The RealGM Wizards Board Draft Thread 2008/2009

[pancakes3]

I also noticed that Harden exerts minimal effort on defense due to the zone but i feel like it's unfair to judge his defensive abilities based on that. A lot of the action seemed to be funneled to the other side of the zone to take advantage of the matchup on their point guard. The few times they went to a 2-3 and Harden was playing the baseline and he got 2 really nice, clean blocks as a result of it - one of them man-to-man, the other on help defense. I'm not saying that Harden's a great defender because of it, but it does suggest that the zone isn't there to mask his defensive deficiencies but rather their PG's.

Also while i agree that he's no all-star, i feel like he's the best option at 2-guard in the draft - a position of need on the 'zards. He's got prototypical size, excellent shooting, and great instincts for the game. I hope nobody thinks that he's the second coming of Brandon Roy because they'll be sorely disappointed. However i do see him as the second and more glorious coming of Mason(who albeit was a 2nd rounder).

Some people might want to maximize a top 5 pick in terms of talent, but i'm a big supporter of drafting based on need. Harden might be overrated as a top 5 pick, but he plugs the hole that we need at SG. Hill, Aminu, Griffin, etc. would be relegated to the bench playing minimal minutes and we know this for sure because McGee can't even get in 20 mpg when there are no Centers on the roster. A SG is the only use of a pick that would upgrade our roster and have a meaningful impact improving our team and Harden's the best prospect out there among the SG's.

That being said, i'm not dead set on drafting Harden. He does have shortcomings - his handles and being overvalued in the draft being the most obvious. If/when we trade down to pick up Curry that would be a great move for us since we would fulfill our need at SG as well as not overpaying for it.


SUMMARY:
There are no players in the draft that could start over our current projected starters for next season except those at shooting guard, and even their chances are iffy. Considering all of our projected starters are all inked to long-term deals, and are very talented at their respective positions except for shooting guard, it would be logical to upgrade our team by draft or trade at the shooting guard position.

[doclinkin]

Sorry I missed the game. But looking at the scoreboard - the great Holliday - who is typically in the top 5 on most mocks - 0 points, 1 assist, 3 to's. And who guarded him most of the game? Wouldn't that have been Harden? The same Harden who nearly had a quadruple double? Was he trying to be Superman?

Quadruple double is funny. No, Harden rarely faced the guards in the zone. In the 3 guard 2 forward set that Sendek runs with the match-up zone Harden seems to most often take a role as space filler to clog lanes when up top, then drop down to grab boards and body the wing forwards when they cut underneath. But he doesn't move much, since the defender freely switches on every play. None of his teammates seems like a particularly athletic and active defender except Jeff Pendergraph, but the system works alright regardless. An outside sharpshooting team could have made headaches for the Sun Devils (and they hit above 40% from outside) but Sendek can match 3-for-3 with almost any team, most games. (Both teams tried 18 3pters. The SunDevils hit 80% of theirs. Their offense has 3 outside gunners who hit with fair proficiency.)

Curry is not going to be the off the ball player in the NBA that his father was - He needs the ball to be at his best.

Well sorta. Curry is a great off-the-ball player. Playing next to Jason Richards last year he drove teams nuts sprinting through staggered screens and dodging through picket fences. He can fit through less space than most of his defenders, and would often use the opponents pick to shake his own man. Last year he was mostly catch and shoot, I saw a few sweet passes, but doubted he'd be able to carry the load once teams could dump triple teams on him when he had to walk it up every play. This year he's shown he can carry it too, and excel. So if your point is that he makes other players even better when he has the ball, I'd agree. But his catch-and-shoot skills are top notch, his range is even deeper than his pops'.

I understand and agree with all the arguments about position and need. With $111 mills invested we basically have to bank on the expectation that Gil returns. And if not, we'll have plenty of lotto chances to replace him. I suspect the team thinks the same way. Okay granted, we have zero production in the backcourt without Gil. No pts, no deep ball, no assists, no FT attempts. But Gil's gotta come back, right? and maybe Critt develops. And nevermind a Nick Young, we also lack depth at the off-guard. For instance.

My point is, like p'cakes says, we're unlikely to draft a starter. Harden or no. But the truth is I doubt we stand pat with this roster. Ernie already warned the fans not to invest too many hopes in the draft, he's willing to trade. I'd suspect he'd like to pick up a quality veteran at a need position. Get good value in a Blatche or Jamison, or Caron trade.

Is James Harden better than any player+pick combo we could fetch with a Jamison + the #2-5 pick? If we trade down, we take best player available, regardless of position. And think about your tiers.

Who is the best PG, SG, SF, PF, C? And by how much?

Way I see it S'Curry is yards ahead of his competition at 1. And maybe can be gotten for good value at a later pick. because of the various doubts. Though the Tourney may make it harder to get him late.

[Wizardspride]

I know he won't be a Wizard, but has Dajuan Summers played himself into the bottom half of the lottery?

[Ruzious]

SUMMARY:
There are no players in the draft that could start over our current projected starters for next season except those at shooting guard, and even their chances are iffy. Considering all of our projected starters are all inked to long-term deals, and are very talented at their respective positions except for shooting guard, it would be logical to upgrade our team by draft or trade at the shooting guard position.

My preference at the 2 position is to wait till the second round - if - they think Danny Green will be there. Between him and Young, we'd have a solid combination. If not, I'd be looking to trade down to mid first for Henderson.

If we didn't have Gil, I could see trading down to get Curry, but I don't see him succeeding as an off guard in the NBA. He simply doesn't have the body for it - as we've seen with Dixon - who is every bit as tough and competitive as Curry is - along with having basically the same physical attributes. Curry has to play the point, imo - or he's not going to excell. And he will get wiped out on screens all day - just like Dixon.

What to do with the first pick? There are players I really like that'll be picked mid to late 1st - Patrick Patterson is a MUCH better defensive player than people realize imo; DeJuan Blair would add a needed rebounder; I'd much rather have Henderson, Buddinger, or even Terrence Williams than Nick Young. I think Minnesota has a few 1st round picks... and I wouldn't mind getting their pick for next year - using Barely's idea of trying to get a top future pick (though it's too bad McHale will no longer be their GM).

[barelyawake]

Doc, I see everything you are saying about Curry... on a college level. My problem comes when translating his skillset to the NBA.... especially on anything close to our current make-up (Arenas or no). I fully understand I could be wrong on this one, but I feel Curry up until a point, and then he becomes more JJ Reddick than Bibby, more Dixon than Tony Parker. I have more faith in Rubio's skillset translating to the NBA -- and I don't have the greatest faith in that either. And I have much more faith that Holiday has the potential to contribute on both ends of the floor than Curry. As I said, I get what you are seeing, and fully realize this is one that could go either way. To me, if the pick is Curry (or to be honest any guard in this draft), I'd rather trade the pick (and Etan plus one) for Des Mas, Joe Smith and the Thunder's 2010 unrestricted. Or JO and Toronto's 2010. Or Bosh and Toronto's 2010 (with Caron added). Or about ten other deals. Again, I could be wrong. But, the test will be not if Curry becomes a good player (he will), but if he is able to be a twoway player who is able to start on a championship team -- which to me is 60/40 against because of his frame/step.

(Edit for jinx)... Funny Ruz, we both got that Dixon vibe at the same time. Didn't read your post pre-posting.

[Rafael122]

I know he won't be a Wizard, but has Dajuan Summers played himself into the bottom half of the lottery?

Yes, IMO, he's always been a lottery pick. It just so happened that this was the year he finally got it together. He's been playing behind Roy and Jeff the last 2 years so we haven't seen much of him in terms of how he can carry team, etc.

Honestly, looking at the potential guys coming out, he's a top 10 pick. He just needs to work on his jump shot.

Thabeet is also a guy I'm interested in to see if he'd fit on the Wizards. Offensively, he's pretty bad, but he's a monster on the boards and he blocks shots like crazy. If we took him though, we'd have to ship out a big, either Darius or Etan. We have way too many bigs.

Edit: Also continue to keep your eye out on Terrence Williams, pretty good defensive player who could probably guard most guards in the NBA. Very quick, and his offensive game is average, but he'd be used in a way where he'd be in the same lineup with McGuire. That way there would be 2 defensive guys to go along with our offensive weapons off the bench.

One guy who has BUST written all over him is Ausin Daye. He weighs what looks to be 150 and he's close to a 7 footer. If he comes out early, its going to be awhile before he contributes. He should stay all 4 years.

[Wizardspride]

I know he won't be a Wizard, but has Dajuan Summers played himself into the bottom half of the lottery?

Yes, IMO, he's always been a lottery pick. It just so happened that this was the year he finally got it together. He's been playing behind Roy and Jeff the last 2 years so we haven't seen much of him in terms of how he can carry team, etc.

What I love the most about him is his size/athleticism. He just looks like an NBA SF. He still needs to work on his ball handling a bit but he's gotten much better at it. Which is why he's getting to the line 7 times per game.

[Ruzious]

I know he won't be a Wizard, but has Dajuan Summers played himself into the bottom half of the lottery?

Yes, IMO, he's always been a lottery pick. It just so happened that this was the year he finally got it together. He's been playing behind Roy and Jeff the last 2 years so we haven't seen much of him in terms of how he can carry team, etc.

Honestly, looking at the potential guys coming out, he's a top 10 pick. He just needs to work on his jump shot.

With Summers, I think he's one of those players where - it all depends on how he does in the conference and NCAA tournaments - with him and Monroe. They both need to show more toughness, imo. If G-town loses and they don't play well, Monroe should probably stay another year, and Summers falls out of the lotto.

[dobrojim]

Nice to see Bob Knight agrees on Curry.

Missed it. What'd he say?

[dobrojim]

Watching Jrue vs Harden right now.

Yeah, i got to watch most of that game. See this is why I can't depend on scouting reports. I got a total different opinion on Jrue. He's good athlete and a good defender but he can't score! He can't throw it the ocean. I didn't see him create off the dribble or anything like that. Maybe that's not his role right now but I'd be scared to draft someone and expect him to do something totally different at the NBA level than what he did in college.

Jrue needs to stay in school. Heck if he keeps playing like that, he won't have a choice but to stay in school.

As for our boy James Harden, my opinion on him doesn't change. The 11 assists were impressive. The 8 TOs were not. UCLA was overplaying him which allowed him to set up some teammates for easy baskets but he had a real tough time getting the ball and getting off a shot. He only took 8 shots tonight. He doesn't have the lift or explosiveness to shoot over guys or go past him. His handles are crafty enough to get to the lane but he's not going to finish against bigger guys, he's more likely to pass at the stage.

Basically I see a nice role player. He's not Brandon Roy. He's pure SG. Slightly undersized and not very athletic. Very skilled, smart & heady guy but not the type you can rely on to create a shot at the end of a possession or game. He may be better coming off of screens on the next level.

As a top 3 pick, he'll be a bust. I think he can have a productive career but he doesn't belong in the top half of the lottery. He looks like a mid-first rounder at best to me. My guess is Kevin McHale will think the world of him.

I'd take Stephon Curry over Harden 10 times out of 10. Not sure how Harden gets rated as a better prospect.

I've not seen Curry since last year. I saw Harden last night and I watched with your
prior impresssions in mind. And I came away in pretty much full agreement. Harden
is not the guy we want this year. He's not worth a top 5 pick.

Agree on Holiday as well. He's not ready yet.

I'd take Curry or Lawson over either of them. Especially in a trade down scenario
where we unload garbage. Lord knows we've got an abundance of garbage to unload.

[dobrojim]

I also noticed that Harden exerts minimal effort on defense due to the zone but i feel like it's unfair to judge his defensive abilities based on that. A lot of the action seemed to be funneled to the other side of the zone to take advantage of the matchup on their point guard. The few times they went to a 2-3 and Harden was playing the baseline and he got 2 really nice, clean blocks as a result of it - one of them man-to-man, the other on help defense. I'm not saying that Harden's a great defender because of it, but it does suggest that the zone isn't there to mask his defensive deficiencies but rather their PG's.

Also while i agree that he's no all-star, i feel like he's the best option at 2-guard in the draft - a position of need on the 'zards. He's got prototypical size, excellent shooting, and great instincts for the game. I hope nobody thinks that he's the second coming of Brandon Roy because they'll be sorely disappointed. However i do see him as the second and more glorious coming of Mason(who albeit was a 2nd rounder).

Some people might want to maximize a top 5 pick in terms of talent, but i'm a big supporter of drafting based on need. Harden might be overrated as a top 5 pick, but he plugs the hole that we need at SG. Hill, Aminu, Griffin, etc. would be relegated to the bench playing minimal minutes and we know this for sure because McGee can't even get in 20 mpg when there are no Centers on the roster. A SG is the only use of a pick that would upgrade our roster and have a meaningful impact improving our team and Harden's the best prospect out there among the SG's.

That being said, i'm not dead set on drafting Harden. He does have shortcomings - his handles and being overvalued in the draft being the most obvious. If/when we trade down to pick up Curry that would be a great move for us since we would fulfill our need at SG as well as not overpaying for it.


SUMMARY:
There are no players in the draft that could start over our current projected starters for next season except those at shooting guard, and even their chances are iffy. Considering all of our projected starters are all inked to long-term deals, and are very talented at their respective positions except for shooting guard, it would be logical to upgrade our team by draft or trade at the shooting guard position.

Given N1's solid play, team leading +/-, is SG really the position of greatest need on
this team given full health?

From what I've seen, I'd take Curry over any G in the draft right now.

[mhd]

I don't think blowing by Greg Paulus is an indication of talent. 80% of the PGs in the country should easily blow by him. He sucks.

I just don't see Lawson as anymore than a sparkplug. He's surrounded by seasoned college talent. Augustine didn't have much of anything at Texas after Durant left.

No way is Lawson a top 10 pick IMO.

1) Hill
2) Griffin
3) Monroe
4) Holliday
5) Rubio
6) Thabeet
7) Harden
8) Tyreke Evans (REALLY loved him coming on since he switched to PG)
9) Aminu
10) Teague

That's a sample that I feel that simply are superior picks.

That's a pretty good list but... It doesn't look like Rubio's coming out - $6 mil buyout and he's supposedly told players... he's waiting another year. Right now, I'd guess Monroe's staying. Holliday needs another year. Aminu is so up and down and 18... I'd guess his decision is 50/50. So, 3 or 4 of your top 10 need to be replaced, imo. Do you have 3 more you'd put ahead of Lawson?

I'll add Derozen to this list. VERY impressive yesterday. He's tough and will fight for rebounds. Solid defender as well. Nic Wise showed me something too. He's a very good shooter, but probably is a 2nd rounder.

I think Curry, Derozen, James Johnson (easily a top 10 talent, but likely won't declare), Buddinger (stock has gone up. I've always loved his all around game), and Terrence Williams would be better picks.

Lawson might go ahead of some of those players, but I doubt he'll be an NBA starting caliber player.

[no D in Hibachi]

I've watched Harden several times and he reminds me a lot of Anthony Peeler. A shorter lefty 2 guard who doesn't possess overly impressive physical talents, but is effective. Peeler was a career long rollplayer, but was selected in the lottery. Harden will be the same.

[dobrojim]

good call

Peeler

or Baby Jordan (H Minor) who was a bigger bust

[Tiago]

I think Curry, Derozen, James Johnson (easily a top 10 talent, but likely won't declare), Buddinger (stock has gone up. I've always loved his all around game), and Terrence Williams would be better picks.

Lawson might go ahead of some of those players, but I doubt he'll be an NBA starting caliber player.

Lawson looks like a 5'9, 5'10 not a 6'0, don't you have the same impression?Lawson plays average D, can pass the ball, I think if he developed his shot, he can become a solid NBA player.

Terrence Williams is a promise, he can do everything with quality,I think he will be a mid-late 1st round pick.

[Ruzious]

I think Curry, Derozen, James Johnson (easily a top 10 talent, but likely won't declare), Buddinger (stock has gone up. I've always loved his all around game), and Terrence Williams would be better picks.

Lawson might go ahead of some of those players, but I doubt he'll be an NBA starting caliber player.

Lawson looks like a 5'9, 5'10 not a 6'0, don't you have the same impression?Lawson plays average D, can pass the ball, I think if he developed his shot, he can become a solid NBA player.

Terrence Williams is a promise, he can do everything with quality,I think he will be a mid-late 1st round pick.

5'10.75 without shoes http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-pre-dra ... ft=0&sort= so he's basically 6'. But what he has going for him that other short guards don't is - he's built like a football player. That's a big advantage - when penetrating in traffic and when fighting through picks.

[AgentOvechkin08]

I dont really want monroe. I think he is closer to 6'9, he looks thin to me, doesnt wow you with athleticism, has EXCEPTIONAL passing skills, doesnt have a real threat with his jumper and is a decent rebounder.

If we dont get the number 1 pick i dont look at him as an option. I just can see him translating well to the league. He seems like a guy that can dominate college but wont do so in the league. Just my opinion.

[pancakes3]

Given N1's solid play, team leading +/-, is SG really the position of greatest need on
this team given full health?

From what I've seen, I'd take Curry over any G in the draft right now.

PG: Gil/Critt
SG: DS/N1
SF: Butler/Dmac
PF: AJ/Blatche
C: Haywood/McGee

Yes, i think sg would be the only position where there isn't a starting quality player paired up with a decent backup. pf would be our next weakest position.

As for nick young... some stats to consider:
- has not had a game where he registered more than 5 rebounds this season
- registered 3 or less rebounds in 49/53 games
- has not had a game where he dished out more than 4 assists
- has 3 or less assists in 51/53 games
- recorded 2 or more three-pointers in only 4 games
- went 0'fer in three pointers in 31/53 games
- had 4 or more FTA in only 15/53 games
- had 0 FTA in 21/53 games
- scored 20+ in only 9/53 games
- 7 of those games happened in the last 30 days.

[WizarDynasty]

first, nick is not a starter. secondly, its only his second year and he is playing in a system where the vets run the team, not the coach. Third, a 4th year player named blatche has only got minutes because two vets in front of him are injured. And 4th, he doesn't have a low post option to pass to in order rack up assists. How many times have you seen Butler or Jamison rise in the air and catch alley oops.
There busy shooting contested jumpers. I just want to know what starting playoff will curry be able to defend. curry translates into jamison at the powerforward spot on defense. Hit a few threes..stroke a few open jumpers because powerfowards don't normally play out on the perimeter and go right back on defense and give those points up at an even higher field goal percentage than what you earned them at. Jamison scores at .45 percent field goal percentage and gives his opponents those same points on defense letting his man shoot .60 from teh field. I see the same thing happening with curry at the guard position.

[Ruzious]

Yeah pancakes, what really gets me about Nick - While coming to terms with the fact that the only thing he has a good shot at excelling at is scoring - he still doesn't make many 3's, and he doesn't get to the line as much as good scorers should. I can take him being pretty much 1 dimensional - if he was really good at the 1 dimension. Having said that - I think he will improve significantly, but that +/- stat doesn't tell the truth in his case.