Long Term Plan? (merged threads)

[pancakes3]

Butter, would blazer fans want:

Antawn Jamison and Mike James for Raef, Frye, and Rudy?

[Dat2U]

Nate, to me the only sure way to avoid the tax is the Butler to Portland scenerio (Wiz trade Butler, Etan, Stevenson for Raef, Outlaw, Rudy). We get rid of our worst contracts and save a boatload of money.

No team is going to trade an expiring for Songaila. The best we'll do is a Rasual Butler for Darius trade (to shave a year off of the contract).

After that, I'd try and do a 3-way deal where we trade Jamison to team X, team X and Wizards young players go to Dallas, and we get Josh Howard to replace Caron. We'd include our 2010 expirings. I'll come up with a trade.

I was just cruising the board to see if there was a realistic deal that could send Butler to the Blazers. First, let me say that I realize that Butler is an All-Star and arguably the Wizards best player. That being said, I know the Blazers are going to have to give up significant talent and/or take on bad contracts. for a player of his caliber. Like all Blazer homers, I'd prefer to keep the Oden, Aldridge, Roy core together.

Would the Wiz be interested in this type of deal mentioned by MHD? I saw some interest in Martell Webster by another poster, there are probably a couple of variables that could be played with to make this more appealing, like giving the Wiz 1st round draft picks.

I look forward to your input.

I hate the Butler trade. For some reason, mhd has left the reservation and has gone on a demented quest to trade Caron Butler. He has posted about 10 Butler trades on the Trade Board. They all seem to be aimed at trading Butler for youth and cap room. I never understood the logic because Butler is already fairly young and on a cap friendly contract.

For me, I don't see any Butler trade that is oriented around us trading quality (Butler) for quantity (i.e. a combo of decent young players and short contracts). If Butler is involved in a trade, it'll be the other way around. We'll trade Butler plus other pieces for a player even better than Butler.

I actually kind of like this trade. I'm not as hot on Butler as some are here. He's not a legit #1 option like Gil is and he's never been much of a defender at the SF spot and has an injury history. I'd make this deal if instead of taking Etan, Portland took Songaila instead. That would rid us of our two worst contracts, save a ton of money short term & long term and give us a future all-star at the SG position who reminds me so much of Ginobili.

[Butter]

Butter, would blazer fans want:

Antawn Jamison and Mike James for Raef, Frye, and Rudy?

Pancakes, I really don't think so. The Blazers are in a very unique situation right. I feel like they have pieces that a lot of other teams would value highly:

Salary cap savings from:
Lafrentz, Diogu, Outlaw, Blake, etc

Young Talent:
Outlaw, Rudy, Sergio, etc.

That doesn't mean that anyone would want those specific players, but in theory, the Blazers have a lot of attractive pieces. The problem is that the Blazers don't really have to do anything at all. They can let Lafrentz's deal expiring, extend their current players, and let this team continue to grow.

If they had the chance to upgrade their talent level for someone like Caron, obviously I think they do it, but if they make an offer, and teams like the Wizards aren't interested, they can just move forward with their current players.

Someone like Jamison is older than their target age, and his contract is the exact opposite of what they would ideally want. I do think he's a very talented player though, who could be a tremendous talent to the right team.

[mhd]

Nate, to me the only sure way to avoid the tax is the Butler to Portland scenerio (Wiz trade Butler, Etan, Stevenson for Raef, Outlaw, Rudy). We get rid of our worst contracts and save a boatload of money.

No team is going to trade an expiring for Songaila. The best we'll do is a Rasual Butler for Darius trade (to shave a year off of the contract).

After that, I'd try and do a 3-way deal where we trade Jamison to team X, team X and Wizards young players go to Dallas, and we get Josh Howard to replace Caron. We'd include our 2010 expirings. I'll come up with a trade.

I was just cruising the board to see if there was a realistic deal that could send Butler to the Blazers. First, let me say that I realize that Butler is an All-Star and arguably the Wizards best player. That being said, I know the Blazers are going to have to give up significant talent and/or take on bad contracts. for a player of his caliber. Like all Blazer homers, I'd prefer to keep the Oden, Aldridge, Roy core together.

Would the Wiz be interested in this type of deal mentioned by MHD? I saw some interest in Martell Webster by another poster, there are probably a couple of variables that could be played with to make this more appealing, like giving the Wiz 1st round draft picks.

I look forward to your input.

I hate the Butler trade. For some reason, mhd has left the reservation and has gone on a demented quest to trade Caron Butler. He has posted about 10 Butler trades on the Trade Board. They all seem to be aimed at trading Butler for youth and cap room. I never understood the logic because Butler is already fairly young and on a cap friendly contract.

For me, I don't see any Butler trade that is oriented around us trading quality (Butler) for quantity (i.e. a combo of decent young players and short contracts). If Butler is involved in a trade, it'll be the other way around. We'll trade Butler plus other pieces for a player even better than Butler.

Nate, I've watched Caron this year. He's gotten his numbers, but he's isn't playing with near the passion he's showed in the past. I think everyone agrees he isn't a #1 option. WOuld I love to keep him? Heck yes. However, you outlined the situation. The Wiz are knee-deep in luxary tax danger, and how do we get out of it? Looking at all of the young players in the nba, I think Rudy has a real chance at becoming a huge star. He's a pefect fit next to GA. I think he can become close to what Caron is in two years. If he were given starter minutes, he'd be averaging 15-17 right now. I like Travis Outlaw. He's huge and really long. He's also really young (just 24). I think he could be really solid at SF here playing good defense.

Regarding the draft, do I think we'll get the #1 pick? With the luck of the Wizards, heck no. Assuming we draft at 3-6 (Griff & Harden are gone, Rubio doesn't declare), we are left drafting what? Earl Clark? (Like him, but he'll take time). Jordan Hill? (Love him, but not potentially top 3). Thabeet? How many more centers do we need? I don't like that scenerio and would try and trade the pick ala the Jamison trade during the Devin Harris draft. Trade a 2010 expiring (James)+Songaila+filler (OPEC) for AK-47 and 2010 Knicks pick.

The new lineup becomes:
PG: Arenas/Critt
SG: Rudy/Young
SF: Kirilenko/Outlaw
PF: Jamison/Blatche
C: Haywood/McGee

So in essense, you swap Caron for AK, trade away the luxary tax probalems (DS, Songaila, Etan, and James) for a huge expiring in Raef, and get back Rudy Fernandes (a prospect who I'd take #3 in this upcoming draft after Griffin & Harden).

Note, that I'd only do the aforementioned deal if we didn't get a top 2 pick.

[Butter]

I actually kind of like this trade. I'm not as hot on Butler as some are here. He's not a legit #1 option like Gil is and he's never been much of a defender at the SF spot and has an injury history. I'd make this deal if instead of taking Etan, Portland took Songaila instead. That would rid us of our two worst contracts, save a ton of money short term & long term and give us a future all-star at the SG position who reminds me so much of Ginobili.

I think the Blazers could take on Songalia and Stevenson. Especially if they traded Rudy and Outlaw. The Blazers don't have a lot of depth behind Brandon Roy, so Stevenson would be a great for their back up depth. Songalia would likely play next to Pryzbilla, who could help cover his defensive short comings, and Songalia could back up Pryz's offensive short comings.

If that was something that the Wizards were interested in, I could definitely see some potential.

[mhd]

Dat, I think Etan is more untradeable than Songaila because he's got that darn trade kicker in his contract. Ivan Carter has said as much. I think Songaila has played so well that we can get a 2010 expiring from a team sitting out that bananza (i.e., the Hornets). It also helps that Songaila makes alot less than Etan does.

[Dat2U]

Dat, I think Etan is more untradeable than Songaila because he's got that darn trade kicker in his contract. Ivan Carter has said as much. I think Songaila has played so well that we can get a 2010 expiring from a team sitting out that bananza (i.e., the Hornets). It also helps that Songaila makes alot less than Etan does.

But what's the point of trading Etan for any other reason than he sucks? His contract expires next year anyways. There's no longer a great value in ridding ourselves of Etan's deal. If we want him off the roster that bad then we should just negotiate a buyout with him.

I'd rather trade Songaila b/c his contract is longer. Songaila may be playing better than he has, but its a stretch to say he some type of asset that we should keep or try to get value for.

[Pradamaster]

As luck would have it, there are two teams who meet this criteria: New Orleans and Orlando. EG might be able to work out a Songaila for Cook trade or a Songaila for R.Butler trade.

You forgot Cleveland. They could use another backup big behind the Wallace/Z/Sideshow Bob trio to fill the role Joe Smith did and they have Sasha Pavlovic, who has an unguaranteed deal next year and makes the same as Darius.

They could also want Jamison, in which case we could give them both Jamison and Songaila for Wally Szczerbiak's expiring deal and someone like JJ Hickson (or, more accurately, Lorenzen Wright).

[Induveca]

I really like Rudy Fernandez........but as a third option. Giving up Butler for the guy doesn't make any sense at all. He's been doing quite well as a 4th option, but he's been reaping the benefits of being a relative unknown.

Put him on a team and expect him to be a #2 or even a #3 guy and he'll get shut down. He's simply not quick or athletic enough to get his own shot. That being said, he'll be a deadly player in the right system.

I could see him excelling on the Knicks........other than that he's a spot up shooter for his career. He's far from Ginobili.

[fishercob]

Several topics from this afternoon that I wanted to touch on

@ Nate re the Big Trade: What we have always been led to believe is that Abe wouldn't pay the lux tax unless the Wiz were a legit contender. You're telling me Ernie couldn't convince him to pay the tax for someone like Bosh? Or if he could somehow swing a Jamison deal (maybe add our '10 first) for Rudy Fernandez, he wouldn't pay the tax to trade for Kirilenko? There's no way the just gave Gilbert all that money and then gave Ernie a mandate to build a contender and stay under the tax. The Big Trade is going to be our bets chance to drastically improve the team.

On Butler: the reason why I'm not particularly interested in dealing him is that I think he'd make a phenomenal second option. We have yet to see caron 2.0 (the Caron that cam back from last offseason with more range and a better all around game) next to a healthy Arenas. Assuming Arenas can return to form (and if he can't all bets are off and the Wiz are really doomed), they'll make a great 1-2 punch.

On Kirilenko: He has performed much better as 4 than a 3. The contract is oppressive, and I agree. But if you can get him for expirings and a pick -- you still have Jamison and either Blatche or McGee to play with to improve the backcourt.

[spaceman_E]

Find a way to turn Antawn Jamison into Rasheed Wallace. Deal our pick + expirings and maybe some youth for a star to put with Gil. Stay healthy.

[spaceman_E]

As luck would have it, there are two teams who meet this criteria: New Orleans and Orlando. EG might be able to work out a Songaila for Cook trade or a Songaila for R.Butler trade.

You forgot Cleveland. They could use another backup big behind the Wallace/Z/Sideshow Bob trio to fill the role Joe Smith did and they have Sasha Pavlovic, who has an unguaranteed deal next year and makes the same as Darius.

They could also want Jamison, in which case we could give them both Jamison and Songaila for Wally Szczerbiak's expiring deal and someone like JJ Hickson (or, more accurately, Lorenzen Wright).

You could also flip Song + 2nd round pick to Boston for Scalabrine perhaps.

[WizarDynasty]

the solution is our future draft pick earl clark. He will cover all the wholes..from perimeter defense..to doing all the things that jeffries did plus be able to hit the three...and will be a better rebounder. AS long as gil and haywood don't come back..adding him will push us to elite status.

[Wiz99]

You know what? For the time being, I'm done with the Wizards. Can't believe it. I've been a fan since I was a wee tot, living through the horrible late 80s and even worst 1990s. John "Hot Plate" Williams? Check, watched him eat himself out of the NBA. Outta Service Pervis? Check. Watched the super-promising center's knees disintegrate like sand castles at high tide. Wes Unseld's many many infamous trades, sending Ben Wallace, Sheed, Webber all away for pennies on the dollar? Check. Jordan turning the Wiz into his personal playground? Check. Jordan being unceremoniously booted? Check. It's been a long two decades.

But unlike then, when you rarely thought the team was going anywhere good, I feel like the Wizards franchise has squandered what for them is a historic chance these past 4 years. How are we 4-21, worst start in team history? How did we arrive at this point?

Things were looking up. Trade for Jamison, sign Arenas, new coach, a couple decent draft picks, Grand Theft Butler, first playoff series win in 20 years. Then we plateaued. We never progressed past being a .500 team.

I could sling blame. There's plenty to dole out. Oddly, I don't blame Eddie Jordan. After watching him coach for years, I've come to a peaceful point with him: he is what he is. But why was he coach for so long? How come Gilbert can hold this franchised hostage and insist we resign Mr. Aging All-O, No-D (Jamison) and Mr. 31% Shooting (Stevenson). How the HELL is it we rely on Juan effin Dixon, oh he of the very first Amazingly Sucky Thread? Why is Andre Blatche allowed to squander his talent, but Javale McGee is getting only 8 minutes a night? And above all, why haven't big moves been made to shake up the defensive complacency, landing us in the bottom quarter of the NBA in nearly every important defensive statistic, year after year? Worst off, why do we seem to have so few options for really turning this franchise around?

I propose no answers here. Just hear my plaintiff cry of woe.

[Wiz99]

[Induveca]

I hear you Wiz99. 4-22 is something I'm just choosing to ignore at this point unless a major trade happens. There's really no excuse for this.

Take a look at the Knicks, they only have 7 players of far lesser talent than we do, and at least they have won some games and are competing every single night. I think it's time for Grunfeld to go as well.

I simply don't trust the guy any longer after the Daniels trade.

[ZonkertheBrainless]

It's weird. Even though they're 4-22 I'd rather watch the zards than the other nba ball that's on. Then when the game's over I check out the box score to see how the young guys did.

McGee definitely gets pushed around and they pull him out and don't let him back in, usually. Blatche needs to get closer to the basket and use his go go gadget arms in the post. But I think the strong guys guarding him don't let him in. N1 is starting to look REALLY nice now that he understands the "two dribbles and make a move" thing. McGuire is looking GREAT for what he is. Wish he could hit a layup though, for how high he can jump he gets his shot blocked an awful lot near the basket. Small hands I think, makes it hard to go up strong. Haven't seen Crittendon yet.

I don't see McGee or Blatche being able to start yet. I can't see it in my mind's eye. They have to get MUCH stronger than they are now. McGee may be able to bulk up but Blatche is what he is, I think. We still need a starting PF who can play defense and rebound once AJ's contract is up.

I think N1 can start. He lets guys get their shoulder past him, he needs to get around screens better. But he's got the tools to do it and I can see him starting at the two.

I dunno. With Gil back at full strength and BH back, this should be a perfectly good team. I don't understand why they can't play perimeter defense. There are stretches where they seem to do fine, and then once they get tired or lose their focus or get frustrated the threes start raining down like Satan's piss. But if they ever get healthy they've got legit starters at every position, I'm sort of baffled why they're so lousy now. I can understand 25 wins lousy, but I'm not getting 8 wins lousy.

[Ced67]

I think a big part of the problem with this team is lack of toughness both mentally and physically so I think a couple of moves for the present and the future should be made to improve on those aspects. I think 1 person on this team has a good level of both mental and physical toughness so I would build it around him.

Move 1 Apparently Stephen Jackson has said that he would like to be traded out of Golden State and goven that GS really needs a shooting PF. I think we would make the perfect trade partners since Jamison and Jackson are about the same age and the leadership that they lose form Jackson can be replaced by Jamison. I like this move for us because we open up the PF position for a true PF and we also get a tough wing who can also handle the ball well, he's been running the point for stints in GS this year. Being that he's 6'8 it also allows Butler to spend some time at the SG spot which should help him defensively.

----Washington trades Antawn Jamison and Nick Young

----Golden St Trades Stephen Jackson, Anthony Randolph and Kelenna Azubuike

That probably seems steep sending Nick Young but given that Randolph was told to seek a trade and given that we would also need Azubuike's contract I think they would want another promising player in that deal. Jamison is 32 and I don't think they trade two of their key wing players to get an aging PF who could break down at any moment given his age. I'm thinking realistically.

Move 2 Move 2 is a Chris Bosh trade. I think Toronto will be looking to move him for value given that there is about a 99% chance he bolts in 2010 given the current state of the team. Also the chances that they can resign another big name FA in 2010 with that open cap space is slim. Toronto isn't a very attractive city and I don't believe they have ever signed a big name free agent. Vince Carter and Bosh where both draft picks and JO was a trade. So I think they will look to move Bosh for a young corner stone with a contract that will keep him there for at least a few years and that can also put butts in the seats. Going up and down the NBA the only pieces I found on teams that would actually make that trade are:

Kevin Martin -- Unknown and won't fill seats
Brandon Roy -- I dont think Blazers make this trade
Josh Smith -- Not a #1 option
Al Jefferson -- Bosh prob. leaves Minnesota in 2010 if traded
Gilbert Arenas -- Would only happen if Arenas comes back healthy this season for an offseason trade
Caron Butler -- Wont put butts in the seats, and is a questionable #1 option
Josh Howard -- Not a #1 option and wont fill seats
Melo -- Not gonna happen
Rodney Stuckey -- Not gonna happen, Pistons could just sign Bosh in 2010 and keep Stuckey
Monte Ellis -- Wont fill seats and is not a #1 option
Danny Grainger -- I dont think Indiana does this
Bynum -- This could happen but Bynum isn't a #1 option right now
Rudy Gay -- Could happen but Bosh prob leaves Memphis in 2010, its Memphis
Beasley -- Hasn't shown enough to warrant a Bosh trade
Devin Harris -- NJ doesn't trade him
Andre Iguodala -- Not a #1
Amare -- Leaves in 2010

The most realstic options would be Arenas(if healthy), Rudy Gay and Bynum and because this is a Wizards board I'll take Arenas.

--Washington trades -- Gilbert Arenas

--Toronto trades-- Chris Bosh
Because we lose Nick Young in the GS trade I pick up James Harden in the draft to be a go to bench scorer.

New lineups:

Washington
PG -- Mike James(for the time being, make improvements in either 2010 FA or draft)
SG -- Caron Butler / James Harden
SF -- Stephen Jackson / D. McGwire
PF -- Chris Bosh / Blatche / Songaila
C -- Brendan Haywood / McGee
------- A lot of much needed toughness, Bosh isn't the biggest PF, but he does play with toughness and after the Olympic experience seems to have taken on more of a leadership role on both ends of the court. He is playing with passion now, even though his current team really isn't. Stephen Jackson went to GS and immediately took a leadership role and even though that team didn't play a lot of defense he at least played with passion and energy, I think these moves along with Butler would make a great core.

Still missing is a tough PF/C to come off of the bench, I like Blatche and McGee but if we could move one to get a physical, tough PF, ie Milsap(doubt this happens given is recent production), David Lee, Leon Powe, Carl Landry, I do it. Again I like the both of them, especially McGee, but they get knocked around in the post too easily and would get destroyed against Boston.

Toronto

PG -- Calderon
SG -- Arenas
SF -- Moon
PF -- Bargnani
C -- J. Oneil
--------This is an undersized lineup for Toronto but it will be an exciting one, they might not play a lick of defense but they will score points in the regular season and sell tickets.

[spaceman_E]

CEd, I like your first idea, but don't want Kelena's lengthy deal on the books. This deal works in the checker though... Jamison, Young, + Dixon for Jackson, Randolph, + Marcus Williams(Or Bellinelli but Williams is an expiring).

I'd then try this 3 way:
Knicks get: Mike James + Etan
Knicks send: Malik Rose + Jeffries + 2010 2nd round pick.

Wiz get: Rasheed + Jeffries + Knicks pick
Wiz send: James, Etan, Blatche

PIstons get: Blatche + Rose
Pistons send: Wallace

We take on an extra year in JJ but we also dump Rose after this season and we aren't going to be in the FA frenzy anyways.
The Knicks save cap for 2010 which is why they add the pick and give up two players they don't use anyways.
The Pistons get a cheap, young big for a guy they are just going to let expire anyways.
We can also just cut the Pistons out if they don't like their take.

Our 15 man depth chart would then look like...
Gil/Critt/Williams
Sjax/Stevenson
Caron/Dmac/JJ
Wallace/Randolph/Song/Rose/Pech
Wood/Mcgee

This allows us to draft BPA (hopefully a bench scorer though if not Griffin). We re-sign Sheed for 7-9mil, cutting salary there and in Rose expiring. This lineup has toughness, defense, rebounding, length, a #1 option, quality 2,3,4,5 options, decent athleticism, and quality youth for the future especially down low.

[nate33]

spaceman_E, I just don't see the logic in sacrificing any assets whatsoever to get Rasheed Wallace. He's 34 years old. Players are rarely effective past 34 and almost never effective past age 36. Also, the odds are pretty thin that he'll choose to stay in Washington when his contract expires this summer

Ced67, that's an interesting plan. I'd definitely go for the Arenas for Bosh part. Arenas would have to come back and play well before the Trade Deadline for Toronto to consider it though. But you make a good point that Arenas is a star that will put butts in seats. I think Toronto would need to follow up by sending Calderon somewhere for a SG or SF, but that's not our concern.

I'm not opposed to trading Jamison for Jackson, but you're forced to jump through hoops to make it happen because the contracts don't match. I don't like the idea of giving up Young when the team we're left with has so few decent guards as it is. (Butler isn't a good enough ball handler to play guard for an extended period of time without a true PG with him.) After acquiring Bosh, I think I'd prefer to shop Jamison for a SG or PG in your scenario. Jamison + Etan for Hinrich + Gooden works. Gooden's contract expires this summer. (Better yet would be to trade Jamison for Rudy Fernandez and filler, but I don't think that's likely.)

James + Pecherov could be sent to NY for Rose's expiring.

That would leave us with:

PG Hinrich/Crittenton
SG Young/Harden
SF Butler/DMac
PF Bosh/Blatche/DSong
C Haywood/McGee

That's a pretty good young lineup with a fairly lean payroll. Bosh will cost the max salary to resign and Hinrich and DSong are overpaid, but everyone else on the roster has a favorable contract or a rookie deal. If we grew more confident in Blatche, we could probably trade DSong for a 2010 expiring.