What Should the Wizards Should Do with the 5th Pick?

[Wizenheimer]

Again...why would Rubio slide to #3? Just because he doesn't want to play in Memphis doesn't mean they can't pick him and trade him themselves. Whatever they would get in return for Rubio would be more valuable than Thabeet IMO. Not to mention that other teams that REALLY want Rubio us arranging a deal with OKC, would try to trade up to #2 so that they aren't competing with us. See what I'm saying?

So if we REALLY want Rubio, we shouldn't be calling OKC. We should be calling Memphis. Why am I the only one that understands this?

I think this is a good point. However, one thing that might change the thinking are the terms od Rubio's buyout. I read elsewhere that before June 30, his buyout is 4.5 million and after that it escalates to 5.7 million (or numbers similar), so negotiations for the buyout should commence early. And the team that Rubio plays for has a recent history of re-negotiating a buyout clause for a player that wants to go to the NBA.

Just last year, Jovenhtut renegotiated Rudy Fernandez's contract so he could join Portland. They cut his buyout amount almost to nothing. Of course, Portland's GM, Kevin Pritchard was negotiating that situation, and he personally knew the management of Rudy's team, since Pritchard had played in the Spanish League and maintained contacts.

[pancakes3]

there's some rule saying the NBA team can only contribute 500k to the buyout. the rest has to come out of pocket for rubio which would probably be paid in installments throughout his rookie contract.

again, does anybody know why Rubio isn't bound by the 1 year removed clause?

[dobrojim]

I wouldn't be that upset if we keep the pick.

someone just said something about taking the best SG. While I
would definitely say that SG is our weakest position, I wouldn't
hesitate to take a PG either. Or Blair (I'm with CCJ on this kid).
I like Blair, Curry and Lawson each alot. I'll concede they all
have bust potential but they also have solid potential in
the other direction as well.

Harden I'm still not sold on. I watched him 5-6 times before
the tourney. The intangibles were there but I'm not sure how
much else. NBA SGs generally have to be uber-athletic or
unbelievably good shooters. Harden didn't show me either.
And that was before he REALLY disappointed in the tourney.

[AgentOvechkin08]

I think the reason that Memphis wont take Rubio is not because of his agent's threats, but because they are really high on Thabeet, according to a couple sources.

If we were able to do Blatche + 5th pick for Rubio, that would almost make up for the Lottery.

[LyricalRico]

I think the reason that Memphis wont take Rubio is not because of his agent's threats, but because they are really high on Thabeet, according to a couple sources.

They want to spend the #2 (and the near-MLE salary that comes with it) on a guy to ride the bench behind Marc Gasol? Nah, I'm not buying that. Their biggest needs are at PF and PG (not that Conley isn't any good, but I don't think he's the right fit with Mayo/Gay). Thabeet doesn't give them either of those things.

[AgentOvechkin08]

I think the reason that Memphis wont take Rubio is not because of his agent's threats, but because they are really high on Thabeet, according to a couple sources.

They want to spend the #2 (and the near-MLE salary that comes with it) on a guy to ride the bench behind Marc Gasol? Nah, I'm not buying that. Their biggest needs are at PF and PG (not that Conley isn't any good, but I don't think he's the right fit with Mayo/Gay). Thabeet doesn't give them either of those things.

Well that is not what a lot of draft sites are saying, even ESPN. They want to get better defensively and add size. They say Memphis is really high on Thabeet because of what he can bring defensively. Its not just Chad Ford who is saying that but others. Plus Marc Gasol is good enough offensively to be a PF, look at his brother Pau he is a 7'1 PF and pretty darn good at it.

[LyricalRico]

I think the reason that Memphis wont take Rubio is not because of his agent's threats, but because they are really high on Thabeet, according to a couple sources.

They want to spend the #2 (and the near-MLE salary that comes with it) on a guy to ride the bench behind Marc Gasol? Nah, I'm not buying that. Their biggest needs are at PF and PG (not that Conley isn't any good, but I don't think he's the right fit with Mayo/Gay). Thabeet doesn't give them either of those things.

Well that is not what a lot of draft sites are saying, even ESPN. They want to get better defensively and add size. They say Memphis is really high on Thabeet because of what he can bring defensively. Its not just Chad Ford who is saying that but others. Plus Marc Gasol is good enough offensively to be a PF, look at his brother Pau he is a 7'1 PF and pretty darn good at it.

Pau is also a string bean. He doesn't play PF because of his offensive skills. He plays PF because he's not strong enough to be a legit center and he knows it, which is why he takes so many jumpshots.

Marc Gasol is not a PF. He's a bruiser who earns his living in the paint. His nickname is "The Tank" for crying out loud. Asking him to play outside the lane to make room for Thabeet would be a mistake IMO. If they really want Thabeet, they'll have to end up trading Gasol (which would also be a mistake IMO).

[AgentOvechkin08]

Good Point about Pau, but its not that I disagree with what you are saying, I think Memphis should take Rubio but there are numerous reports that the guy running the show in Memphis loves Thabeet and wants to bring in defensive presence. I mean the guy is a phenomenal shot blocker. But passing on Rubio would be a mistake. I cant say what they would do if they drafted Thabeet. But because a guy is drafted high does not mean he has to start, Michael Beasley came off the bench, and Thabeet could too for Gasol.

[Benjammin]

Today (tomorrow will likely be different) I feel that the most likely scenario is:

1. Trading down (getting a lower pick) for cap relief/and/or a somewhat better player than the Wizards give up.
2. Trade the pick outright with another player(s) for a better player(s)
3. Stay at 5 and select?
4. Move up to pick up Rubio.

[fifthstop]

This is just a guess, but I'm thinking MJ and ET are being saved until the deadline, unless the "right"--and that means REALLY good--deal comes along.

At the deadline, the wiz will certainly be in the playoff mix (if not world beaters) and will know where their weaknesses are. Other teams will be falling out of the mix and looking to find salvation in 2010. The the wiz strike and do so from a position of strength ala Detroit. Its shaping up quite the same as Detroit actually (hopefully w/o the Darko part).

So I see two things happening:
a. trade the pick and one of the DS's for a quality 6th man, like an in-his-prime-or-younger AD. Won't take much really, just an upper echelon but slightly undervalued MLE type. Or simply draft a young-but-NBA-ready-version thereof. Harden perhaps.
b. look at the deadline to acquire a piece that takes them from the 6-10 seed range up to the 2-3 seed range.

That's a roster that's a really solid 6-7 playoff rotation deep, with potential studs filling slots 8-12. Only one of them needs to pan out and probably 2-3 will. Great in the short term and won't be awful again for a really long time to come.

Totally big-picture post, but I think that's the philosophy.

[fifthstop]

And forget about trading the 5th for cap relief. Why on Earth would an owner who is playing chess on the beach with death (and who has said over and over that he's not afraid of the lux tax) do that? We're not looking at a 5-year plan here. It's going to be a 1-2 year plan. Flat out and all-in.

This is Abe's club and EG's job is to formulate the best strategy to meet Abe's goals, not some abstract vision of creating the best hypothetical NBA franchise (or even the most profitable one at this juncture).

[closg00]

I guess this is our general draft discussion thread also.

I see that the Wiretap says that Nick Calathes is going Euro, not surprising. Had this not been such a
PG-heavy draft, he could have gotten a first-round guarantee. I wonder how this might affect Ty Lawson & Eric Maynors ranking?

[doclinkin]

I guess this is our general draft discussion thread also.

I see that the Wiretap says that Nick Calathes is going Euro, not surprising. Had this not been such a
PG-heavy draft, he could have gotten a first-round guarantee. I wonder how this might affect Ty Lawson & Eric Maynors ranking?

Pissed off about that. And yeah, seems like it might affect his ranking if a team with two picks thought they could pick up a back-up plan at PG with their late pick now decides the pool is more thin at PG and they'll need to stock up earlier. Shame though. Still possible to draft him in the 2nd round and stash his rights. But when/if he blows up in Greece he'll cost more to bring back probably since the round 2 guys can negotiate their own salary.

[pancakes3]

it makes sense. he's greek i think. at least he played with their u-19 team last summer.

[tkunit]

I don't like the idea of sending mcgee to the thunder, but what about blatche? can't they absorb the extra salary since they are under the cap. I realize this is late but i've been thinking about it a lot since I read it from not so good ford.

[Rafael122]

From Hoopsworld, I'm not sure how legit they are but here it is:

As the news came out this morning from our friends at Draft Express, that Ricky Rubio was upset at the way the NBA draft lottery turned out, a rumor quickly followed behind that the Memphis Grizzlies would look to trade the pick rather than use it themselves. While Grizzlies GM Chris Wallace has been openly interested in Rubio, we're being told that the Grizzlies would rather have the $3 million they'd likely get from a team looking to move up, as well as a slightly lower pick.

Read the rest here: http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=12721

[LyricalRico]

Based on that it looks like MEM would settle for cash as the only sweetener to come off the #2 spot. I wonder how far down they'd be willing to go if somebody took Jaric off their hands. Would they go all the way down to #9 if the Raptors agreed to take on Jaric? Toronto gets Rubio and the Grizz could take Blair at #9.

[Rafael122]

Kevin Love was the 5th pick on the '08 draft. His first year salary was $3.1 million.

Wizards give them the 5th pick plus $3 million in cash for the 2nd pick. The 3 million would be enough to cover whomever they pick, it would be enough to cover their first year salary.

I think if its true, you'd have to do it. Absolutely.

I'd trade the 2nd round pick + Stevenson or someone like that. They can mix and match Critter/Rubio/Arenas at the 1 and 2 spot with Young starting. Or McGuire even.

Rubio gives us tons of lineup options.

[Benjammin]

Kevin Love was the 5th pick on the '08 draft. His first year salary was $3.1 million.

Wizards give them the 5th pick plus $3 million in cash for the 2nd pick. The 3 million would be enough to cover whomever they pick, it would be enough to cover their first year salary.

I think if its true, you'd have to do it. Absolutely.

I'd trade the 2nd round pick + Stevenson or someone like that. They can mix and match Critter/Rubio/Arenas at the 1 and 2 spot with Young starting. Or McGuire even.

Rubio gives us tons of lineup options.

3 million is a small price to pay to correct the lottery's results. However, I think that Memphis/OKC will have better offers than simply cash. If the Wizards can do it for cash, it works for me.

[DallasShalDune]

If we can get Rubio for that cheap, I'm calling miracle. Memphis can get way more than that. I'm thinking they probably will get more than that, too.