Etan, without the muscle. The offense works better with Darius' midrange ability. JaVale is a raw energy option but can't be relied on for anything beyond an X-factor. Hopefully Dray responds well to the benching and comes back strong.

So what's next. Who do we meet next and what's the game plan. What adjustment. How long before Nick Young takes the starting spot?

[LyricalRico]

So what's next. Who do we meet next and what's the game plan. What adjustment. How long before Nick Young takes the starting spot?

I don't think Young will start because his scoring carries that bench group. What the team needs is a combo forward who can be relied on to score 8-10ppg off the bench. That was supposed to be Blatche but he's blowing his chance.

Maybe more minutes for McGuire with Butler playing some 2?

[doclinkin]

So what's next. Who do we meet next and what's the game plan. What adjustment. How long before Nick Young takes the starting spot?

I don't think Young will start because his scoring carries that bench group. What the team needs is a combo forward who can be relied on to score 8-10ppg off the bench. That was supposed to be Blatche but he's blowing his chance.

Maybe more minutes for McGuire with Butler playing some 2?

Except DMac's been no great shakes either.

I dunno about the bench argument. It's tough to keep fighting back from a deficit. I'm about of a mind to think we should _start_ a squad of AD, Nick, Darius, Caron, Jamison crew and tire out opponent starters, running and gunning. A reliable 3rd scoring option helps CB and Jamsion get loose. Nick and AD make a big Back court.

Then Bring Etan, Blatche and Javale off the bench as a high energy megasize clusterfluck. But as of today I don't see many great options.
'
I like the scoring last game. Except for the opponent's scoring as well.

[LyricalRico]

I dunno about the bench argument. It's tough to keep fighting back from a deficit. I'm about of a mind to think we should _start_ a squad of AD, Nick, Darius, Caron, Jamison crew and tire out opponent starters, running and gunning. A reliable 3rd scoring option helps CB and Jamsion get loose. Nick and AD make a big Back court.

Oh I agree with this wholeheartedly. My post was referencing EJ's tendency to favor leaving a scorer on the bench. This is exactly why I wanted to trade for a guy like Tim Thomas or somebody who could give us some frontcourt scoring off the bench so that we could move Young to the starting lineup if necessary and still leave EJ an option in reserve.

As for suggesting more minutes for DMac, that was in response to the rebounding problem. Our current situation won't allow us to solve all of our problems. But if we can get the offense going and hold our own on the boards we should be able to stay in most games.