Long Term Plan? (merged threads)

[yungal07]

Earlier this year, I proposed a "Wizards want Salmons" thread on the trade board -- it didn't go to well. The Kings want expirings and a pick for Salmons...we don't have expirings and our pick is too high. We just aren't good trading partners with the Kings.

[miller31time]

I like John Salmons and I think he'd be a great fit on this team, but are you guys seriously thinking that trading a 20/10 player in the prime of his career for a slightly-above-average-at-best shooting guard and a 2010 expirirng is a great plan?

I'm not the biggest Jamison fan but I think he could and should fetch much more than that.

[barelyawake]

For those of you who grew-up in this area, did you EVER think that friggin', DC Go-Go music would become the fad? Well, it's 24/7 on MTV now. FYI they are singing about the Skins in rap songs, when it ought be DC basketball. If this isn't the moment to make a move for the Wiz, then I simply don't know when is. You have everyone around the world looking to Washington, and the first basketball President in the White House. The fans, the DC media, etc. MUST pressure the Wiz not to be safe. E-mail Abe with your shoot the moon pleas. Here's the best part. We have a safety net if we trade for vets (and defense) and have an Icarian flame out. John Wall falls into your lap.

We need more articles comparing the Wiz situation with the Celtics' situation. More pressure on Abe not to play safe. No more waiting on Blatche to grow-up and save us. Get us a tough, star big and build around defense.

[Wizards2Lottery]

I like John Salmons and I think he'd be a great fit on this team, but are you guys seriously thinking that trading a 20/10 player in the prime of his career for a slightly-above-average-at-best shooting guard and a 2010 expirirng is a great plan?

I'm not the biggest Jamison fan but I think he could and should fetch much more than that.

Fans know that his 20/10 isn't that valuable due to his horrendous defense. No one is going to give up much for his contract + age + skill set. We need to take whatever we can get as long as we get a decent player in return.

This team is going absolutely no where until Jamison is either the sixth man or he's completely off the team.

[fishercob]

I like John Salmons and I think he'd be a great fit on this team, but are you guys seriously thinking that trading a 20/10 player in the prime of his career for a slightly-above-average-at-best shooting guard and a 2010 expirirng is a great plan?

I'm not the biggest Jamison fan but I think he could and should fetch much more than that.

Fans know that his 20/10 isn't that valuable due to his horrendous defense. No one is going to give up much for his contract + age + skill set. We need to take whatever we can get as long as we get a decent player in return.

This team is going absolutely no where until Jamison is either the sixth man or he's completely off the team.

I actually think that Dat might be right that financial flexibility is more important than the player we get in return. The player we get in return for Jamison wont be good enough to make us a title contender (unless we land Griffin and he's All-Star level good right away, which I think has an overall probability of about 5%) . So what we need is the flexibility to use our other assets to make that huge acquisition -- upgrade at PF. At that point, we'll be in a position to sign an Anthony Parker-type player, who is comparable to a Salmons.

So yeah, tough as it would be for the organization to see to Joe Fan a trade of Jamison for cap space, it makes more sense than Jamison for Salmons or even Rip.

[barelyawake]

Our long term plan ought to be to dump Blatche and develop McGee. We need a tougher player (IMO a vet) to fill Blatche's (and/or AJ's) spot to help develop McGee. He ought to be priority one in terms of young players to develop -- followed by Young and Dom. You just can't develop three bigs at once (as in Griffin/Hill/Thabeet, Blatche and McGee). McGee is a keeper. But, if you want him to develop to potential, we need to give him mins and a vet mentor. Both things that Blatche prevents. McGee always looks like he understands what is unfolding, while Blatche (though very talented) looks too often lost/passive. We used to excuse it with age -- rightfully so. Blatche ought to fetch us a nice player back (especially in a package). In my mind, it was always a choice between the two. My mind is made up. Put faith in McGee. Let Blatche develop into a nice player on another team, while we get us a leader to help this team develop in the toughness dept.

[doclinkin]

Our long term plan ought to be to dump Blatche and develop McGee. We need a tougher player (IMO a vet) to fill Blatche's (and/or AJ's) spot to help develop McGee. He ought to be priority one in terms of young players to develop -- followed by Young and Dom. You just can't develop three bigs at once (as in Griffin/Hill/Thabeet, Blatche and McGee). McGee is a keeper. But, if you want him to develop to potential, we need to give him mins and a vet mentor. Both things that Blatche prevents. McGee always looks like he understands what is unfolding, while Blatche (though very talented) looks too often lost/passive. We used to excuse it with age -- rightfully so. Blatche ought to fetch us a nice player back (especially in a package). In my mind, it was always a choice between the two. My mind is made up. Put faith in McGee. Let Blatche develop into a nice player on another team, while we get us a leader to help this team develop in the toughness dept.

Haywood can help McGee develop at the center spot, defensively anyway. I'm of the mind that a Big Man specialist will be the person who helps McGee most. He has an innate toughness in many ways, such that while I agree he needs to be challenged --and frankly so does Blatche, who I think would respond best to a hardass on his case-- he needs most to learn some fundamentals of footwork, anticipation, conditioning, and key things that only the fraternity of star Bigs can truly understand. Sweeping hook, drop step, when and how to use your size as an advantage, how to kneel into your man's stance or lean back and disrupt him even when he has position, how much the refs will let you get away with if you brace yourself low to dislodge him. But more than anything, how to develop a showcase of unstoppable moves. No available vet Big will ahve the hall-of-fame repertoire this kid is capable of learning.

Yeah I want an infusion of emotional toughness and basketball smarts. On the floor as well. But if you track the Wiz' current shortfalls and least output, where we are the most stunted is in our backcourt production.

I want a veteran swingman or guard. Or even a college postseason defensive champion who has ballhandling attack skills and a deep ball. Because right now we are dead last in 3pt production as well. I want the ballhandling attacking/slashing/ efficient-shooting version of DeShawn Stevenson. I want an upgrade. Dom's developing, but needs an outside shot, a midrange jumper and a finishing move on the offensive putback.

Also, clearly we need some production at the back-up PG position. Critt is coming along, but can't shoot yet. Yeah we get Gil back, but the fact is, playing it safe, we don't even know how much of Gil we get back. Plus the best way to develop our bigs and get them confidence, whether starting or with the second unit is to feed them the ball when and where they can do something with it. Gil's great, I love him, but occasionally he'll put a little too much quirk into a pass, instead of dropping it gentle where his bigs need it most.

It's been a long time since we've had a true point-minded guard out there. Especially one who had the option of an outside shot. Even Daniels was a ball-control PG more than a shot creator, technician tactician. He would drop the ball in where and when it was safe, but didn't see the play developing before it happened.

This is one reason I've been so hard on the Steph Curry megaphone. And one reason why, if we don't land Big Griff it's a mixed blessing, maybe we slip to where it's reasonable that we take the undersized skinny supergunner. That he's the best player available, regardless of position or doubts. Because if you check his record against top competition, kid comes up large. Watch him in the tourney, he's raising his game. Look back through his college career: he's consistently bobbing to the top of significant measures. The average 'win score' of a college point guard is 7.0.. Steph came into the league averaging a 10+ tied with Rod Stuckey. Last year he posts a 12.1 This year a 12.7. For point of reference: Brandon Roy topped all 'point guards' the year he was drafted with an 11.8. Mario Chalmers came out with a 10.4. (Your average Center or Power forward carries a 12.4 due to the number of rebounds they pull, and low number of TO's).

And even in games where he doesn't shoot well early, most often he scores the helloutta the second half, or rebounds 7-8 boards against the opposing frontcourt, steals 5 swipes or drops 8 dimes. Kid has game recognition, never rattled, always willing to do whatever it takes. And can shoot from any angle, any distance with precision and certitude, especially the later int he game and the tighter the score, bigger the stakes.

Only thing he doesn't do right now is fight his way through a hard pick. But he'll figure it out, hes' stronger than he looks. He's a better athlete than say Rip Hamilton despite the height difference. What he does do is make the adjustment. Kid is the top ball thief in the game right now. He can see what to do and where to be.

We have a front court, developing. What I want is a floor general with a lifetime of experience around the game, and a belief that wins mean more than pride or anything else. Kid could teach Gilbert a thing or two about being a soft-spoken assassin. How to raise your game. How to learn from your betters and improve every year. Seems to me he'd make the second team better, and challenge Gilbert to speak with his actions on court first and last.

I'd take Nick Calathes. I'd take the keystone winning PG from whatever National Champion team. Especially if I can get them in the second round, Mario Chalmers-like. But I want most of all to recruit ball smarts in the form of an on-the-floor strategist in a ballhandling position who can keep everyone organized, and make the youngsters look damn good.

[Ruzious]

Doc, I'd buy a ticket on your bandwagon - if Arenas wasn't here. I don't think you pay a guy 112 zillion dollars and then say - we're giving the keys to a skinny rookie. Those 3's should go way up next season - with Gil's return and hopefully better results at the 2 (Danny Green perhaps splitting time with Young). I love Curry's game, but I view him as a luxury item for the Wiz, and I couldn't get myself to use the high lotto pick on him.

[nate33]

If we don't land the #1 pick, then I'd be open to trading down from #3 or so to #8 or so while picking up a decent player in the process. If we traded Etan and the #3 for Mike Miller and the #7; and then drafted Curry, we'd be loaded next year:

PG Arenas/Curry/Critt
SG M.Miller/Stevenson/Young
SF Butler/McGuire
PF Jamison/Blatche/Songaila
C Haywood/McGee

It would be like adding an entire starting lineup to our current roster. We'd be adding Curry, Arenas, Miller, Blatche and Haywood; that's a playoff team by themselves!

The only problem is that it leaves us with lots of "good" players but no potential superstars to pair with Arenas. I'd prefer to work out a Bosh trade (or draft Griffin, of course). But if neither are possible, this is a decent backup plan.

[Wiz99]

This isn't a situation that one big move will bail us out. That's why I'll go on record right now and say, no matter what we do with Jamison, who we draft, I think the turning point will only come when we trade Arenas.

As incredibly blessed as he is with physical tools, he's never shown himself to be the kind of all around superstar every championship team is built around. Can he score? Yes. Can he be clutch? Absolutely. Does he play great D and inspire his teammates to do the same? No. In fact, he's on record mocking Eddie Jordan for asking him to play harder on D. That begs the most important question, Is he a leader? No. He's not a Duncan, a Kobe, a KG who demands the best from his running mates and holds them accountable. He's a lone wolf. Not the pack leader.

So, I'm going on record now. Like I did 4 years ago saying Jamison's O would help us reach .500 ball, and eventually Jamison's no D ways would put a cap on our growth beyond it. We'll eventually have to move Gil.

And that's why I'm on the same Curry bandwagon as Doc. Over the next 2 to 3 years we should draft flat out winners like Curry, without concern if there's currently a vet on our roster in their spot. Including Gil.

So here's my plan:
* Trade Jamison for the best you can get - Salmons is a good idea if we can swing it
* Hire a coach who can develop a mean streak in this team and press our big men to develop - I'd love Laimbeer
* Hopefully draft Curry
* Trade Gil - might take a couple years until he's only got 3 years left on his deal and he looks more affordable, and a couple years might be necessary to prove he can stay healthy

[barelyawake]

Doc, I sorta agree with everything you said. Let me check. Blatche has a ton of potential. Check. Backcourt is obviously the most major concern. Check. There are no P.J. Browns or Zos left out there that we can reasonably trade for. Check.

Here's where I'm coming from. The moment I read the article that AJ had to separate the lockers because the youngins were joking around too much pre-losses, that's when things changed IMO. That's when you've lost the team. That's when you desperately need to bring in new leadership or risk losing the whole squad IMO. To me, a kid's development in the NBA is a fire. Kid comes in ready to take on the world, and it's all new so this is when he's most willing to accept dirrection. Each season that you pile up losses and lack of leadership, the more you risk it becoming a job. The more the kid cares more about the pools and the strip clubs, and less about the sweat and blood needed to win game six in a rough series. Now, obviously some players have an inner flame that takes longer to put out. Some are able to re-ignite. But, if you want to ensure development of a player he needs: a mentor, mins and wins.

Next thing is I don't see a top three SG or PG in this draft. Could be there. I haven't been studying the draft that long. He doesn't pop right out at me. And IMO you don't waste a top three pick on anyone but a big, unless the wingman is a surefire, two-way playing star. You don't waste a top three pick on a swingman, that in normal drafts (say next year) you can grab with a #17 pick, just because you need that position. Add to that there are a ton of SGs that I've wanted here that are available in free agency. Add to that the fact that I like vet PGs as back-ups, and we have James for another year (thus putting off that need). Good thing since there are no vet PGs in free agency. Add to that the fact that I like Crit's potential. And finally, add to that I see some real steals in the SFs late in the first round (as the draft stands today).

So, yes I agree Blatche has great potential. So did Kwame. And I'm sure other teams see it as well in Blatche (which makes him a good trading piece). But, since he was one of the ones AJ had to send to timeout, and since there have been a few articles where AJ called Blatche out, I just don't see the kid reaching his top potential without a tough vet here. And we both agree that vet isn't around -- unless, as a last ditch effort, you throw Joe Smith on the end of the bench. We can't trade with Jordan to get Okafor. He wants us to lose. Rash Wallace is never coming back here. Dirk and Duncan aren't coming here. That leaves guys like Boozer, Brand, JO, Marion and Camby (if you want a two-way player, and I do). Thus, in my mind you swap him out for a semi-leader, who plays both ways, and bring in a young big with leadership potential (say Griffin or Hill). I'm not talking about dumping Blatche for nothing. I'm talking about trading him in a package for a good vet (and more than likely a draft pick). I'm looking at timing, team chem and available trades. And I see the most options for success when Blatche is used as a trading piece, rather than developed to potential (which again, I absolutely see that he has).

[miller31time]

If we don't land the #1 pick, then I'd be open to trading down from #3 or so to #8 or so while picking up a decent player in the process. If we traded Etan and the #3 for Mike Miller and the #7; and then drafted Curry, we'd be loaded next year:

PG Arenas/Curry/Critt
SG M.Miller/Stevenson/Young
SF Butler/McGuire
PF Jamison/Blatche/Songaila
C Haywood/McGee

It would be like adding an entire starting lineup to our current roster. We'd be adding Curry, Arenas, Miller, Blatche and Haywood; that's a playoff team by themselves!

The only problem is that it leaves us with lots of "good" players but no potential superstars to pair with Arenas. I'd prefer to work out a Bosh trade (or draft Griffin, of course). But if neither are possible, this is a decent backup plan.

Why Mike Miller? He's average-at-best defensively. Yes, he's a good all-around player on offense and rebounds/passes well, but our big need is defense.

If we're either trading or downgrading our pick, I want a defensive player with decent offense to be added to this team. Not the other way around.

That's why I proposed the Okafor trade in the trade thread. We downgrade our pick from top-3 to top-15 but get rid of two unnecessary players in Stevenson and Songaila and establish our interior defense as the undisputed best in the NBA.

[doclinkin]

Doc, I'd buy a ticket on your bandwagon - if Arenas wasn't here. I don't think you pay a guy 112 zillion dollars and then say - we're giving the keys to a skinny rookie. Those 3's should go way up next season - with Gil's return and hopefully better results at the 2 (Danny Green perhaps splitting time with Young). I love Curry's game, but I view him as a luxury item for the Wiz, and I couldn't get myself to use the high lotto pick on him.

Doc, I sorta agree with everything you said. Let me check. Blatche has a ton of potential. Check. Backcourt is obviously the most major concern. Check. There are no P.J. Browns or Zos left out there that we can reasonably trade for. Check.

Oh right no I realize I'm leaving out section two of the underpants gnome plan. Since I alluded to them in other threads.

I fully expect GMEG will recraft the team according to the blueprint of the incoming coach. When Haywood went down I'm a billion percent positive Ernie decided this year was a re-set year: let Eddie dig a hole, drop him, take our losses same as Riley did, showcase our vets & longterm properties for trades, then shop what we can get what we can use whatever assets we've got to drop contracts and draw new talent.

We saw already the Daniels for Critter swap. Picking up a retroactive first round draft pick in exchange for a distant 2nd rounder.

I fully expect Ernie to continue, to rebuild a more standard pro-set roster: front court load, defense, pick and roll players in the backcourt, shop for tag sale value.

Ernie loves reclamation projects who are temporarily undervalued by their team. I have no doubt he would love to land Elton Brand if he could. For isntance. He loves established vets over developing talents as well, he'll take a draft pick if he has to, but you rarely get instant value for them, he'd prefer to swap for a veteran. And his track record with first rounders is far more spotty than his 2nd round flyers, not expected to contribute. In part I think because he sees them as assets first and foremost, thus he listens to other teams/GMs opinions to guess if someone will trade for the player down the line. When he trusts his instincts, he does fine.

So, the missing piece is that I expect Ernie would prefer to dump a costly high first rounder for a productive veteran at a need position. He can dangle or package contracts of Jamison, Butler, or Blatche; with filler and role-players and bad contracts as part of the deal. He can flipflop hs pick for another teams later pick to add talent on the cheap, without and expectation of instant production.

BA: don't get me wrong, I'm agnostic on Blatche as well. He's improving, but may never reach the peak of his talent, no matter the coach. He might, I don't think he's of the same cut as the KFB. But might not. Actually I was talking about McGee (before I interrupted myself) though the paragraph could apply to either of them. We ain't trading McGee though, no chance.

So the Curry concept is predicated on a few things:
We ain't winning the #1 slot in the lotto. Odds are against it.
Gil and Haywood have to return this year for the team to know what it's got and what needs to be done about it.
We will win a few more games with them back, since other teams will be tanking late, and because we're pretty good, can sneak up on teams, oddly.
So maybe we won't have a top pick there either anyway.
Thus we trade down, where the draft ain't stocked with project/prospect Bigs.
We swap a veteran+pick for a high quality (two-way) vet at a need position + their later pick.

Thus at some point the 'best talent available' calculation lands us a quality point guard with crazy intangibles, but underfed, not yet hitting his man weight. Along with the veteran swap we worked out earlier. Because there's no denying that, no matter how much we paid Gil, we could use a back-up plan to get us points from the 1-spot, and get the ball to the bigs to help them develop too.

I'm also looking at defensive 2-guards, but the late-lotto talent isn't as stark a contrast as the difference between Stef Curry and everyone else. Best talent wise. Again, don't draft Sam Bowie, no matter how many Clydes you got.

[yungal07]

Sorry to break it to you Doc, but there's pretty much no chance EG takes Curry. He just traded for Critt and James, and has Arenas on ice. There's no minutes for the kid. More than likely he takes another forward or takes Harden since we're still not very good at the big guard.

[Ruzious]

I think the Wiz are trapped by the Gil contract. They almost have to assume he's coming back full speed. So figure who would be the ideal players to work around/with Gil. If Harden was a half step quicker, it'd be a no-brainer that he's the man. If Curry was Harden-sized, I be shopping for Curry power to season the lineup. As it is, I'm not married to any one answer. I would be open to trading Blatche and Young - though I don't really want a grizzled veteran in the JO or Camby mold. If you could turn them into a late lotto pick - and get Gerald Henderson there, I'd be a happy boy - getting Griffin/Hill with the 1st pick. And then get my favorite 2nd round role player - Green from UNC - to defend and honor.

I go after Henderson, because I think he's the ideal player to co-exist with Gil. He's fine with being a role player, but when Gil is out, he can play the star role. Griffin/Hill is the beef to blend in with Jamison at PF.

And then there's no worries about working around Blatche's and Young's toughness and basketball IQ. Everyone on the team has it. Combine that with talent, and the Wiz are watchable, winable, wunnerful.

Doc, I admit - I'm stuck looking inside the box - and that's probably why I have trouble directing the Wiz production that has Curry in a lead role.

[Dat2U]

I'm definitely open to seeing Blatche & Young getting traded as well. Especially Young, I just never been a fan of his game. I honestly think he's too one-dimensional to ever be more than instant scoring off the bench. There's even not much diversity to his game. It's basically a pull up fadeway jump shot created off the dribble. He doesn't really create contact or get to the line. He struggles to finish in the paint, he's not much of a passer, defender or rebounder. There are just too many holes there.

I would have been working the phones hard to deal him after his recent 4 game outburst. He'll have those moments when his jumper is flowing and he's scoring lights out but even then that's all he can do and he isn't going to continue to shoot that well all the time.

I see Caron, Andray & Nick as the big three in terms of tradeable assets. Caron combined with with either Andray or Nick should be able to fetch us something pretty sweet in a trade.

[nate33]

I'd definitely trade Young. He's just the wrong kind of player for this team.

I'm MUCH more reluctant to trade Blatche though. Honestly, his numbers are extremely good for such a young big man. He is posting a PER over 16 (over 17 if you ignore the first 9 games of the season) and he leads the team in on/off differential. That's nothing to scoff at.

Blatche's development has been slower than I'd like, but nevertheless, he is improving. I see no reason why he won't peak with a PER in the 18-20 range, while playing 30 minutes a night. That's about as good as Jamison has been for most of his career, only Blatche plays much better D.

It will be a mistake to trade Blatche unless it's as part of a package to get an all-star caliber big man.

[WizarDynasty]

lmao at wanting to trade two future allstars. Blatche is a beast. Quick first step, finishing ability, starting to show IQ level of songalia of both sides of the basketball.
Nick Young..starting to show the burst that Gilbert has and he has lockdown ability guarding shooting guards. I absolutely love blatche and Young. Javaris has awesome acceleration and strength..really looks like a gilbert with better passing and but less range on his shot. Actually Javaris looks like a young Arenas/B.DAvis. If we get Griffin, this team will honestly be a Dynasty and worthy to be the team of the president of the U.S. I was getting on N1 for his poor explosion and accleration and he has clearly improved tremendously..he is literally exploding pass people which is why he is getting the hoop with ease now and looking so slick hanging in air and relaasing the ball with his 40inch vertical while everyone else is falling back towards the earth...he is still hovering. Him and Blatche are going to be leaders of this team very very soon.
Javaris really has a powerful on court demeanor and its going to be interesting to see if its possible to keep this much talent at the guard positions..and throwing in a Griffin..shaking my head. Its going to be good times if stern allows us to get teh oklahoma boy. Getting the next Ak47 who can shoot off the dribble is not a bad secondary prize.

[nate33]

Javaris has awesome acceleration and strength..really looks like a gilbert with better passing and but less range on his shot.

Yeah, and I swim just like Michael Phelps, but with less speed.

[Ruzious]

I was getting on N1 for his poor explosion and accleration and he has clearly improved tremendously..he is literally exploding pass people which is why he is getting the hoop with ease now and looking so slick hanging in air and relaasing the ball with his 40inch vertical while everyone else is falling back towards the earth...he is still hovering. Him and Blatche are going to be leaders of this team very very soon.

It's probably the smoke from the explosion. The opponent is temporarily blinded.

Frankly, Young and Blatche should be arrested for literally breaking the law of gravity.