Long Term Plan? (merged threads)

[pancakes3]

well, i think that's what he did last season. he came in, put up 10/5 in 24 mins of play while playing (defending) the center position. Not eyepopping, but not completely effing it up either. there was the occasional overdribbling and fadeaway jumpers, but definitely not as many as there were in seasons prior. he's proven himself to me at least that he's our 3rd big coming off the bench and can play competently enough to keep a lead. He was less-than-stellar last year against starters but domninated against bench players. In a strictly reserve role next season, blatche will look a lot better.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

badinage, I think Blatche would get 15 and 8 easily if he played the minutes Jamison does.

If he played as many minutes as Jamison AND was the primary offensive option he'd put up 20 & 11. Last season Jamison touched the ball nearly every time down the court and might have passed once for evey 8 shot's he took, and I think that's on the conservative side. Blatche would get his while playing better defense, and racking up 3-4 assists every night. After seeing how terrible this team is with Jamison as the focal point I'm inclined to throw Blatche out there and have the offense flow through him. It certainly can't be worse than it was last year.

I agree.

Just my opinion from watching hoops for 35 years, and managing to fool enough professors to get a BS and an MS -- If Blatche played the same amount of minutes Jamison did, he'd have had to do it over 2 games because he'd have fouled out.

IF he managed to play 40 minutes without fouling out, and did so in as many games as Jamison, I believe the Wizards would have won more games.

[keynote]

This is well-traveled ground, but here's Simmons taking a few more shots at the Wizards' Long Term Plan in an interview on Slamonline.com describing why he'd be a good hire for the Wolves' vacant GM position:

Another huge mistake: teams overpaying non-foundation guys and/or paying max money to guys who aren’t max players. The Spurs and Celtics have already shown us how to build a contender: Find three blue-chippers (not just talented guys but character guys), then surround them with role players who fit around those guys. It’s not rocket science....

I’d ... bottom out like the Zombie Sonics did and build around cap space and draft picks. Look at what Presti did last season: Because he smartly kept some cap flexibility and didn’t just shoot his wad like everyone else, it allowed him to steal Nenad Krstic for a very fair price midseason, then swipe Thabo Sefolosha from the Bulls for a bad pick in a bad draft. Those guys could absolutely be the 7th and 8th men on a contender. Combined, both of those guys made something like $6.5 million last year and they could both be flipped in a bigger trade. Would you rather have that combo, or would you rather tie up your cap by splurging $25-33 million on Udrih, Desagana Diop, Matt Carroll, Francisco Garcia, Andray Blatche and all the other mediocre guys that were overpaid. No-brainer, right? Well, why was Presti the onRandy Foyely one who thought of this game plan ahead of time? BECAUSE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THESE GMs AREN’T THAT SMART!!!!! THEY PANIC!!!!!!!!!

I would never overpay a guy who wasn’t a top-three foundation guy. I just wouldn’t. For instance, say I got the TWolves job. I really like Randy Foye. I think he could be one of the top-six guys on a championship team but not one of the top-three. Do I want to pay someone like that $55 million over five years? Of course not. If I overpay him, then I don’t have enough money left over to pay my top-three, which means he’d have to be one of my top-three… which means I’m not winning a title. I don’t understand why teams don’t think that way. For instance, Washington locked up their next three years with Arenas, Butler and Jamison… how can you win a title if those are your best three guys? They couldn’t even get out of the second round with them!!! Now you’re locking them up for another four years???? So short-sighted.

Anyway, the rest of the interview is worth the read.

[keynote]

By the way (OT), that interview started an odd little pissing contest between Simmons and former Slam EIC Ryan Jones. Jones goes off on Simmons in the article's comments section.

[Severn Hoos]

Blatche is overpaid? 5 years, $15M is overpaid? (OK, maybe in the real world, but in the NBA?) He's a young, relatively productive 7-footer. Maybe Simmons just doesn't like him, or thinks he's a negative influence on the other young players. But calling him overpaid cuts against his claim of paying role players as role players. That's exactly what Blatche is paid as. (Interesting that he starts that list with "would you rather tie up your cap by splurging $25-33 million..." - try half that, BS.) Of course, if you see him as a negative value, then even a vets' minimum contract would be overpaying. But I don't think that's the case - just a chance to take a swipe at an easy target.

Can't really argue with the other comment - I don't think AJ, CB, and Gil can win a title either. It would be a long shot, but they could do a Pistons-style run if the right pieces, coaching, and attitude were in place. (Prior to 2004, wouldn't you have said the same thing about whichever 3 Pistons you picked for the "foundation" players? How could you think Sheed, Rip, and Chauncey would win a championship?) But he also doesn't take the time to deal in reality. What would he have done? Let AJ walk? Which might have led to Gil walking as well? And you're left with an oft-injured 3rd option as your best player? And another year to wait, while hoping to convince someone to take all your FA $? As we hashed and rehashed here, there wasn't a magical answer - just a number of less-than-perfect scenarios. Fortunately for Simmons, he doesn't have to deal in the realm of reality.

Come to think of it, I do hope he gets that T-Wolves gig...

[nate33]

Yup, the Arenas and AJ signings were defensible at the time. Nobody could foresee Haywood's injury nor Arenas missing another entire season. The move I really didn't like was when we declined the opportunity to dump Jamison plus Etan or James for Wally's expiring. Given our record at the time, it would have been a good rebuilding move. It would have insured us the worst record in the league while forcefeeding Blatche and McGee more minutes.

We'd have ended up with two youngish foundation players (Arenas and Butler) plus plenty of luxtax flexibility to acquire a third; not to mention a better opportunity to draft Griffin.

[TheSecretWeapon]

I like Simmons, and I think he's funny, but I wouldn't want him running my basketball team. Yeah, the Spurs and Celtics do give a template for how to build a title team. But it's just that -- ONE template. In the NBA, Option A is: get a STAR -- a transcendent franchise player -- then you get a couple more really good guys, and a bunch of complimentary players, and voila -- titles.

But Option A isn't available to everyone because of the difficulty in acquiring that star. Getting a top pick in the draft is the usual way, but the Wiz had to get that top pick when Kwame Brown was coming out. Plus, I'd argue that Option A is a salary cap-induced template. Basically no one is able to pay more than 3 outstanding players. Even the Mark Cubans of the world run into balance sheet and cap rule constraints at some point.

But Option A isn't the only possibility. Option B is what the Pistons did -- collect really good players and work them hard with a great coach. The Wiz have before them either option because of the assemblage of players and assets they have available.

And by the way, we don't know whether and Arenas-Butler-Jamison "Big Three" can't win big. When everyone was healthy -- including the critical role players -- the team was good. And they're not stuck with them as their alpha dogs because they're going to have a high pick, with which they'll be able to add talent. I think they may need to make some moves -- shifting talent from the frontcourt to the backcourt -- but they're in position for a big turnaround, and to be a contender.

[pancakes3]

eh, i think option A is far and away the most successful method. The NBA is a players' league and talent trumps coaching, chemistry, etc. Occasionally you'll have an actual TEAM but more often than not, if you've got more HOFers than the other team, you'll get that ring (that 2004 pistons team argument really defies my argument here). You can't tell me that Phil Jackson and Red Auerbach are the two most transcendent basketball geniuses of all time and infinitely more basketball-wise than anybody else. I mean, they're good coaches... definitely... but they've also so happened to coach some of the greatest basketball talents ever assembled.

simmons isn't telling us anything that most of us don't already know: talent wins championships and even with a 90 million dollar payroll, if you splurge on mediocre talent like the knicks (duhon), you'll still be bounced from the playoffs. The tough part lies in acquiring/drafting that once-a-generational player and locking him in with a long term contract. Kobe/Duncan/MJ/Lebron were drafted. Garnett was half luck, half circumstance, and Shaq... he's just a social butterfly i guess. i think we've assembled a nice little collection of talent here but there are glaring holes. the overall talent between our pretty-good-4 isn't quite enough to overpower the uber-trios of other teams. IMO, we're one good guard away from being talented enough to legitimately challenge. then we'd have uniformly spread talent of the 2004 pistons and fill more of the "option b" that wizkev was talking about.

[doclinkin]

Wish we could splice this all into the Wiz Media thread.

What's most comical in all this is that Simmon's seems to think he's owed the position somehow. Why, because he parlayed internet clowning into a paying gig? So did Chad Ford but nobody takes him seriously as a basketball scout, much less a GM candidate. Simmons make s the classic internet nob mistake of thinking he's smarter than everyone just because he can second-guess 'em after the fact. Hell I can convince a handful of people that I know what I'm talking about, still doesn't make me one of the cognoscenti. Just a guy with a verbiage muscle.

Granted I credit BS with the foresight to recognize that everybody's schtick gets old. Might as well try to change your groove before you get stuck in it. Tom Knott's been writing the same column for years. The Kornheiser had a template any red arsed monkey could have typed out. Rick Reilly slips and gets stale every now and again. Sad is the aging clown, at soem point the audiences don't get you anymore.

So more power to him for trying. What fan, blogger, or 'RealGM' wouldn't want to make that step into the ultimate fantasy statomatic dream job. Without having put in any actual work beyond making a joke every now and again. Still, he's less funny when he's self-righteous, and frankly with his disdain for all things Wiz related this particualr parochial fan has no use for him when he ain't funny.

[hands11]

I'm on the "Blatche finally has a coach" bandwagon.

Flip is going to get the best out of Blatche because Saunders won't defer to Antawn Jamison on how to feel about Andray.

Coach and starting center. A combo he has never had. Lets see what he can do playing his natural position of PF along side Haywood before we give up on our very talented young 7-0er with handles, passing skills and a good contract.

Blatche has certainiy done enough wrong to get his share of the blame. I also remember that being true of Haywood. Opps.

I just wish last year was this year.

New top notch coach and hopefully great assistants along with him.
Gil buying into being a pass first PG and team leader. Shooting for triple double not the most pts.
Haywood healthy
Our younger players working hard over the summer and being taken under the wings of vets
CB committed to coming back in the best shape of his career
Blatche effectively coming into his 4th year after playing about 1700 mins in each of the last 2 years.
DMAC with an off season to continue to work on his outside shot
Nick Young continuing to mature after what I though was a late season light bulb moment.
McGee in year two - hopefully he learns enough this off season to find an effect role.

[spaceman_E]

Bump.

My long-term plan for our team now consists of waiting til the deadline and then dumping Jamison, Critt and Stevenson for expiring deals, using Miller or Foye as bait. Hopefully we can add future draft picks as well since we are going to need bodies for my plan. We then renounce our FA's except for Wood who we re-sign for about 5/40 and Dmac. This would leave us with about $42-45 mil committed to next year with a cap around 60. This leaves us enough for 1 max FA.

In order, I'd go for Bron(no shot), Bosh, a healthy Amare, Dirk. We then use our MLE on a starting SG (Thabo? Azubuike? Raja Bell? Ray Allen? or can we re-sign Miller after renouncing his rights?) The options aren't as sexy or as deep there but they will only need to split time with Young anyways. We then use the LLE, our draft picks and minimum salary contracts to fill out the roster, leaving us with a team salary less than this year, I estimate around $71-$73 mil with a lineup of...

Gil/1st rounder/vet
Raja Bell/NY
Butler/Dmac/2nd rounder
Bosh/Blatche/vet min
Wood/Mcgee/vet min

That doesn't leave us much flexibility for improvement but I think that team could make a run or 2 or 3 and even if we can't lure one of those big fish, there will still be lesser guys like Boozer/Kenyon Martin/Joe Johnson/Landry/Rudy Gay/Aldridge that could all fit as well.

Anyways, that's my dream scenario and seems a lot better than just re-signing everyone next year and waiting for Jamison to expire.

[ZonkertheBrainless]

With everybody dumping salary for 2010, 2009 should be a good year to make a run. I say we hold all our cards this year and go for it.

[BigA]

Yup, the Arenas and AJ signings were defensible at the time. Nobody could foresee Haywood's injury nor Arenas missing another entire season. The move I really didn't like was when we declined the opportunity to dump Jamison plus Etan or James for Wally's expiring. Given our record at the time, it would have been a good rebuilding move. It would have insured us the worst record in the league while forcefeeding Blatche and McGee more minutes.

We'd have ended up with two youngish foundation players (Arenas and Butler) plus plenty of luxtax flexibility to acquire a third; not to mention a better opportunity to draft Griffin.

There were reports that the inclusion of Etan was the dealbreaker for Cleveland. Do you think Jamison+Etan or James was really available? If the Wizards actually offered this and Cleveland declined, I think it was a mistake by the Cavs. If they had gone for that Lebron might have a ring.

[MJG]

Yup, the Arenas and AJ signings were defensible at the time. Nobody could foresee Haywood's injury nor Arenas missing another entire season. The move I really didn't like was when we declined the opportunity to dump Jamison plus Etan or James for Wally's expiring. Given our record at the time, it would have been a good rebuilding move. It would have insured us the worst record in the league while forcefeeding Blatche and McGee more minutes.

We'd have ended up with two youngish foundation players (Arenas and Butler) plus plenty of luxtax flexibility to acquire a third; not to mention a better opportunity to draft Griffin.

There were reports that the inclusion of Etan was the dealbreaker for Cleveland. Do you think Jamison+Etan or James was really available? If the Wizards actually offered this and Cleveland declined, I think it was a mistake by the Cavs. If they had gone for that Lebron might have a ring.

I think the rumor mill went something like this. They offered Szczerbiak for Jamison. We said absolutely not, not unless you take back Etan too. They said absolutely not, and that was that.

I'm sure it was more nuanced than that, and who knows how much of that is true, but that's the best we have to go on. I do agree that it was a big time mistake on their end if true. You're going for a title, trying to keep James from bolting. Why let Etan's extra year (over Eric Snow or some other expiring) break a deal that hugely favors you on the court?