The RealGM Wizards Board Draft Thread 2008/2009

[barelyawake]

What I don't understand is how people can say we don't need a Curry type in the backcourt. Is he a perfect fit? No. I'd love it if he was 6-6 and an athletic freak but he brings so much to the table otherwise. This team is in definite need of a another skilled, shot-making, high IQ presence in the backcourt.

...who can defend. Look, to win a championship, we need at least above average defense in the backcourt. So, say we need a 7 out of 10 between the four guard positions (1 being the worst d and 10 the best). I'll assume that all four players can rotate onto the best offender in the backcourt. So, we currently have Young at 3 (maxing out around 6 IMO -- and that's pushing it given his demonstrated lack of intensity). We have Arenas at a 2 (maxing out at 5 IMO -- and that's pushing it given his previous level of interest in it). And you want to get Curry (who maxes out around a 2 defensively -- and that's pushing it given his frame and step). The math doesn't add up.

Or... We get a vet and wait for when there's a steal in the later picks who is a guard who can play defense (which only happens just about every draft).

This is how it's going to work. We are going to get a SG (somehow) and play them with Crit. The SG will be able to distribute, score and defend. That way we: have scoring off the bench (or better put, the SG will play with the reserves -- think of a three guard rotation with Crit/Young splitting time, and Arenas and the SG getting the bulk of the mins); have two guards off the bench who can distribute; and are MUCH closer to the 7 out of 10 needed to win a championship on the d scale.

Three guards who can defend. If you want to win a championship, and have Arenas on your team, that's the absolute only way to do it. Getting another backcourt player who can't defend is suicide IMO.

[doclinkin]

Who is watching Harden vs. Derozan

I AM

I resist it, but the more I watch Harden the more I like him. Silly efficient, and makes the smart play every damn trip up the floor. The right non-shot, the right pass, etc.

This game he actually made a couple key defensive plays. Got burned on a blow-by but made a perimeter block late, cut off lanes, etc.

That zone is pretty thoroughly designed to protect him though, is what it looks like to me. It rotates to keep him on the weakside at least a few times a game. They force the action towards the opposite baseline. He gets to collapse and cherrypick rebounds off the miss, while the perimeter is defended by someone else. He's playing small forward in that zone, basically. Dunno if that's just to protect him from incidental foul trouble, or if it's something more sinister...

Still, smart player. Very talkative with his teammates in timeouts and during free throws, diagramming with his hands. Interesting to watch the triumph of savvy over pure athl333ticism. (DeRozan's flying tip-in, say). Outcome was never in doubt despite how close the game.

That was a blocking foul though. Hackett was right to be heated, he made a great play, lost on a hometown call.

[Dat2U]

...who can defend. Look, to win a championship, we need at least above average defense in the backcourt. So, say we need a 7 out of 10 between the four guard positions (1 being the worst d and 10 the best). I'll assume that all four players can rotate onto the best offender in the backcourt. So, we currently have Young at 3 (maxing out around 6 IMO -- and that's pushing it given his demonstrated lack of intensity). We have Arenas at a 2 (maxing out at 5 IMO -- and that's pushing it given his previous level of interest in it). And you want to get Curry (who maxes out around a 2 defensively -- and that's pushing it given his frame and step). The math doesn't add up.

Or... We get a vet and wait for when there's a steal in the later picks who is a guard who can play defense (which only happens just about every draft).

This is how it's going to work. We are going to get a SG (somehow) and play them with Crit. The SG will be able to distribute, score and defend. That way we: have scoring off the bench (or better put, the SG will play with the reserves -- think of a three guard rotation with Crit/Young splitting time, and Arenas and the SG getting the bulk of the mins); have two guards off the bench who can distribute; and are MUCH closer to the 7 out of 10 needed to win a championship on the d scale.

Three guards who can defend. If you want to win a championship, and have Arenas on your team, that's the absolute only way to do it. Getting another backcourt player who can't defend is suicide IMO.

I disagree on Gil. I honestly think when healthy he's potentially our best defender. I believe his struggles on that side of the court are more due to the culture instilled by the likes of Eddie Jordan & Antawn Jamison. Defense seemed only to be discussed during training camp. A new coach, a more fundamently sound defensive philosophy, and an acknowledged team leader that isn't a complete sieve on defense will all help greatly.

I also believe Gil's best suited to guard SGs long term based on his length & build. He could potentially save some energy from not having to chase smaller quicker PGs around the court all game long.

Gil was an exceedingly average defender his first two years before falling off completely the last couple of seasons. I think with a defensive minded coach, that's may very well be his worst case scenario in the future.

I believe Jamison's defensive issues at PF are of far greater concern to the overall success of this team's defensive play going forward. That's where the Wizards really need to re-evaluate whether Jamison's offensive advantages and so-called leadership are worth the constant and never ending price we pay on the defensive end of the court.

As for the backcourt players, I'm not willing to lock any of them into the team's long term plans. I wouldn't be making decisions in the draft based on mediocre or marginal (i.e. reserve quality) prospects such as Critt, McGuire & Young. As far as Young is concerned, his b-ball IQ and unwillingness to provide anything but above average shot creation ability (notice I did not say shot-making ability) leaves alot to be desired. He would be nothing more than trade bait to me if was up to me.

Critt has shown flashes as a reserve, most likely a 4th guard on a playoff team and he's got good defensive potential. McGuire's best assets is his defense & his ability to rebound but both Critt & McGuire have major flaws with their inability to make shots. McGuire is a 'Jared Jeffries like' non-threat on offense.

Bottom line with Gil and adding a guy like Curry into the mix, you worry about surrounding those two with the right pieces to the puzzle later.

And honestly I have not been a fan of simply adding a marginal low skilled role player next to Gil. Putting a replacement level player like DeShawn next to Gil is really doing Gil a great disservice and cutting opponents a break by letting them load up on Gil without making them pay for it. I'd prefer adding a dynamic that teams would have trouble matching up with. Sorta like with LH back in his DC days. A guy that could create off the dribble, make shots and set up other guys. Curry could potentially be even better IMO b/c of his cerebral way he plays the game. He'll make the extra pass, he'll find the cutter slashing to the basket, he'll see the big who's worked hard for his post up position in the paint and reward him.

I always thought Gil would work best with another ballhandler. A guy that could take the reins of the offense from time to time and take pressure off of Gil and let him be the scorer he is. To me, adding a guy that demonstrates such a high mental capacity for the game and the willingness and ability to step up during the most clutch situations is something not to simply overlook.

I do believe Blake Griffin is far and away the best talent in the draft. IMO, Greg Monroe is a distant 2nd but I do like his upside. Outside of those two nothing in the high lottery range even remotely excites me. I think Jordan Hill has some potential, but even long term, is he better than anything we already have? How many years would it take for him to even get to Andray Blatche's level? I've been through the reasons why I'm not sold on James Harden. If anyone questions a Curry pick based on defense, you cannot be a fan of drafting Harden b/c he's probably a step slower than Curry and NBA level SGs would have a field day lighting up Harden.

I guess my bottom line is that right now, based on this roster, I'd put emphasis on adding players that demonstrate a high b-ball IQ, a demonstrated skillset relative to their position and a willingness to give effort on the defensive end as opposed to some high flier, a guy with questionable b-ball insticts or a guy who plays a position where we couldn't get a clear upgrade. There's no C in the draft that provides an upgrade over what we have. What would Thabeet do other than clutter up the C position and rot on the bench? There's no PF outside of Blake Griffin & maybe Greg Monroe (I love Monroe's b-ball intelligence as well) that offers a long term advantage as well. You could also say the same for the SF position. Where's the one area that's still a glaring weakness for this team? A guy to put alongside Gil.

[yungal07]

I don't know much about Curry, but from what I've seen so far...I don't like his size, his lack of defensive ability, nor the lack of elevation on his jumpshot. Throw in the whole "tweener" label, and that really turns me off. I'd pass on the kid unless he's available way down in the 1st round. He's JJ Reddick with a little more ball-handling abilties.

[doclinkin]

Same thing (as Dat). I've been looking at guards. Guards who can handle, pass, attack the basket, finish, shoot. Now there are a few big guards I like. But everybody has flaws this year. No big deal, just better not to overpay if you can get the incomplete player at a better value.

The truth is if you look at our PER production by position this year, our backcourt has been giving us basically nothing. Now we can bank on Gil's return at 100%, but there are reasonable caveats.

The truth is he's been gone for almost two years. Hey maybe he returns rested and wiser, a better student of the game, etc. I'd never say 'impossible' to Gil, unless I wanted to challenge him. But there are risks associated with that:

Minor risks:
Timing. Stamina. This is a game of split seconds. The 'zone' occurs when a player ceases thinking and reacts by rote, by reflex, inspiration. I don't know any player who has come back from 2 years out. At all. Much less picked up where they left off. I suspect Gil can regain much of his form, his range and shot if not the blinding first step out the gate. But some part of his game was his reckless aggression in attacking the paint. The free throw totals, fouling out opposing Bigs, attacking the shotblockers. You have to expect he'll return with doubts. And most routine scopes require 2 full years to regain form after return, in reasonable circumstances.

Starker risks:
Increased chance of injury. Lack of timing, forcing the issue, trying to do what you usedtacould, lack of deep interstitial conditioning, etc. Or driving headlong straight at your doubts with something to prove, even if he isn't gunshy. Gaining and losing weight puts strain on the body. Ditto muscle tone. The percentages are higher for compensatory fatigue/strain, if not a full injury cascade. Gil is a remarkable athlete, I'd expect a recovery sooner than later. But I thought he'd be back well before now, and already working on the timing issues.

Just saying, we can bank on him 111 mills worth if we want. But it makes sense to have a back-up plan. If we're looking for perimeter defense: echo Dat, Crtt shows potential, DMac ditto. They need Defensive Bigs behind them, and a well planned scheme. But they have the aptitude.

On the other hand:

We're next to dead last in 3 pt %
Bottom half in raw assists.
Bottom 3 in FT attempts, in a league that rewards the ballhandlers nowadays.

And our only solution to that plan is the 100% return of a guy who's been out for two years.

Seems to me, if we can get a back-up plan, we're only making the smart move. And since it's been a while since we had a top Point, it starves our whole team of quality floor generals and overall IQ. Even from a bench position. Our future right now rests on pass-dependent players. Nick & McGee especially. (Nick because otherwise he dribbles into traffic before he shoots. He needs someone showing him the value of the catch & shoot, off the penetrate and dish). If we do pick up another frontcourt pounder (off the hypothetical trade) that only becomes more true.

----------------------------------------------------------------------
So Attacking guards:
--Harden. Though his value is way inflated right now. So he maybe won't be there if we trade down.
--Evan Turner (though he needs Dr Hoops Hopla to give him confidence in his shot).
--Jeff Teague -- mini gil, though he's a turnover factory.
--Danny Green, though he doesn't attack. He does pass. and Shoot from outside.

more than --Henderson (who doesn't attack).
and more than --Chase, somewhat. Seems slow somehow. I dunno.

or else,
Pick IQ & instinct plus intangibles in:
Stef Curry
Nick Calathes
or even Tiny Ty Lawson. Ferocious competitor. Scores even vs Bigs.

But not Rubio, so much, but only because, really, really: the defense. Unless he'll grow into his body.

Now if I were looking at defense and toughness and smarts and unselfishness, and nevermind the offense. I'd look at --Terrence Williams right now, over Jrue Holliday. But he's the same player as JCritt and DMac, just the mid-grade variety, in the same spectrum. (Critt shades the 1-2; TerWms the 1-3; DMac the 2-4-ish. We'd just need a defensive 3-5, say Andre Kirilenko or whatnot).

Really though IF we wanted an all-defense squad the three things we need most are:

Scheme (coaching, statistics, frontoffice)
Frontcourt weakside beast (rebounding misses, pitbull in the paint when the strongside Big challenges shots or traps the high pick and roll).
On court Smarts/Recognition.

But, paradoxically despite the opponent 3pt barrage, adding another defenser on the perimeter is less of a redlight priority. Those three (above) additions will fix the problem like magic. Scoring the ball is still the hardest thing to do in the NBA. And after a true allstar Big, adding your allstar Point is the toughest position to fill. Might as well risk a later pick on a good gamble.

[lupin]

I almost feel like a heretic for saying this, but just to play devil's advocate...

I'm right there with the 'Haywood is way underrated' club, but he's not the best center in the league. Why couldn't Thabeet be drafted with an eye towards trading Haywood? Thabeet seems to have some size on 'Wood and about 6-8 years in age. I'm not really following the college scouting much, but it just seems like a plausible idea.

[Ruzious]

Seriously though, I think were we disagree the most is on Curry's PG skills. Doc and I believe he has the requiste skills and court vision to be a legit PG on the next level. I hate the Juan Dixon comparison. I think its terribly inaccurate. Dixon was a stone cold scorer in college, but he never was a great shooter. Dixon had no real PG skills coming out of college, never had good court vision and even today he still lacks the mindset of a PG.

What I don't understand is how people can say we don't need a Curry type in the backcourt. Is he a perfect fit? No. I'd love it if he was 6-6 and an athletic freak but he brings so much to the table otherwise.

This team is in definite need of a another skilled, shot-making, high IQ presence in the backcourt. Without Gilbert Arenas our backcourt is an unmitigated disaster. We have no reliable weapon or asset to depend on a nightly basis. Critt has some talent but can't shoot a lick. McGuire is a gamer but can't score either. Nick is about as low IQ as they come and isn't considered starting material b/c he's such a one-trick pony. And nothing needs to be said about DeShawn's shortcomings.

With this current lineup, we need more than just a role playing, do nothing type of fringe NBA player like Stevenson in the backcourt. I think Stephen Curry adds another dimension with his ballhandling, deadeye shooting stroke and all-around court awareness that would greatly complement Gil's skillset as a shooter & slasher. Basically, Gil could be Gil, and not worry about having to be the #1 option & being the main distributor on the floor. Gil might even save enough energy to play some occassional D.

But don't get me wrong, I don't think anyone is saying if we have the #1 pick, we should take Curry over Blake Griffin or anything like that. In fact, I think what's being said in the case that we don't have the top pick, TRADING DOWN for Curry AND another vet along with dumping a contract or two presents the best value for the franchise.

Curry most likely won't go in the lottery - maybe not in the top 20. You might hate it, but the Dixon comparisons are valid. He's got more range than Juan and maybe a tad more PG skills, but physically and mentally - he is Juan Dixon. Actually, Juan jumps better. Juan - every once in a while - could fool you into thinking he could develop game enough to play the point. It's become apparent that that's what Curry did - fool people that he could play the point. He could probably pull it off in longer streaks, but he is shooting guard in the body of a relatively unathletic PG. The last 4 games - 10 assists and 10 turnovers. I was afraid that was going to happen - as his assist/to ratio was gradually fading.

If I was going for an offensive PG, I'd wait till the 2nd round and take Tyrese Rice over Curry - because you can see the difference between a real PG and a 2 guard trying to play the point. I'd just tell Rice - don't shoot jumpers off the dribble - as he's a much better catch and shoot player. Beautiful penetrate and dish or score player - and pure cocky in a good way. And Rice probably isn't even listed on some mocks (I haven't looked). Calathes - I'm guessing he stays another year - so he can boost his draft stock.

[NbdyBeatsTheWiz]

I guess my bottom line is that right now, based on this roster, I'd put emphasis on adding players that demonstrate a high b-ball IQ, a demonstrated skillset relative to their position and a willingness to give effort on the defensive end as opposed to some high flier, a guy with questionable b-ball insticts or a guy who plays a position where we couldn't get a clear upgrade.

. Absolutely.

BUT to add to Lupin's point, Thabeet's 25 point, 20 rebound, 9 block performance this weekend was ridiculous to see. We'd be stockpiling 7 foot centers, but if we get pick #2 and can't trade it, who would you actually draft over this guy??

[pancakes3]

where are you guys getting PER numbers for college players from?

[Rafael122]

Barely made my point for me. I agree with everything Dat said about Curry, but HE CAN'T PLAY DEFENSE. Dat noted most of Curry's positives, and guess what? Most of it is on the offensive side of the ball, which we don't need.

Curry is a lottery pick. I'm pretty sure Charlotte will take him as a PR move, just like they did with Felton and May. But truthfully, he's not a lottery pick. He's too one dimensional, he's rail thin, and he's going to get worked by quicker and more athletic players.

[NbdyBeatsTheWiz]

Well to both agree and disagree with you Ruz, Curry DOES look a lot like a Dixon-type. He's definitely, as you said, a shooting guard in a relatively unathletic PG body. Except he's getting even more hype as an individual star than Dixon did. Seeing as we were gullible enough to draft Dixon 17th overall, I'm sure somebody will bite on Curry at least by then, if not earlier.

[barelyawake]

Sorta like with LH back in his DC days.

Exactly. And Curry ain't Hughes. And we need a better defending, smarter Hughes to boot. Everyone say it with me one time, "We need a foreign player." We need a Ginobili. We needed Marco or Rudy (who have the step; can distribute; can flip pg/sg; and can defend to varying degrees -- especially team d). We need a Rubio, if Rubio's defense would translate to the NBA. We need a guy with Thabo's potential (not sure how he's panned out thus far -- I haven't seen a Bulls game since being back). We need Stephen Jackson. We need Harden, if Harden were a half step faster. We need a glue guy. IMO the closest thing to what we need, in terms of potential, is Holiday -- though I'd rather not spend the pick on him either.

We also need a SF like Prince. Always have. Dom may be him, and I love Dom, but I would rather have an upgrade there too. That's why I think a Tyler Smith or Aminu should be more of a discussion. I love Caron, he's my favorite player, but we need a defensive force out of a SF (someone who can haunt the lane, and cover everyone's flaw on defense -- that IMO is the true role of every SF). Again, Stephen Jackson does that as well.

But, here's what we are actually going to do. We are going to keep this team as is. And since we know that won't work, we have to have future draft picks to save us. Get a vet and a future first. What happened to Anthony Parker that caused him to fall off (was it injury)? Could EG rehab Parker? He's one guy I always wanted here; fits the above (or at least used to); and he's a free agent I believe.

[Ed Wood]

you are not going to find two way players who are above average on both sides of the ball in free agency and teams normally don't trade these guys unless there is really something wrong with them.
The only way you find a two way player with great worth ethic..is in the draft. There is a reason teams traded both jamison and butler. Neither player is an above average two way player. It would be nice to figure out which players in the draft will turn out to be above average two way players. Above average on offense and an above average man to man defender with a great work ethic. These players almost never exist in free agency, and you almost never see a team trade a player like this in his prime.
So you best bet is to get him in the draft. This team needs one at the s/f position let's just hope we get him.

I assume you're speaking in the abstract about our sports fishermen deficit. You almost sound like you have someone in mind when you go over your laundry list of qualities you want. But I'm sure you would have said something about it before now, so there probably wasn't any rhyme to your requirements, they sound like a joke, a dream too... Al Farouq-Aminu, it's a pun sort of. Nevermind.

In response to Doc's request for preliminary list of options at various positions:

Point Guard

Jeff Teague is going to be a pretty good score first point guard. His jump shot works a lot better when he doesn't have to deal with a defender contesting it, but he has touch and in this case he needs it to keep defenders honest rather than as a foundation for his game. He could stand to get his hand on some Tony Parker footage because he relies pretty heavily on drawing fouls when he gets inside. He's a bouncy guy but he's a little too short to just jump over people.

Stephen Curry isn't the shrimp he's sometimes made out to be. OK, he is pretty skinny actually, but he's a decent (not great, but not bad) athlete. Keep in mind it was a big deal when J.J. Redick dunked in-game at Duke, and he just barely could, Steph can get up a little. I don't foresee Nashdom for the kid but I think Mike Bibby's career (perhaps minus the 8+ assist seasons) is possible.

Sometimes it's okay to use a draft pick on a guy who you know is going to be a solid backup, and Darren Collison is one of those guys. Four years in college have allowed him to work out exactly what he can and can't do as a player. I like him a lot more than I do Lawson.

Eric Maynor has completely lost his touch from beyond the arc over the past couple of weeks but he's another guy I trust to be a ten year player in the NBA. He doesn't bring quite as much perimeter shooting to the table but he's bigger and (you can take this as a positive or a negative) hasn't had the help Collison has in college, and has some of Collison's experience playing under a microscope.

Patty Mills is a good player but doesn't make much sense to me as a complement to Gilbert.

Shooting Guard

I'm not quite as in love with James Harden's game as is Doc, but I appreciate his intelligence and his ability to read and adjust correctly. If you hooked up some sort of dream anthropomorphizer to Bob Knight's brain and whispered "shooting guard" in his ear while he slept it would probably spit out somebody kind of like James, maybe with less facial hair.

I do really like Evan Turner as a player for his multidimensional game and his defensive ability. At 6'7" he should be able to defend twos and threes while acting as a secondary ball handler on offense. Get him a reliable three point shot and that sounds like John Salmons, having skipped the terrible Philly portion of his career during which I assume he got himself mixed up with Willie Green.

Watching Chase Buddinger I always come away impressed with his overall skill level and I'm sure he'll be a valuable offensive role player at the next level. On the other hand I very rarely come away impressed by his athletic ability, which I'm assured is still all there and I'm not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing that he doesn't seem to use it.

The opposite is true when I watch Danny Green. I had always assumed he was a big time athlete until I started hearing talk about how good he looked for someone who didn't have much athletic ability. He's a good shooter in any event and I was very confused by Bill Raftery's lament over the loss of "Carolina's only good perimeter defender in Marcus Ginyard" until I remembered Bill Raftery.

I do not enjoy watching Tyreke Evans play but I do not deny that his game will readily translate into NBA effectiveness.

I'd argue that being part of so many five guard lineups this year has actually helped James Anderson by forcing him to use his size and athletic ability as rebounder and defender (well as a rebounder anyway). He's still a very solid shooter. I like Ellington about as much, both I tend to think will be serviceable but not exceptional NBA players.

Between my natural aversion to Duke prospects and his total lack of guard skills prior to this year I don't think I should be evaluating Gerald Henderson.

Small Forward

Al-Farouq Aminu certainly has all the talent in the world, but I don't know yet where that talent is ultimately going to leave him. I think he's already in a bit of a positional gray area, though he has the quickness to prevent him from becoming a defensive negative as a small forward. I'm not sure he isn't still growing anyway, and might end being more effective at power forward (think Andrei Kirilenko) anyway, this isn't necessarily a bad thing.

DaJuan Summers is clearly talented and has the physical ability to take advantage of it but I never get the same read on the kid twice. I can't foresee a situation where we're in a position to draft him anyway, but I'll root for him.

Earl Clark is way too good to be as bad as he is. At this point he might be better off sticking to power forward, or locking himself in a gym with a shooting coach for a year.

I'd still take a late first/second round look at Austin Daye without any hesitation at all. He's way way way too talented to be around that late and the fact that I'm even able to entertain hopes that he'll drop is evidence that he should stick around for another year in college.

If we're looking for a stashable European in the second round Omri Casspi would be a very good choice. He's a bit like Andres Nocioni, he has good size for a small forward and he's a nice athlete. While he's not quite as hefty as Noc both guys give a lot of effort fueled by pure hatred. A member of the jackass crazy foreigner club (Noc, Ginobili, Andres Biedrins, Sasha Vujacic), not the softee jump shooter association.

Power Forward

We don't really need another take on Blake Griffin, he's number one on my board as well.

I'm keeping Greg Monroe and Jordan Hill pretty even right now and if it comes down to a choice between the two on draft night I think I'd be satisfied whichever way we went. Actually I wouldn't be surprised if both of these guys are a little better than they appear. Hill seems to have some skills that aren't really used in Arizona (a mid-range jumper) and Greg needs to realize that court balance is a virtue because it creates high percentage shots, and when you're eight of nine it's okay if Jessie Sapp has to wait a game to get his looks. I do, however, look forward to moans of "oh no not another soft big man" if we draft Monroe (his on-ball defense is pretty good).

Blair is another guy I have to excuse myself on, even if I watch him while repeating "Paul Millsap" over and over I have trouble. Wonderful rebounder. I actually have less trouble with Patrick Patterson, but I think I tend to assume Millsap is a better athlete than he actually is.

Donatas Montiejunas would be another nice guy to stash if we want a second rounder who we don't have to pay right away. He's not likely to make it beyond the tail end of the first round, though I guess there's always a chance that the lack of restriction on second round contracts will appeal to a guy like that and he'll maneuver his way out of the first. I wouldn't blame you if you're a little leery of European big men at this point.

Centers

I wonder if guys as tall as Hasheem Thabeet just can't consistently run with an uptempo offense because he is SLOW up and down the floor but you'll see him hedge and get back defending a pick and roll and it just boggles the mind how quickly he can cover ground. I like his mid-range jumper (he'll easily be the tallest guy in the league who actually jumps when he shoots) and being so big might almost help him defensively in a sense because he doesn't have to do all of the jumping and running out of position to provide help defense. Having to move around and stay with his man outside of the paint will be an adjustment. I'm a little tempted to say he'd be worth working out a way to keep if we aren't looking at Griffin but somebody else is going to be knocking down our door to trade up for him at this rate, and that's probably the smarter choice.

I see a lot of the potential in BJ Mullens but I'm not heartbroken that we're not going to be the team to see if he manages to fulfill it. Cole Aldrich is a much safer bet and could be a very solid defensive center on a good team, but again, center isn't where we're looking to improve.
-Ed

[barelyawake]

I see a lot of the potential in BJ Mullens.

BJ Mullens has perhaps the highest ceiling of all the draft picks IMO. I'm glad you said something first, because I've been dying to. Have you seen the man dunk? I mean the between the legs while in mid air dunk -- as a seven footer. Problem is mental. Some frame issues and lack of muscle, but with his athletic ability, he could overcome a lot of that. He may never reach anywhere close to potential (most likely won't), but he's got loads of it.

[pancakes3]

BJ is an riddle wrapped in a mystery stuffed into an enigma. what is UP with him?

[doclinkin]

where are you guys getting PER numbers for college players from?

I love me some Draft Express database...

[Ruzious]

Earl Clark is way too good to be as bad as he is. At this point he might be better off sticking to power forward, or locking himself in a gym with a shooting coach for a year.

Earl's problem at Lewuhvull is he's not a power player. You can see him cringe whenever he's got the ball inside - ala Jared Jeffries. I saw the Kentucky/Lville game where Patrick (underrated) Patterson pancaked him at both ends, so to speak. But, his skills and abilities fit really well at the 3 - where his negatives become positives - just like his uberathletic teammate - Terrence Williams - should be at the 2. Lock them both in the gym shooting 3's and you have 2 close to All-star caliber players.

Mullens - I'm not as high as others are (so to speak II) on him. The scouting reports say - tremendous explosion. I don't see it. I see a surprisingly skilled offensive player who takes too long to get off the floor - and because of that - I don't see him ever being a good rebounder or shot-blocker. Actually, our McGee has that same problem, but I think he's about 3 inches longer - so it's not as damaging.

[doclinkin]

Curry is a lottery pick. I'm pretty sure Charlotte will take him as a PR move, just like they did with Felton and May.

Actually I doubt it. Larry Brown loves his DJ Augustin, and mostly hates rookies. I'd bet Larry will whine until he can parlay a pick or a surplus SF into a veteran 2-guard. Don't underestimate the erosive power of Larry Brown whining, he can make hisself a throbbing canker if he doesn't get what he wants.

But the larger point is sorta true. In a year thin on talent, and following the usual good tournament run, Curry will probably go higher in the draft than at the spot where we'd get best value.

I'm looking at trade partners, and don't see many great drop-down options.

I want Bosh, but with Matrix there now, no way they drop him if they think they can keep him. And they're thick in finesse bigs so not the best partner. Tawn (or Caron) are no real upgrade from Marion.

T'wolves need a Point and a Center. But too much to think they'd trade Al Jeff (or Love) for the option of Ricky or Thabeet-- and who would they want off our roster anyway? No surplus PF. Maybe Nick Young. I'd bet they'd stick with the draft pick.

The Nets Vince deal that I'm leery of. That's closer to workable, except who do they need with the high draft pick? They'd want NIck Young prob'ly, Jamison would interfere with their LeBron Plan. But Etan and Mike James expire at the right time to aid their cap situation. Eh. Dunno. There are a few options here. Then we could swap Jamison for Brand. And Hope the Gawds of Health smile on the Wizards like they always do...

[Tiago]

If we're looking for a stashable European in the second round Omri Casspi would be a very good choice. He's a bit like Andres Nocioni, he has good size for a small forward and he's a nice athlete. While he's not quite as hefty as Noc both guys give a lot of effort fueled by pure hatred. A member of the jackass crazy foreigner club (Noc, Ginobili, Andres Biedrins, Sasha Vujacic), not the softee jump shooter association.

I can tell you easily that Omri is a much better athlete than Nocioni, his moves reminds me a little bit of Kevin Durant, but not so good shooter, anyway, Omri's not ready for NBA, needs to gain maturity, he has flashes of a very good player, but that's only flashes, at this moment .

[doclinkin]

I almost feel like a heretic for saying this, but just to play devil's advocate...

I'm right there with the 'Haywood is way underrated' club, but he's not the best center in the league. Why couldn't Thabeet be drafted with an eye towards trading Haywood? Thabeet seems to have some size on 'Wood and about 6-8 years in age. I'm not really following the college scouting much, but it just seems like a plausible idea.

Because as big as he is, Thabeet is sometimes a bit of a defensive moron. He's got butterfly nets for hands and will catch anything that passes near him, either blocking shots or rebounding, but he is never 100% sure where he's supposed to be. Brendan by contrast knows where his assignment is and where your assignment is; watches film to better bother the opposing match-up; vocal leader on D, calls out the switch and help instructions. Brendan will be better for the defensive development of JaVale, or Blatche. Thabeet would just get in their way.