Long Term Plan? (merged threads)

[nate33]

At the start of the season, once we heard Haywood was out for the season and Arenas was out until January, many of us were despondent. The team was trapped in purgatory. The team wasn't bad enough to get a high lotto pick, and there wasn't much reason for optimism in coming years. None of our youngsters really had star potential except perhaps Blatche. We all thought Young was a one-dimensional gunner who might have a role, but he wasn't a star. Nobody thought McGee would have an impact this year. Dixon was a crappy signing. McGuire and Pecherov were end of the bench scrubs.

Meanwhile, EG had tied up the salary situation for the foreseeable future with the Arenas and Jamison signings. We couldn't even do the Big Trade in 2009 Plan unless we first dump Songaila. Basically, the season was a complete wash out. There really wasn't a point to even playing the games. There was no reason for hope. We were all thinking we should just hibernate for a year and come back next year and see what we can do with a healthy Arenas and Haywood.

What a difference 6 games make!

Suddenly, there is light at the end of the tunnel. McGee is a revelation! He looks like a better version of Tyson Chandler only 6 games into his rookie season. Nick Young is leading the team in PER and has learned to function within the offense. At the same time, the team is losing every night so there's a possibility of a high lotto pick.

So now, the question is, how should EG adjust to these circumstances? The old plan of "continuity" no longer seems to make much sense. Despite this newfound young talent, we have seen a decline in veterans AD, Stevenson, Etan and Jamison. We're still in "no-man's land" with veterans that aren't good enough to win a title and youngsters who aren't experienced enough to know how to win on a consistent basis. And our cap situation remains tight.

It seems to me, we have three choices:
1. Trade youth and picks for better "win-now" vets and go for a title next season.
2. Trade vets for cap space and youth, build towards the future
3. Stand pat and hope that the youngsters continue to improve before the vets decline too much.

If there was KG-caliber talent available, we might be in position to trade McGee and filler for such a player. But I don't see anybody available that's a sure-fire ticket to Championship contention. So I don't think Option 1 is a good one.

I think we ought to explore Option 2. I think it's time to seriously consider trading Jamison. I like Jamison and I think he is better than many on this board credit him, but the fact remains he's a 32-year-old on a team full of 22-28 year olds. Furthermore, if we trade Jamison, while retaining a bunch of long, athletic and relatively unskilled 7-footers, then perhaps the Princeton Offense should be scrapped and we need to go with a more defensive philosophy (including a new coach).

On the other hand, we have to pay attention to the long-term salary situation. McGee and Young are going to demand substantial salaries when their rookie deals expire. Jamison's contract expires when McGee's rookie contract expires, so things could work out fairly well salarywise if we stand pat.

What do you guys think? Do we aim for a window 3-5 years in the future? Or do we gear up for a championship run in the next 2 years? Or do we do neither and try to be a competitive but not dominating team for the next 5 years and just hope for a break?

[Benjammin]

As far as choice 1, I don't think we can go in that direction unless and until Gil comes back and shows he is the old Gil and can stay healthy. I don't particularly care for option 3 because I don't know that this combination of players really mesh that well together. Jamison and Butler as starting forwards is a weak defensive combination, there is no way around that.

I would go for option 3, but call it rebuilding on the fly. Jamison would be the number one asset, using him to get rid of liabilities (capwise at least) Songaila, and/or (Etan, AD, Stevenson) for younger players with potential as well as cap space. Whatever option is selected, Eddie Jordan would not be my coach.

[mhd]

Of all of our vet role players, Stevenson would be fine as a defensive plugger and pest. Put GA next to him and he'll be back to hitting open three's. He's the least worrisome and most moveable piece we have. I'd keep DS.

Etan and AD expire after this year. I believe we'll see a draft day trade of those two.

Jamison is the key. I'd still look to trade him for a banger. Haslem would be a perfect fit as a rugged rebounder.

[Ruzious]

1 and 3 are flat out not going to work. Remember the old Bullets used to put on a show of doing 1 and failing miserably at it - guaranteeing mediocrity year after year - Moses Malone, Dan Roundfield, Rickey Sobers, Gus Williams, Ike "Wilbon Special" Austin?

The continuity idea was nice, but injuries doomed it. And now it's time for a new plan. Trade for quality youth, and if some of the current youth doesn't fit into the championship plan - include them in the bait. Jamison should be traded before he's untradable, and I'd even look to trade Arenas - which will only be possible if he shows he can still play. Even Butler shouldn't be untouchable if they get a phenominal offer.

[Shanghai Kid]

I wouldn't see the logic in trading a healthy Arenas or Butler. They're both what I call young veterans, and we don't have any great young players sitting behind them at their posistions. Arenas in fact is only 26, a young franchise player who can close out games when healthy.

I would try to build towards a team that featured Arenas/Young/Butler/Mcgee as the corner pieces.

[nate33]

Jamison is definitely movable. If we wanted to, I bet we could package Jamison plus Songaila for expiring contracts, maybe even unload AD or Etan in the process. What concerns me is, what does that really get us? Let's say we can unload Jamison, Songaila and AD, but we're still stuck with Etan until 2010. In that scenario, we still wouldn't be substantially under the cap next summer. And even in 2010, we'd only be about $7-8M under the cap, assuming we resigned Haywood. And in 2011, Young would need to be resigned, and 2012, Blatche and McGee would need to be resigned.

The bottom line is that as long as Arenas and Butler are on the roster, it's pretty hard to get far enough under the cap to sign an elite free agent like Lebron, Bosh or Stoudemire. I just don't think free agency is a viable option.

That leaves a Jamison trade where we get back a younger player. Dumping one of Songaila/AD/Etan would be nice so avoid the 2009 luxtax, but it's not necessary as a strategy for acquiring long-term talent.

Among younger players available, the names we've heard so far are Kirilenko and Gerald Wallace. I'd definitely trade Jamison for either of those guys. I particularly like Kirilenko because he can play some PF. Who else might be available for a modest price?

[Ruzious]

[b]I wouldn't see the logic in trading a healthy Arenas [b]or Butler. They're both what I call young veterans, and we don't have any great young players sitting behind them at their posistions. Arenas in fact is only 26, a young franchise player who can close out games when healthy.

I would try to build towards a team that featured Arenas/Young/Butler/Mcgee as the corner pieces.

Because he's got a ridiculous contract, and because they might be able to get value for him, and because they've had disappointing results with him. Even if it looks like he regains his explosiveness, are you willing to gamble that contract that he's going to keep it and stay healthy? Like I said, I wouldn't look to trade Butler, but he's not untouchable, and he's not a kid.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Among younger players available, the names we've heard so far are Kirilenko and Gerald Wallace. I'd definitely trade Jamison for either of those guys. I particularly like Kirilenko because he can play some PF. Who else might be available for a modest price?

I think Kirilenko is done, Wallace is more interesting...

It's kind of a shame... I think the Wiz might have been able to get Shawn Marion or Danny Granger a year or so ago. Granger at this point has blown up, so he is untouchable... Marion is, obviously, no longer with Phx, so that is off the table.

IMO, to see significant long-term improvement, we'd need to make a pretty risky trade... sending Jamison for a youngster who hasn't yet (and thus may never) live up to his potential, but who might also blow up. Who comes to mind here? Maybe Jeff Green.

[GilArenas88]

I say we stockpile youth to a degree. But their are some core players I'd like to hold on to and thats Arenas, Butler, and Haywood. Why Arenas? First because what he's only going to be 27 this January, I still think we can see the old Gilbert, and if he comes back healthy and good he still hasn't even hit his prime. Second if he's not the old Gilbert we wouldn't be able to trade him anyways. Why Butler? Because he's still relatively young, and he IMO still has another 5-6 solid seasons left. He does a little of everything, and is the enforcer and heart of the team. Why Haywood? Our best defender, defends man-to-man very good and good help defender, solid rebounder, decent offensive game, like Butler probably has another 5-6 of good play left in him. Plus he can be a solid big off the bench once McGee develops enough.

Keep:
Arenas
Young
Blatche
Butler
McGee
Haywood
Dixon
Pecherov
McGuire

Move:
Thomas
Songalia
Daniels
Brown

On the fence with:
Jamison-If he will agree to come off the bench, I'd say lets hold onto him
Stevenson- Like Jamison will need to come off bench.

We need to draft another sf and a pg in nexts year draft, if were bad enough and were in the lotto then possibly another pf.

[AgentOvechkin08]

Jamison is not being traded anytime soon, not with Abe here and trading him would probably not go well with Arenas, who said if Jamison does not sign, he will not sign. But who knows what really would have happened if Jamison didnt sign...

Anyway, I think McGee and Young are definitely future starter for us for years to come. Young, while i was really concerned watching him in Summer league, saying he seemed to not improve, has proved me wrong. Butler is still relatively young and in his prime, and Arenas is only 26, even though it seems he has been in the league forever. To be honest when Haywood is back healthy next year, I would not be surprised if he was being shopped, because what he proved when he is healthy.

I hope we make a deal though this year, to somehow some way dump songaila and thomas or daniels

Stevenson showed me that he still has an ability to shutdown players, holding williams down and not letting him do anything big against us.

I think Blatche should be shopped right now, he can not get how good he can be. Every year, at the beginning in the season we say "Is this his break out year?" well I say we shop him with one of the vets I mentioned I want to dump, and see what you can get. Always remember the Lakers gave us CARON BUTLER FOR KWAME BROWN. Some team probably will be willing to take a gamble on his talent. Maybe he works out well somewhere else.

The position I see for the future that needs to be looked into is PF or the 4 position if you prefer that. Blatche doesnt seem to be working and I said even before the season I would like to trade him, and after his start and seeming no improvement, he proved me right and gave me more reason.
Maybe look to draft one this year or trade blatche and vet for another young PF...

Those are my thoughts

[Dat2U]

Option 2 is my choice: Build around this core...

PG Gilbert Arenas...while he's had injury troubles the one thing I take solace in is that none of his injuries have been a career changing injury. A torn meniscus is frankly ranks pretty low on the knee injury scale. The problem has been the rehab process afterwards. The mirco-fracture surgery was on a non-weight bearing bone which significantly reduces the risk with that surgery. So there is hope that he can eventually return to the old Agent Zero. It may just not happen right away.

SG Nick Young...I'm still not crazy about his shot selection but he's playing well and scoring efficiently. He's also not stagnating the offense as much as he used to and is a competent defender.

SF Caron Butler...A solid all-star level player. I still don't think he's much of a defender but he does bring a ton of intangibles into the mix. I think the injury thing needs to be watched closely though. I'd love it if his minutes could be limited to 32-34 minutes a night but right now it can't based on the personnel behind him.

C Javale McGee...based on the early returns, he should be untouchable. I'm so thrilled I was wrong about him, he's so far the steal of the draft. I'll give credit to Ernie on this pick.

C Brendan Haywood...without Wood's injury, Javale may have never gotten the chance to prove himself. Still the Wizards sorely miss Wood's leadership on the defensive end as his ability to cover up for other players and guard elite low-post players. I see no reason to trade Wood. Him & Javale could form a formidable duo that can potentially battle the best the league has to offer. We'll need Javale & Wood against the likes of D.Howard & Yao. The Wiz may be set a C for years to come. How many other teams can say that?

Where does that leave us?

Jamison's time in DC I think has run his course. EG was right to re-sign him after he was wrong not to trade him at the deadline last year. At least get something for Jamison instead of nothing.

Andray Blatche is the next Tim Thomas. Tease and tantalize with little results. I've seen enough of Blatche up close to learn he doesn't love the game. He just loves what comes after the game. Afterparties, hoochies and money to pay to play with those hoochies. Trade him while other GMs are still enamored with him.

Keep AD & Etan...only to let their contracts expire in the 2010 offseason, or trade them for similar expiring contracts. These guys are dead weight, unless a useful veteran can be had with a similar contract, just take solace in the fact that both of these guys will be gone soon enough.

Trade DeShawn & D-Song aka DeSh*t & DeSuck at almost any cost. Ideally for contracts that expire a year earlier, so it conspires at the same time AD & Etan's contract expires. This is where an asset like Blatche's inexpensive contract may be a helpful tool in making this happen.

Pecherov is a bust and only has value as contract filler. Time is running out on McGuire, either so something before the end of the year or that's it. Dixon may prove his worth as an inexpensive backup but nothing more. Do not re-sign him to a multi-year deal. Dee Brown is simply just Dee Brown. Wave bye to him this coming summer if not sooner.

THE THREE BIGGEST KEYS NEXT OFFSEASON

1. Draft well. We may very well have a high lottery pick. PF, SF or reserve guard are the places I'd look to fill.

2. Do not. I repeat do not add ANY salary this coming offseason. Please no MLE free agents. No multi-year deals.

3. Negotiate an extention with Haywood. Coming off most likely a season entirely missed by injury, show good faith and extend a cap friendly deal to him, ensuring that our C position will be set for years to come.

Oh, if I forgot to mention one thing...We NEED a NEW COACHING STAFF. It's time to transition to a coaching staff that will take us to the next level. The biggest factor in my mind is that the emphasis must be on defense!!!!!!

[Dat2U]

Jamison is definitely movable. If we wanted to, I bet we could package Jamison plus Songaila for expiring contracts, maybe even unload AD or Etan in the process. What concerns me is, what does that really get us? Let's say we can unload Jamison, Songaila and AD, but we're still stuck with Etan until 2010. In that scenario, we still wouldn't be substantially under the cap next summer. And even in 2010, we'd only be about $7-8M under the cap, assuming we resigned Haywood. And in 2011, Young would need to be resigned, and 2012, Blatche and McGee would need to be resigned.

The bottom line is that as long as Arenas and Butler are on the roster, it's pretty hard to get far enough under the cap to sign an elite free agent like Lebron, Bosh or Stoudemire. I just don't think free agency is a viable option.

That leaves a Jamison trade where we get back a younger player. Dumping one of Songaila/AD/Etan would be nice so avoid the 2009 luxtax, but it's not necessary as a strategy for acquiring long-term talent.

Among younger players available, the names we've heard so far are Kirilenko and Gerald Wallace. I'd definitely trade Jamison for either of those guys. I particularly like Kirilenko because he can play some PF. Who else might be available for a modest price?

So Nate, lets say Etan & AD expire in 2010. We also find a way to move Jamison, Songalia & Stevenson off the cap too by then. It would also probably cost us Blatche as well in a cap clearing move. Where would that put us? Could we make a run for a major FA at that point? I'm thinking the core would look like this going into the 2010 offseason:

PG Arenas
SG NYoung
SF CButler
C McGee
C Haywood
'09 1st rounder - mid/high lottery
'09 2nd rounder
'10 1st rounder - low lottery/mid-first
'10 2nd rounder

[go'stags]

I agree with Dat on just about everything, with one exception.

I know this wont be popular, and I love everything about Caron, but I think maybe eventually we might need to move him for a different fit at SF. Not neccesarily, but a better fit.

One thing all good teams need is a shutdown perimieter defender. With Young forcing his way into the starting lineup, and McGee showing signs of being a 25 ppg scorer eventually, along with Arenas, we have plenty of one on one scoring. But we dont have anybody who can shut down or at least cause problems for opposing SF's defensivley.

This is why I eventually would like to see a Caron for Tayshaun Prince trade. Prince is a better defender, spot up shooter, and can score too. He doesnt bring the overall game that Caron does, but defensivley he is a premier player. And the length in our frontline with Prince, McGee and whomever we play at PF would be sick.

I would not trade Caron for him straight up, byt maybe a Caron+Songalia for Prince+Maxiell. Maybe we get a pick, but something along those lines.

[spaceman_E]

As far as choice 1, I don't think we can go in that direction unless and until Gil comes back and shows he is the old Gil and can stay healthy.

I think this is the key point. We really can't have a clear path until we know what we have left in Gil. If he is back to his old ways, I think the goal should be to go for it all now. What we need to watch out for though is trading all our youth for vets in their 30's, what we should look for is, what someone just deemed "young vets". Basically, a guy in his mid 20s that is about to come into a big contract and some cheap team dumps him off to us for youth and flexibility. But I guess that's the trick since this is probably the hardest player to find.

The trouble with going young is that none of our vets are tradeable until the offseason at the earliest. I agree with Nate that Jamison is the guy we should look to deal so we can package a contract with him for youth, but I also agree with others that Abe is going to be very reluctant to ok the deal. Same with Ernie firing Eddie unless we have a terrible record by the end of the year.

If we do choose to go young, I think the right think to do is hire a new coach as well. Not because of poor results from Eddie, the man has done well with what was available and grown as a coach here, but also had very bad luck with injuries during what should have been our best years. The reason is because we need a different system with these players going forward. A traditional PF, more focus on defense. We should always be fine on O with Gil, Young, and Caron at the 1-3. Those 3, along with a solid, well built PF, and a Wood/Mcgee combo at C should be pretty darn good and plenty to build around.

[fugop]

Can someone make a solid case for why McGee can't play PF? He's certainly athletic/quick enough. Is it just that he's not skilled enough to play in EJ's offense?

The thought of an offense led by Arenas, Young and Butler and a defense anchored by a McGee/Haywood frontcourt makes me salivate.

[spaceman_E]

One thing all good teams need is a shutdown perimieter defender. With Young forcing his way into the starting lineup, and McGee showing signs of being a 25 ppg scorer eventually, along with Arenas, we have plenty of one on one scoring. But we dont have anybody who can shut down or at least cause problems for opposing SF's defensivley.
.

First off, what has shown you Mcgee can even score 20 a night consistently? He gets all of his points on dunks, put backs, and the fast break. His potential I think is much more as a dominating offensive rebounder and shot blocker with 15-20 PPG. Something like 18 12 3 is how I see him. IF he works on the jumper and develops a couple moves on the block, then maybe he could up his scoring, but that is no sure thing.

Second, while I agree it would be nice to have a premier wing stopper at SF, this would make it so we would need our PF to score more to make up for the loss of scoring at the 3. I would much rather have a defensive, rebounding, solid body 4 who doesn't need to concentrate on the offensive side. I think the defense would be fine if we had 2 defenders at the 4 and 5. Along with better coaching, our 1-3 wouldn't need to sag into the lane for double teams, instead concentrating on stopping penetration and when someone did get into the lane we would have to big boys to swat the shot away. Much different than now when our small guys know they have to help down low because Jamison and Song are protecting the rim.

[go'stags]

Well I have seen some post moves from Mcgee, namely a turnaround jumper from around the low block to the baseline. Its unblockable and he has such a soft touch. He has also shwon the ability to put the ball on the floor and blow by people.

And Tayshaun is not a bad scorer, hes good for a consistent 15-20 a game. He is not a go to scorer, but we would have Arenas and Young for that.

No matter what were going to need a good defender at the 4, as every team that truly has a shot to win a championship has good defense from both their big men. If he could just hit a jumper consistently while playing good defense and rebounding, it would be fine. We could add more scoring from the bench at the backup wing spot, or from a combo guard.

We also wouldnt need as much offense with our improved defense.

I certainly wouldnt cry if we dont make this trade, as I love Caron, but I think it wold be smart. But in EG I trust.

[hands11]

Of all of our vet role players, Stevenson would be fine as a defensive plugger and pest. Put GA next to him and he'll be back to hitting open three's. He's the least worrisome and most moveable piece we have. I'd keep DS.

Etan and AD expire after this year. I believe we'll see a draft day trade of those two.

Jamison is the key. I'd still look to trade him for a banger. Haslem would be a perfect fit as a rugged rebounder.

Still a little to early to say for sure. We have time before the trade dead line. To much can happen between now and then but I like our options.

Anything more the saying AD and ET is to speculative. There are tons of maybe we can move players.

As for AJ. Sure that makes sense. So does keeping him. The tie breaker to the conversation about moving him is simply.... Abe is the owner. AJ isn't going anywhere while he still owns the team. Not unless AJ begs to leave.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Can someone make a solid case for why McGee can't play PF? He's certainly athletic/quick enough. Is it just that he's not skilled enough to play in EJ's offense?

The thought of an offense led by Arenas, Young and Butler and a defense anchored by a McGee/Haywood frontcourt makes me salivate.

Me, too, fugop.

nate and Lyrical and others think it might confuse McGee to try and be anything but a C. I trust their wisdom. I say just put him out there and just play random ball offensively. Work out defensive rotations to where McGee protects the basket and Brendan roves like he always does.

I think not running any plays for McGee he still gets his. Haywood's improved free throw shooting and face up game make me think Javale will play off of his missed shots just fine.

IMO that's a championship-caliber roster right there.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I think the long-term deal should be to essentially stand pat unless the Wiz get better veterans or expiring deals for Daniels, Thomas, and Songaila. Wait for about the 20-25 game mark before doing anything risky.

I do NOT like the idea of stockpiling more young players because the Wizards already have them, (except at PG and perhaps SF). EJ is not the right coach to have a bunch of young players. And, too many young players will just battle each other for minutes and lose a bunch of games. The team needs a balance of veterans and youth. It has that.

I just wish there were a way to upgrade to veterans who have won more and who play sound, fundamental defense. Rasheeds a FA. He's the kind of veteran that can perhaos give something back to younger bigs. Joe Smith is a decent PF. Those guys in place of Etan and Darius makes a lot of sense to me. Defensive upgrades at PF who are better than the vets we have.

At PG, I'm afraid AD cannot defend. I think Earl Watson's quicker and better defensively and with the deep ball.

I don't see any of those type vets traded to D.C.

IF the Wizards were to acquire young players, I think they'd need to send out some young players in return.

Jeff Green's name was mentioned earlier. Can't imagine OKC trading him, but he's the kind of player that would make a huge impact for the Wizards. Blatche to get him, I'd deal in a heartbeat. I also like Collison from the Thunder. If the Wizards could send them Etan and Darius, it might be worth adding a better player just to get Cook/Collison in return.

Pecherov for Crittendon still makes sense to me, but I'd want a pick to be included at this time. Juan has been solid, so it's not as urgent to get a backup PG. However, from a talent standpoint you have to give guys like Lowry and Conley real consideration in trade talks. They could be real good in Washington.

That all said, I just want the young guys to play solid minutes and for the Wizards to wait about 20-25 games before they do anything besides an obvious steal of a trade.