MJG wrote:JWizmentality wrote:mhd wrote:We needed to lose this game. Ugh, We have competititon for the worst record.
You do know that having the worst record gives us very little chance at landing Blake Griffin right? Our position is fine, and could be improved a bit.
If you were dying, and the doctor said that medicine X would give you a 25% chance to live and medicine Y an 18% chance, you wouldn't say "Eh, just grab whatever is on the lower shelf", right? Odds may be slim no matter where we land, but why not try for the best of those slim odds?
Or worse, a 4.3% chance. We're in a dogfight to the bottom with ~6 other teams. From where I sit we're looking at maybe 4 win-threat games in our last 18. Our current win% matches that. That narrowly dodges the 'worst wiz/bullets/packers/zephyrs ever' record, saving the players from infamy. But not bad.
Sacramento has 7 winnable games left (us included) but they're really really horrible and have no hope for the future other than the lottery. I see nobody catching them. The tiny slim ray of sunlight is that they are deep-ish in the frontcourt, and might see Lil' Ricky as a better prospect. On the other hand their talent evaluation staff is pretty good. They make solid picks on guys nobody else has paid much attention to. Not likely they pass on Blake. They might shop it for a minute just to see what they could get, but that opens it to everybody, I doubt we could offer a better deal, and I bet they'd still take Blake.
The Clippers are now ahead of us in the race to the bottom. I see five winnable games for them. But they're miserable. I've never seen such a collection of me-first shotjackers. Sterling just chewed out Al Thornton as a lazy/selfish player, but they've got Mr 'own-goal rebound' Ricky Davis. None of their players wants to be there. Best case scenario is that a few of them put up good games out of desperation to look tradeworthy, but they'd have to all string a few games together at the same time to make it work. No chance. I'm guessing they have us beat cold.
Memphis. They can't rebound, but the Gay/Mayo show (ew...) should keep them afloat. They're not desperate for that top pick either since they have a swarm of picks. More to the point, they are so far under the cap that they look to profit from other teams luxury-tax issues for years to come. They'd be trying to sell the team if there were a viable buyer, prob'ly, but until then they've stumbled into the same low-overhead business model that Don Sterling used to thrive on. Gather young talent, coast on whatever you have, give no one a real contract, make a little money even if you lose. They can't piggyback on someone else's arena, and don't have the spillover fanbase that the LA area can command (nor TV revenue etc) but still, low-overhead works fine as a start. They may remain where they are no radical tanking needed.
OKC. This squad has talent and is winning games they ain't supposed to. Young players learn, young talent learns to win. Any team with a solid Point has a chance to win. Their on-court talent won't deliberately drop games even when the frontoffice is trying to hold out the top players, encourage them to take their time. They've got a new fanbase and can afford to lose, because honestly what else is there to do in Oklahoma. Well, obviously watch Blake Griffin... They would love to have him. Still have to convince they youngsters to buy in to the loss plan. Especially since it means displacing solid teammate Jeff Green. On the other hand they have 3-5 winnable games. Tougher schedule than many of the bottom feeders.
Minny has 5 win-threat games. But they're miserable without Big Al. They'll drop like a stone. Didn't have a big-man even with Harrington. That's the saving prayer. I suspect they'd trade down a spot to take Thabeet, maybe deal Harrington/Love for a backcourt upgrade.
Golden State though as a dark horse only has 3 winnable games left. And fun fun fun chemistry issues, and Don Nelson doesn't even bother to coach anymore. They're a strong candidate for ultimate suck.
As for the Wiz. Rock and a hard place. We've been trying to keep Gilbert out, Haywood also knows the plan. But it would be nice to sell tickets for next year, also to see what we have left and recruit a decent coach. If we had a healthy lead in the tanking, I'd bet we would have seen Gilbert by now. But there's way too much competition down here in the sewer.
That said, to sell tix I suspect we'll see Gilbert with 10 games to play at the latest. Thing is we have two late-season tilts with Cleveland. I suspect the team would love to make a good showing there just to show the wink-wink to our local fans that if healthy we may have a prayer of success, so re-up your season ticket plans right now... I'd bet Gil will want to tune up before then, 5 games at least.
If the Cavs had clinched home court etc they might rest to let us win since most of our tanking competition is in the West and if we pick up Griff we may become an actual threat. But they're neck and neck with the Celts, so they'll help out and actually try to kick our ass both times. There's a loss to avenge anyway.
Still, as usual with Gil on court (or off) you never know what will happen, we won't win the Cavs games (prob'ly) but the tune-up games he might surprise a squad. Never ever can predict. What's dangerous here is that we have a prayer of hope even without that top pick, and thus may accidentally win a couple games, not care about the pingpong ball odds.
That gap between 25% and 4.3% is large. And all lottery teams have a chance to win those top 3 slots. Which means if all goes wrong and the wheels fall off this tank cart we could pick as late as tenth... And in this year especially the gap between number one and number ten is a bottomless chasm.
So. That's where we are.
that dude is on somthing
