barelyawake wrote:Doc, I see everything you are saying about Curry... on a college level. My problem comes when translating his skillset to the NBA.... especially on anything close to our current make-up (Arenas or no). I fully understand I could be wrong on this one, but I feel Curry up until a point, and then he becomes more JJ Reddick than Bibby, more Dixon than Tony Parker. I have more faith in Rubio's skillset translating to the NBA -- and I don't have the greatest faith in that either. And I have much more faith that Holiday has the potential to contribute on both ends of the floor than Curry. As I said, I get what you are seeing, and fully realize this is one that could go either way. To me, if the pick is Curry (or to be honest any guard in this draft), I'd rather trade the pick (and Etan plus one) for Des Mas, Joe Smith and the Thunder's 2010 unrestricted. Or JO and Toronto's 2010. Or Bosh and Toronto's 2010 (with Caron added). Or about ten other deals. Again, I could be wrong. But, the test will be not if Curry becomes a good player (he will), but if he is able to be a twoway player who is able to start on a championship team -- which to me is 60/40 against because of his frame/step.
(Edit for jinx)... Funny Ruz, we both got that Dixon vibe at the same time. Didn't read your post pre-posting.
Dixon has come up in this thread (re Curry). Ditto JJ Redick. Let me say this about that.
I'll reprise my Redick breakdown: Redick had nothing like the handle and creativity that Stef carries. Redick was a pass-dependent player who was pretty poor on-ball but who could hit an open shot. He played in an offense designed primarily to do just that: get him an open shot. Curls, screens, etc JJ ran all day just to get a touch, he had a quick release and textbook perfect shot that masked his inability to get a shot for himself. He went up quick and let go before the defense got around that last staggered screen. The shot looked the same every time. Nice shooting %, but that's it. All his other stats are a disaster. That plus the short arms, etc suggested he'd struggle.
By contrast Stef Curry hits shots from odd angles while dribbling the ball against double and triple teams and still manages to find the cutter, the open man. To the tune of 7 assists pace adjusted per 40 minutes. Top ten nationwide. On a team with one other double digit scorer.
He's also top 5 in steals per minute, pace adjusted. And, though DX has removed the metric from their database, Stef Curry maintains an excellent ratio of steals + blocks per personal foul.
I get the Juan Dixon comparison. Juan's best NCAA year nearly compares with S'Curry. Shooting %'s, steals, 5 boards per 40padj. Fewer FT's per shot attempt, but equivalent.
Until you factor in that Juan shared a roster with 2 other legit NBA players (and one less legit in Baxter who at least had a cuppacoffee in the league; plus Drew Nicolas who plays well in Euroball). Then recognize that Stef has the #1 nation-wide usage rate, with a minimal dropoff in shooting %'s (balanced out by an uptick in FT attempts per shot).
In other words, if Juan could maintain that 50% fg shooting rate and ~40% 3ball while triple teamed as the focus of the opponent defense, and with no Stevie Blake to stretch defenses, and no Lonny Baxter low-post load and no athletic superfreak CWilcox-- if Juan could still pull that load, I submit he'd probably have panned out to be a slightly better NBA prospect. If Juan could score 30+ points per game in every NCAA tourney game he'd ever played in, on solid %'s, from ridiculously deep range, well that Indiana game for the Win wouldn't have been as boring a snoozefest as it was.
But what puts it in stark contrast is that assist rate.
Now if Stef had Wilcox, Baxter, etc... I'm saying he'd make them all look good. (And the pure fact is if Juan had _any_ PG skills coming out of college, he would have stuck with a team. He can score. He's only just now starting to get it (last year as well). Little too little, maybe too late on the learning curve).
But with Stef you combine the legit scoring (ask defensive nasty team West Virginia who contained him for as long as they could before the late loss) with that high assist rate (better than DJ Augustin, Mario Chalmers , better than Rod Stuckey, Ramon Sessions, Rajon Rondo, Acie Law, Jordan Farmar...) You get a kid whose upside is way better than the respect he garners. Understand, he studied over the summer with Nash & CP3, then suddenly stepped in at point. While _increasing_ his scoring. No adjustment period. Nothing incremental. And his asst/to rate actually improved despite the high usage.
The real question is if and whether he still has room to improve. I submit with actual finishers, and no need to carry the entire team's offensive load --yeah he does. There's next to nobody who manages to contest for the scoring lead nation wide while remaining in the conversation as a shot creator at PG.
Defense? Legit question. No doubt. Yeah I agree he looks skinny. He looks like a hybrid of those two Terrapins Blake and Dixon. Pretty-girly little biscuit-colored kid, wouldn't last a minute during free rec on the Yard. Maybe. I see some Reggie toughness in him. But sure, he looks small. He's listed at 6'3" 185. When wearing an iron diaper and pimp sneakers. Know what though? I haven't seen anyone run over him yet. And he slides over picks and screens, unless they grab him or set an illegal moving pick. And his positional defense is fine. Is he a shutdown defender? No. He will get smeared by some of the bigger, tougher mugs in the league. But so does Tony Parker. So does Steve Nash.
Just saying, even playing for a small school (the biggest placekeeper on my personal doubts. March Madness aside) some of his markers are really insane. Comparing only with guys like Chris Paul and Rod Stuckey. I'm saying, if we could swap out of the high draft to get an instant-fit veteran now, plus have the young Steve Nash on the bench behind Gil. That's not a good thing?