John Hollinger wrote:The net effect, multiple league sources tell me, is that the cap is likely to increase little, if any, next season. Whether it increases will depend largely on team's walk-up sales the rest of the season.
That has huge implications league-wide because the luxury tax level moves in lockstep with the cap. Teams have built their salary structures on the assumption of a rising tax -- but instead, many teams are locked into salaries for next season that will increase 10 percent without any corresponding increase in the tax level.
*snip*
And if you think the summer of 2009 looks bad, just wait until the much-hyped summer of 2010. First, the league's revenues are likely to be much lower in 2009-10 than they are this season, and that's the number that's the basis for setting the 2010-11 cap. The many season-ticket holders and sponsors who couldn't get out of their commitments this fall instead will jump ship a year from now, creating a revenue shortfall league-wide.
*snip*
To illustrate, I modeled a situation in which league revenues increase by 2 percent in 2008-09 but declined by 3 percent in 2009-10. I'm not saying this will happen, but just humor me for a second.
If that were the case, the cap would decrease by about 0.5 percent in 2008-09 ... and then it would decrease by a whopping 5.6 percent in 2009-10. The cap would go all the way down to $55.2 million that year.
Scroll to bottom of the page for Hollinger's commentsWow! That throws a monkey wrench into the long term plan. No increased salary cap next year? A salary cap in the $55M range the year after? I'll plug in the numbers from my spreadsheet, assuming we land the #4 pick in the draft and we resign Haywood in 2010.
Code: Select all
Player 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12
Arenas,Gilbert 14.65 16.19 17.73 19.27
Jamison,Antawn 9.93 11.65 13.36 15.08
Butler,Caron 9.25 10.03 10.81 -
Thomas,Etan 6.86 7.35 - -
James,Mike 6.20 6.40 - -
Haywood,Brendan 5.50 6.00 7.00 7.50
Songaila,Darius 4.26 4.55 4.84 -
Stevenson,Desha 3.62 3.89 4.15 -
Blatche,Andray 2.74 3.00 3.26 3.52
Young,Nick 1.60 1.75 2.69 -
Pecherov,Olesky 1.45 1.55 2.38 -
McGee,JaVale 1.39 1.50 1.60 2.46
Javaris Critten 1.38 1.48 2.28 -
McGuire,Dominic 0.71 0.83 - -
2009 pick (#4) - 3.01 3.23 3.46
2010 pick (#23) - - 1.20 1.29
2011 pick (#23) - - - 1.24
Total Salary 69.54 79.17 74.55 53.83
Salary Cap 58.68 58.30 55.20 55.20
Luxury Tax 71.15 71.13 67.34 67.34
Money Available 1.61 -8.04 -7.20 13.52
We're totally screwed unless something is done. We're now $8M over the cap next year and $7M over the cap even after Etan and James are unloaded (assuming Haywood is resigned to a modest deal). Heck, we're even screwed in 2011/12 once we resign Butler.
Jamison's new contract may turn out to be a catastrophic mistake. It could potentially cost us Haywood and DMac. We need to shed contracts and we need to do it now.
Given these cap projections, it'll be difficult to painlessly dump James or Etan and save luxtax room next season. It's going to be even harder to dump Songaila or Stevenson because nobody is going to want to take on salary in 2010/11.
EG needs to get on the phone. He should first attempt to dump Stevenson. Stevenson has proven to be unnecessary and his contract lasts until 2011, impacting the resigning of Haywood. With his injury though, it may be impossible to unload him.
If he can't dump Stevenson, Songaila should be on the block next. Songaila has played well and several teams are in dire need or a quality backup PF. Again, Songaila for Cook, Songaila for Rashual Butler, or Songaila for Pavlovic are possibilities. We'll miss Songaila, but he's a luxury we can't afford.
Dumping Etan and/or James should definitely be explored to help avoid the luxtax crunch in 2009; but that won't address our problems in 2010/11 so it won't help in the retention of Haywood. My guess is that EG has been working the phones to dump Etan for years now and hasn't found any takers. He may have a plan to unload James, but if he is packaged with another player (Pecherov?) he won't be able to impliment it until February 10th.
The bottom line though is that in the likely event that EG can't dump any of our crappy contracts, EG must seriously consider trading Jamison. It's no longer a theoretical conversation on whether or not an aging Jamison will help this team going forward and if he's worth the money. It's now a choice between keeping Jamison or keeping Haywood and DMac. I don't think it's possible to keep them all past 2010.
I'm going to have to stop being so greedy with Jamison trades. After seeing this Hollinger column, I might be willing to trade Jamison + Stevenson straight up for LaFrentz's contract. Or Jamison + Stevenson straight up for Wally's contract.
How about Jamison + Etan + Stevenson for LaFrentz + Frye + Diogu? That saves $1M instantly, $22.8M next year, $17.5M in 2010/11, and $15.1M in 2011/12. Portland gives up garbage for Antawn Jamison.