Long Term Plan? (merged threads)

[pancakes3]

that was both encouraging and depressing at the same time. mostly depressing.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Butler wins the matchup against Hedo, Gerald Wallace, Marvin Williams, Moon/Beasley.

I have to quibble with this just a bit. Gerald Wallace OWNS us. He abuses our forwards like an ugly stepchild. Checkout his career best games, I bet half of them are against us.

That was my recollection too, but I looked it up and was surprised to see that the numbers tell a different story. Butler has a substantial advantage over Wallace in the head-to-head matchup. Butler averages 22.1 points to Wallace's 16.8 while posting significantly higher shooting percentages and assists. Butler routinely has big nights against Wallace, scoring 24 or more points in 6 consecutive matchups before scoring just 19 in their last meeting. Butler's Wizards have won 7 of the 11 matchups.

The numbers would be a bit closer if you adjusted for minutes played, but overall, Butler outperforms Wallace.

More than "a bit" closer when looked at per minute. Per minute it's either a draw, or a slight advantage to Wallace:

Code: Select all

Stat    GW      CB
MPG     31.8    39.5
PTS     21.1    22.4
REB     7.9     5.2
AST     2.2     3.1
STL     2.7     1.7
BLK     1.6     0.4
TOV     2.4     3.2
eFG     .518    .533
TS%     .563    .603
PPA     22.5    20.5



Butler shoots better and gets more assists, but Wallace gets more rebounds, steals and blocks. And Butler turns it over more.

[LyricalRico]

So does this mean I've finally got company on the "Get Blatche outta here" bandwagon?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'm on the "Blatche finally has a coach" bandwagon.

Flip is going to get the best out of Blatche because Saunders won't defer to Antawn Jamison on how to feel about Andray.

[nate33]

More than "a bit" closer when looked at per minute. Per minute it's either a draw, or a slight advantage to Wallace:

Code: Select all

Stat    GW      CB
MPG     31.8    39.5
PTS     21.1    22.4
REB     7.9     5.2
AST     2.2     3.1
STL     2.7     1.7
BLK     1.6     0.4
TOV     2.4     3.2
eFG     .518    .533
TS%     .563    .603
PPA     22.5    20.5



Butler shoots better and gets more assists, but Wallace gets more rebounds, steals and blocks. And Butler turns it over more.

It's worth noting that Wallace's minutes are lower partially due to foul trouble. Wallace fouled out of one of the games in just 33 minutes and committed 4 fouls in 4 other games. Butler committed 4 fouls just twice (both times in 44 minutes of action) and never committed 5 or more fouls.

[LyricalRico]

I'm on the "Blatche finally has a coach" bandwagon.

Flip is going to get the best out of Blatche because Saunders won't defer to Antawn Jamison on how to feel about Andray.

I do agree that having a coach that won't feed into the young vs old feud would help.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ila01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... can01.html

Career per-36 stats for LeMarcus Aldridge (top) and Andray Blatche (bottom), both listed at 6-'11 and 240 ish.

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G GS MP FG  FGA FG%  3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
179 220 7045 7.2 14.7 .487 0.0 0.2 .216 2.9 3.8 .764 3.1 4.6 7.6 1.5  0.8 1.2 1.5 3.2 17.3
238 64  4235 5.6 12.2 .464 0.1 0.6 .203 2.2 3.2 .692 3.2 5.6 8.8 2.2 1.1 1.9 2.5 5.1 13.6


Statistically, Blatche really suffers against Aldridge in two categories: Fouls and turnovers. Aldridge is a better FT shooter as well and shoots better from the field.

Blatche is a better rebounder, much better passer, and a better shotblocker than Aldridge.

Now consider that Aldridge was a lottery pick, #2 overall in 2006. Blatche was the 49th pick 2005 and he's signed for peanuts for a long time. Aldridge is one year older than Blatche and he played one season of NCAA ball. Aldridge also has three years of starting experience. Forget the time in the league when comparing these two players. Andray's less experienced IMO.

I believe now is the time to give Andray a legitimate look at minutes at PF. He needs to cut down on fouls and dumb plays. Flip Saunders will be bringing a new system entirely. I think if anything, Blatche is very underrated and should be playing more.

[nate33]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/aldrila01.html

Career per-36 stats for LeMarcus Aldridge and Andray Blatche, both listed at 6-'11 and 240 ish.

Code: Select all

G  GS  MP FG  FGA FG%  3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS 
179 220 7045  7.2 14.7 .487 0.0 0.2 .216 2.9 3.8 .764 3.1 4.6 7.6 1.5  0.8 1.2 1.5 3.2 17.3
238 64  4235  5.6  12.2 .464 0.1 0.6 .203 2.2 3.2 .692 3.2 5.6 8.8 2.2 1.1 1.9 2.5 5.1 13.6


Consider that Aldridge is one year older than Blatche and that he played one season of NCAA ball. Aldridge also has three years of starting experience.

Statistically, Blatche really suffers against Aldridge in two categories: Fouls and turnovers. Aldridge is a better FT shooter as well and shoots better from the field. Blatche is a better rebounder, much better passer, and a better shotblocker than Aldridge.

Now consider that Aldridge was a lottery pick, #2 overall in 2006. Blatche was the 49th pick 2005 and he's signed for peanuts for a long time.

I believe now is the time to give Andray a legitimate look at minutes at PF. He needs to cut down on fouls and dumb plays. Flip Saunders will be bringing a new system entirely. I think if anything, Blatche is very underrated and should be playing more.

Here are their yearly stats on a pace-adjusted per-36 basis:

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aldridge,  PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO   PF  TS%  PER
2008-09   18.7  7.7  2.0  1.0  1.0  1.5  2.6 .530 19.3
2007-08   19.1  8.2  1.7  0.8  1.3  1.8  3.4 .522 18.6
2006-07   15.2  8.4  0.6  0.6  2.0  1.2  5.0 .533 17.2

blatche,a  PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO   PF  TS%  PER
2008-09   15.3  8.1  2.5  1.1  1.6  2.5  4.5 .508 15.0
2007-08   13.6  9.4  2.0  1.2  2.5  2.5  5.7 .512 15.6
2006-07   10.6  9.9  2.0  0.9  1.7  2.5  4.9 .471 12.2
2005-06   13.1  7.7  2.0  1.0  1.4  2.4  7.3 .450 10.0

If you want to compare them at the same age, you would compare Blatche's last two seasons with Aldridge's first two seasons. But even then, Aldridge comes out on top. If you want to look at Blatche in the most optimistic light, you can look at his pace-adjusted numbers in the first half of the season before he was slowed by injury. Here they are:

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Player           PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO   PF  TS%  PER
blatche,andray  16.4  8.7  2.9  1.3  1.5  2.6  4.8 .532 17.6

Now he compares pretty well with Aldridge at the same age (2007-08 season).

[no D in Hibachi]

I'm on the "Blatche finally has a coach" bandwagon.

Flip is going to get the best out of Blatche because Saunders won't defer to Antawn Jamison on how to feel about Andray.

Good point, I think Flip is the best possible coach to maximize Blatche's talents. I have a feeling that Jamison will see a reduced role this year, maybe not as a 6th man, but definately no more 40+ mpg like he did last year. Blatche is already preparing for next year. He's working with Arenas this summer and by the time he gets into camp next year will be in great condition and be a more consistent player, remember he's only 22. We've been saying for years he is KG-lite and I'm sure Flip thinks the same. If Flip does nothing other than coach up Blatche so that he's a defensive player like KG his time in Washington will be more than justified.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

My point nate is Aldridge got drafted #2 and he's not that much better than Blatche.

Folks want to get rid of Blatche and I don't get it at all.

[fishercob]

I'm on the "Blatche finally has a coach" bandwagon.

Flip is going to get the best out of Blatche because Saunders won't defer to Antawn Jamison on how to feel about Andray.

Could be a confluence of factors that helps Blatche -- a new coach, Gilbert taking him under his wing/demanding better preparation from him, plus just simple maturation.

Here's hoping.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

[If you want to compare them at the same age, you would compare Blatche's last two seasons with Aldridge's first two seasons. But even then, Aldridge comes out on top. If you want to look at Blatche in the most optimistic light, you can look at his pace-adjusted numbers in the first half of the season before he was slowed by injury. Here they are:

Code: Select all

Player           PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO   PF  TS%  PER
blatche,andray  16.4  8.7  2.9  1.3  1.5  2.6  4.8 .532 17.6

Now he compares pretty well with Aldridge at the same age (2007-08 season).

Thanks, nate. You're showing my point better than I could.

Blatche compares favorably to Aldridge and to give him away wouldn't be too bright at all.

[closg00]

I'm on the "Blatche finally has a coach" bandwagon.

Flip is going to get the best out of Blatche because Saunders won't defer to Antawn Jamison on how to feel about Andray.

Agree %100, but "Player Development" under the Wizard org is horrendous, and we all know who heads that up I hope that Flip will have enough assistants to make a difference.

[LyricalRico]

Blatche compares favorably to Aldridge and to give him away wouldn't be too bright at all.

But it would feel GREAT!

[badinage]

This is a case of how numbers can lie.

Good stats from Splotch Blotch, but he doesn't really have an impact on the game.

A nice move here, a good pass there, and then -- he vanishes. Or: a good few sequences and then a bone-headed play (usually involving him overdribbling and pretending he's a guard) that takes us utterly out of our rhythm or stalls a run.

I'm not advocating trading him, but I'm not advocating holding him tight, either, if a good deal should come along.

My HOPE is that Saunders gets through to him and/or can figure out how to maximize his potential (which isn't as great as I'd once hoped: 15 and 8 is, I think, out of reach). Who knows? With a new coach who has a gift for offensive scheming, a summer that's long on work and short on whoring (okay, shorter), and the possibility of an increased role on the team, maybe Splotch Blotch will blossom next year.

(I love these per-48 minutes, by the way -- a stat based entirely on a huge supposition).

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

badinage, I think Blatche would get 15 and 8 easily if he played the minutes Jamison does.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Per X minute stats are not supposition unless the player got fewer than X minutes -- they're what the player did per minute multiplied by X. It's what the player averaged per X number of minutes. It would be supposition to assert that a player could average 18 points per game (for example) if he played 40 minutes a night because that's what the player averaged per 40 minutes when he was getting 22 minutes a game.

The whole reason for multiplying per minute stats by X (whether X is 48, 40, 36, 32 or whatever the multiplier prefers) is to make the numbers easier to look at and talk about. It's easier to think about and talk about Blatche averaging 15.1 points per 36 minutes than it is to think/talk about him scoring 0.4186 points per minute.

[daSwami]

badinage, I think Blatche would get 15 and 8 easily if he played the minutes Jamison does.

This might be true CCJ, but if he did, I feel like he would do it much less efficiently. That said, there's no way I could support trading Blatche this off-season unless one of the following occurs:

1 - we draft Griffin
2 - Etan is included in the deal, or
3 - we somehow manage to acquire another big.

As of today, (sadly) AB is our PF of the future, unless Pech transforms overnight into Dirk Nowitski or VDubb arrives on the scene playing like Karl Malone, AB is the guy. McGee is a 5 in my mind - I'm sure he can guard the 4 spot, but offensively, he's a 5.

God I hope we somehow land Griffin.

[no D in Hibachi]

badinage, I think Blatche would get 15 and 8 easily if he played the minutes Jamison does.

If he played as many minutes as Jamison AND was the primary offensive option he'd put up 20 & 11. Last season Jamison touched the ball nearly every time down the court and might have passed once for evey 8 shot's he took, and I think that's on the conservative side. Blatche would get his while playing better defense, and racking up 3-4 assists every night. After seeing how terrible this team is with Jamison as the focal point I'm inclined to throw Blatche out there and have the offense flow through him. It certainly can't be worse than it was last year.

[dobrojim]

not sure AB could play the minutes AJ does without fouling out

I'm definitely in the middle btw let's trade AB for a ham sandwich
yesterday and let's stick him in AJ's starting role. I'd be happy
if he just wound up being a solid 3rd big coming in at either PF/C
for 20 min a night. As long as he remembers he's 6-11 and plays
like it rather than trying to prove how skilled he is. Rebound,
defend and dunk the ball. KISS.