Long Term Plan? (merged threads)

[nate33]

The summer of 2010 is going to be very interesting. The following teams will have cap room for at least one max salary free agent, assuming all eligible superstars opt out.

Atlanta
Chicago
Cleveland
Dallas
Detroit
Houston
Memphis
Miami
Minnesota
New Jersey
New York
Oklahoma City
Phoenix
Portland
Sacramento
San Antonio
Toronto

That's 18 teams! By my reckoning, there will be at least 13 teams left out in the cold once the big name superstar free agents are locked up. Those 13 teams will have a ton of money, but they'll be forced to spend it on second tier free agents.

Unfortunately, Haywood and McGuire figure to be among those 2nd tier free agents. And everybody is going to know that our cap situation is tight so they're going to try to pick off our free agents first.

I've got a really bad feeling about this whole thing. It looks like the decision not to trade Jamison may cost us our two best defenders. I hope the 2009 season is worth it because the future is bleak. In 2010, we may well have the worst defensive team ever assembled: Arenas, Young, Butler, Jamison, McGee.

We have GOT to get Stevenson or Songaila (preferrably both) off this roster. And getting rid of Stevenson is going to be impossible thanks to his impending back surgery.

[LyricalRico]

By my reckoning, there will be at least 13 teams left out in the cold once the big name superstar free agents are locked up. Those 13 teams will have a ton of money, but they'll be forced to spend it on second tier free agents.

Unfortunately, Haywood and McGuire figure to be among those 2nd tier free agents. And everybody is going to know that our cap situation is tight so they're going to try to pick off our free agents first.

I've got a really bad feeling about this whole thing. It looks like the decision not to trade Jamison may cost us our two best defenders.

We're so screwed. I've stopped watching the games and if they can't get rid of some contracts I might not start again.

[Wizards2Lottery]

The summer of 2010 is going to be very interesting. The following teams will have cap room for at least one max salary free agent, assuming all eligible superstars opt out.

Atlanta
Chicago
Cleveland
Dallas
Detroit
Houston
Memphis
Miami
Minnesota
New Jersey
New York
Oklahoma City
Phoenix
Portland
Sacramento
San Antonio
Toronto

That's 18 teams! By my reckoning, there will be at least 13 teams left out in the cold once the big name superstar free agents are locked up. Those 13 teams will have a ton of money, but they'll be forced to spend it on second tier free agents.

Unfortunately, Haywood and McGuire figure to be among those 2nd tier free agents. And everybody is going to know that our cap situation is tight so they're going to try to pick off our free agents first.

I've got a really bad feeling about this whole thing. It looks like the decision not to trade Jamison may cost us our two best defenders. I hope the 2009 season is worth it because the future is bleak. In 2010, we may well have the worst defensive team ever assembled: Arenas, Young, Butler, Jamison, McGee.

We have GOT to get Stevenson or Songaila (preferrably both) off this roster. And getting rid of Stevenson is going to be impossible thanks to his impending back surgery.

[fifthstop]

With the economy in the tank and the cap going downward, any chance of there being and "Allan Houston Exception" in the next offseason or so?

[Ruzious]

Barely, if you had a picture of me, you'd see the all-knowing wisdom in my eyes, reeking... of sincerity and charm... and you'd never doubt a word that I post.

Dom's coming along well, but I'm not sure he's more than a solid role player - which is fine.

Time to put down the wisdom stick if your placing a ceiling on this kid. Right now, he doesn't have ceiling. He could become a CB with hope and more size and better D. Last I checked, that can get you to a few all star games.

And you could win $200 milion in the lottery. If you're predicting he'll play in a few NBA all-star games, I think you've taken a few too many sleeper holds.

[fishercob]

With the economy in the tank and the cap going downward, any chance of there being and "Allan Houston Exception" in the next offseason or so?

Very interesting thought.

[WizarDynasty]

tapscotts an idiot, he should be developing NY point guard skills and defending points since nick is going to playing with arenas in the line up. Instead of having nick score every night, he should have been developing Nick's cerebral game by having him play point and initiate the offense. Force nick to improve his ball handling skills under pressure and guard really fast point guards since we know arenas doesn't want to. Nick should be doing everything that deshaun did and deshaun guarded point guards with Arenas on the floor.

Tapscott can't get this concept through this head which is sad. Dom is nice and fill nicely defending s/g and s/f and good complement at the s/f spot with arenas. We should be developing Nick to defend the p/g and s/g so that NY is an asset to us when Arenas is on the floor. Critt is great at the point but Nick has just as much potential guarding p/g as Critt and making N1 defend p/g's now will make him that much more valuable with Ny, Dom, and arenas line up. Critt will be a good p/g..but nick has many intangilbles that take years to develop that Critt doesn't have. We really needed to develop NY on ball defense to relieve arenas on defense against quick point guards and allow arenas use his size advantage on offense.

NY is alot better next to arenas than Critt if N1 can learn to guard p/gs better than arenas just as deshaun is better at guarding p/gs. NY will give us more than deshaun on offense and forcing N1 to start at point guard will force N1 develop to increase dramatically on the non shooting aspect of the game. Maybe a better coach will see this relationship since tapscott can't. Yes DOm is in our longterm plans..but the fact that we aren't developing N1 point guard skills when we know arenas is a undersized s/g is absolutely incomprehensible. Dom is developing as a good point forward but had we been developing nick to play p/g like Hughes all this time, N1 would look great too. Blame Grunfeld and Tapscott for not making N1 closer to a p/g on defense and offense and not forcing N1 to develop into a more cerebral player instead of "instant offense off the bench which is what they seem him as now and are completely wasting one of the center pieces of what our dynasty would be with N1 defending the point and running the point with arenas on the floor. Critt starting on even getting minutes at the point..but Caron is never going to be fast enough to guard points guards...The entire season, Tapscott should have been forcing nick to make his feet faster by guarding point guards...but he has wasted those minutes on Mike James.

Had Tapscott had his head on straight, he would have developed Nick into p/g s/g to complement arenas on defense. Nick's future with the wiz is to play an improve version of Stevenson next to arenas. DMAC future is at the s/g s/f spot next to to arenas. Crit is best served backing up arenas and Nick. Hopefully Tapscott allows Nick to focus more on passing and defending points guards so that he can work well with arenas and his ability to defend point guards better than arenas will make him an asset next to arenas on the court. Let's hope tapscott realizes this soon rather than wasting away our 16th pick and a years worth of loosing. AGain, have nick focus less on shooting and more on defending the point guards and point guard ball handling skills. Right now, nick's handle is very poor, he has a very slow dribble that is very high off the ground. Whenever nick looses the ball very easily when nudged because his dribble is so high off the ground and nick doesn't have a rapid low center of gravity power dribble like Critt. so its going to be hard for Young to burst pass point guards. Having NY defend and go against point guards is the best way to develop NY from here on out. NY best role should be what larry hughes was next to arenas. Dom is better defending the s/f spot. Have NY improve his p/g defense skills and make him develop p/g handles. I would have NY starting at p/g before i would waste minutes on MIke James.

I've seen Young makes some great passes. I think the problem is that Tapscott and EG aren't pushing him to be a hybrid p/g s/g..which Nick would flourish. Right now he is only rewarded for scoring and if he isn't scoring, he doesn't get playing time. I foresee that with the right coach giving him minutes for being able to defend at the p/g spot as well as create easy opportunities for others on offense. NIck potential to guard p/gs on defense along with his potential to be a great spot of shooter once arenas drives makes more valuable than caron since caron can't guard p/gs and forces Arenas to p/g's exclusively if Dom is also on the court. So a front court of DOM, Butler, and Arenas forces arenas to always guard the point on defense. A line up of DOM, Young, and Arenas allows arenas to possible guard the s/g while Young guards the p/g giving boosting defense and not having much drop off offensively.
Having arenas guard p/g's exclusively when we know that arenas had hughes and D.S. guard p/gs shows why these line ups are important.
If Caron had the ability to effectively guard p/g's like a true s/g should, then we wouldn't have a problems with Arenas not "wanting to guard p/gs"

[nate33]

With the economy in the tank and the cap going downward, any chance of there being and "Allan Houston Exception" in the next offseason or so?

I was thinking the same thing.

Basically, the league has a real financial problem through the Summer of 2011 when a new CBA will be negotiated. Until then, teams are trapped into a pay structure that was negotiated when economic times were different. A lot of teams are going to go broke if they don't get some sort of relief. They can't just arbitrarily cut players' salaries in the midst of a negotiated contract, but perhaps they can work out some sort of exception where they can cut players and expunge them from salary cap and luxtax computations (while still honoring the terms of their contract).

[LyricalRico]

With the economy in the tank and the cap going downward, any chance of there being and "Allan Houston Exception" in the next offseason or so?

I was thinking the same thing.

Basically, the league has a real financial problem through the Summer of 2011 when a new CBA will be negotiated. Until then, teams are trapped into a pay structure that was negotiated when economic times were different. A lot of teams are going to go broke if they don't get some sort of relief. They can't just arbitrarily cut players' salaries in the midst of a negotiated contract, but perhaps they can work out some sort of exception where they can cut players and expunge them from salary cap and luxtax computations (while still honoring the terms of their contract).

Wow, i'd forgotten about that. But wasn't it emphasized that it was a "one-time" event? I don't think they go back to something like that.

Going to the economics of it, I think the owners' primary concern would be keeping salaries from growing. But if they were to do another "Allan Houston Exception" in 2010, I think it would actually drive salaries up since it would allow about every team a bidder in that big offseason market.

[nate33]

With the economy in the tank and the cap going downward, any chance of there being and "Allan Houston Exception" in the next offseason or so?

I was thinking the same thing.

Basically, the league has a real financial problem through the Summer of 2011 when a new CBA will be negotiated. Until then, teams are trapped into a pay structure that was negotiated when economic times were different. A lot of teams are going to go broke if they don't get some sort of relief. They can't just arbitrarily cut players' salaries in the midst of a negotiated contract, but perhaps they can work out some sort of exception where they can cut players and expunge them from salary cap and luxtax computations (while still honoring the terms of their contract).

Wow, i'd forgotten about that. But wasn't it emphasized that it was a "one-time" event? I don't think they go back to something like that.

Going to the economics of it, I think the owners' primary concern would be keeping salaries from frowing. But if they were to do another "Allan Houston Exception" in 2010, I think it would actually drive salaries up since it would allow about every team a bidder in that big offseason market.

All they need to do is to make the Allan Houston Exception applicable only with respect to the luxury tax threshold (rather than the salary cap). It would provide a means for over-the-luxtax-threshold teams to cut a player and avoid paying double. Any team receiving such relief would, by definition, be well over the salary cap and therefore not a player in the free agency market.

Let's call it the "Etan Thomas Exception".

To put it succinctly, the salary of any player cut using the Etan Thomas exemption would still count against the salary cap, but not against the luxury tax.

[LyricalRico]

Let's call it the "Etan Thomas Exception".

To put it succinctly, the salary of any player cut using the Etan Thomas exemption would still count against the salary cap, but not against the luxury tax.

Count me in!

[hands11]

Barely, if you had a picture of me, you'd see the all-knowing wisdom in my eyes, reeking... of sincerity and charm... and you'd never doubt a word that I post.

Dom's coming along well, but I'm not sure he's more than a solid role player - which is fine.

Time to put down the wisdom stick if your placing a ceiling on this kid. Right now, he doesn't have ceiling. He could become a CB with hope and more size and better D. Last I checked, that can get you to a few all star games.

And you could win $200 milion in the lottery. If you're predicting he'll play in a few NBA all-star games, I think you've taken a few too many sleeper holds.

No, what I said was there is no ceiling on him at this point. All he has done is show steady progress. If he continues and comes back from an off season having shown even more progress, why would anyone predict that to stop. It's not like he is athletically challenged. He isn't DSong. He isn't a N1on5 head case. As of today, there is no ceiling on him.

[pancakes3]

i'm going to go ahead and prick a pin in that thought bubble. there is a ceiling on dmac. i'll be generous and put the cap at 18/10. He can work as hard as possible for the rest of his career and he'll probably top out as a 15/8 guy. He's just not that special.

[ZonkertheBrainless]

The problem with that is that the luxury tax is a zero sum financial transaction -- the money is taken from one team and given to another team. You are not saving anyone any money by making luxury tax exemptions, quite the opposite, you are encouraging them to spend more. That's why the luxury tax is in there in the first place.

The real problem here is the unexpected decline in the luxury tax which unfairly penalizes teams who thought they were playing by the rules in the old economic conditions. It makes sense to have a one year bump in the luxury tax equal to the difference between what people expected and what actually happened ($6 million).

The problem really is that people get stuck with free agent money that they can't do anything with. Like the clippers, there were two max deal free agents on the market and three teams with max deal money available. Maybe there should be a "John Doe" contract clause -- if I can't find someone I want for a year, I sign an imaginary John Doe player for that amount of money for one year, and get to sign a free agent for that amount of money next year. John Doe counts for luxury tax calculations and everything. Giving owners the flexibility to back out of the free agent market if there's nothing there will help keep contracts down. Plus the owners should shorten the max length of contracts by a year or two, that's been a real killer for a lot of teams who get suckered into giving long contracts to players who you know will not be productive in the last few years of the contract, like AI.

[barelyawake]

i'm going to go ahead and prick a pin in that thought bubble. there is a ceiling on dmac. i'll be generous and put the cap at 18/10. He can work as hard as possible for the rest of his career and he'll probably top out as a 15/8 guy. He's just not that special.

Role player. We want a role player. We want several role players. We want two stars -- Arenas and the PF; one third option -- Caron; and the rest role players. This idea of teaming up Arenas with TMAC is ridiculous fantasy basketball junk. You want role players around Arenas. And yes, role players are damn special. You need certain guys to perform their function for a team to work. Raja Bell, Diaw and Barbosa were just as important as Nash and Amare to that team's record. Because if you plug-in most other players in those roles, they don't win nearly as many games. Ginobili is a role player. Hamilton is a role player. Prince is a roleplayer. Without them, those teams don't win championships. Rondo is a roleplayer. Now, how many Rondos are there in the league? Bowen is a roleplayer. How many Bowens? Glue guys are special. Tough vet leaders are special. There are more stars and franchise players than great glue guys. Hedo is a glue guy. Orlando would not have close to the record they have without him. Dom is a role player and a glue guy. And there may be five other guys in the NBA who does what he does.

[wizards-fan]

He can work as hard as possible for the rest of his career and he'll probably top out as a 15/8 guy. He's just not that special.

I'd agree with the first statement, but not the second. Depends on what his other stats are. If he averages say 15, 8, 4, 2, and 1.5 with great defense, that's a great player to have! I sort of picture DMac's ceiling as an AK47 type of player ... Kirilenko's career averages are 12.6ppg, 5.9rpg, 2.8apg, 2.2bpg, 1.5spg, 30% from 3-pt range. As a 2/3/4 hybrid defensive-stopper, those kind of numbers are excellent.

[Severn Hoos]

i'm going to go ahead and prick a pin in that thought bubble. there is a ceiling on dmac. i'll be generous and put the cap at 18/10. He can work as hard as possible for the rest of his career and he'll probably top out as a 15/8 guy. He's just not that special.

Sorry to do this, but I might have to prick that thought bubble as well. I did a very quick scan (not going out too far on a limb to vouch for absolute accuracy), but it looks to me like there were a total of 140 seasons in the past 10 years where a player averaged 15 & 8 or better while playing at least 50 games. (May be a few others that were caught in my 50-game screen, if they were traded midseason.) Let's call it 15 players per year. That's pretty much the elite players (Duncan, Garnett, Brand, etc.)

I would say that 15 & 8 would be very special. 12 & 7 with his defense would be outstanding. 10 & 6 would still be pretty good, especially given his draft position & salary.

[miller31time]

I'm not trying to hate on DMac or anything, but this board has a tendency to place an unrealistically high ceiling on our players based on a rather small sample size.

He'll probably be a good bench player on a good team or a decent starter on a decent team but I don't see him being anything more.

The difference is that, if I'm wrong, I'm pleasantly surprised. If you all are wrong, it's disappointment central.

[pancakes3]

15/8 is good. i'd be delighted if DMac puts up 15/8. i'd be ecstatic if he puts up 15/8. For his draft position and salary 15/8 is outrageously good. All i was saying with regards to "he's just not that good" was that he wasn't as good as player that had a "limitless ceiling" that hands11 had claimed.

rabble rabble rabble

[barelyawake]

Ariza plays 24 mins (starter's mins) on the team with the best record in the league. THAT'S the kinda of player Dom is. I don't think players are over hyped on this board. Blake was hyped. And he was worth it. Haywood was hyped. And he was worth it. Blatche was hyped. And he is worth it. Blatche is one of the best back-up PFs in the league. The question is whether he can start and lead a team. Who else was hyped without reason? Party John got some hype, but everyone knew his mentality was the problem. Young got little hype. Dixon got no hype. Jeffries might have gotten a little hype, but everyone punctuated it with, "if he stops making boneheaded mistakes and adds muscle." Jarvis never got hype. Kwame got hype for like two years before people called him out. I think people are a good judge of talent here (both in the draft and on our team). We know when we got someone good (or don't). Dom ain't AK. But, he is a very important piece to the puzzle.