Long Term Plan? (merged threads)

[yungal07]

DMac scoring 15 points a game? Highly, highly unlikely. The guy can barely make a jumpshot....he might top out at 10 points a game, but right now his offensive game is on par with Ben Wallace.

[doclinkin]

I would say that 15 & 8 would be very special. 12 & 7 with his defense would be outstanding. 10 & 6 would still be pretty good, especially given his draft position & salary.

Dom is one three point jumper away from averaging 10 and 8 per 36 minutes. Plus three dimes, a steal, one and a half blocks.

Right now he's closer to averaging 6 pts and 10 boards than the other way around. (He's at 7 and 9 per 40 right now).

I suspect at his peak, with a bit more time in the weight room and in the right system, he could average a steady near double-double, say 9 and 9, with 4-and-a-half dimes, a steal, and a block or two, and quality defense. But it seems to me any coach in the Association would battle to get a player like that.

But think about it like this, when Big McGee is good enough to claim long minutes at either 4 or 5, imagine how many dimes a competent passer could rack up just lobbing it to Big Boy when he's in position. Especially if, like Dom, they're 6'8" and can pass above the head of most of the guys who guard them. And once Lemonhead knows what he's doing on defense, if he's out challenging a shot with his arms overhead --even from a standstill-- how many loose balls will clang off the rim for McGuire to collect.

Dom needs a bit of strength for finishing and putbacks and claiming his ground in the post as needed. But that's a likelihood as he puts on adult weight. The rest is just minutes: he's versatile and energetic and defensively competent enough that a decent coach will find minutes for him, even if he doesn't develop a silky-smooth jumper. And with Gilbert out there, he'll tend to get more open looks, and with the uptempo pace: more rebound chances, more putbacks.

Fact is, given our current flaws, in the long term he's a good fit. But he's got the skillset and attitude to find a role on any team. The only thing he needs, like any young player, is consistency. You figure out that with experience and consistent effort.

[Ruzious]

One more thing to address in the long-term plan - fixing the shooting problem. The Wiz are 2nd to last in the entire NBA in 3 point shooting percentage and 3rd to last in FG percentage. We are the worst shooting team in the entire NBA.

[nate33]

One more thing to address in the long-term plan - fixing the shooting problem. The Wiz are 2nd to last in the entire NBA in 3 point shooting percentage and 3rd to last in FG percentage. We are the worst shooting team in the entire NBA.

Gilbert Arenas will go a long way toward changing that. Arenas is a great 3-point shooter, and his presence will create more open looks for Butler and Jamison who are both pretty good 3-point shooters when given time to set. It would also help if Stevenson can shoot 40% like he did in 06/07 rather than the 27% he shot this season.

That said, I sure would like to see a coaching strategy geared toward generating more 3-point shots from the corner. The corner 3 is the highest percentage shot in the league. Unfortunately, we take very few of them and we give up a ton on D. I'd like to see Hoopla working with DMac, Young, Butler and Blatche on that corner 3. And I'd like to see our offense tweaked so that there's always a kick-out option to the corner.

[pancakes3]

Jamison takes a ton of corner shots, just not all of them from 3 range. Songaila also bolts to the corner on pick and pops. Gil goes to Jamison on the corner all the time if he felt like he couldn't draw a foul or get the bucket. I'm more worried about who's going to be shooting the open three from the top of they key, where conventional wisdom argues is the most efficient spot to make a 3. DS filled that role (minimally) in '06-'07. Mason excelled in that role last season. Who's going to be that guy to receive the swing pass from Jamison and drill it? The right player paired up with arenas and jamison could make a killing standing out there. Rasul Butler's doing it with Paul and West. Courtney Lee is making a living doing the same.

[hands11]

i'm going to go ahead and prick a pin in that thought bubble. there is a ceiling on dmac. i'll be generous and put the cap at 18/10. He can work as hard as possible for the rest of his career and he'll probably top out as a 15/8 guy. He's just not that special.

Great guess. So what. Who is going to came back and say you were wrong a year or two from now.

Anyone can throw some numbers out there. That was't the debate going on so you hardly pricked any though bubble. Hell, it would be hard to imaging 15 pts a night at this point. If he is doing that he will look like a very different player by then. So who knows what that version of DMAC could do and how many minutes he will get or who else is on the team. NO ONE.

Conclusion. The only definitive statements you can make are: he is athletic, has a motor, is driven, has gotten a lot better and more comfortable. He has enough courage to start to shoot from the outside having been a player who sucked at it. He puts in the work. He is coachable with a smart BB IQ and enough wisdom to know what he needs to get to earn more minutes.

Of all the young talent, he has taken the most of his opportunity. Same way R Mason was wired.

Given all those things, I no one should sell this kid short. I hope he becomes an all star. Is that likely, maybe not. Would I be suprised if he did. NO. Again, there is no cap on his getting better at this point. Only time will tell. I hope he stays healthy. That is always a big determining factor.

That's what we were talking about.

[hands11]

The problem with that is that the luxury tax is a zero sum financial transaction -- the money is taken from one team and given to another team. You are not saving anyone any money by making luxury tax exemptions, quite the opposite, you are encouraging them to spend more. That's why the luxury tax is in there in the first place.

The real problem here is the unexpected decline in the luxury tax which unfairly penalizes teams who thought they were playing by the rules in the old economic conditions. It makes sense to have a one year bump in the luxury tax equal to the difference between what people expected and what actually happened ($6 million).

The problem really is that people get stuck with free agent money that they can't do anything with. Like the clippers, there were two max deal free agents on the market and three teams with max deal money available. Maybe there should be a "John Doe" contract clause -- if I can't find someone I want for a year, I sign an imaginary John Doe player for that amount of money for one year, and get to sign a free agent for that amount of money next year. John Doe counts for luxury tax calculations and everything. Giving owners the flexibility to back out of the free agent market if there's nothing there will help keep contracts down. Plus the owners should shorten the max length of contracts by a year or two, that's been a real killer for a lot of teams who get suckered into giving long contracts to players who you know will not be productive in the last few years of the contract, like AI.

No systems will ever be perfect. But what I most don't like about this one is that is guarantees plays and insane amount of money and you can't just get ride of them very easily sometimes. It's actually not good for the game overall. Teams have to hold onto players and tie up roster spots that could be filled by better talent. Sure no one is sticking a gun to their heads telling them to do it but the over all rules of the league could help here.

As for the cap going down and teams getting pinched, I guess you have to pull your head up and see what is going on around you.

Same deal with the houses, banks, etc. People took to much risk. Now that it's not working out, they want bailed out. Well, the people that did not " taking as much risk" were actually also taking a risk. The risk of a lost opportunity. They deserve as much an opportunity to be rewarded for their decisions as the people who over extended themselves. Teams with the cap space should be able to get their pick of the litter at discount rates. That's their reward for their decisions. And if that leaves a lot of NBA talent on the street at dirt cheap prices, then that is the lesson to the players and the players union for the next negotiation. They are all in this together. Maybe they will allow the owners a more far deal that allows more flexibility in case stuff like this happens.

I predict salaries will go lower because ticket prices will need to go lower and merchandising sales will be dropping. Earning 5 million dollars over 5 years needs to be valued for what it really is. It's amazing. Earning 20 million over 5 year is just stupid money. These guys are like 35 when they are done. They are totally rich and had more babes then they now what to do with. They should be more then fine with that kind of cash. Actually they should be kissing the feet of every former NBA player and owner that build this league to the point they can make that kind of insane money. Contracts like Gilbert are not needed in any way shape or form. They only feel like deserve that because someone else got something close to it. It's all relative. Had the highest contract been 5 years 50M he would have been happy getting that.

Supply and demand should work both ways, not just when things are going up.

[hands11]

15/8 is good. i'd be delighted if DMac puts up 15/8. i'd be ecstatic if he puts up 15/8. For his draft position and salary 15/8 is outrageously good. All i was saying with regards to "he's just not that good" was that he wasn't as good as player that had a "limitless ceiling" that hands11 had claimed.

rabble rabble rabble

Just admit your were wrong instead of squirming out of this. 15/8 would be excellent and like someone else said, it depends on what go with that. Like I said, DMAC is kind of a CB Jr who is taller and have more hopes. That's what the raw material make up of him is similar to . Where he takes that talent, only time will tell.

I wasn't stepping out and staying he has a "limitless ceiling" as in I believe it is more likely then not that he comes Micheal Jordan. I said I will not place a limit on his ceiling at this point in his development. While the statement my sound similar, they are very different so stop making stuff up.

[hands11]

Jamison takes a ton of corner shots, just not all of them from 3 range. Songaila also bolts to the corner on pick and pops. Gil goes to Jamison on the corner all the time if he felt like he couldn't draw a foul or get the bucket. I'm more worried about who's going to be shooting the open three from the top of they key, where conventional wisdom argues is the most efficient spot to make a 3. DS filled that role (minimally) in '06-'07. Mason excelled in that role last season. Who's going to be that guy to receive the swing pass from Jamison and drill it? The right player paired up with arenas and jamison could make a killing standing out there. Rasul Butler's doing it with Paul and West. Courtney Lee is making a living doing the same.

AJ does not take a ton of corner shots. What are you watching? He takes most his shots around the basket baseline or coming across the middle, or from off-center top of the key.

We have few players taking the corner 3 shot. Mostly DS used to take it. James is taking it some now.

GA was a top of the key 3 pt shooter but he was accurate there.

[pancakes3]

Jamison operates almost exclusively from the baseline and the last time i checked the corner was along the baseline. hence in our offense, jamison would occupy the corner area and be the kickout option along that corner. it's just not as effective because he's not as comfortable bombing it from the 3 point line. DS was the top of the key guy since he never moved without the ball. He'd give it up at the top of the key after a half-hearted weave and sit there waiting for the kick out. the "corners" were usually reserved for our "finesse" big men who popped after picks rather than rolled.

here's one particularly memorable Jamison three from the corner:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVzxLAlTkzM

[Ruzious]

15/8 is good. i'd be delighted if DMac puts up 15/8. i'd be ecstatic if he puts up 15/8. For his draft position and salary 15/8 is outrageously good. All i was saying with regards to "he's just not that good" was that he wasn't as good as player that had a "limitless ceiling" that hands11 had claimed.

rabble rabble rabble

Just admit your were wrong instead of squirming out of this. 15/8 would be excellent and like someone else said, it depends on what go with that. Like I said, DMAC is kind of a CB Jr who is taller and have more hopes. That's what the raw material make up of him is similar to . Where he takes that talent, only time will tell.

I wasn't stepping out and staying he has a "limitless ceiling" as in I believe it is more likely then not that he comes Micheal Jordan. I said I will not place a limit on his ceiling at this point in his development. While the statement my sound similar, they are very different so stop making stuff up.

Ok, I've had enough of these stupid posts. You're telling someone to admit they're wrong made me snap this time. DMac is absolutely nothing like Caron Butler. And he doesn't resemble Dr. J in any possible way you can think of - physically, stylistically, skill-wise, favorite flavor of icecream, anything. Even if he grew out the 70's style big fro and dribbled with a tri-colored basketball, there would be nothing he'd have in common with Julius Erving. And any more posts with you blathering about unilimited ceilings, ceiling wax, or anything related to ceilings should get you an automatic ban.

[hands11]

Jamison operates almost exclusively from the baseline and the last time i checked the corner was along the baseline. hence in our offense, jamison would occupy the corner area and be the kickout option along that corner. it's just not as effective because he's not as comfortable bombing it from the 3 point line. DS was the top of the key guy since he never moved without the ball. He'd give it up at the top of the key after a half-hearted weave and sit there waiting for the kick out. the "corners" were usually reserved for our "finesse" big men who popped after picks rather than rolled.

here's one particularly memorable Jamison three from the corner:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVzxLAlTkzM

Ahh, I see the problem. Right. The corner is always the baseline. The baseline is not always the corner. People actually distinguish between the two. Most call the corner the corner or baseline 3 or corner 3. Calling someone a baseline player covers the area inside that down the the post.

AJ operates on the baseline and just in front of the rim and from 10 to 2 on the top of the key out to 3 pt range. He doesn't operate in the corner much.

As for DS, he does shot from the the corner or baseline 3. He shot from there plenty of times. He shot from the spot your talking about also but I clearly remember him spotting up and nailing shots from the corner also.

This is what you said "Jamison takes a ton of corner shots, just not all of them from 3 range."

I still hold that is not true. He doesn't take a lot of corner shots. He does from time to time but not a lot. He is inside that range on the baseline, not the baseline corner.

[hands11]

15/8 is good. i'd be delighted if DMac puts up 15/8. i'd be ecstatic if he puts up 15/8. For his draft position and salary 15/8 is outrageously good. All i was saying with regards to "he's just not that good" was that he wasn't as good as player that had a "limitless ceiling" that hands11 had claimed.

rabble rabble rabble

Just admit your were wrong instead of squirming out of this. 15/8 would be excellent and like someone else said, it depends on what go with that. Like I said, DMAC is kind of a CB Jr who is taller and have more hopes. That's what the raw material make up of him is similar to . Where he takes that talent, only time will tell.

I wasn't stepping out and staying he has a "limitless ceiling" as in I believe it is more likely then not that he comes Micheal Jordan. I said I will not place a limit on his ceiling at this point in his development. While the statement my sound similar, they are very different so stop making stuff up.

Ok, I've had enough of these stupid posts. You're telling someone to admit they're wrong made me snap this time. DMac is absolutely nothing like Caron Butler. And he doesn't resemble Dr. J in any possible way you can think of - physically, stylistically, skill-wise, favorite flavor of icecream, anything. Even if he grew out the 70's style big fro and dribbled with a tri-colored basketball, there would be nothing he'd have in common with Julius Erving. And any more posts with you blathering about unilimited ceilings, ceiling wax, or anything related to ceilings should get you an automatic ban.

Oh, so I guess when CB didn't play and DMAC stepped in for him he didn't play a game that was similar to a CB glue game of rebounds and assists. Right. I just made that up.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=290304025

6 assist. 8 boards.
Of course he doesn't score like CB but to say he has nothing in common with his is just being blind.

As for looking like Dr J. If you don't see it, who cares. Not a big deal. I just think he looks similar to him in the face. It's not like they are twins but they do look similar. It's not like comparing Patrick Ewing and Haywood. With a little Photo Shop work, I think I can make this work.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/433 ... hunder%3A1

http://bermansports.com/picturepages/080.htm





Man, Dr J has some long arms.
http://bermansports.com/drjnets.htm

Lastly, again, I never said he has an unlimited ceiling. That isn't true of anyone. I said - at this point I don't think you can put a ceiling on him. A lot of people didn't think he would come this far and even if they did most wouldn't have though he could make an outside shot, specially not at this range under pressure with the clock down to 2 seconds.

As for you criteria for banning someone. Right. I've really stepped over the line with my posts. May a 1000 flies attack my only Camel.

[Ruzious]

Forget the real non-doctor Doc's arms. His "hands" are longer than Shaq's.

[pancakes3]

all black people look the same.

[barelyawake]

More you look around, the more it looks like getting Hinrich is both the most plausible, and the most effective (of the possible). Hinrich can be had fairly cheaply (say expirings and a second rounder or Young). Then, you get the PF (either draft or trade). And then deal with the tax situation (like AJ for expirings).

Hinrich/Crit
Arenas/Caron
Caron/Dom
Blake/McGee
Haywood/Blatche

I'd like to see a tougher vet big on that team. A guy like Damp might be possible. There are other players I'd like better: Howard, Stephen Jackson, etc... But, we have expiring salaries to match; he does fit all the things we need out of a guard next to Arenas; and the Oxen do want to dump him for basically expirings and a bump (second round pick and Opec or something).

Side note, I think Julian Wright is primed to be stolen. Not sure where to fit that in. But, I think he's trapped on the bench; bound to get better; and can be had somewhat cheaply. A Dom/Julian rotation would cover the defensive flaws of a lot of this team.

[nate33]

I'd really like to add Hinrich. He's a nice fit on this roster as a compliment to Arenas. The only caveat is that we would need to include the contracts of Stevenson and Songaila as the "filler", not James and/or Etan. We simply can't afford to pay Hinrich if Stevenson and Songaila are still on the roster.

I'd seriously consider something like: Young + Songaila + Stevenson for Hinrich.

[hands11]

Forget the real non-doctor Doc's arms. His "hands" are longer than Shaq's.

I guess he had both.

My God. That also almost doesn't look real. The ball looks like a toy nerf ball.

[closg00]

Even as the season winds-down, teams are calling-up players from the D-League left and right. Why make Crit a lock for our future back-up? I'd like us to take a look at Will Conroy, perhaps in the off-season.

Will Conroy of the Albuquerque Thunderbirds was today named NBA D-League Performer of the Week for games played during the week of March 16, 2009. Conroy becomes the first player to earn the honor twice during the 2008-09 season and is also the all-time leader with a total of four Performer of the Week nods.

Conroy led the Thunderbirds to a 2-1 record this week, averaging nearly a triple-double with 25.7 points, 8.3 rebounds and 12.7 assists while setting a new season high with 18 assists in Friday’s loss to Rio Grande Valley. His scoring high from the week came on Saturday when he netted 29 points in a win over Erie.

[nate33]

Even as the season winds-down, teams are calling-up players from the D-League left and right. Why make Crit a lock for our future back-up?

Because we've committed to paying him $1.5M next year.